I tend to agree with you however occurring in a slightly different path.
While we could end up with four 16 super conferences, I just do not see that happening. The SEC is already finding out the issues with scheduling with 14 schools and that becomes more intense with 16. The coaches want only the games in the divisions to count toward the championship, you get my drift.
I could see the 24 schools in the SEC and Big 12 alliance saying we are just going to take our toys and go play in another sand box. We could split into four nicely 6 team divisions aligned perfectly geographically and create our own playoff and declare ourselves national champion.
Then you have the Big Ten and Pac 12 alliance saying wait a minute we will come with you and bring our toys as well.
Then you have a 48 school alignment breaking away from the NCAA and creating all kinds of money with numbers by having a basketball tournament, football playoff, baseball college world series.
Smaller is not always better for creating additional revenue. It how you align that make the difference.
You had me until the bold. Those schools need someone to beat.
Only 10 of those 48 teams were not bowl eligible (5-7 or worse). They were 373-260 last season combined.
If they split off from the rest of the NCAA, they'd go 288-288 against each other before kickoff on Championship Week.
It will expose college football for what it really is: A bunch of rich teams playing four decent teams all season, and beating the crap out of poor teams at home 1/3 of the time.
9-4 Penn State becomes 6-4 Penn St
8-5 Auburn becomes 4-5 Auburn
8-5 Utah becomes 4-5 Utah
8-5 Mizzou becomes 5-5 Mizzou (in the Big 12)
8-5 Texas becomes 6-5 Texas
7-6 Miss St becomes 2-6 Miss St
7-6 Florida becomes 4-6 Florida
7-6 Purdue becomes 4-4 Purdue
7-6 Illinois becomes 4-6 Illinois
7-6 Iowa becomes 4-6 Iowa
7-6 Texas A&M becomes 5-6 Texas A&M (Big 12)
6-8 Cal becomes 4-8 Cal
That's a lot of prestige becoming mediocrity.
But most importantly, how are all 48 teams going to play 7 or 8 home games without the MAC, CUSA, ACC, Big East, MWC, WAC and Sun Belt around?