Not sure about you, I think the 16 team Big East has really good promise and have changed my mind about a split (my observation only).
I think they will split. Only a hunch really. Realistically, I think it's wait & see for them. If this thing is a success, of course they will hang together . . . sort of like sticking with a hot hand.
I think that the fb schools hung in there all those years because they also wanted to be in a premier bb conference & a fb conference wouldn't have offered that. However, with the emergence of UConn in the past decade to join Syracuse as a premier bb program at a BCS fb school & with the additions of Louisville & Cincinnati, they now have the nucleus of an all-sports conference that can still be a power in bb. They never had that before. Miami & Virginia Tech brought very little to the table in bb. BC was very good in bb but not great, not on a par with Syracuse.
The only thing that the bb schools really offer anymore is The Garden & exposure in other big media markets. That is still big. Time will tell how big.