There is a big difference between what Notre Dame WILL do and what Notre Dame SHOULD do when it comes to joining a conference that would include its football program.

Forces within ND want to keep the tradition and the special image independence gives the school, along with the ability to get the type of contract the school has with NBC. ND thrived on an aura of being different, apart from the rest through much of the 20th century.....the independent status, the coast-to-coast schedule, the appeal to ethnic Catholics.

Unfortunately for the Irish, the national landscape has changed. Independent status puts in question the ability to compete in the BCS (where ND is not calling the shots) and ND's connection to ethnic Catholics has little relevance in today's world.

So, will ND join a conference and include its football program? Probably not.

More importantly, should it? IMHO, that would be an unquestionable YES

The ACC expansion (going for eleven with VT and Miami with a desire to go to 12) highlights the fact that major conferences view twelve as the desirable number. Twelve teams generally means the last 7 or 8 games of the season are played in conference. If that is the case, who will ND play for its 7 or 8 last games? Navy every week? As is, even SC waits for its Pac Ten season to end when it plays ND in LA.

Football conferences are in a time of transiton with realignment. That's why a board like this exists. They will, at some point, stablize and with that, no doubt, a change in the BCS championship formula, one based on conference membership. ND does not control the BCS; who is to say it won't be shut out or severely compromised by its independent status? I believe there are a number of schools out there that would love to screw ND on this issue.

If you accept the above and take the opinion that conference membership is essential to ND's future, then you'd have to admit the clock is ticking. With VT and Miami leaving the Big East, any attraction that conference has to ND must be fading. By losing its two southern members, there is not enough left in the remaining northeastern members of the Big East to make it a viable national presence (unless the most unlikely of circumstances happens....Penn St. leaving the Big Ten for membership). Even with ND's strong connections to the east coast, there does not appear to be enough schools in the remaining Big East to make a major national conference.

The ACC would love to have ND, but what connection do the Irish have to the southeast? None. I know the Irish won't go this route, but there best bet would be to reconsider joining the Big Ten. They are right smack in the middle of the middle west. They already play MSU and Purdue yearly. Michigan frequently has been on the schedule. Indiana would add another intrastate rivalry. Northwestern has been a frequent rival and an ND-NU conference game would be huge in Chicago (as would ND-Illini). Ohio State-ND and Penn St-ND are super match-ups.

ND's future would best be served with conference membership (IMHO, the Big Ten) but for present-thinking ND, I don't see it happening. ND's options get fewer and fewer as we speak and if they don't act soon, others will be making decisions for them that could prove to be very, very harmful.

Speculative articles about NDs future amidst all this realignment talk has referenced the coaches of non-revenue programs as saying the costs, scheduling and travel conditions would be best for them in the Big 10. And, as you pointed out they already count 2-3 Big 10 schools among their regular opponents.

I think they will eventually move to join the Big 10, though years down the road. The reconfigured Big East may not issue them an ultimatum, but the conference will take shape such that they're not as dependent on the Irish either. Plus, after all this fuss the new BE contracts may include much greater penalties for leaving, at which point ND will have to weight the value of reaching out to the northeast as a conference member or through out-of-conference rivalries.

Two other factors will weigh in here; Will a 12th regualr season game be made permanent, as some school are hoping? This would ease the impact of ND having a conference schedule. But many people think that increases in conference championships and/or possible playoffs will reduce the NCAA's acceptance, orthe need for, a 12th game. This latter issue is also crucial, because as other conferences grow in stature for shaping college football, ND may lose status in determining BCS allotments or number of playoff spots. Very few playoff scenarios begin with "_____ at large berths," instead they're almost all based on taking conference champions.

For those that feel the Irish need as much independence as possible and the right to keep TV money from their home games, I feel they may be better off joining the BE ASAP. Push the BE to accept ND, Louisville and two others for all-sports instead of adding more non-fb schools (sorry, Xavier). Then add Navy and Army for fb only. 12 teams with conference championship (which will often feature ND), only 7 conference games (plus Navy and BC would be covered), ND can keep their own TV money (Big 10 won't allow that), and such a configuration might be attractive enough to lure PSU.

I don't think it will happen, but if it did even Mike Tranghese would congratulate the ACC on their expansion.

First...
What's an ethnic Catholic? ;)

Actually...

If your last point were only true! ;D
How ironic would it be for others to make decisions for Notre Dame!

It is conceivable that the both the Big 10 and the ACC are now going to be sitting at 11 schools with hope against hope that they can be the ones to get ND to sign their dance card for #12.

Personally I would love to see ND get shut out, lose all their sweet "personal gain" deals, and have to play by the same rules everybody else does. I hope you are right, and others dictate their final outcome.

That would be justice. ;)

And NO, I'm not an "ethnic Catholic" but some of my best friends probably are... 8-)

What's an ethnic Catholic?

For much of the 20th century, a lot of the support for Notre Dame were from first, second and third generation Irish Americans, Italian Americans, Polish Americans, etc. (countries that were largely Catholic).

That didn't only give Notre Dame a lot of support in nearby Chicago, but from cities with large Catholic populations across the country (and particularly on the East Coast). In New York, I believe, they were referred to as "Subway Alumni".

This is a purely wishful thinking NotreDame scenario in an idealistic world not concerned with $$$$, and a bit tongue-in-cheek (lol).

1. Whereas everyone realizes that for future conference stability, ND should join either the Big10, BE, or ACC in all sports.

2. And whereas these three conferences altruistically believe that where ND ends up does not really matter--wherever it does, college football and all conferences will be more stable, there will be fewer special deals, etc.

3. Therefore these three conferences altruistically decide they will no longer schedule ND among their members, until such time as ND chooses an all-sports affiliation.

4. And further through such altruistic unselfish joint endeavor, ND is finally forced to confront moral reality and begin to act like any other reputable university. A light suddenly dawns on the ND hierarchy, who realize this type of behavior is the essence of their faith in any case, and a great moral and spiritual revival sweeps the campus.

5. Heck, you might even start liking a few ND alumni and fans, and start rooting with them occasionally!!! After all, its a really GREAT fight song

What's the dirty little secret they don't want to talk about in South Bend? Notre Dame Football is in decline!

Blame the coach! Oh, we've got a new one now who will lead us back to the promised land. We've been through this before! Oh, it's not still the '50s & '60s any more? Where's Ara when you need him?

The only folks outside of South Bend who haven't noticed this live at the networks. And that's because they just look at 3 things: dollars, ratings, & dollars. BTW, did I mention dollars?

Digger Phelps warned Notre Dame in the '80s that their basketball program needed a conference to return to being the powerhouse that it was in the '70s. Nobody listened. They blamed Digger for the team's failures. They whispered that he had lost it. But the landscape in college basketball had changed & Digger knew it.

The landscape in college football has changed, but the Irish don't know it. They haven't won a national championship since 1988. That's 15 years. More importantly, they haven't even been in contention for almost a decade! People are going to stop watching. If Notre Dame waits, it will be too late; they will have lost their leverage.

If Notre Dame moves now, they can have Big Ten membership handed to them. Or they can get a sweetheart deal from the Big East. I won't even mention the ACC because they don't want to go there.

The Big Ten is an exclusive fraternity. They don't throw you out, but it is exclusive & Notre Dame's appeal will wane if they wait until they are permanently second rate - as they did in basketball. The Big East won't give a sweetheart deal when the ingenue has lost her good looks & isn't America's sweetheart anymore.

The funny thing is . . . for all its status, these next few years may represent Notre Dame's last chance. :o

Face it, every other school and conference wants to bring ND down a peg, which will be tough in a sport that thrives on tradition. And even though the leaders of those other entities will work to stifle the Irish program, I can't see them unilaterally trying to kill it. As more conferences move to divisional play, it will free up out of conference slots that schools would love to fill with ND. And the Big 10 is such a proud organization that I can't see them forcing Purdue, MSU and others from playing the Irish.

As such, I can't see ND falling off the map, per se, but what will hit them hard is the prospect of missing out on the big payday for many years in a row. One thing to look for in the future is a BCS/Playoff structure with fewer at large spots. Conferences can use their own championship games and other bowl ties to bring in the big revenue, while using a performance-pay structure in the BCS that involves most, if not all conferences. Maybe with play-in games, who knows, but it will be a system whereby the independents and mid-majors will have their legitimate shot, only via the toughest road possible.

Thus, the power conferences will continue to shape the way to NCAA championships and money, a way that demands conference affiliation. ND saw this for their other sports, and will eventually come to terms with it in football. It will simply be a matter of time. The BE scenarios will possibly grow too expensive for them, and they'll see the window of opportunity growing smaller at the Big 10. Eventually the fans will see what the faculty and select coaches have known all along, ND is the Big 10's lost child and must return home.

Well said. 8-) Those Catholic priest at Notre Dame should be able to relate your post . . . parable of the "Lost Sheep" & all . . . LOL ;D

bgdz...Gunnerfan
These posts are right on the mark!

Indications of the loss of power of the Irish even in the face of their "ingenue" status with the networks was exhibited in last years BCS!!!

A sign of things to come we can all hope. :)

Could you imagine the networks being forced to take Iowa and USC over Notre Dame for a BCS slot 5-10 years ago?

That's essentially what happened last year, and the conferences had the "juice" to pull it off (at least the Big 10 and the Pac-10 did).

It was only a few years back that a very weak Notre Dame team went to the BCS over a more deserving VaTech team (Big East power statement here). You might remember that Oregon State dismantled Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl that year. But the Fiesta Bowl got Notre Dame and that's all they cared about.

Last year the conferences would not let that happen. Notre Dame needs to stand up and take notice. The days of ND stepping into a BCS game with 2-3 losses are just about coming to an end.

Interesting as the Big East loses power ND will get an opportunity to occupy more quality BigEast bowl slots in the Big East's effort to sustain a tie with Notre Dame. However, when the Big East has NO power with the other five major conferences Notre Dame will lose influence in the BCS bowls, unless they are significantly better than the other fives potential reps!

So, when formally ND did not have to be as good to get into a BCS contest, in the future they will have to be significantly better, all because they will tie themselves to the sweetheart deals of the BigEast in order to sustain their football independence, and the BigEast is now falling fast as a power-broker in big time college football.

Look for an annual trip to the Gator Bowl for ND, until of course the Gator Bowl becomes BCS, and then ND will have to find a new "second tier" bowl to annually attend.

I'm sorry, but that is true justice... 8-)

wags, I agree with the rest of your post 100% but I only agree with the above statement about 95%. Remember, ND's schedule year in and year out includes less cupcakes than the average SEC schedule. I hate ND more than most, but generally they have a really tough schedule...tough enough that 2 losses can get them into the BCS and usually rightly so, and 3 isn't unheard of. www.nationalchamps.net ranks ND's sos as #6. 2 or 3 losses in a top ten sos and a BCS win isn't horrible.

But yes, we should burn Notre Dame's campus down. You in?

nanny,

fire is a little radical and over the top...
plagues would be better and more just in a biblical sense.
frogs and flies would do the trick.
how to import them ???

;D 8-)

All the recent posts have done an excellent job of stating ND's weakened football position. The comments have been perceptive, but the type of perceptive I would expect from knowledgable, articulate fans.

My point? The things that were so well said here must be TOTALLY OBVIOUS TO THE ADMINISTRATION OF NOTRE DAME. Unquestionably.

So let offer a follow up here: If you accept the above, that the powers that be at ND know that the day of independents is over and their future needs to include a full conference affiliation, WHY AREN'T THEY ACTING ON IT?

As many have observed, that window of opportunity is getting smaller and smaller. What's preventing ND from making the move it has to make? Alumni? Student body? Big contributors? The need to milk the NBC contract for all its worth? What the heck is making the people who run this school and know at least as much as we do (and a lot more with information we don't have) concentrate so much on the present when they know that could kill the school's future??????

$$$$$$$

Once they go, so does ND independence. Big mistake, IMO, because by then it may be too late. They need to be more forward thinking. They would already have been in the Big Ten had it not been for alumni & big contributors. So, part of the blame lies there. Must be that brainwashing program that they all went through during freshman orientation.

What would ND do if they were removed from the BE picture? Surely they would want their non-revenue sports in a conference, right? Would ND allow even those sports only to be a part of CUSA? And this isn't a slight against the level of competition, though it could be, but rather a statement of TV markets and travel. ND vs. Houston or So. Miss?!

This is important, because (I'm assuming) the same folks at ND that want to preserve their fb indipendence will surely want to preserve their BE affiliation for other sports. Can you see ND immediately taking sides with the faction that allows them to do this, no matter what it means to the other BE schools?! Could the BE presume this and then consider expelling them rather than risking Pitt or Syracuse becoming Big 10 #12?

Gunnerfan, I think you are right about them siding with whomever gives them the best deal. Oddly enough, this may be the football schools because they can probably get an agreement to play a partial schedule & give themselves a fall-back position for conference membership should they ever have to join fully & Big Ten membership is no longer available to them.

I don't know of any conference that has provisions for expelling members - other than the performance conditions (attendance) that the Big East has for football-only member Temple. I assume that other conference also have no way to expel a member or else some obvious no-shows in league competition would have been gone long ago. I thought that once you had a partner, you were stuck with them unless they opted to leave.

But I truly don't know about expulsion provisions. Does anyone have any information aon this?