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PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2003 8:16 pm 
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this thread is for those assuming the acc is taking miami, syracuse and either bc or va-tech. in this forum, i would like to debate its repercussions - not whether it'll happen.

to debate whether it'll happen, please see the acc expansion or the other big east threads.

this way, people who are already convinced the acc will raid the big east for three teams can move on to the next topic of re-alignment - the aftermath in the big east and all the other reverberations.


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PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2003 8:40 pm 
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my opinion:

first of all, i believe that boston college turns the acc invite down to stay with their long-standing association with the other northeast basketball schools (providence, seton hall, georgetown, villanova, saint johns, connecticut and notre dame), so virginia tech goes to the acc with miami and syracuse.

the remaining big east football teams are temple (still in the big east for football), rutgers, boston college, west virginia and pitt. connecticut was to be a football school, but it won't be added in time for the crash.

i believe the 8 catholic schools (providence, seton hall, georgetown, villanova, saint johns, boston college and notre dame), add marquette, depaul and st. louis from the cusa and xavier from the a-10.

someone posted something about the advantages of a split before and i agree - so i'm borrowing it. the 5 remaining football schools form an all-sports conference with boston college as a football-only member. i think that they pull out of the big east voluntarilly so they are free to add all-sports football playing teams without dealing with partial membership problems like the size of the basketball league. this allows boston college to still be on good terms with the rest. besides, i think boston college brings notre dame's bowl and tv co-operation with it. of course, that's still only 5 all-sports members - and adding army and navy do nothing to bring their all-sports membership up - so let's wait on that.

this new group first adds louisville, cincinnati and east carolina to get to 8 full time members (9 football playing members with boston college, 10 on the tv contract with notre dame). they sell the football tv package with notre dame's home games included (after nbc does not renew the contract for notre dame alone). this is the price notre dame pays to be independent and still have access to multiple bowl games - plus now they get a slice of all their away games against these former big east teams added to their tv revenue take. now, nbc likes the contract better as they may ge 8-9 notre dame games instead of just the 6 home games. they still won't join though (football independent and big east catholic for the rest), as there is no bcs automatic bid.

if they decide to go tp 12 teams (now that they have the minimum 8 full members) they can now add army and navy (8 full members, 3 football only, 1 tv and bowl package only). now at 11, they really want #12 - so they add one of these: marshall, memphis, ucf or usf. i have no idea which one wince each has it's own problems (west virginia will be against marshall, memphis, ucf and usf are a lone way away, ucf and usf have no basketball tradition) and their benefits (marshall is a proven football school, ucf and usf have southern bowl venues and tons of potential, memphis brings basketball and a track record rivalry with cincinnati and louuisville).



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PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2003 11:40 pm 
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OK, I'll bite.

ACC takes Miami(FL), Syracuse and BC (not disagreeing - just have a different set of 3).

I agree there will be a split between BB BigEast and FB BigEast.
========================================
BigEast BB (6): SetonHall, St.John's, Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, NotreDame
Adds(4): DePaul, Marquette, St. Louis and St. Joe's
(Xavier and Dayton may get future invites)

========================================
BigEast FB (6) VaTech, WestVirginia, Rutgers, Pitt, UConn, Temple (now back in with the FB group)

Adds (4-6): Louisville, Cincinnati, ECU and Marshall (WVU will just have to get used to it). I don't see them going for UCF or USF if they realise they are going to be a non-BCS conference anyway (travel costs), plus neither offers anything in BB. I could see Memphis instead of Marshall, but that's all. I don't see them adding Army and Navy (they just got out of a partial member conference!). Expansion possibilities include either Marshall or Memphis (whichever is not in at first) or Toledo.

========================================
further affects:

C-USA (which has lost Louisville, Cincinnati, ECU and maybe Memphis to the FB BigEast, 3 non-football schools to the BB BigEast and Charlotte to a regional non-football conference) shakes Army and is now left with 6: TCU, Houston, Tulane, SoMiss, UAB, USF\ - adds the WAC-east (Tulsa, Rice, SMU, LaTech), UCF and (if they lost Memphis) one of the better SunBelt teams (UNT, MTSU or NMSU).

WAC (which is down to 5 schools: Hawaii, FresnoSt, SJSU, BoiseSt, Nevada) adds UtahSt, Idaho - as well as NMSU and UNT (if they are both available - if not - then replace the missing one with La-Laf, ArkSt, TroySt or La-Mon). May just add all the remaining SunBelt teams regardless.

MAC (lost Marshall, UCF and maybe Toledo, now at 11 with: NoILL, BallSt, WestMich, CentMich, EastMich, BGSU, Miami(OH), Akron, KentSt, OhioU, Buffalo) would add MTSU to get back to 12 teams


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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2003 3:40 am 
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I hope that EMUHuron is right and Virginia Tech, not Boston College, goes to the ACC. However, if this all goes the way the ACC wants and Miami, along with Syracuse and BC go to their league, I can see the future shaking out a few different ways. Also, I am not so doom-and-gloom about the BCS berth.

First, I do not think that the marriage between the football schools (Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Connecticut) and the basketball schools (Georgetown, Seton Hall, Villanova, Providence, St. Johns, and Notre Dame) will last. After all, the Big East Conference belongs to the aforementioned basketball schools. My guess is that they will form an all sports, excluding football, conference with some of the eastern Atlantic 10 teams. They will probably retain the Big East name. I figure, too, that the western Atlantic 10 teams may pair up with the non-football Conference USA members to form a new all sports, excluding football, conference in the Midwest/Mississippi River region. I do not know what they would call themselves. This now has ended the Atlantic 10 Conference. I also believe that Connecticut goes the route with the football schools because they did not build that new stadium and invest in other facility upgrades just to return to 1-AA football. I also think that in the long-term that Connecticut can dominate the New England football scene over both Syracuse and Boston College.

The football schools have a couple of options. It is imperative, however, that two things occur. The first is that they retain an automatic BCS berth. I do not care if it takes legal action. The second is that the new conference must be ALL SPORT.

I can see the formation of a new conference taking shape in one of a few ways. Which way will depend on who leads the charge and organizes the conference, and what the BCS says will give the automatic berth.

1) The five Big East football schools add four to make a nine team ALL SPORTS conference. The four that I would select are Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, and East Carolina. The first three bring excellent basketball, and both Louisville and East Carolina bring competitive football programs and excellent fan bases. This also keeps some sense of geographical continuity and compactness. Since there are no “special” teams, there are no “special deals.” I would take a page from the ACC and implement an equity revenue sharing program. This provides a nice nine-team conference that I believe can maintain a BCS bid. Depending on how things go, perhaps growth to twelve with the addition of Southern Mississippi, Central Florida, and possibly Tulane could be likely.

2) The idea of an East-West conference is not bad and may have a better chance at retaining a BCS bid. If the five Big East football schools including Louisville form the east, while six schools (Colorado State, Brigham Young, Texas Christian, Utah, New Mexico, and Wyoming) form the west, it can operate like any other twelve team conference. Reduced travel costs, especially for non-revenue sports, would have to devised. St. Louis would be a prime place to play the conference championship game and basketball tournament. Or, perhaps rotate yearly between east and west, utilizing locations such as Denver and Washington D.C.

3) Perhaps a more likely scenario is a combination of the two. If the nine team conference that I described under option 1 does form, perhaps a deal can be struck between this new east coast conference, I’ll call it the Atlantic 9, and the Mountain West Conference to play a championship game, the winner getting the automatic BCS berth. This option allows the two conferences to act independently, not incurring the travel costs, especially for non-revenue sports. I would recommend that the MWC grow to nine for equity purposes and this would allow eighteen schools to compete for that slot. That is not much different than a twelve-team super conference, which is like two conferences anyway.


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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2003 8:18 am 
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EMUHuron, agree with you concerning BC. Although I think Syracuse is more likly to remain in the BE.

There is a very important point that is getting lost with all this media hype, no where are the NC schools stating that 12 teams are desirable for the ACC. Miami AD has stated this to help promote expansion to 10 using BE basketball schools.

I do not think the NC schools will go for 12. They are very big on round robin basketball and 12 teams do not cut it. 12 teams only benefit football alignment. The other issue is tickets for the tournament. Adding a 10 school would not hurt too much, however, adding 3 more teams would impact this. The NC schools acquire much more in donations from the alum for tickets than TV revenue can make up for.

This leads into another area of ACC championship. No where has Raycom come out a stated that the ACC championship will generate the same revenue as the SEC. The SEC gets great revenue partly because they have an exclusive contract with CBS for regular season as well. I do not think an ACC championship game will have the same impact and fan support in the ACC and Raycom will take this into consideration. They have not came out with their assestment of a 12 team format and the revenue that may be generated. Will have to pay attention to this as it could also promote the ACC to remain with 10.

Miami actually makes sense for the ACC to reach 10. 12 does not fit the ACC and really don't think the ACC will go for any other team.

You do not hear of any teams other than Miami for the announcement to be made outside of Greensboro on expansion.

The ACC can reach 10 with Miami and wait a few years to determine if 12 team format is necessary. This is expecially true because the Pac 10 and Big 10 will not expand.

Before we think 12 the ACC needs to get to 10 and Miami is not a done deal yet either.

The BE will not lose its BCS bid due to Miami.

In fact the BCS is adding another bowl so the Pac 10 and Big 10 can always play in the Rose bowl.

This extra bowl will take the pressure off the BCS and allow other conferences like the MWC to partipate.

If Miami is the only team to go the ACC, the next question is will Notre Dame replace Miami. Miami may have always been the big issue for keeping Notre Dame football independent. If ND remains independent, Louisville will replace Miami as the 8 team. The Big East will not expand beond 8 football members.


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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2003 9:42 am 
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I really do not see Miami leaving.However,if this happens the remaining 7 teams in football will add Louisville and Cinncinnati as all sports members and the bb will go to a one division status.Going to 12 will involve ND and Army and Navy entering for football only.


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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2003 2:18 pm 
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Quote:



Quote:
My guess is that they will form an all sports, excluding football, conference with some of the eastern Atlantic 10 teams. They will probably retain the Big East name. I figure, too, that the western Atlantic 10 teams may pair up with the non-football Conference USA members to form a new all sports, excluding football, conference in the Midwest/Mississippi River region. I do not know what they would call themselves. This now has ended the Atlantic 10 Conference.


This probably makes more sense than some of the posts (including some of mine) that have the 3 Catholic C-USA teams joining the BB BigEast teams since it retains more geographical sense - though it would make even more if NotreDame went with the western group (which they won't). Let me add a few teams to the list: Creighton (MVC), Detroit-Mercy (Horizon) and Loyola-Chicago (Horizon). While La-Salle fits better with the eastern group, they are a 2nd team in a single market (Philadelphia) and probably don't get an invite because of that.

BigEast (6): Providence, SetonHall, St.John's, Georgetown, NotreDame, Villanova
A-10 east(3): Fordham, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's

C-USA BB (3): St.Louis, DePaul, Marquette
A-10-west (4): Xavier, Dayton, Duquense, LaSalle
Horizon (2): Detroit-Mercy, Loyola-Chacago
MVC (1): Creighton

That leaves 5 teams in the A-10: Temple, Rhode Island, UMass, Richmond, GeorgeWashington - and they pick up Charlotte from C-USA non-FB, and a few (4) other teams to re-form the A-10 (maybe with 10 teams this time! - or is that too much to hope for?)


Quote:
1) The five Big East football schools add four to make a nine team ALL SPORTS conference. The four that I would select are Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, and East Carolina. The first three bring excellent basketball, and both Louisville and East Carolina bring competitive football programs and excellent fan bases. This also keeps some sense of geographical continuity and compactness. Since there are no “special” teams, there are no “special deals.” I would take a page from the ACC and implement an equity revenue sharing program. This provides a nice nine-team conference that I believe can maintain a BCS bid. Depending on how things go, perhaps growth to twelve with the addition of Southern Mississippi, Central Florida, and possibly Tulane could be likely.


I agree with your 4 choices if you want to establish a 9-team conference, but don't think it comes anywhere near retaining a BCS automatic bid - perhaps the play-in described here is more likely. I don't see the additions of SoMiss, UCF or Tulane because that does mess with the geographic integrity.


Quote:
2) The idea of an East-West conference is not bad and may have a better chance at retaining a BCS bid. If the five Big East football schools including Louisville form the east, while six schools (Colorado State, Brigham Young, Texas Christian, Utah, New Mexico, and Wyoming) form the west.


I think it would not be a conference - but a compromise with the BCS to allow a play-in to get one spot automatically in the BCS bowls. You could make a lot better 6-team conference than that out west. These 5 are the obvious first five choices: BYU, Utah, ColState, TCU and AirForce. Then the last spot is a choice of BoiseSt, UNLV, UtahSt, FresnoSt or Hawaii. Neither Wyoming or NewMex offers anthing in FB and only NewMex offers any BB quality. Both are overshadowed by every one of the schools on my list of 5 - in FB, or in both revenue sports, or support across the board.


Quote:
St. Louis would be a prime place to play the conference championship game and basketball tournament. Or, perhaps rotate yearly between east and west, utilizing locations such as Denver and Washington D.C.


You can't have a FB game in-between where neither conference has any support. The alternating idea works a lot better. In fact a play-in against the C-USA champ probably could materialize too - perhaps a C-USA/MAC play-in.


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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2003 2:43 pm 
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EMUHuron, agree with you concerning BC. Although I think Syracuse is more likly to remain in the BE......The BE will not lose its BCS bid due to Miami.


A Syracuse Athletic Dept official has already been quoted as saying that without Miami, the BigEast is not a BCS conference, so even the Syracuse athletic department disagrees with you.

I skipped commenting here on most of the rest of your post about whether the ACC goes to 10 or 12 because EMUHuron stated that he/she wanted us to start with that assumption (3 BigEast teams - Miami, Syracuse and either BC or Va-Tech going to the ACC).


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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2003 3:18 pm 
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the "3" going to the ACC is IMO about a 50/50 shot.
not convinced the swofford has the 7 votes that he
needs. let's say that he does not get the 7 votes and
UM, BC, & SU remain in the BE. i think then MIAMI will
have a lot to say as to what happens with the BE.
1st - i think that UM could ask for a split from the BB
only schools and have an all sports conf. 2nd - i think
that they force ND to make decision to join or not. i
doubt that they will allow ND to continue with their
bowl affiliation. 3rd. - i believe that they could force
"trained geese" to begin to expand with a 9th school
with or without ND. LU is probably a good starting point.
4th - most likely they will make "trained geese" do all
he can to get better tv deals or he's gone.

there seems to be some real concerns now on the ND
board. my guess is that their days as an indy are
numbered.


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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2003 5:30 pm 
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Word I get is that there are 6 yes votes, 2 no votes, and one on the fence.

If BC falters, Pitt is the 3rd school because they add more than just football. Their basketball is solid, and they add a new tv market. Far more than Va Tech does, as much as I hate to say it. Iwould much rather have Va Tech in the ACC than any of the other Big East schools because they are a southern team. But since they only have football, and don't bring a new tv market Va Tech isn't an option. The TV market is a bigger factor than many would think because the TV contract being expanded is what drives home the fact that the bottom line will be improved, and seals the deal. No ACC school would expand for any reason other than the payout being higher. If the ACC announces expansion, expect a new, renegotiated TV deal to be announced shortly thereafter thatincreases the $9.7 million payout per school.

If the ACC doesn't expand with Miami and two additional Big East schools...the ACC remains at 9 because the non-BCS alternatives simply do not add to the conference in a way that keeps the per school payout even close to what it is now.

The Big East people who think this is bunk had better come to the realization that there is a significant chasm between the all sports and basketball only schools, with Notre Dame being the primary issue. Notre Dame is the key factor in the Big East's survival. They either decide to be an all sports school...or the Big East dies as a BCS conference in football, and spin it all you want...without Miami the Big East is NOT a BCS conference.


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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2003 6:05 pm 
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catdaddy2402, this predictiion is comming from someone who said the BCS will not change when in fact a new bowl is getting added for the other conferences.

Another fact, what difference does it make if your in a BCS conference and Va Tech is not, Clemson is never going to make the BCS.

I can't wait until you face Miami, Clemson will become our newest wiping boys.

Clemson in the same division as Miami and Florida State! ouch!


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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2003 7:10 pm 
If the ACC raid on the Big East goes and the ACC becomes a 12 member conference, the southern division will look like this: FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, and two NC schools, probably Wake Forest and NC State. That would be one brutal division particularly for those above the Fla/Ga state line. It would remind me of the SEC east with Fla, Ga. So. Car., Tenn., Vandy, and Kentucky.
The profile may be the same: Two perennial powerhouses, plus a team that will prevail over the powerhouses every few years, one that is just below the edge of being excellent, and two that usually play the dormat role most years.


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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2003 7:23 pm 
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Quote:
catdaddy2402, this predictiion is comming from someone who said the BCS will not change when in fact a new bowl is getting added for the other conferences.


The BCS is looking into adding a bowl. Nothing has been decided. There will be changes to the BCS...but a 5th bowl will not be one of them, especially if the # of BCS conferences drops as it likely will with the propsed membership changes.
Besides..if you were going to gig me on something...gig me on my $9.7 million post....although I feel pretty darn sure if the ACC expands a new tv deal will be announced that makes $9.7 mil per school look like chump change.


Quote:
Clemson is never going to make the BCS.

Clemson won a national championship before Miami did. We did it once, we can do it again..and we will be BCS bound in either '04 or '05. Mark it down. I like the promise out very young teams shows right now, and can't wait to neuter the mutts to open the season.


Quote:
I can't wait until you face Miami, Clemson will become our newest wiping boys
Maybe...but then again when FSU joined the ACC they thought they were going to have some competition from Ga Tech and Clemson and that assumption fell thru. Arkansas was the class of the SWC and all they have done is become the West chump to the East champ the few times they won the west. Could the same happen to Miami? Hard to say.

All that said and done...I still feel at best it's a 50/50 chance the ACC will expand. I do feel a whole lot better as a fan of an ACC school in knowing that we feel strong enough as a conference to go after name schools, instead of having to look for also-rans to make our name. Conversely, if I were a fan of a Big East school...I would be worried sick that despite the success my conference has had the past two years in the major sports ('01 Football Champs, '02 Men's B-Ball champs, back to back Women's B-Ball Champs) that another conference could sway three members to take that hard a look. I said it before, and will say it again...there is a very deep chasm between the football and basketball sides in the Big East...and the sole reason is Notre Dame.


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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2003 10:49 pm 
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catdaddy2402, Army won a college football championship pre BCS days.

If you take a close look at Clemson, why does the BCS want to keep this school on payroll.

Your a small technical school in the small TV market of Greenville SC, which is actually a South Carolina SEC market. The fact that your not very good in basketball what do you bring of value to justify a BCS member?

Why not replace Va Tech with Clemson. Va Tech has actually played in the BCS and may bring the DC market.

Why is it I pick up a the Sunday Arizona Republic Sports section and on the front page is another scandal from Alabama and the new coach is fired before a game. I turn to the second page and there is a scandal on Iowa State and the coach may be fired.

Why is there such corruption in split 12 team football conferences. Does money breed greed.

Are we going to change the name of the ACC to the

Atlantic Corruption Conference?



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PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2003 9:09 am 
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Location: palm coast, fla.
www.boston.com/dailynews/...in :.shtml

as per UM AD paul dee
"we're just exploring and taking a very hard look at the
BIG EAST to see if there's something we can do there.
we're just exploring things right now".
sounds to me that if the ACC movement does not go
through then there will be some big changes coming
to the BE for the better (ref. 4 possibilities mentioned
yesterday).


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