NCAA Conference Realignment & Expansion Message Boards
NCAA Map

Discussions by Conference:
  It is currently Wed Apr 23, 2014 1:30 pm

Help support CollegeSportsInfo.com by shopping

All times are UTC - 5 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 54 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2003 4:29 pm 
Offline
All-Star
All-Star

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:09 pm
Posts: 1540
We have all speculated here about whether Big East Football (sans Miami & VA Tech) will keep its BCS berth. We have also speculated about whether Notre Dame will join Big East Football by the time the next BCS contract is renewed. Here's my speculation.

In the unlikely event that the BCS retains the same format in its next contract, i.e. limited number of conferences with automatic bids, I believe that the current 2 berths reserved for Notre Dame & the Big East will be collapsed into a single bid, awarded to whomever rates higher on the BCS formula - Notre Dame or the Big East champ.

If this is done, it will send messages to both parties. To Notre Dame, the message will be that your destiny will ride with a conference in some shape, manner, or form. It's your choice: play a conference schedule on the field or our number crunchers will compare your record to a conference champ. Since you have affiliated yourself with the Big East (assumption this will happen as has been reported), we will compare you to them. To Big East Football, the message will be that you don't merit a bid as presently constituted. Improve, add Notre Dame, or die.

In my opinion, the BCS will change due to the combined publicity fromm ACC expansion and to pending action by the Tulane-led have-nots - and therefore the above Big East/Notre Dame scenario will not be necessary. But I'm just covering all bases. ;) ::)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2003 5:35 pm 
Offline
Senior
Senior

Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2002 4:13 pm
Posts: 222

Quote:
In the unlikely event that the BCS retains the same format in its next contract, i.e. limited number of conferences with automatic bids, I believe that the current 2 berths reserved for Notre Dame & the Big East will be collapsed into a single bid, awarded to whomever rates higher on the BCS formula - Notre Dame or the Big East champ.

This is actually a better deal for ND. As the "preferred non-BCS" team now they got stiffed last year thanks to better rated Iowa & USC, 2nd place teams in their conferences.

This plan would almost assure them an annual BCS berth, and keep them from ever joining a conference.

How often is a quality ND team going to be rated behind a BE champ who no longer plays Miami or VT? 1 year out of 10? how often is ND behind the CUSA champ?

Obviously, the BE would again go begging for ND as they see their $13 million go away, but ND can say no with almost no risk.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2003 6:27 pm 
Offline
All-Star
All-Star

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:09 pm
Posts: 1540

Quote:
This plan would almost assure them an annual BCS berth, and keep them from ever joining a conference.

How often is a quality ND team going to be rated behind a BE champ who no longer plays Miami or VT? 1 year out of 10?


EarthX, let's use the past 10 years as a reality check. Since there is no BCS rating system for 10 years back, I used NCAA Division !-A Power Rating as a source & for the sake of consistency, used it for all 10 years. The results show the following:

Notre Dame = 4 appearances
Syracuse = 4 appearances
BC = 2 appearances

Throw Marshall into the mix & it would change:

Notre Dame = 4 appearances
Syracuse = 3 appearances
Marshall = 2 appearances
BC = 1 appearance

Neither the addition of Louisville nor that of Cincinnati or any of the other contenders would have any effect once Marshall is included. (The only exception to this is 1999 when both E. Carolina & S. Miss were ranked above the 3 teams in question, but neither of them were close to #8 Marshall nor did they threaten any other year.) While this is looking in the rear view mirror to predict the future, I think that it is more likely that inclusion in a BCS conference will improve the recruiting & therefore the fortunes of UConn & any other additons to Big East Football than that the performance of Notre Dame will change in any substantial way over the next 10 years.

This analysis actually makes a very compelling argument for the inclusion of Marshall in Big East Football because they were ranked 8th & 21st in the 2 years they would have appeared. Coincidentally, these were 2 years when the other 3 were all outside the Top 25 & therefore not deserving of a BCS bid .


Last edited by friarfan on Mon Jul 14, 2003 7:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2003 5:22 am 
I did some additional research on this topic:

1. Only 2 of the Big East 6 have been ranked in the BCS Top 15 in the 5 years of its existence - West Virginia in '02 & Syracuse in '98. Both were ranked at #15.

2. Notre Dame has been ranked in the BCS Top 15 twice in this same period - #9 in '02 & #11 in '00.

The only minimum criterion that the BCS has set for membership is that a conference's champion must average #12 over a four year period ("Big East" rule). Since the Big East has only appeared twice in the Top 15 (#15 both times) & only once in any given 4-year period, they fail to meet this criterion. Even when combined with Notre Dame, the combination only appears in 3 of the 5 years, twice in any given 4-year period. They also do not average #12 in any 4-year period.

3. Marshall has been ranked in the BCS Top 15 twice - #12 in '01 & #12 in '99.

With Marshall, the Big East still does not average #12 in any 4-year period & has no appearance in 1999.

The only way to meet the minimum standard is for an expanded Big East (including Marshall)/Notre Dame combined automatic bid. In this case, the automatic bid would have been awarded as follows:

2002 - Notre Dame #9
2001 - Marshall #12
2000 - Notre Dame #11
1999 - Marshall #12
1998 - Syracuse #15

4. The only other non-BCS school to be ranked in the BCS Top 15 in the past four years is #14 TCU in '99.

The Big East/Marshall/Notre Dame combination would not only meet the minimu standars but would also be the only such group that does meet the minimum standard, setting them apart from the Mountain West & others.

FriarFan



Top
  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2003 6:05 am 
Offline
All-Conference
All-Conference

Joined: Tue Jul 01, 2003 7:21 am
Posts: 748
Location: Midwest
"The only minimum criterion that the BCS has set for membership is that a conference's champion must average #12 over a four year period ("Big East" rule). "

Hmm, had forgotten about that rule. There's also a current "Notre Dame" rule (I believe it is 7b?, but I am working off another computer and don't have my usual links) that should be factored in as well. .

That rule, at least as currently constituted (the #12 average rule) is very dangerous for the New Eastern Conference (GreatEast).

I cannot but believe that in reconfiguring/renegotiating the BCS, the power of the media will create the kind of changes that will include some meaningful BigEast participation. The number of tv sets is simply too large--1/3 of the country--to be excluded. The other conferences would be shooting themselves in the foot if they did not find some creative way out.

I think it likely there will be a slight broadening of the formula and number rankings, and perhaps it will be necessary to add the fifth bowl (Gator or Cotton?).


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2003 8:37 am 
Offline
All-Star
All-Star

Joined: Fri May 02, 2003 12:39 pm
Posts: 1215
Keep in mind that for the BCS formula you're discussing conference champions are a block entity, not individual teams. In other words, the BE has the appearances and rankings for VT and Miami to its credit. To assume that the individual schools must meet the criteria would mean Maryland and Iowa would not have made the BCS appearances they had within the past couple years. So, with respect to the "average of 12" formula, BE is safe unless they drop off the radar over the next few years.

Now, if the football schools were to abandon the Big East name or BCS berth, this might be a different issue entirely. I imagine that's one of the things that is being bantied about by the football schools, CUSA and others. It's also the reason why more bold moves will be placed on hold for a while, as they try to gauge the future of the BCS. Dropping the "avg of 12" rule would hurt the BCS in adding credibility to BCS opponents, since the BCS conferences would assume an even more cartel-like status. Adding conferences would increase the odds that a member conference might not legitimately average 12, just by shear volume of schools involved. Likely scenario, a new average ranking requirement of 15 or 20. BE requests this type of action, other conferences are okay because it keeps things afloat and keeps the northeast TV market in the fold. Remember, it's highly unlikely the BCS concferences would dissallow something that helps the smaller conferences so long as they can still enjoy their chokehold on the TV $$.

As for the ND clause, I think they should be treated as a full independent. That's what their football team is, that's how they should be addressed. The bowls have their ways for taking independents into account, no need to tie the BE ship to ND as this demeans their conference. Obviously ND won't seek the same arrangement with a lesser conference because of weaker bowl games. And the stronger conferences don't want to sully the chances for their own members to go traveling. ND may request the affiliation as part of their helping the football schools stabilize themselves, but I hope the conditions offered to ND would be temporary at best.



Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2003 8:52 am 
Offline
All-Star
All-Star

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:09 pm
Posts: 1540
Gunnerfan, I see no danger that the Big East will lose its BCS berth in the next 3 years. My speculation relates to a new BCS contract, beginning in 2006. At that point, the performance of Miami & VA Tech will not be considered because they will no longer be members of the conference & even the '02 & '03 rankings of these two while still in the Big East wouldn't possibly be considered in such a business deal.

The "ranking of 12" is more of a guideline than a rule. Failure to meet it over a 4-year period triggers a review which may or may not result in a conference being dropped from the BCS consortium. I think it is revealing in that it is a clear statement about what the agreed upon expectations of the member conferences are. It is a standard that no other conference has met over the past 5 years & with Marshall's membership, the Big East could have a shot of meeting, pending the performance of conference members over the next 3 years.

I agree with you that there will be changes in the whole ball of wax when the conference is renegotiated. It's hard to tell now in what direction they will go.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2003 9:31 am 
Offline
All-Star
All-Star

Joined: Fri May 02, 2003 12:39 pm
Posts: 1215

Quote:

It is a standard that no other conference has met over the past 5 years & with Marshall's membership, the Big East could have a shot of meeting, pending the performance of conference members over the next 3 years.


Did you mean to say "no other conference has not met?"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2003 10:31 am 
Offline
All-Star
All-Star

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:09 pm
Posts: 1540
No, that would be a double negative & FriarFan eschews the double negative as the good Jesuits taught him. ;D

I'll say simply that no other conference has met that standard. In fact, even without Notre Dame, but with a #12 ranking by Marshall in '01 & a #15 ranking by West Virginia in '02, the Big East will have a good case to make in '06 if the 6 continuing members &/or any newcomers play Top 12-15 football in the next 3 years. They would be close enough to this standard.



Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2003 12:31 pm 
Offline
Senior
Senior

Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2002 4:13 pm
Posts: 222

Quote:


EarthX, let's use the past 10 years as a reality check. Since there is no BCS rating system for 10 years back, I used NCAA Division !-A Power Rating as a source & for the sake of consistency, used it for all 10 years. The results show the following:

Notre Dame = 4 appearances
Syracuse = 4 appearances
BC = 2 appearances

Throw Marshall into the mix & it would change:

Notre Dame = 4 appearances
Syracuse = 3 appearances
Marshall = 2 appearances
BC = 1 appearance

You completely miss my point: I'm speaking about the future, not the past.

SYR & BC have been in a league with media-favorite Miami (& VT in later years) which kicks up their computer rankings and poll rankings, even if they didn't play. A one loss team due to Miami is going to get a better ranking than a team with one loss due to WV, due to most ranking systems being biased towards the "elite" teams. SOS was also directly affected in later years where Miami & VT were top teams.

Given the future schedule (WITHOUT VT & Miami), BC and SYR won't often end up ahead of ND in any poll unless ND has a really bad year. Name value counts a lot in ND's rankings every year. The BE teams don't have that luxury.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2003 12:51 pm 
Offline
All-Star
All-Star

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:09 pm
Posts: 1540
EarthX, I did get your point; I knew that you were talking about the future. I used past performance to guage the credibility of your projection into the future. Polls, which are only a compilation of opinions, of course, are biased & may be affected by league reputation, but computer rating services have much more limited bias - & that is primarily due to the pre-season talent/past performance assessment. I ran a computer service for a number of years & do not agree with your statement of bias. It is performance based. Losing to Miami only helps if you play well when you lose to them.

Name recognition may help Notre Dame some in the polls. What helps Notre Dame most is that they play a tough schedule most years. To the extent that they recruit well & perform well, their name means something. When these things decline, so does the value of their name - except on TV ratings, it seems.
And, after all, Notre Dame has not been recruiting as well or winning with as much consistency as they used to.

None of us have any idea yet what the Big East teams will do over the next decade (You did refer to a 10-year period.) in regard to SOS. We don't even know yet what their new league will look like, much less their OOC schedules.

Playing a MAC schedule, Marshall ranked higher than Notre Dame 3 times in the past 6 years alone. There's no reason why teams won't be able to do the same in a re-constituted Big East - especially if it keeps its BCS bid?

On what do you base your optimistic outlook for Notre Dame?


Last edited by friarfan on Tue Jul 15, 2003 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2003 5:52 pm 
Offline
Senior
Senior

Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2002 4:13 pm
Posts: 222

Quote:

Playing a MAC schedule, Marshall ranked higher than Notre Dame 3 times in the past 6 years alone. There's no reason why teams won't be able to do the same in a re-constituted Big East - especially if it keeps its BCS bid?

On what do you base your optimistic outlook for Notre Dame?

Assuming we're looking at the same "power ratings:"

I just don't see BE teams being able to replace Miami & VT on their schedule every year. Top teams don't want to play "quality teams" when it might mean a loss that drives them from the top 10. A loss to ND doesn't hurt that much in the polls while a loss to Pitt does.

That SOS issue hits a team twice in the BCS: the SOS calc and all the computer rankings. The item is always on the minds of the pollsters too. ND didn't even look that great for most of the year, but their schedule kept them at a high rank everywhere.

BE teams just won't be able to keep up.

The Marshall thing looks like a fluke to me. 1999 & 2001 were two of the worst-performing ND teams I've ever seen. I doubt that will continue and ND will be a regular top-30 team in these ratings. It's been three years since Marshall got that high, so I'm still waiting to see if the team will rebound and be a consistent player in things.

In summary: I am just convinced the bias of the polls and rankings towards the "historical elites" will hamper a league without one (see the MWC).


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2003 7:50 pm 
Offline
All-Star
All-Star

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:09 pm
Posts: 1540
EarthX, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on bias toward the historical elites. They do so because BCS schools get 98% of the top recruits, so they start out the year ranked higher & it is hard to make up ground against them without taking ratings points from them in head to head competition. The bias is that with all that talent, they're just better.

My point about Marshall wasn't that they will bounce back, but that if they can do it, so can someone else. With the Big East still in the BCS, they will continue to recruit & with no Miami or VA Tech, they will have better records, so . . . Well, we'll see. BTW, Marshall was also in the Top 25 in '97 & finished higher than ND that year as well.

My real disagreement with you, though, is about Notre Dame. In South Bend, they blame Bob Davies & praise Ty Willingham . . . for now. I think that Notre Dame has problems that are bigger than replacing a coach. I think that they will continue to be up & down as they have been over the past decade & that national championships will continue to prove elusive. Just my opinion, so we may just have to agree to disagree on this one. :)


Last edited by friarfan on Tue Jul 15, 2003 7:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2003 3:54 am 
Offline
All-Star
All-Star

Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2002 12:21 pm
Posts: 1916
marshal a poor tv market,a poor school and has no chance of being in the Great East.They run a JC for their football players.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: BCS: Notre Dame/Big East
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2003 5:35 am 
Offline
All-Star
All-Star

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:09 pm
Posts: 1540
Tigershark, point well taken. I should clarify my post so that the 2nd paragraph would read:

"My point about Marshall wasn't that they will bounce back, but that if they can ACHIEVE HIGH RANKINGS IN A LESSER LEAGUE, so can someone else. With the Big East still in the BCS, THE BIG EAST 6 will continue to recruit, & with no Miami & no VA Tech, they will have better records, so . . . Well, we'll see."

Everything you say about Marshall is true & I've been opposed to their inclusion in a new Big East for all of the same reasons. I've become torn on this issue after recently taking a closer look at their record. They can improve the football profile that a new Big East can project more than anyone except Notre Dame. In fact, they are the only program east of the Mississippi that can make any substantial difference in a Big East football profile besides Notre Dame. However, I've always believed in looking at the big picture, so I'll have to concede that you're probably right.


Last edited by friarfan on Wed Jul 16, 2003 5:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 54 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
 

 




Looking for College Sports apparel? Support our partner:








Support Our Partners: Search Engine Marketing - Search Engine Optimization - Search Engine Training - Online Marketing for Restuarants

Subway Map Shirts - Food and Travel

Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group