It's long been believed that the "ultimate" end game is for the top football programs to break apart from the NCAA and set up their own governing body.
Now, in the whole "Super-conference" fiesta this summer, you saw members of the national media allude to this eventual outcome, some going so far as to pick their top 64 programs, (some labeling the new league CASH or something witty).
However, I don't think that's going to happen: The Top 64 leaving the NCAA. I think it will be more like the top 96. And here's why.
#1 - When 64 teams leave the NCAA, the NCAA's first response will be passing a "NCAA members may not play games against the teams that left" rule.
#2 - So the 64 teams will play 12 games.. against each other.
In 2010, 42 of 69 teams (BCS+ND) had records of .500 or better entering Bowl season. But when you take out the FCS, MAC, Sun Belt, C-USA, MWC, WAC, Army and Navy... FORTY NINE finished .500 or worse against the other BCS teams.
And that's before you consider how many of those wins for the remaining 20 teams came against Duke, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, Rutgers, USF, Louisville, or Cincinnati. Those 10 teams went a combined 31-65 vs the BCS and half of THEM wouldn't make the cut in a 64-team BCS Premier League.
So a 7-5 season in 2010 FBS becomes a 4-5 season with three more games left to play against BCS schools.
#3 - Home Games.
Of those 3 to 5 games against schools each BCS team is playing against non-BCS teams that wouldn't be invited, about 85% of them came at home.
If the top 64 teams form their own league, they can't all have 7 home games in a 12-game schedule. They have to expand the season JUST to keep the same number of home games.
The current BCS needs the non-BCS schools to beat the crap out of, and beat the crap out of at home.
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