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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:46 pm 
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*Post 3 of 4*

MAC schools cont.

Miami University (OH)
AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities – Intensive
USNWR Rating: 2nd Tier National University -- #64 Ranking
Distance to Morgantown, WV: 330 miles
Distance to Pittsburgh, PA: 310 miles
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes – OSU is in the Big 10 does not demonstrate enough that it would have statewide following like OSU. However, because it is a near-like flagship it may penetrate the statewide market more than other MAC schools.
Metro/market size: Major – Large: Cincinnati Greater Metro (2.1 million)
Major: Dayton (1 million)
Combined size of both metros: (3.1 million)/ 2nd/3rd Team
(UCincy, OSU)
State Market: Ohio – 11.5 million/3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th Team depending on how you look at all the MAC schools

Ball State University:
AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities – Intensive
USNWR Rating: USNWR Rating: 3rd Tier National University
Distance to Morgantown, WV: 350 miles
Distance to Pittsburgh: 330 miles
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes – Indiana and Purdue are both in the Big 10, and Norte Dame is a very very major national Independent does not demonstrate enough that it would have statewide following like IU, PU and UND.
Metro/market size: Small (150,000)
State Market size: Indiana – 6 million/4th Team

Eastern Michigan University:
AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Master’s Colleges and Universities – I
USNWR Rating: Midwest Master’s/Regional Tier 3
Distance to Morgantown, WV: 350 miles
Distance to Pittsburgh: 280 miles
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes – U of M and MSU are in the Big 10 does not demonstrate enough that it would have statewide following like U of M and MSU.
Metro/market size: Mid-major satellite: Ann Arbor (340,000)
Major-Major: Detroit Greater Metro (5.2 million)
State Market size: Michigan – 10 million/3rd, 4th, 5th team depending on how you view WMU and CMU

Central Michigan University:
AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities – Intensive
USNWR Rating: 4th Tier National University
Distance to Pittsburgh: 410 miles
Distance to Morgantown, WV: 480 miles
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes – U of M and MSU are in the Big 10 does not demonstrate enough that it would have statewide following like U of M and MSU.
Metro/market size: Micropolitan/Rural: Mount Pleasant (60,000)
State Market size: Michigan – 10 million/3rd, 4th, 5th team depending on how you view WMU and EMU

Western Michigan University:
AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities – Extensive
USNWR Rating: 3rd Tier National University
Distance to Pittsburgh: 370 miles
Distance to Morgantown, WV: 440 miles
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes – U of M and MSU are in the Big 10 does not demonstrate enough that it would have statewide following like U of M and MSU.
Metro/market size: Mid-major metro – smallish: Kalamazoo-Battle Creek (440,000)
State Market Size: Michigan – 10 million/3rd, 4th, 5th team depending on how you view CMU and EMU

Northern Illinois University:
AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities – Extensive
USNWR Rating: 4th Tier National University
Distance to Pittsburgh: 520 miles
Distance to Morgantown, WV: 590 miles
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes – U Illinois and Northwestern are in the Big 10 does not demonstrate enough that it would have statewide following like U Illinois or Northwestern’s following Chicago metro-wide.
Metro/market size: Satellite city of 35,000 (DeKalb, IL) 65 to 70 miles west of Chicago – Major-Major-Major metro area of 9 million
State Market Size: Illinois – 12.5 million people/3rd Team

I’m not going to bother with Sun Belt Teams

*Cont. on Post 4 of 4*


Last edited by sportsgeogoffline on Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:47 pm 
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*Post 4 of 4*

Independents and Temple:

Temple University:
AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities – Extensive
USNWR Rating: 3rd Tier National University
Northeast Footprint: Yes
Big East member currently: Yes -- Affiliate – but getting the boot
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes – PSU is in the Big 10 does not demonstrate enough that it would have statewide following like PSU, and also Pitt, another Big East member may garner more of a following than Temple. However, because it is Philly, it give Philly metro a second team after PSU.
Metro/market size: Major-Major Large: Philadelphia Greater Metro (6 million)
State Market: Pennsylvania – 12.5 million/3rd Team

University of Norte Dame:
AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities – Extensive
USNWR Rating: 1st Tier National University -- #19 Ranking
Distance from Pittsburgh: 370 miles
Distance from Morgantown, WV: 440 miles
Big East member currently: Yes – non-football sports only
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes – But this is a qualified and a Technical yes. Indiana and Purdue are both in the Big 10, but Norte Dame is a very very major national Independent probably has the largest following of the Big 3 teams of the state of Indiana. Very optimal for any conference because of its national standing.
Metro/market size: Mid-major smallish (260,000)
State Market: Indiana – 6 million/1st/2nd/3rd Team depending on how you view UND to IU and PU

U.S. Military Academy (Army):
AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Other Specialized Institutions
USNWR Rating: N/A
Northeast Footprint: Yes
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: No, Syracuse is already in the BE, and Army has a national following – nothing like Norte Dame, but fairly decent.
Metro/market size: Mid-major satellite metro: Newburgh, NY
Major-Major-Major: New York City ~21 million
State Market: New York – 19 million/2nd or 3rd Team depending on how you view UB-SUNY

U.S. Naval Academy (Navy)
AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Other Specialized Institutions
USNWR Rating: N/A
Northeast Footprint: Yes
Distance to New Brunswick, NJ: 190 miles
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes, Maryland is in the ACC, however Navy has a national following – nothing like Norte Dame, but fairly decent.
Metro/market size: Major-Major: 7.6 million (DC/Baltimore)
State Market: Maryland – 5.3 million/2nd Team

*End this edition of posts*


Last edited by sportsgeogoffline on Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:20 pm 
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USNWR ratings are neither valid or reliable as a measure of academic success.Things like doctoral degrees granted,research dollarsare good measures.How, does Miami compare with the other schools.The market place for UCF is much better the Miami of Ohio.The growth of UCF is happening in many phases.


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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:30 pm 
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Quote:

"Any potential football expansion school must Increased Revenue" The Big East has made the point crystal clear.

The question to ask concerning the potential of Big East expanion with Miami Ohio or any other MAC school, how would those schools increase BE revenue.

The BE already has the Cincinatti and Southwest Ohio TV markets with the Bearcats. "No potential revenue on this point"

Attendance for Miami Ohio football is horrible. If the school cant sell out a 30 thousand seat stadium no way many fans travel to BE away games. "Dont see any revenue increase for this point"

Potential to help with minor Bowl alignments. "Not sure that Miami Ohio is looked at as a good bowl team from an attendance point of view".

Bottom line, there is just no potentail for Miami Ohio to increase BE revenue and so Miami Ohio is never going to be considered for BE membership. This is based on facts presented by the BE officials who make the decisions on expansion.

Teams that could potentially increase BE revenue and we will leave out Notre Dame for now as a BE football member.


Lash,

Do you have the exact quotes from the Big East office? Is that where these quotes come from? I'm sure that every conference wants to achieve that goal. But they most likely would balance that priority with the institutional fit as well as future conference raiding potential and configurations -- so the Big East will be vital for the long long term.

Okay...

Another school to consider:

Near-International Date Line Schools:

University of Hawaii at Monoa

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities -- Extensive
USNWR Rating: 3rd Tier National University
Distance to Morgantown, WV: A long, long ways! Its so far west, that its actually EAST!
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: No -- It is currently a WAC team, but if it became a BE team, the BE would be the only game in town, period!
Metro/market size: Mid-major/near Major: Honolulu (~900,000)
State Market: Hawaii -- 1.3 million people/1st and only team in the state!
.
.
.
.
j/k ;) ;D


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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:35 pm 
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Quote:
USNWR ratings are neither valid or reliable as a measure of academic success.Things like doctoral degrees granted,research dollarsare good measures.How, does Miami compare with the other schools.The market place for UCF is much better the Miami of Ohio.The growth of UCF is happening in many phases.


No, its not only graduate and research, its all those three. Before anyone can get to be a graduate student and possibly do some research and provide a institution with research assistants, as well as get a PhD to design, orchestrate and conduct the research, they have to have a bachelor's degree, and it has to be a darn good undergraduate education or the research and graduate education will be weakened and compromised. You need all three, and the rankings reflect institutional capabilities in all three and emphasizes the measurement of the quality of the undergraduate education.


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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:56 pm 
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Quote:
How, does Miami compare with the other schools.The market place for UCF is much better the Miami of Ohio.The growth of UCF is happening in many phases.


UCF is a 4th Tier National University and it is located in a metro area of 1.7 million (Orlando). To be fair, just like Miami (OH), it is also located close to Lakeland metro (450,000) and Tampa/St. Pete (2.3 million) are also not far away as well as Daytona Beach (500,000) So 4 contigious metro areas that are within 100 miles (which is kinda far, but Orlando is 85 miles from Tampa) = 4.9 million. Within this you will have followings for 5 teams: USF in Tampa, U of Florida -- statewide tedancy, FSU -- statewide tendancy, U Miami -- statewide tendancy, and UCF (for immediate Orlando) metro.

Cincinnati and Dayton contigious metro area megalopolis = 3.1 million. Here there is following for 3 teams, primarily. U Cincy, Ohio State and Miami U. Oxford, Dayton, and Cincinnati are all within 70 miles of one another -- that is the greater area of the combined area of both metros -- more compacted than the Orlando-Tampa/St.Pete/Daytona Beach megalopolis.

I see them fairly comparable in market population, as Miami is in an area with less teams that would have followings in the area, and a more compact area and UCF has slightly more population in the 100 mile radius, but has more teams that would have followings, including the 5 mentioned above, and the contigious megalopolis is less compacted than Cincinnati/Dayton.


Last edited by sportsgeogoffline on Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:00 pm 
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sportsgeog, unfortunatly I do not save lot of quotes and probably should follow Black&Gold and others on this board that do a much better job.

I beleive the BE Commish made the quotes during Media day.

Many of the BE athletic directors have made the same statements that a 9th football members has to generate additional revenue to be considered.

While academics are nice benefit if a desirable expansion school is ranked high, conference expansion is all about revenue.

ACC which prides inself on academics expanded with Florida State. Not sure how FSU is ranked today, anyone in the state could usually get into the school in the past that did not qualify for UF. At least this was true when I lived in Florida.

Same was true with Pac 10 expanded with Arizona State. ASU is working to improve its academic standars with stronger admission standards.

To further prove the point, if academics were the driving force, Miami Ohio would have been taken by the BE over Cincinnati.

We all know that Cincinnati basketball program is going to bring a lot of revenue to the BE.

Unfortunately college sports has become big business (revenue) and academics is a after thought. Conference expansion is just reflecting this trend.

Your points are well stated on academics if the BE was trying to compete with the Ivy League. In reality, the conference has to compete against the other 5 BCS conferences. The BCS conferences have revenue as a much bigger priority and so the Big East must do this same to remain a player with the big guys.




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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:14 pm 
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^ Right now, if the BE is going to select a 9th football member, and they wanted to select one that is available right now, it would only have Temple, Army, and Navy to choose from. All other choices take time, they are more long-term candidates (5 years+). This has already been discussed. The opening for all-sports memberships, non-football sports memberships that are comparable to the CUSA or the MAC are very limited if not there at all.

So until room is made in the Big East, or the Big East chooses to expand to 17 to 20 teams, or splits, or the Atlantic 10 goes beyond 14, and assists the Big East and find that that assist benefits them (which is really their only consideration), no team from the CUSA or the MAC will come into the Big East. The only short term choices are Temple, Army, Navy, and Norte Dame.

So expansion is more of a longer term issue or reality for the Big East. Given that it is more long term, many of the considerations for selecting new members, including revenue, institutional fit, Big East exposure will most likely be a part of that long-term planning. U of Louisville, U Cincy, and USF, while being good candidates, were the best choices at the time for selection. UConn demonstrates another model of possible selection. In 5 to 10 years the dynamics of these considerations could change. So that's why CUSA teams are not the only possible candidates for future BE expansion. Teams could come from anyplace east of the Mississippi, including many in current and future Northeast markets.


Last edited by sportsgeogoffline on Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 4:17 pm 
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sportsgeog, I see your point and agree. This is in line with the other comments from BE officials that the conference is in no hurry to look for a 9th football member and will probably remain the same for a long time (5 years is probably the earliest).

Maybe this will allow some of the better academic schools to have time to develop and prove they are ready to move up.

If Miami Ohio is playing good football in five years, there is no reason to think the school could not be a good expansion canidate for the Big East.



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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 6:42 pm 
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Lash,

Fair enough. I agree too.

Yes, we are probably a few years away from seeing the likelihood of another significant realignment of any one particular conference.

This is not to make it seem like its urgent, but since I started on this indexing of schools east of the Mississippi, I am going to try and finish it as I am sort of a completist.


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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 7:18 pm 
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Okay, I didn't say I was going to do it, but I decided to do the Sun Belt schools anyway. These are only the 4 schools east of the Mississippi.

Sun Belt Schools east of the Mississippi

Middle Tennessee State University

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities -- Intensive
USNWR Rating: 4th Tier National University
Distance to Morgantown, WV: 570 miles
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes -- U Tennessee and Vanderbilt are both members of the SEC and it is not certain as to whether MTSU has a statewide following.
Metro/market size: satellite city of Murfreesboro (75,000) in a Major metro area: Nashville (1.4 million)
State Market: Tennessee -- 5.7 million/4th Team

Troy State University

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Master's Colleges and Universities - I
USNWR Rating: Southern Master's/Regional University Tier 2
Distance from Morgantown, WV: 810 miles
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes -- U of Alabama and Auburn are both members of the SEC and it is not certain as to whether Troy State has a statewide following.
Metro/market size: Micropolitan/Rural: Troy (30,000)
State Market size: Alabama -- 4.5 million/4th Team in state.

Florida Atlantic University (FAU)

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities -- Intensive
USNWR Rating: 4th Tier National University
Distance from Morgantown, WV: 1,070 miles
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes -- U of Florida is in the SEC and FSU and Miami are both members of the ACC and it is not certain as to whether FAU has a statewide following.
Metro/market size: Major: West Palm Beach metro division (1.1 million), and Major-Major greater metro area of Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm Beach (5 million)
State Market size: Florida -- 16 million/6th or 7th team in the state depending on how you view FIU.

Florida International University (FIU)

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities -- Extensive
USNWR Rating: 4th Tier National University
Distance from Morgantown, WV: 1,110 miles
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes -- U of Florida is in the SEC and FSU and Miami are both members of the ACC and it is not certain as to whether FAU has a statewide following.
Metro/market size: Major-Major greater metro area of Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm Beach (5 million)
State Market size: Florida -- 16 million/6th or 7th team in the state depending on how you view FAU.


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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 10:12 pm 
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Selected Division 1-AA School Candidates:


Atlantic 10 Football Schools

University of Massachusetts--Amherst

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities -- Extensive
USNWR Rating: 2nd Tier National University -- #91 Ranking
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes -- Boston College will be moving to the ACC in 2005. May overlap with the BE, however, being that UMass is a state flagship school, its fanbase could grow if the facilities and promotion was improved ala the UConn model of move-up.
Northeast Footprint: Yes (ideal for making a rival for UConn)
Metro/Market size: Mid-Major: Springfield (680,000)
State Market size: Massachusetts -- 6.5 million/2nd Team

University of Rhode Island

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities -- Extensive
USNWR Rating: 3rd Tier National University
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: No -- although Boston College, 2005- member of ACC is located less than 100 miles away.
Northeast Footprint: Yes
Metro/Market size: Major: Providence (1.6 million) -- located in an outer rural county of the greater metro area
State Market size: Rhode Island -- 1 million/ 1st Team

University of Richmond

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Master’s Colleges and Universities -- I
USNWR Rating: Southern Master’s/Regional University 1st Tier -- #1 Ranking!
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes -- The University of Virginia and Va Tech are both members of the ACC. It does not appear that U of R has a statewide following.
Northeast Footprint: Near-Northeast
Distance from New Brinswick, NJ: 310 miles
Metro/Market size: Major: Richmond (1.1 million)
State Market size: Virginia -- 7 million/3rd Team

Villanova University

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Master’s Colleges and Universities -- I
USNWR Rating: Northern Master’s/Regional University -- #1 Ranking!
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes – PSU is in the Big 10 does not demonstrate enough that it would have statewide following like PSU, and also Pitt, another Big East member may garner more of a following than Temple. However, because it is Philly, it give Philly metro a second team after PSU.
Northeast Footprint: Yes
Metro/Market size: Major-Major: Philadelphia (6 million)
State Market size: Pennsylvania -- 12.5 million/3rd or 4th team in PA depending on how you view Temple

University of Delaware

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities -- Extensive
USNWR Rating: 2nd Tier National University -- #67 Ranking
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: No -- Although Penn State of the Big 10 and U of Maryland of ACC are not far away.
Northeast Footprint: Yes
Metro/Market size: Mid-Major metro satellite division of Philadelphia metro -- Wilmington, DE (650,000); Major-Major Metro: Greater Philadelphia metro area (6 million)
State Market size: Delaware -- 800,000/1st team of the state

University of Maine -- Orono

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities -- Extensive
USNWR Rating: 3rd Tier National University
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: No -- although Boston College of the ACC is somewhat an historical New England team
Northeast Footprint: Yes
Metro/Market size: Small: Bangor (150,000)
State Market size: Maine -- 1.3 million/1st Team

University of New Hampshire

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities -- Extensive
USNWR Rating: 2nd Tier National University -- #95 Ranking
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: No -- Although Boston College of the ACC is not far away
Northeast Footprint: Yes
Metro/Market size: Mid-major Metropolitan Division: Rockingham-Stratford, NH (390,000) of the Greater Boston Metro Area (5.7 million)
State Market size: New Hampshire -- 1.2 million/1st Team

Patriot League Football Schools:

Fordham University

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities -- Extensive
USNWR Rating: 2nd Tier National University -- #84 Ranking
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: No -- Syracuse is already in the Big East
Northeast Footprint: Yes
Metro/Market size: Major-Major-Major Metro: New York City Greater metro area (21 million)
State Market size: New York -- 19 million/2nd or 3rd or 4th Team depending on how you view Buffalo and Army

Georgetown University

AAU: No
Carnegie Foundation Classification: Doctoral/Research Universities -- Extensive
USNWR Rating: 1st Tier National University -- #23 Ranking
Overlapping of another major conference that may make the BE a secondary conference/Teams in other conferences in state: Yes and No -- No teams in the District of Columbia, However the University of Maryland is adjacently located in suburban DC in College Park, MD
Northeast Footprint: Yes
Metro/Market size: Major-Major-Major Metro: Washington D.C-Balitmore (7.6 million)
State Market size: District of Columbia -- 550,000/1st Team; also Maryland -- 5.4 million, and Virginia -- 7 million


Last edited by sportsgeog on Wed Aug 04, 2004 10:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2004 11:56 pm 
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I'm with Lash on Miami. No revenue increase. Now if attendance did increase and they continued to win, they could be considered, but they would still have almost no probability unless the BE went to 12. Even then, I think it is doubtful.

I don't know how much statewide following they really have. I have never lived (or for that matter even been in) in Cleveland. In Dayton, Dayton is the "home team." In Cincinnati its Cincinnati with Xavier 2nd. Miami is unfortunately between the two cities. There is support, but they are well down in media coverage. Look at the sports in the Cincy paper (http://www.enquirer.com/today/local.html) and you will see the Bearcats, but not the Redhawks. Cincy-Dayton is a nice market, but the BE already has a good piece.

Tigershark, your focus only on research $ and the number of grad programs makes USNWR look like a good system! It clearly has major shortcomings, but at least it does consider more than just 2 factors. The idea that Cincinnati, Louisville and USF (and UConn and WVU for that matter) are in a class above Miami is just laughable. None are in as high a class as Miami.


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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:04 am 
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TS-by comparison, I can think of a lot of liberal arts colleges with limited grad programs whose degrees are held in much higher regard than most of the BE. In Kentucky, Centre College and Transylvania University are more highly regarded than Louisville, Cincinnati or even UK.

As SG is pointing out, I think a Miami or William and Mary would have an edge over schools with similar characteristics who weren't as highly regarded, even if they had fewer grad programs.


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 Post subject: Big East - 12 team model
PostPosted: Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:21 am 
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Potential BE candidates in order of liklihood IMO assuming 12 teams:

Memphis
ECU
UMass
Temple
UCF
Navy
Army
Marshall
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Western Michigan
Tulane
Southern Miss
Ohio
Miami
Buffalo
Villanova
Delaware
Fordham

I don't see anyone else having the remotests chance. And the last 4 on the list + UMass would all require moving up to the I-A level (Buffalo is there only in name), which I think is unlikely in the next 5 years for the last 4.

Marshall is #8 on my list and I consider them fairly remote. Army and Navy at #7 and #6 are pretty remote too as I don't think they can compete in the long run if the BE gets where it wants to be. I think the BE will want proven teams. Ohio and Miami haven't proven attendance, so they rank below distant So. Miss and Tulane. N. Illinois hasn't proven attendance, but they might if they start winning and they have the advantage of being in a huge market.

SG, I think you underestimate the current market for ECU and the potential for Memphis. Memphis is a long way from Knoxville. You make a good point about their market being only 1.5 times as big as Delaware's, but they have the potential to becoming the team west of Nashville. As for ECU, they are really #3 except for basketball. And they do have a statewide following. They have over 20,000 students and draw a lot of people who don't get into UNC or NCSU. According to ECU fans, they sold out Ericsson Stadium in Charlotte for a game with NCSU a few years back and had half the crowd. I would view them much like Texas Tech. They are way behind the Big 2 state schools, but have a stronghold in a relatively lightly populated region of the state, but have alumni all over.


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