I agree with your point, Lash, that the Big East needs a contingency plan. The Big East should be covering its flanks, because losing another high profile school would be a serious blow.

I see some sports writers/bloggers believe the Big East would be dissolved if one more major school left. I do not agree that necessarily would be the case. It would, perhaps, force a split with the bb schools if the fb schools wanted more than one replacement. With the regular season now 12, and all the other BCS conferences except the PAC 10 are going to 12 members, the Big East is hanging in the danger zone sticking with "8" in fb and having to join a mass of others for bb season.

The Big East expansion fb options are from eastern C-USA teams unless they look at someone in the modest MAC or Sunbelt. They already tried cutting a deal with the academies, and Notre Dame will not commit. Is UMASS going to upgrade? Should a mistake be declared, and Temple be invited back?

The Big East has good schools, and helped make some former members such as Miami and VPI even more distinguished. It's their hybrid design that makes other BCS conferences feel they are plucking opportunities. The Big East is stuck in their original mentality, but in all fairness, a bb conference was its founding.

I really believe, for all concerned, the BE fb schools need to split with the bb ones. There are plenty of schools here for two very fine conferences on the bb side, and both could expand with types that may fit the conference profiles of each.

The writer who said the C-USA schools were beneath the academic and other standards of Syracuse is a bit lame on the point. Sure 'Cuse, Rutgers, and Pitt are AAU participants and long established; but remember, the Big East expanded already with Louisville, Cincy and South Florida. And wasn't WVU not an ACC/Big 10 target, in part, because their academic profile was not favored?

The eastern CUSA schools are not Dukes' and Vandys' or Ivy Leagues or state flagships; but places such as Alabama-Birmingham, for example, have a nationally reputable Medical School/Center. Even ECU has a relatively new medical school. UCF gets a lot of revenue from the Disney sprawl. Not saying any one of these particular schools is necessarily the top choice; but eastern CUSA is basically what is available in terms geography and future potential.

I see from a number of articles/posts/blogs, there is a growing frustration with Notre Dame. The Big Ten obviously sees this. For the Big East, has accommodating Notre Dame for bb been worth it, knowing it has impacted the Big East's conference design, and been a part in constraining the football side of things?

The BE FB schools are now on notice. They BETTER get their contingency plan in place.

Obviously, the Big Ten wants Notre Dame. If Notre Dame would just go join as #12, NO PROBLEM. I don't see Notre Dame doing it. Their football program is good, but currently not elite. Yeah, yeah, I know they have a huge following, but honestly, the 9 straight bowl losses speak volumes. Notre Dame could very likely become an also-ran (with spikes of success), but they will not perennially dominate the Big Ten (just ask Penn State !).
Perhaps if the Big ten Network really takes off, they could offer Notre Dame monies comparable to the NBC deal, after all - the Big Ten Schools get a lot of money, based on their equal shares of several network TV deals + tie-ins to about 7 bowl games. So the money might not be the huge obstacle that some think it is.
There may be long-term pressure for Notre Dame to join a conference, depending upon the way the BCS gets re-structured over time. That MAY be the Big Ten's leverage. If I had to bet, I think Notre Dame will decline any invitation.

SOOOO - I think that leaves the Big East FB schools + a few Big 12 North schools as the Big Ten #12 candidates:
To try to stay somewhat contiguous, the candidates would be (in no particular order):
Syracuse (Upstate NY, good academics, football is down lately)
Rutgers (NJ, NYC market to some degree, flash-in-the-pan ?)
Pitt (great academics, so-so FB lately, overlap with PSU ?)
West Virginia (great following in a small state, academic issues ?)
Louisville (urban school with tremendous sports LATELY)
Iowa State (rivalry with Iowa, small popul / overlap with Iowa)
Missouri (a new state, decent population, so-so football)
Nebraska (great following in a small pop. state, a bit far west).

Since we are all outsiders, none of us truly know how to handicap this. The Big East can not afford to lose one of it's core teams. The Big 12, could easily invite Colorado State, Utah, or New Mexico as a replacement.

The best thing that could happen for the Big East football 8 is for Notre Dame to get picked off. The worst thing would be to have one of the 8 FB schools lured to the Big Ten. What could they do to cover themselves ? Have a meeting right now (minus Notre Dame and the BB schools) and contemplate commiting to a HUGE exit fee. It is probably not IMMEDIATELY necessary to split and form an all-sports conference along with some combo of Memphis / UCF / ECU / UAB / Marshall / Temple / UMass / Ohio, etc. but until they do, there is NO STABILITY !

If they sit back on their heels and wait for 2003 to happen to them all over again, they have nobody to blame but themselves.

sec03, your preaching to the choir on what direction the Big East should take for the future. I am 100 percent in favor of splitting from the basketball schools. I am just not convinced the Big East schools would take this approach.

I totally agree with you on many unfair assumptions made toward schools that you really don't want, yet need an excuse to not include in expansion talks. WVU is a great example, if there were a major market in that state, the school would be in the SEC or the ACC already. This school is one of the best all sports programs that generate revenue in the east including the important point of fan support.

As for the Big East losing BCS, I do not see this any longer an immediate concern. Not to imply that you can survive solely on a couple successful football seasons, the Big East is in really good standing with the BCS. Primary reason is the BCS is about TV interest and bowls. The Big East is getting fantastic exposure and publicity on this front. The Big East is quickly gaining national exposure in this season.

What happens if WVU wins the national title this year as some pre season magazines are forecasting? It is not out of the question. What happens if Louisville or South Florida win another BCS bowl for the third year in a row?

Unlike the ACC expansion that went after 1/3 of the old Big East, the Big Ten will not cause a fatal blow by taking Syracuse or Rutgers.

Both of these schools are not really holding up the Big East football side which is really the driving force behind the BCS.

I do agree there are lots of option for the football schools if they decide to split, however, just dont think they will take that approach.

The latest Big Ten rumors may cause some rethinking of a potential split.

What will probably happen is the following.

If the Big East lose another school, it may cause more concern that breaking away would hurt the image status of remaining major conference.

An important fact is once the Big Ten expands to 12, the Big East has no major conferences in the east that could potentially cherry pick in the future.

I just do not see any conference that is already BCS expanding beyond 12 football schools. It really hurts the basketball format which generates lots of revenue as well.

A final point is once Big Ten expands to 12, Notre Dame is committed to the Big East for a very long time.

The football schools may just decide to take a Central Florida as a replacement and keep the status quo.

Very important point is that Syracuse or Rutgers will be leaving a better basketball conference to join the Big Ten. I don't think anyone can argue the Big East has become the potential to be the best basketball league year in and year out for the future.

With that said, I tend to agree with others on this thread that Central Florida is probably the best candidate to replace Rutgers or Syracuse should either school decide to leave.

Central Florida has been spending BCS type money on facilities and is in a fast growing market that is great for requiting.

The other benefit is all current schools could travel for the Thursday and Saturday games by making one trip to Florida and taking care of two away games at the same time with the same trip. Very important for travel expenses.

While a split may be better from our point of view, I only see the schools replacing a potential defector to the Big Ten.

This school does appear to be Central Florida.

Actually the Big East could become a stronger conference if Rutgers is the school to leave.

Syracuse is very good in basketball and would be a loss if the schools decide to split.

Since a split is probably not going to happen, it really is a wash which shools leave as Central Florida is just waiting to take their place.

Central Florida may become a national player in football if provided BCS status and Rutgers has not been aa good performer in mens basketball and has yet to play or win a BCS football bowl game.


Who knows, the Big Ten expanding may just eventually bring the Notre Dame football program into the Big East.

All of these type of potential events are just the reason the football schools will not split.

By not splitting the Big East is every bit as good of a conference as either the Big Ten or ACC.

The Big East is not making the revenue yet. There is potentail and this is the reason that a split will most likely never occur.

Wonder what unnamed school Alvarez (from one of the articles Freaked's provided) that Delaney visited and spoke with its President and AD about the possibility of joining the Big 10? He indicated no body would guess and it was way out-of-the-box. Ummh, my candidates would include Miami (FL), Temple, Kansas, BC, and Buffalo. Well, Buffalo, an AAU state university has the near ideal location for what the Big Ten would be wanting to do---OK, their sports programs are not even up to snuff for the MAC ::)! OK, I shall cease with the absurdity here!

Lash, Tute, et. al., good points.

Lash, your point that if Notre Dame does not take the Big Ten expansion offer, Notre Dame's ties to the Big East could get stronger. That is one scenario. I also agree the Big East is not apt, at least immediately, to make bold moves such as splitting. I tend to think what they will do is what they did before, the remaining stay together and add to the extent that fits the internal compromise. So in this situation, one all-sports school would be added. And, that would come from the usual candidates such as UCF, ECU, and Memphis.

Who would the Big Ten take between Rutgers and Syracuse? My bet would be on Rutgers. The Big Ten is not the ACC who originally wanted Syracuse; or the SEC, if they had an opening, would perhaps eye WVU (a thought at the time had So. Carolina not joined the SEC).

Compared to Syracuse, Rutgers may fit better with the Big 10 for the long-term in most respects. The Big Ten, other than Northwestern, consists of big state universities and land grants. The marketing prospects in northern Jersey may offer more potential than the more rustic locale of upstate New York. Syracuse has the bb pedigree (and better fb tradition), but can maintain the bb virtues just as well, if not better, sticking with their rivals in the Big East. Rutgers lacks the level of following, fb reputation, and facilities that Penn State offered the Big Ten. But Rutgers would stretch the Big Ten's footprint all the way to the east coast and right across the northern most flank of the ACC. That could eventually be a big deal when it come to TV marketing in the urban corridor between Washington-Baltimore and Boston. Yet, the Big East would continue to share in this with still having UCONN, 'Cuse, and certain bb only schools remaining in the domain.

As with most others, I could be wrong on who gets ultimately picked. A lot depends on how schools position themselves and politic for it. We are not privy to what's going on behind closed doors, but be assured, discussions are happening.

NOW THE BACKTRACKING! IS IT ALL ONE BIG MISUNDERSTANDING?

See below article from Inianapolis Star


12:46 PM July 31, 2007


Delany: No plans to expand Big Ten
By Terry Hutchens
terry.hutchens@indystar.com
July 31, 2007
The Indianpolis Star
INDY.COM


"CHICAGO — Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany said today expansion is not a primary issue for the conference.

“I think expansion is always possible, but as you know we expanded in 1990 and with the exception of Notre Dame (in 1999) we haven’t had conversations with anyone, nor do we have plans to have conversations with anyone," Delany said today during the Big Ten Media Days.

In an interview last week with the Des Moines Register, Delany was quoted as having an interest in expansion. “I think we need to look at it in the next year,’’ Delany said in the interview. “The broader (the network) is distributed, the more value (expansion) has. We have eight states. With expansion, you could have nine.’’

Today, Delany was careful not to accuse the newspaper of misquoting him but felt some clarification was necessary.

Delany said he felt that the quotes in the story were accurate but that it was when others picked up the story that it took on a life of its own.

“It’s interesting when it gets out there and it gets reiterated, you might think that the Big Ten was announcing it was going to expand and really that was not the case," Delany said. “What I said was that every three to five years we look at expansion and we’ll continue to do that."

Among the other topics that Delany addressed were his views on whether the Big Ten should play a championship in football or if the conference should explore playing a ninth conference game. He said the Big Ten is not interested in a championship game. He said, “If so, we would have had one 15 years ago."

As for nine conference games, he said the coaches were unanimously opposed to that suggestion and preferred to play eight Big Ten games. He said the coaches were unanimously supportive of a bye week in the schedule, but were split over whether the conference should play games beyond Thanksgiving weekend."

From Purdue Country.....

Journal and Courier
Lafayette - West Lafayette, Indiana

2-Minute Drills
PUBLISHED: 07-31-07 2:00 AM EST

Network sees profit in 12th Big Ten team
By TOM KUBAT
tkubat@journalandcourier.com

"Ah, the power of TV. And TV money.

Even a fledgling operation like the Big Ten Network already is flexing its muscles.

At least that would seem to be the case if what Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany says is accurate.

After being rejected by Notre Dame as a possible 12th school a few years back, Delany and other Big Ten officials said expansion would not be on the horizon in the near future.

Delany now says the Big Ten would like to grow from an eight-state league to one that might include nine states. And, that the Big Ten Network would love to be able to televise a conference championship football game.

That, of course, means adding a 12th team, splitting into two six-team divisions and having the two division winners square off in December for the league title.

Never mind that many of the current Big Ten coaches have said they would not be in favor of a Big Ten title game.

And, never mind that if the Big Ten did indeed stage a football championship game, doesn't it figure the game would be televised on ABC?

Which brings us to the Big Ten Kickoff affair in Chicago today and Wednesday, where Delany and the coaches are sure to be questioned about this.

The answers should prove to be very interesting. "

I really think this is just trying to get ND to feel like the "jealous ex" in this situation. If Cuse and Rutgers were their top 2 expansion picks, then they're really just looking at the football end. Rutgers is on the rise, but their basketball is really sub-par, and while Cuse has good hoops and fb tradition, their pigskin is just bad right now. I just don't see the B10 expanding for a few years.

On second thought, if one of those two BE schools were picked, it would be the perfect chance to finally tighten the screws on ND to either force them to play football or just kick them out, which would either force ND to finally swallow its own medicine and join the BE fully or be banished to a non-BCS hoops conference.

sec03, until U of Texas was mentioned, my thought on the out of box team the Big Ten may go after for the 12 school could be:

BYU or Navy - both have lots of national following for cable scribers and both would pis$ off Notre Dame. Think about it the Navy away game for Notre Dame would help the BTN with out needing Notre Dame to join. BYU would provide the Mormon college kids research dollars that otherwise could have gone to help future Catholic kids attending ND.

Getting a little more serious on my guess for out of the box thinking for the Big Ten:

Raid the the Ivy League and take Harvard as the 12th school.

Think about it for a minute and its not that far fetch. You only are looking for body bag school to allow for a football championship game.

Harvard is in a major market or better put many of the graduates control the market (stock).

Harvard would create a major benefit for the academic research group in the Big Ten.

I just don't see how adding anyone from the Big East will improve this conference as a whole. Each school in that conference has a major flaw that handicaps them from ever being successful. If Notre Dame doesn't join, I just don't think there's a team to add.

Here's the candidates...

Iowa State - Doesn't bring much from an academic standpoint, and sports are below average. Only reason that they're an option is because them and Iowa are rivals. No TV market.

Missouri - Rivals with Illinois, gives them control of the St. Louis TV market. Average in sports, average in academics. Pass.

Rutgers - Decent academic school, however distance is a factor. They're trying now in football, which is getting some attention from the New York TV market. Other sports have been a problem since they invested so heavily in football.

Pittsburgh - Rivals with Penn State, and geographically the best they could add next to ND. However, the football fan base has dissolved, and they don't bring much to the table other then basketball. Just don't see how they're any different then Minnesota.

Syracuse - Could be a sleeping giant, or it could be a dying program. Had great success if football (one national title in the 50's), and has won national titles in both basketball and lacrosse.. Another private school that helps the academic prestige of the conference. My vote if the HAVE to add another team.

Cincinnati - Sports have been on and off successful, but lack of commitment towards football is a concern. Would be the worst academic school in the Big Ten, but gives both Indiana and Ohio State a traveling opponent that's very close to both schools.

The thing you are not considering here is that any school the Big 10 adds will have to have new TV sets - and alot of them - for their network. Remember, the Big 10 wants to charge $1.10 per cable customer for their network in a state that has a Big 10 team. I mean, once the BTN is on every cable network in the Big 10 region how much the state of Ohio or PA will bring in for the conference in terms of money?

Therefore, you can rule out UCinn, Pitt, and ISU.

Also, the universities have to have good academics - so that rules out UL and WVu.

The schools left on that list would be NU, Missouri, SU, RU, and they make take a shot at Texas (obviously ND is still on this list). NU would be a nice addition but they are not in a populous state. As you said, all of them have problems. The Big 10 can afford to sit and wait a little bit.

But remember what I said earlier about their conference network. Can you think of a huge TV market that is just sitting there - unclaimed - and how money it would bring if they could get close to the $1.10?

Although I know this could never happen but the Big Ten could have perfect symmetry by letting Penn State go to the Big East and inviting Missouri and Nebraska into the league.

East Division - Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State, Northwestern

West Division - Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois,
Missouri

It makes them a 'true' midwestern conference, it gives them equal markets to what they would have now, and it perfectly balances their divisions in a way no other possible configuration could (other than doing the unthinkable and replacing Northwestern with Cincinnati). All the members would be AAU and reside in a continguous state with each other.

And it is a league that is extremely likely to happen if the Big Ten chose to pursue this make-up.

I think that you put together a great and realistic analysis of the various Big Ten expansion candidates.

The realignment with Missouri and Nebraska is an interesting scenario, but I would argue that the Big Ten wants the exact opposite - it absolutely wants to be much more than a "Midwestern" conference. With the Big East weakened in terms of its footprint on the East Coast, the conference sees an opening to pair up Penn State with another Northeastern school (or Notre Dame with its large East Coast fan base) and then lay claim to being the dominant conference in both the Northeast and the Midwest. Everything that the Big Ten has done up until this point (adding Penn State, creating the Big Ten Network, etc.) indicates that this Eastward push is the ultimate goal of the conference, which is why I have been adamant that Missouri has never been a realistic expansion candidate.

Up until about 20 years ago, conferences were perfectly fine with sticking to their own regions. However, the goal of conferences now is to be able to secure lucrative television contracts with the major broadcast networks and ESPN, which require matchups that draw national interest far beyond their own home regions. This is even more important for the Big Ten since it has its own cable network whose profitability depends upon getting it into as many cable households as possible. On this basis alone, it shows the incredible value of Penn State to the conference - the state of Pennsylvania has a larger population than the states of Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa combined. So, the single school of Penn State does more to add financial value to the conference on this basis than three very large schools in Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska put together. This is why Big East fans who somehow think that Penn State is either going to leave or get asked to leave the Big Ten are completely delusional - the last thing that the Big Ten cares about at all is being "Midwestern" and it makes absolutely zero sense for the conference to take an action that is 110% completely against its financial self-interest (and likewise, for Penn State to take an action that is 110% completely against its own financial self-interest). Penn State is the third most valuable team in the conference in terms of overall financial impact after Michigan and Ohio State, which means that the notion of the Big Ten giving up Penn State is the equivalent of the Big 12 asking Texas A&M to leave or the SEC asking Georgia or Tennessee to leave. If those scenarios were ever brought up, then people would say that they are automatically crazy, yet somehow this irrational notion that Penn State might leave the Big Ten for the Big East still exists. I've said it before and I'll say it again - geographic purity is extremely low on the list in terms of expansion qualifications for the BCS conferences, while adding large populous markets is extremely high on that same list. That is why the ACC expanded all the way to Boston, and that is why the next Big Ten team, if it's not Notre Dame, will be either Syracuse or Rutgers. Bottom line: the Big Ten isn't going to do any favors for the Big East - in fact, the Big Ten has put itself in position to replace the Big East as the dominant conference on the East Coast.

I agree with what you said here. The Big 10s expansion has been to get at eastern TV markets. I'm just not sure whether anyone other than ND will ever be able to allow the BTN to get into NYC - the biggest prize of all - unless RU or SU goes through like a decade of dominating FB. I mean even with PSU in the league the BTN isn't on basic cable in Philly and its ~ 3 million DMA. With ND in the league that would change of course and I realize that the BT can wait as long as they want but will they wait forever when another potential viable solution is out there? Even with ND in the league there are certain questions about scheduling that would probably be overcome but won't make everyone happy - which is why the NU-UM solution would most help in this situation. with UM and NU aboard they also would make money - certainly less than a ND-PSU but certainly no slouch either without the headaches of scheduling.




Again, I agree with what you say but there is no guarantee that ND will EVER join the BT. The other option for ND is to simply join the ACC - which has more private schools and academic missions that are more in line with ND.

Also note that even with PSU, OSU, and Michigan, and the gorilla that is the B10 that they weren't able to get onto basic cable in Philly. Will that ever happen? eventually but not without another team and as I said, it would have to be ND or a decade long dominant RU. Without that Philly market, a combo of NU, Missouri makes just about the same monitary $$ as PA and without the headaches of scheduling.

There were interesting comments from the Maryland president about the ACC looking at expansion in the future beyond 12 - but that was before the ACC expansion meltdown - meaning they took VT instead of SU and left the BE as a viable BCS conference for now. I'm not sure if that happens now but if ND called the ACC now, the ACC would take them in a heartbeat.

The biggest prize left is the NYC market and getting onto the cable systems there. Whoever does that first is gonig to roll in the $$$.....

The conversation of PSU going to the BE will never end until the Big 10 gets a 12 team - no matter what anyone says. There are obvious historical reasons why many say this (as you know) but the chances of that are almost 0. I am a firm believer in that PSU would ONLY leave if ND decides they want to join the BE or some modified form of the current BE - and ND would only join a modified BE if PSU was part of the picture too because thats the only way enough money could be made to make it worthwhile for either team to join.

Anyway, it's always good to read your responses here and elsewhere bluedemon (Frank the tank ;) )

Last summer Big Ten Commish Jim Delany brought up the topic of Big Ten expansion in context with BTN expansion.He indicated that the Big Ten would look at expanding to 12 schools after the BTN had reached full distribution within it's footprint.
Well,according to Delany,the BTN has reached full distribution within it's footprint.

Also,Mr Delany,whose current deal expires in 2010, is reportedly in negotiations for a contract extention with the Big Ten that will allow him to remain Commissioner thru 2013.
Look for a future announcement of this extention.

Look for Commissioner Delany to push for a 12th school to match up with PSU prior to 2013.The likely announcement time frame would be in the 2009-2011 period. The likely expansion short list "could" include Notre Dame,Syracuse,Rutgers,and Missouri.

Thanks
Freaked

Good points, Freaked & Panther;

I'd like to see the Big Ten pick # 12 first. That could trigger others to do further expansion. The PAC 10 would seem next, or the Big East would finally do something more stabilizing for the long term. If a BCS conference jumps to 14 or 16, certainly could see the ACC bridging deeper to BC by adding schools such as 'Cuse, Rutgers, UCONN, or Pitt.
Even with conference sports channels, I would think the resistance to going beyond 12 would remain strong.
I'd prefer all conferences to be at 12 with championship games in fb. While that does not assure equity in strength, it does provide a measure of consistency.
One concern I have is that Out-of-Conference games shall get reduced having mega-conferences. Receptivity to more conference games depends on individual schools. Certain schools on the geographic fringe of a conference may be more prone to prefer an appreciable number of OOC games. Other motives could be at play as well.

sec03 - I agree with you in principle. I don't know if there will be exansion beyond 12 - as you said, there will be big resistance to it.

But consider the money that is being made by the SEC and Big 10 just in terms of TV. If my math is correct then they are making at least $6-$8 million MORE in TV rights alone than the Big 12, ACC, and PAC 10. Do you think that the other conferences will sit by and do nothing? What are the ways conference can expand their revenue streams?

Another potential way to increase TV revenue is to add more conference games - which *can* be more attractive than a school vs. a Sun Belt, MAC, or CUSA team. However, that may be deterimental to schools that bring in huge reveues from home FB games. It's certainly a balancing act taking all parties needs and concerns into account.