With that new TV channel, would the Big Ten be more apt to host to go for a fb championship game, or less? Such a game, ESPN or another would televise. Agree, it would be Notre Dame to add or sit tight a lot longer. While new markets are sought, most conferences also want to incorporate all the very top schools within their established footprints if expansion is intended.
I think the new TV channel removes nearly all of the incentives to go to 12 teams and have a FB championship game. Before, you could make the argument that the additional money that the Big Ten would earn from a FB championship game alone would justify inviting a team other than Notre Dame. Now, however, the addition of the FB championship money probably wouldn't be enough to compensate for having to split the TV channel money with a 12th member. To me, that really means the Big Ten won't add anyone that can't add a significant amount of revenue on its own above and beyond a FB championship game, which pretty much leaves Notre Dame as the only viable candidate.
In to your addition to your post look at it from another direction. First how much would a championship game be worth with a 12th member and figure the split between 12 members. Next if the championship game knocks a potential conference member from a second BCS bid the conference would loose at least $8 million in additional income. Using a 2006 BCS distribution schedule sample, the first BCS representative would receive a base share from a BCS bowl of $14,866,666 and a second BCS member would receive a base BCS share of $7, 955,556 or a total base share of $22,822,222 of BCS money for an eleven member conference. Since this a base number the ending revenue would be higher. Who really needs ND under this scenario, except the BE.
By the way Nova doesn't have to move up either for the BE. They already get a share of BCS money. Using the same BCS sample Nova gets a whopping 1/12th 0f $225,000 for being in the 1-AA -Atlantic 10. Why go to the expense of a new stadium when they are already in the BIG BCS MONEY. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;) ;) ;) 8-) 8-) 8-)