While I think it's jumping the gun on whether ACC expansion happens or not, there are some newspapers that seem to think ACC expansion may have lost it's momentum (Virginia legislature pressing UVA to vote no if VaTech is not included, Maryland, Wake wavering etc).

Let's just suppose - for argument's sake - that the ACC doesn't expand for FB interests - and the ACC FB schools (FlaState, GaTech, Clemson) decide to look into forming a all-sports conference without the NC schools. This is after all - the potential loss tot he ACC of not ecpanding when it has the chance.

• What's the best FB line-up we could come up with?


• Where would the remaining 6 ACC schools cast their lots - with the FB schools or with the BB ones?
• Does the BigEast split still happen?

As I posted on another board...

If there were to be a split, however, the timing would be very crucial as well as who signs on from the outset. If the likes of Mimai and FSU commit to a new league early, don't be surprised if the ACC expands to 10 by dropping FSU, GT and Clemson but picks up UConn, Temple, Rutgers and possibly BC. Likely a better b-ball conference, still credible for football plus they retain their BCS status.

After the ACC and the "Catholic" League move for b-ball supremecy, that only leaves eight remaining ACC/BE Fb powers:
Miami
FSU
GT
Clemson
VT
WVU
Syracuse
Pitt

The big plus here is that this league is openly advertising for four more members. Louisville and Cincinnatti are givens to me, as CUSA loses some schools to the Catholic league. ND is not in - They'll want to remain indie in FB, join the Catholic league for all else. PSU is a last resort so as not to take away from existing TV and recruiting markets in Pitt and 'Cuse.
Similar stories with UCF, USF and Marshall.

So who's left? Navy and Army will be better off elsewhere. UNCC can't get their FB together in time. That leaves ECU, UAB, MTSU and Memphis as viable candidates(* see below). Pending all-sport compatibility, ECU gets in first. Starts the ACC rivalry off right, better geography and some existing matchups with the new league members. The others seem 50/50 to me.

So, IMO, here's your new Eastern Athletic Conference:
North: Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Cincinnatti, West Virginia, Virginia Tech

South: Miami, FSU, Ga. Tech, Clemson, ECU, UAB*

Last twist: Assuming these shifts drive what's perceived as the last configuration of div. I-A schools, I expect some last minute pushing from several I-AA schools that want in. In this case, don't be surprised to hear Ga. Southern bantied about.

Here's mine:

FlaState, Clemson, GaTech band together and ask Miami, Syracuse and BC to join them (they are all in agreement that they would like to be with each other). Now we need 2-6 other FB schools, and I suggest they ask these:

• Virginia Tech
• Pitt
• Maryland
• Virginia
• UConn
• NCState or WestVirginia

I'm thinking they lean towards NCState so as to not jump a state - and the market it could bring. I'm just not sure if NCState would join (is BB or FB more important to them?).

North: BC, UConn, Syracuse, Pitt, VaTech, Virginia or WestVirginia
South: Miami, FlaState, GaTech, Clemson, Maryland, NCState or Virginia

========================================

ACC: Duke, NorthCarolina and WakeForest (and maybe NCState) then add BB schools. I'm assuming they know they do not have the FB draw to bring in FB powers from the area. They need to add 5-6 schools - some added for academics - some for basketball. They will mostly be from the southeastern states. They like the 9 team round robin BB conference schedule - so how many they add depends largely on whether NCState stays or not.

This need not be a FB playing conference - although 7 of these schools play I-A football now. There is no way it would be a BCS conference.

I think the list could include:

• Temple (basketball - large market)
• UNC-Charlotte(basketball - in the area)
• UNC-Wilmington (basketbal - will require a name change to just "Wilmington" to avoid confusion)
• Vanderbilt (good academics - dropped from the SEC as it adds Texas/TexasA&M
• South Carolina(regional - dropped from SEC with Vanderbilt)
• Rutgers (they're available and bring a significant potential market)
• GeorgeWashington (DC market)
• Richmond (good basketball - right area)

The additions of UNC-Charlotte and UNC-Wilmington gaurantees the NorthCarolina control of the conference - it will not expand without the North Carolina schools being behind it.

========================================

The BigEast adds Marquette, DePaul and St.Louis to give NotreDame a midwestern set of opponents - and keep the Catholic BB school theme going. That gives them 9. Xavier, St.Joseph's and Dayton are possible additions.

Nert,

I really, really would be shocked to see NC State abandon the other ACC NC schools, no matter how attractive their FB program would look in another conf. Virginia might be in a similar line of thinking, and combined they'd consider themselves viable in both sports and worthy of attracting other schools. Your approach to adding more NC schools to solidify that conferences base has merit but the athletic programs are likely too different between UNC and Wilmington. Hence the other candidates we agree upon, such as Temple, Vandy and Rutgers.

At least two media sources, CBS Sportline and Boston Globe, have referenced BE sources as saying the split between the BB and FB schools will happen, it's just a matter of when and who's left to initiate it. Further, the prospective teams for joining the Big East ("Catholic") b-ball conference also seems a given (DePaul, St. Joes, etc.), as is the likelihood of ND participating in all sports but FB.

If I were the pro-expansion schools in the ACC, I would be paying close attention to the follow up from these talks if it doesn't happen right now. They may need to initiate the forming of a new league before the BE FB schools in order to make sure they have a seat at that table.

good posts gunnerfan and nert

i think (barring the successful raid of the big east by the acc) that the 3 acc schools pushing for expansion (florida state, georgia tech and clemson) could make a whole lot better football conference than the acc would be at 12 teams anyway. yes, it wouldn't be as good in basketball - but it would still be good with syracuse, and the other teams they could round up.

i agree with you nert, it would be at least the starting 6 you've ementioned (miami, florida state, georgia tech, clemson, syracuse and boston colllege). that gives them great tv and population bases (miami, boston, new york, atlanta, etc) and all are good to great football schools (florida state, miami).

the first two additions have to be virginia tech and pitt (the big 10 is not interested in either - so where else would they go?). this improves football with a northern division power (vrginia tec) and basketball (pitt). pitt is also a decent football school - but their real value is competitiveness in basketball.

Most likely scenario for an ACC split:

Rather than joining the ACC, Miami and the Big East football schools split to form a new all-sports conference - see today's Boston Globe http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/129/sports/ACC_rumblings_may_spur_a_Big_East_split+.shtml

This conference then looks to expand to 12 to qualify for a conference championship game. First names in the Miami rolodex: Florida St., Clemson, and Ga. Tech. The conference probably needs on more school for the southern division to balance the conference on a north-south basis. Louisville might be a nice fit to strengthen the conference basketball lineup. We'll call it the "Great American Conference" (I'll assume these guys would sell the naming rights to an insurance company - why not?). Here's how it looks:

North: Syracuse, Pitt, BC, Rutgers, UConn, West Virginia
South: Miami, Va.Tech, Florida St., Louisville, Ga.Tech, Clemson

ACC now needs 2-4 1-A football schools with competitive basketball programs, who don't mind not being in a BCS conference.

Some suspects: Vanderbilt, Temple, Cincinnati, Marshall, East Carolina (ugh).

Of course, if it's Vandy (and they would be the most obvious candidate) an SEC spot come open as well.

Big East reorganizes as basketball only:

Little East: Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown
Little Midwest: Notre Dame, Marquette, DePaul, St.Louis, Xavier/Dayton/Cincy

Reason why this all happens: Big East football schools get together and realize that several of them will be on the losing end of a game of musical chairs -- WVU, Va.Tech, UConn, BC, Pitt and Rutgers are all potentially left out of the BCS if the music stops at the wrong time. They cut a deal to blow off the Big East to keep Miami with them. Meanwhile, the North Carolina schools vacillate on expansion, leaving themselves vulnerable to this raid.

With Syracuse, UConn and Pitt, plus the ability to add Louisville or Cincy, the "GAC" is a first tier hoops conference as well.

To suggest that South Carolina would belittle itself to be again apart of the North Carolina 4 is ridiculous. There is a history there, and it matters, and some (Nert) may not be aware of it.

i think that if you read closely you'll see that he has them on a list of 8 possibles and he's only suggesting they need 5-6. he also only has vandy and sc there if they get booted from the sec ----- not leaving the sec to join the north carolina schools. obviously, that circumstance means they would be high and dry if they didn't join. that would change anyone's mind and attitudes. i don't think that the sec is looking to dump anyone - but this is an "if..then" theory.

now to finish my post from which i got interrupted earlier today...

this new 8 team conference (miami, florida state, clemson, georgia tech, pittsburgh, virgnia tech, syracuse and boston college) would probably want 12 teams. temple, and rutgers add no value and would not be included. maryland and virginia will most likely stick with the acc (6 teams now - north carolina, duke, wake forest, north carolina state, maryland, virginia) - which i'll get to further down. the new conference will then add west virginia, conn, ecu (just to tick off the acc) and marshall. ul and uc (the popular theories) stretch the conference too far in land.

there is no problem of adding marshall from west virginia, if they add marshall first - and even if they don't, west virginia will not wield significant power. if west virginia has a big problem with it, they can go it alone. putting them in seperate divisons also helps.

north - boston college, conn, syracuse, pittsburgh, virginia tech, marshall
south - miami, florida state, georgia tech, clemson, ecu and west virginia

as for the 6 team acc (north carolina, duke, wake forest, north carolina state, maryland, virginia), they add temple (basketball) and rutgers (for their tv market) and charlotte. this is a very compact 9 team conference with 5 north carolina teams, and one each in virginia, maryland, eastern pennsylvania and new jersey. travel would be a breeze. 8 of the 9 teams play football - but it most likely won't be a bcs conference anyway.

Big-East Alliance football on the waythe current 8 football 1A members plus 4 of the following ND,PSU,Louisville,Cinncinnati,Memphis,SFla or GaTech or Fla St.

EMUHuron, Don't you think your new superfootball conference would want the 100 million viewing media market (NYC-Philly) that Rutgers and Temple would offer? I can't see the BCS leaving out all of the North Carolina schools.

GunnerFan says


GunnerFan: That's why I said I wasn't sure which way NCState would go. If they do go, then Virginia and Maryland do as well, I suppose. If they stay, so do Maryland and Virginia. Not because of any special loyalty to NCState, but because the number of teams left gets critically small (5) without them and teams leave to cover their butts.

orangefan says


orangefan: I agree that the BigEast splits, but that doesn't necessarally mean that ALL 8 football schools (9 if you count Temple) would form the new conference. For example, what does a BCS conference with options for picking teams need Rutgers or Temple for? Neither one commands even a small fraction of their potential TV market. I mean, if you can't swim, do you really brag about how big your pool is?

Also, I notice that you and others include Louisville in your vision. Someone please explain to me why a conference completely made up of teams on the eastern seaboard needs a team in western Kentucky? They can get to 12 well before exhausting the good teams on the coast - so why go so far west?

Don't get me wrong - Louisville is a good football team - but in a conference with Miami, FlaState (both with recent multiple national championships), as well as Va-Tech (who played for one recently); does another "good" team really mean that much?

I also am aware that Louisville has had a good basketball program (currently rebuilding) with 2 national championship about 2 decades ago, but in a conference with Syracuse and UConn (both with recent national championships), as well as Pitt, BC, and other good basketball programs - do they need Louisville?

DogsNthingys (it keeps changing your name to this when I go to post - I didn't) says


DogsNthingys: I wouldn't suggest that they would leave a full BCS conference like the SEC for a basketball only (or at least a non-BCS) conference, but I'm trying to build in the rumors that the SEC may eject 3-4 teams (Vanderbilt, SoCarolina and Arkansas or MissState) to add other teams form the Big12. It's not the most likely scenario, I know - but if it happened, SoCarolina wouldn't get an invite to this new FB oriented conference and would have few other viable options. That's why I listed so many options - just a pool of who may be available to build a conference with.

EMUHuron says


EMUHuron: I can't see ECU getting even a look at, and Marshall is too weak in too many other ways (market, basketball) to bother adding them (see my arguments against adding a good Louisville football team). It just doesn't add enough to bother.

tigersharktwo says


tigersharktwo:
NotreDame and PennSt are not going to join the BigEast - even with FlaState, Clemson and Ga-Tech.

Ga-Tech and FlaState (and Clemson - which is strictly preferrable to Cincinnati, Louisville, USF or Memphis) would join Miami and some of the BigEast FB schools (Miami, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Va-Tech, UConn, WestVirginia) - but why join all of them (i.e. why include Temple and Rutgers)? If you're already leaving the BigEast (the BB/FB split), why not start from scratch with teams that actually contribute something?

The 7 BigEast schools with the 3 ACC ones already gives you 10 teams - the other two could be anybody and almost anybody would say "yes". They can afford to be choosier than settling for Cincinnati and Louisville - even approaching ACC schools (Virginia, Maryland, NCState) again or a SEC school like SoCarolina.

Also, with Miami and FlaState - they don't need USF at all.

scarletdude says


scarletdude: If Rutgers and Temple actually offered those markets (NYC and Philly), then yes, you would have to keep them. But they don't even scratch at the surface of those markets.

Also, what do the North Carolina schools offer to the BCS? The BCS is just a football designation (not FB and BB) and all 4 of the North Carolina schools are non-factors on the national scene in football.

The BE alliance football will include Rutgers but not Temple.I still think that ND could join because of its choices.However,there also some links developing again betwween PSU and BE teams.it also possible that a school such as Vanderbilt could move to the ACC.

I agree with you on this one. Nert....tell us again why the SEC would want to drop SC?
-top ten in attendance every year regardless of record
-very good facilities
-good media market with no overlap with other SEC schools
-consistently number two (behind Vandy) in football graduation rates
-no history of probation
-a relatively recent addition to the league.
Nert's reasoning makes very little sense.

Arbitrage: You listed good reasoning. Thanks for saying it.

I do not see the SEC "dumping" teams, particularly recent arrivals. As many are aware, Arkansas and SC were the recent arrivals. Going back, Ga Tech and Tulane were SEC schools, and I understand, chose to exit on their on. During the SEC's most recent expansion, they talked to both FSU and Miami. FSU wanted the ACC and Miami went to the Big East. Of course circumstances and minds can change. If a member(s) did leave the SEC, I expect it would be voluntary, at least in any immediate future. And among those that would leave voluntary, perhaps it might be Vanderbilt due to some financial reasons. I could see Arkansas lured to the Big 12 in some fashion, but why would they want to go back with Texas and company when they left it before? No one has talked much about Kentucky, but here is a great basketball program, with ACC mainstream-type football, and geograhically, they are to the north of the rest of the SEC and borders ACC states. Hey, maybe Kentucky and Vandy would end up being a package somewhere, but extreme speculation here.

OK, back to this thread, there's enough going on that the Big East will make some moves, regardless of what the ACC immediately does. If I am repeating before mentioned thoughts, in part or whole, from others, please pardon me. The Big East will do one of several things:
(a) Have a split between the Big East football and BB schools, but somehow maintain an affliliation with some loose integration in basketball. However, the football schools will go all sports with additions of Louisville, Cincinatti, East Carolina, (keeping Temple "iffy") and Memphis and/or Marshall (maybe), (Notre Dame cannot be obtained). Another MAC school like Toledo may remotely be considered. Miami would not go for UCF nor USF being a part of this.
(b) Split totally from the BB Big East. Join with FSU, Ga Tech, and Clemson. Adding East Carolina would connect every state, and hit the ACC core area further.
(c) If the ACC lands Miami, Syracuse, and Boston College (not probable despite the talk); Va Tech, WVU, and Pitt would hook up with a number of C-USA schools (ECU, Cincy, Louisville, and Memphis), and/or Marshall, and other Big East teams, being UConn, Rutgers, and Temple.
(d) Pitt could go to the Big 10 depending on what Notre Dame may eventually do. The Big Ten's choice if it wants twelve is to go west and lure Missouri, or Iowa State, or Nebraska (not very likely to snag any of them from the Big 12), or go with Pitt, the best option among any real possibilites (excluding ND).
(e) If there is a new All Sports Big East (even with two or three former deep south, ACC teams a part of it), I do not believe Penn State nor Notre Dame would become members. Penn State will stay Big 10, and Notre Dame would go Big 10 if it had to join an all sports conference.
Nert, you initiated an interesting thread.

While some postings make some "big stretches", it is fun to read! While many of us could place teams in what we think are our respective logical patterns of equal associations, college football power-making is decentralized and charged with politics and money which makes changes incrementally and conservatively. Somewhere, complete logic gets lost by the competing influences. The NCAA should hire some of you guys as consultants! I would not be surprised if one or two of you folks are indeed on the "inside", and making cases or floating ideas.