The Goods wrote:
I have been reading this forum for years and finally felt like I needed to chime in on this subject.
This new world order in which we see the P5 conferences moving to, is going to continuously keep advancing until the "Jones" have all caught up with each other. Most of the expansions have been reactionary moves based on rumors and potential losses. I.E. The ACC grabbing Pitt and Syracuse for fear of loosing schools to the B10 when the talk was that they were going to grab five schools including three from the ACC. Also, at that time the Pac 10 was working on adding the Texhoma three plus Colorado. In the end, the Texhoma deal fell through, the Pac settled on Utah and Colorado, the B10 ended up only taking one (Nebraska) and the ACC was left with too many mouths to feed. Now I will get to my point.
The Pac-12 is now behind the curve and needing to catch up with it's two biggest competitors for college football dominance (B10 and SEC). They now need to add at least two more and may make the move to 16 first. I am sure there has been continuing discussions between Texas and the Pac that if the revenues are not what Texas expected from LongHorn that a move would be eminent. The same is probably true with Oklahoma as well, but I think they would rather stay in the east then have games two time zones over. Oklahoma will try to do what A&M did and move to either the B10 or the SEC and most likely the SEC with Ok. State. for 16. We are now left with Texas and TT as the only true viable options for the Pac out of the Big 12. Kansas is not going to the Pac, no way no how. They are B10 bound. With all that being said I only think they will take Texas and here is why.
The move right now is to capture TV dollars first and foremost and all of the conference moves have been to get bigger and better TV contracts. All this discussion about taking Boise State (112 TV market), Baylor (94 TV Market) etc. is ridiculous. It's not going to happen no matter how good they are. Their TV markets suck and their fan bases are not large enough to overcome that and that is why they will never get a sniff. When the Pac makes their next move it will be for Texas first and they will add TV markets as needed to keep up the SEC and B10. My guess is they will either grab UNM (44 TV Market) or UNLV (42 TV Market) to couple with Texas due to the size of the TV market and the fact it would be a market not currently captured by the Pac. If the move is to get to 16 then the top four are in order.
4. San Diego State
Although San Diego is a larger TV market (28) than both Las Vegas and Albuquerque-Santa Fe it is repetitive for the coverage they have in California and the fan base is non-existent in comparison to UCLA, SC, Cal or Stanford. Those four schools have larger fan bases in SDSU's back yard than SDSU ever will. The get for the Pac in adding SDSU is another California trip to appease UofA, ASU and Colorado. It would guarantee every non-Cali school a chance to recruit the hot bed that is California once a year. If they go to 16 my guess is that the conference would break out like this:
North - UW, WSU, UO, OSU, Stanford, Cal, Utah, UCLA
South - ASU, UA, Texas, UNM, UNLV, SDSU, Colorado, USC
They would add protected crossovers to protect rivalries and keep the nine game schedule so that you rotate through the other six on the opposite side. Obviously this is all speculation, but this is my best guess based on what I have seen transpire over the last 10 years.
Sorry to burst your bubble on your first try on this site, I just do not see the University of Texas in any scenario in the Pac 12. That ship had one chance and sailed into the western sunset without getting Texas on board.
Texas is not going to join a western based league while its primary requiting rival Texas A&M is getting all that eastern exposure in the SEC.
The Pac 12 has always been at an disadvantage when its comes to time zones especially during the critical night games that are prime time TV. The SEC thrives on night games and Texas is not going to allow a school in its home state to have any more advantage than possible and joining the Pac 12 without Texas A&M would be disastrous for the University of Texas.
The Pac 12 also has a major disadvantage with eastern media biased and most Pac 12 officials will attest to this facts. University of Texas is not going to want any part of this while its chief rival is in the eastern and central based time zones and media markets.
Since ESPN basically is running both SEC Network and LHN, it would be very easy to just combine both someday if necessary for Texas to make a move into the SEC someday.
If Texas ever has any plans to leave the Big 12 which is highly doubtful as the University of Texas has a good thing in the Big 12 along with its LHN, the SEC would be the only option I can see the school making a move that would be beneficial and practical at the same time.
We all by now can stop with all the academic concerns that Texas may have with the SEC as this is just not the primary reason a school makes a move into another league. Likewise we can stop with the Texas is afraid to join the SEC.
As long as college conference networks thrive so will the fate of the LHN. I do not see Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, WVU, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State having many options in the future for conferences with cable networks and those teams will keep the Big 12 in tack and provide Texas and the LHN a safe home for the long term future.
Assuming someday the U of Kansas and the U of Oklahoma would attract the interest of the conferences with networks and bolt the Big 12 for the Big Ten and its conference network benefits, I do not see any league including the Big Ten bringing along Kansas State and Oklahoma State just for the fun of it.
Worse case scenario the Big 12 would simply reload with a couple teams such as BYU to reach 10 and carry on without Kansas and Oklahoma.
Again I just do not see the state of Kansas population as a big draw for conference cable networks. Ditto with the state of Oklahoma especially taking two schools from this state.
Based on this strong prediction, I do not see Texas being a candidate for any other league and most likely none of the other current 9 Big 12 members as well.
If the Pac 12 wants to expand in the future, the most likely targets would have to be the MWC schools. I just do not see the Pac 12 schools wanting or needing to do this so the Big 12 and Pac 12 to me are pretty much set for the future.
Maybe BYU with its own tier 3 network would fit very nicely into the Big 12 strategy and may someday find its way into the Big 12. Regardless, BYU most likely will never be considered for Pac 12 membership needing many liberal college votes to gain support.
Other than BYU, is there any non power five school in the west worth expansion of the Pac 12. UNLV are you kidding me! SDSU would bring no additional markets a compete with current Pac 12 schools including the Arizona schools for the California requiting benefits. Boise State has no market for the Pac 12 to speak of and Utah State would be just one more mouth to feed.
Which Pac 12 schools are going to vote to bring in extra competition of additional MWC schools. It was very difficult to get the old Pac 10 interested in expansion and only the so called Texhoma helped get everyone interested in expansion in the first place which eventually lead to Utah and Colorado getting an invite. Since the Texhoma ship has sailed, what interest is going to persuade the current Pac 12 schools to expand when only MWC schools are available for the taking.
Sorry I just do not see the Pac 12 expanding in the very long future.