BCS needs 6 conferences to operate

Quinn · **Joined:** Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:05 am **Posts:** 3763

tkalmus wrote:

Fresno St. Alum wrote:

I don't know if I posted it on here but Andy Katz said and it's going on the bottom line right now that ND prefers Indy/BE but if they HAVE to join a conf. they want the ACC over the B1G. So how long does the ACC wait until they say look we are taking UConn and Rutgers now unless you want one of the spots.

Tomorrow and then Rutgers is out in the cold...UConn/ND sounds good, basketball will be sick...

KU/MU to B1G w/ Rutgers and....????? Iowa St (AAU)

Uconn will just need to hire Rutgers coach, Mike Rice then...since Calhoun has not many years left.

SJSUFan2010 · **Joined:** Mon Dec 06, 2010 7:52 pm **Posts:** 470

Looks like the second scenario is the one that will play out. The Big 12 will survive and will likely expand back to at least 10, though I think 12 is more likely for stability.

However, that 6th AQ spot seems to be very much in the air. Unless the Big 12 takes Boise, the MWC may have the edge over the Big East for the last AQ, especially if TCU can be convinced to stay. That being said, I think the Big East keeps their AQ spot. This means the MWC and C-USA are about to get raided.

My expectation is:
Big 12 adds Houston, BYU, AFA, and Boise (if Missouri leaves)
Big East adds Temple, Nova, UCF. I think they only go to 12 if they can get Army/Navy as football only members or if two non football schools leave for the ACC.
MWC adds SMU, UTEP, and potentially USU and SJSU depending on losses.

C-USA will be so torn apart I wonder if they will rebuild or if the West schools (Rice, Tulane, Tulsa) join the WAC and bring the SWC name and the East schools merge with the Sun Belt (but take the C-USA name). But even at 6 members, they can probably still rebuild with a mix WAC, Sun Belt, and FCS schools like Charlotte and App St.

Interestingly enough, C-USA is in a similar position as the ACC. They might be better off making a preemptive strike so they don't risk having to fold.

Fresno St. Alum · **Posted:** Wed Sep 21, 2011 9:33 pm

The B12 targets are BYU, Louisville, WVU
BE is Navy, Army, Air Force first, followed by ECU and UCF. No mention of Houston. all were for fb only. That sounds even less stable than it is at this moment.

So really only AFA is on the radar for MWC/CUSA combined w/ 2 more CUSA as back up plans.

tkalmus · **Joined:** Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:40 pm **Posts:** 1043

SJSUFan2010 wrote:

Looks like the second scenario is the one that will play out. The Big 12 will survive and will likely expand back to at least 10, though I think 12 is more likely for stability.

However, that 6th AQ spot seems to be very much in the air. Unless the Big 12 takes Boise, the MWC may have the edge over the Big East for the last AQ, especially if TCU can be convinced to stay. That being said, I think the Big East keeps their AQ spot. This means the MWC and C-USA are about to get raided.

My expectation is:
Big 12 adds Houston, BYU, AFA, and Boise (if Missouri leaves)
Big East adds Temple, Nova, UCF. I think they only go to 12 if they can get Army/Navy as football only members or if two non football schools leave for the ACC.
MWC adds SMU, UTEP, and potentially USU and SJSU depending on losses.

C-USA will be so torn apart I wonder if they will rebuild or if the West schools (Rice, Tulane, Tulsa) join the WAC and bring the SWC name and the East schools merge with the Sun Belt (but take the C-USA name). But even at 6 members, they can probably still rebuild with a mix WAC, Sun Belt, and FCS schools like Charlotte and App St.

Interestingly enough, C-USA is in a similar position as the ACC. They might be better off making a preemptive strike so they don't risk having to fold.

I'll keep repeating this until I'm blue in the face, or of course I'm wrong...but Texas will not let ANY school from Texas into the Big 12, period. Right now if Texas was to go independent or alone to the PAC/B1G/ACC, we'd have to make sure Tech and possibly even Baylor would find a landing spot, if not our state legislature may threaten to withhold funding or possibly even pass a law forcing us to stay. If we add Houston (another big public school that the Houston area congressmen would make us look after) or TCU/SMU (private school that have many supporter due to their law school and general support in DFW) then their is no way Texas can go anywhere. That being said...

The Big 12 should add (and I'm hearing they may) Louisville, Cincinnati, and West Virginia.

This kills the Big East, forces TCU back to the MWC which will virtually guarantee them an AQ.

This also put pressure on the ACC to take UConn and Rutgers (making them look like the bad guys that started this whole thing) which starts the ball rolling on this whole super conference bonanza.

And this send USF back to CUSA (w/ UCF) who finally take LA Tech in to help balance out the divisions.

Now the SEC could take Lville, WVU, or even Mizzou before the Big 12 is able to actually get these schools officially into the conference, however even then I'm pretty sure BYU gets in over TCU.

Now if this happens, it opens up a new Western AQ league that already has a footprint in Texas, so if OU and OSU actually get an invitation from the PAC or decide to join the SEC then Texas could bolt almost free and clear. The MWC could easily pickup BYU, Baylor, Tech, and Houston (or SMU/UTEP) to strengthen their conference and make it well rounded. This New AQ MWC (w/ TCU, BYU, Tech, Baylor, Houston, and Utah St<<to balance the divisions FSA) would be as good in fb as the ACC, bball as the PAC, and academics as the SEC. It may never be 1 or 2 in anything but I bet it could sneak in spots 3 or 4 pretty often.

This honestly kill three birds with one stone for me so I am biased, it sets up Texas to have the ability to move where they please and it kills BE fb which I've despised (except WVU/Pitt) for years and it gives the MWC its long deserving AQ bid that they've been fighting for so long. This also sets CUSA up to take back its schools like Cinncy, and Lville, plus Iowa St and Kansas St (assuming either UH or SMU bolts to the MWC which may get them an AQ bid after the Big 12 eventually falls apart.

SJSUFan2010 · **Joined:** Mon Dec 06, 2010 7:52 pm **Posts:** 470

Well that's pretty much the other scenario at this point. We can sit here and run through scenarios till our brains melt but at this point the big question is if the Big 12 is going to get Big East schools. Do Louisville, WVU, and Cincinnati feel like the Big 12 is going to be stable and do they want to play in a conference based out of Texas. I think they'll stay in the Big East for now, at least as long as the Big East has an AQ. And as long as there are 6 AQs and those two have numbers 5 and 6, the MWC and C-USA will lose schools to them.

I'd say if the ACC got any other football schools from the Big East, those three will leave and the Big East will be dead as a football AQ. WVU to the SEC could also kill it.

It's not in the Big 12's best interest to kill off the Big East because the MWC getting an AQ means they have to compete with them for schools in the future. They should make sure the Big East survives so they can grab MWC schools now and again in the future if schools leave in the future.

Fresno St. Alum · **Posted:** Thu Sep 22, 2011 1:13 am

Any BE school would take a B12 invite now. The BE has 0 stability, the B12 has some since OU/OSU were turned down and UT didn't want to go anyway. Plus they've made concessions on Tier 1&2 TV. Even if they didn't, it's still safer than the BE and a big pay raise. Now they may only go to 10 and all the BE schools but 1 would be stuck. SEC takes WVU or Mizzou or FSU and they'd fill the slot w/(Louisville-B12 or UConn-ACC).

Quinn · **Joined:** Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:05 am **Posts:** 3763

SJSUFan2010 wrote:

Looks like the second scenario is the one that will play out. The Big 12 will survive and will likely expand back to at least 10, though I think 12 is more likely for stability.

However, that 6th AQ spot seems to be very much in the air. Unless the Big 12 takes Boise, the MWC may have the edge over the Big East for the last AQ, especially if TCU can be convinced to stay. That being said, I think the Big East keeps their AQ spot. This means the MWC and C-USA are about to get raided.

My expectation is:
Big 12 adds Houston, BYU, AFA, and Boise (if Missouri leaves)
Big East adds Temple, Nova, UCF. I think they only go to 12 if they can get Army/Navy as football only members or if two non football schools leave for the ACC.
MWC adds SMU, UTEP, and potentially USU and SJSU depending on losses.

C-USA will be so torn apart I wonder if they will rebuild or if the West schools (Rice, Tulane, Tulsa) join the WAC and bring the SWC name and the East schools merge with the Sun Belt (but take the C-USA name). But even at 6 members, they can probably still rebuild with a mix WAC, Sun Belt, and FCS schools like Charlotte and App St.

Interestingly enough, C-USA is in a similar position as the ACC. They might be better off making a preemptive strike so they don't risk having to fold.

Actually not a horrible place for the MWC to be right now. Longshot but things COULD bounce their way:

Big 12 expands with 3 Big East schools, and the Big East is dead. NOOOO way the Big East with only Uconn, Rutgers, Cincy, USF plus 4-8 CUSA/MAC schools are worth a BCS bid.

Then there is the ACC: if they took 2 Big East schools, same rules apply. Even if Big 12 passed on all Big East schools, is Louiville, WVU, Cincy, TCU, UCF and CUSA/MAC schools getting a BCS bid with total ease.

SJSUFan2010 · **Joined:** Mon Dec 06, 2010 7:52 pm **Posts:** 470

I posted this thought weeks ago in another thread and now it appears we may see it happen. The Big East is obviously going to do whatever it can to hold on to their AQ, but it's going to be tough. From what I've heard, Boise is pushing hard to get in the Big 12. If this happens, the MWC can forget about the AQ spot. In fact, C-USA would be in prime position to steal that spot from the Big East, especially if the Big East loses any more members. The way I see it:

WVU to the SEC
Rutgers, UConn to the ACC (probably with ND and possibly one other non football school)
Louisville to the Big 12 (along with Boise and BYU)

That would leave Cincy, South Florida, and TCU left to join C-USA and keep the AQ. Not sure who #16 would be but they'd have their pick of the non AQs (I vote Air Force).

At which point the MWC goes from looking like the big winners to having to pick up Utah State, SJSU, and maybe even Idaho. Maybe they'll push for Montana/Montana St.

Quinn · **Joined:** Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:05 am **Posts:** 3763

SJSUFan2010 wrote:

I posted this thought weeks ago in another thread and now it appears we may see it happen. The Big East is obviously going to do whatever it can to hold on to their AQ, but it's going to be tough. From what I've heard, Boise is pushing hard to get in the Big 12. If this happens, the MWC can forget about the AQ spot. In fact, C-USA would be in prime position to steal that spot from the Big East, especially if the Big East loses any more members. The way I see it:

WVU to the SEC
Rutgers, UConn to the ACC (probably with ND and possibly one other non football school)
Louisville to the Big 12 (along with Boise and BYU)

That would leave Cincy, South Florida, and TCU left to join C-USA and keep the AQ. Not sure who #16 would be but they'd have their pick of the non AQs (I vote Air Force).

At which point the MWC goes from looking like the big winners to having to pick up Utah State, SJSU, and maybe even Idaho. Maybe they'll push for Montana/Montana St.

One big flaw in the logic: if Big East loses schools, you have the replacements coming from CUSA (UCF, SMU, Houston, ECU) as well as MWC (AF). So CUSA in no way could snag an AQ over the Big East since the Big East would be taking their top schools.

SJSUFan2010 · **Joined:** Mon Dec 06, 2010 7:52 pm **Posts:** 470

Quinn wrote:

SJSUFan2010 wrote:

I posted this thought weeks ago in another thread and now it appears we may see it happen. The Big East is obviously going to do whatever it can to hold on to their AQ, but it's going to be tough. From what I've heard, Boise is pushing hard to get in the Big 12. If this happens, the MWC can forget about the AQ spot. In fact, C-USA would be in prime position to steal that spot from the Big East, especially if the Big East loses any more members. The way I see it:

WVU to the SEC
Rutgers, UConn to the ACC (probably with ND and possibly one other non football school)
Louisville to the Big 12 (along with Boise and BYU)

That would leave Cincy, South Florida, and TCU left to join C-USA and keep the AQ. Not sure who #16 would be but they'd have their pick of the non AQs (I vote Air Force).

At which point the MWC goes from looking like the big winners to having to pick up Utah State, SJSU, and maybe even Idaho. Maybe they'll push for Montana/Montana St.

One big flaw in the logic: if Big East loses schools, you have the replacements coming from CUSA (UCF, SMU, Houston, ECU) as well as MWC (AF). So CUSA in no way could snag an AQ over the Big East since the Big East would be taking their top schools.

I think I was unclear. Cincy, USF, and TCU would be the only 3 BE schools left (in this scenario) so they would move to C-USA with the current 12 schools. C-USA plus those 3 is better than the MWC minus Boise. So AQ goes to them. This is assuming that C-USA can get those three vs the Big East being able to expand based on the fact that it is a better basketball conference.

BCS needs 6 conferences to operate

Who is online