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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:03 pm 
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Since we have a Big East 12 team model less have a 10 team debate.

With the 12 team regular season football schedule almost in the bag, 10 team conferences are ideal for round robin sports in both bb and fb.

Proposed scenerio 1:
Syracuse, UConn, Rutgers, Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida -- add Central Florida and ? just cant think of the best team for 10

so --

Proposed scenerio 2:

Syracuse, UConn, Rutgers, Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Central Florida for 9 team round robin football and Notre Dame for all sports except football.

We have discussed these scenerios before, however, bored with the summer and no football so need to rehash things!


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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:12 pm 
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The 10 team model is the football and the 16 team the bb model.


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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:24 pm 
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^ You know my response.

Immediate 10-team model (2006)

UConn
Rutgers
Syracuse
Temple*
Navy*
Pitt
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
USF

*Football Only members, the 16-team bball league stays intact.

All Sports 10 team league (year 2010), with the Big East-16 Bball league splitting to form new league with current 8 teams + 2, which follow:

UConn
Rutgers
Syracuse
Temple
Pitt
West Virginia
Marshall
Cincinnati
Louisville
USF

This becomes a league by itself

If its a planned 10-year All-Sports model (2015), then this:

UConn
UMass
Rutgers
Syracuse
Temple
Pitt
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
USF


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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:54 pm 
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Temple is out,UMASS gets 8k to games and if it goes 1A it will be to MAC left over.Marshall a JC with a 1A football team.


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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:29 pm 
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^TS2, you're too stuck on what is now. The Big East needs NE Footprint, market, athletic performance, and academics. It doesn't need to become a "southern conference", it needs to be a NE conference. There are not that many choices other than 1AA Team move-ups in the NE footprint, except Navy, Army, Temple, and Marshall.

Marshall is a good fit, except academics and market. I think its a better fit than Memphis, which only offere 1.5 million market (not much bigger than Marshall), 38 K in stands when good, 25 K in stands when bad (so not much different than Marshall), and Memphis doesn't offer anything different academically and is 800 miles out of the NE footprint, and a southern team. So Marshall has advantages over these farher-out southern teams.

Maybe before U.S. Senator Robert Byrd dies, he will get a bunch of Federal $ to rapidly expand Marshall University to more National Unviersity. He already, I believe, got some funds to build a Medical School at Marshall, so it has that.

It has great football teams and is relatively in the near-northeast footprint.


Last edited by sportsgeog on Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 2:49 am 
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Marshal in no way is good for the BE.(Education wise,location wise or market wise)Temple is a long time joke to BE football that is not coming back.UMASS is not UCONN.It is certainly very possible that Army and Navy will share the 9th spot in BE football.UCFLA would have to exit CUSA for all sportsd to play BE football,they decided against this last year.You are stuck with reality and the choices of the BE.


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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:42 am 
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^Yes, in order for numerous teams to join the BE, so the football conference can expand, the BE would have to split, unless the BE goes to 17 to 20 members in its bball league, or the A 10 expands by 1 or 2 to go to 16 so that football only members can have a place to put their other sports.

So if the BE doesn't split, the only current 1-A members that could join are again, as we have discussed already:

Temple
Army
Navy
Norte Dame (theoretically possible, but not likely).

But in 5 to 10 years, if the BE does split then Marshall is good pick considering the other choices out there, and 1-AA move-ups in the NE footprint are choices that could be looked at. Otherwise if the BE chooses more southern teams it becomes a southern conference and a deFacto CUSA.

I doubt UConn got much more than 8K when they were 1-AA. Their Stadium in Storrs was the same size as UMass' is.

The Massachusetts pop of 6.5 million, BC and a 2nd 1-A team, that's a better market than all other states. Just requires marketing a new stadium and expanded facilities, A 10 year plan is possible.


Last edited by sportsgeog on Fri Aug 13, 2004 6:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:04 am 
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Here are UConn's Average Attendance records for the last 7 years:

1997: 8,230
1998: 9,293
1999: 9,628
2000: 14,166
2001: 14,536
2002: 15,807
2003: 37,059



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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:45 am 
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Sportsgeog, The Big East should hire you! Your vision is exactly what they need. 8-)

I agree with you completely. UMass has demonstrated in the past decade that a Final Four basketball program at the D-I level can be built there & that a NC football program at the I-AA level can be built there. In a very similar location to UConn, attendance will follow a successful program upgrade. Build it & they will come! All they need is commitment.

I will add to your analysis of their location simply by pointing out that location is important for recruiting as well as for a potential fan base. While BC is in the same state, MA is surrounded by 4 small New England states, which combined total almost 4 mill in population & no I-A program - plenty of extra athletes to choose from for 3 I-A New England programs (in addition to the 10 mill in MA & CT).

Furthermore New York State sits on Mass's western border with 19 million prople & only 1 BCS program (Syracuse) & one other I-A program, Army, whose recruiting is of necessity national rather than local or even regional because of the unique constraints on its admissions procedures.


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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 12:11 pm 
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It would be ideal for Temple and UMass to bring the BE to a 10 member football conference however there is a big if!

I agree with Tigershark in this case as Temple and UMass are very long shots to improve to level of football required to be a member of the future Big East all sports conference.

Not sure New England can support 3 major football programs. The northeast population is not proportioned in football support as soccer and other sports. Boston College is now forced to requit New York and New Jersey to get the type of players to compete in 1A football.

Temple is competing as a 1AA type school and just dont see much improvement in the next five years. Without BE membership the school will further decline.

If the BE is going to split it will occur within the next 5 years. There is a standing rumor that the conference will stay to gether for five years and then rethink alignments.

In 5 years, just dont see UMass gaining enough momentum to upgrade to 1A. Look how long UConn has been in the works and really was not suppose to be in the BE until next year and sharing revenue until 2010.

Once the BE builds back football as it will with BCS membership, a Northeast footprint is not important if a split were to occur.

Without the BE basketball only schools, a 10 team all sports BE would not be out of sync with Central Fla and Memphis.

The current format makes Memphis look very southern, however a 10 member BE all sports conference will actually look apporpriate geographically with Memphis and Central Fla.

Other than eastern loyalty, the following 10 member BE conference would generate the same amout of revenue per team as the new 16 team BE alignment.

Syracuse, UConn, Rutgers, Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, South Florida, and Central Florida

If a split is to occur and we will know if 5 years, a 10 team format will be the likely choice and the northeast foot print will be a non issue.

At this point the best two schools to bring the BE to 10 all sports members east of the Mississippi are Central Florida and Memphis.

The only way I see the BE remaining together with 16 is if the BE loses the BCS membership. I dont think this is likley and thus a split is most likley to take place in 5 years. UMass and Temple will not be in ready to join the fast train out.

With Louisville and Cincinnati along with traditional BE football basketball powers, the BE will look for schools that can bring something to the table other than basketball.

Both Memphis and Central Florida bring potential new bowl sites that will become very important in the next few years. At this point UMass and Temple bring nothing to a Big East all sports conference that cant be achieved with some other south eastern schools.



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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 12:18 pm 
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Assuming a split and a decision to stay at 10 teams, I would add Temple as #9. Force their admin to give some committments for marketing the team. Philly is too important a market to leave out and Temple adds a national bb power.

As I've said, IMO Memphis is a good potential add, but in a 10 team model, I would get someone closer. I would add ECU to get someone who draws well and competes well in fb.

Adding another Florida team helps USF, but with 2 Florida teams, it means you almost certainly have to go there in nearly all your sports each year.

I don't think the BE can afford both Temple and UMass unless 1)Temple first became competitive and started drawing 30k a game or 2)Rutgers and UConn both became consistently competetive and demonstrated they belonged in I-A. UMass and Temple would be the best in a 10 team model in that scenario.

I do think, if UMass can get the support from private or state sources to build a stadium (obviously they have not been able to yet), they have the potential to be reasonably successful in I-A. I just think it would kill the BE in national reputation and TV contracts for fb if the BE was the Big 3 (SU, Pitt, WVU), the CUSA 3 (UL, UC, USF) and the I-AA level 4 (UMass, UConn, Temple, Rutgers). I realize UConn did win 8 games last year, but it remains to be seen whether they will be competitive with a schedule that doesn't consist of the Kent St., Buffalos and Akrons.


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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 12:38 pm 
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Lash does make a good point about bowl sites at Memphis and Orlando. That has been a factor in other conference expansions. One of the advantages of ECU is that their fans travel well. MWC schools tend not to and having San Diego St. did not allow them to hold onto the Holiday Bowl.

My additions are my preference. I think there is some bad blood between the BE and Temple and so in 5 years I don't think Temple will be selected. Also, the presidents won't want to admit they made a mistake by kicking them out in the first place. I've also got to agree with Lash, that UMass won't be there in 5 years. They've been talking about it for at least 10 years.

UMass needs some wealthy alumni to provide support for a stadium, like SMU had when one man donated $20 million. The state, unlike Connecticut, seems uninterested. With the multitude of private schools, the politics are different than in Connecticut. They have not been able to find state or private support.

I do think UMass has potential if they can get over that hurdle. FB talent is thinner in the NE, but the number of I-A teams is dramatically thinner. Also, NJ talent tends to go to the B10 or ACC now. Also, they can recruit nationally. Tennessee does. Everyone recruits CA, TX or FL. Several MAC schools recruit Canadians. Kentucky had some success when they had a coach who came from Georgia and originally was from Texas. The team was about 25% Texans, 25% Georgians, 25% Kentuckians and 25% from surrounding states. UMass did draw around 12k the year they won the I-AA championship, and as Sportgeog showed, UConn has climbed in attendance. Other than Northeastern and UC-Davis, UMass is the largest school in I-AA. They would be in the top half of I-A. They are the predominant state school in a well populated state. They are in a typical college type metro area (much like SEC and B12 schools) with sufficient population and little enough pro competition.


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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 12:51 pm 
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^Memphis and UCF would establish the Big East as a Southern Conference.

1/2 of the conference members in such an alignment would be in the shadows of very major football powers in competing BCS conferences --> SEC, ACC, and the Big 10. The following schools, which are powerhouses, will overshadow them quite a bit:

Tennessee
Mississippi
Ohio State
Penn State
Florida
Florida State
Miami

Thats a big load to overcome.

Memphis is a market of 1.5 million people (West Tennessee, all counties west of the Tennessee River in Tennessee). Memphis does not demonstrate that it would have much of a following east of that River. There is no statewide overlap for that school in market. It may have a small handfull of followers in the nearby Arkansas and Mississippi suburbs, but conventional wisdom demonstrates that Ole Miss, Miss State, U Ark, Ark State would dramatically overshadow a Memphis following outside the state's boundaries. If the U Memphis was a NFL Team, then it would go deep into Mississippi and Arkansas for following, picking up the mid-major metro of Little Rock (~600K and 140 miles to the west). But it is not and its way bigger competitors is at Memphis doors (state lines).

In 30 years it will have about 1.9 million people. The area between Memphis and Nashville is predominantly rural and will not grow, and perhaps may even lose people. The only place that this market will grow is around the City of Memphis, and the Memphis suburbs.

But this market isn't purely Memphis. You have Tennessee that is on the same footing as Memphis, as it has a statewide overlay (+ the UTenn Medical School is located in Memphis -- may be big allumni base there), plus Vandy may have some following there, as well as a very small followings for UT-Martin and perhaps Austin Peay (located just outside West Tennessee in the North in Clarksville), as well as Tenn State, and Tenn Tech, and MTSU that pick up a bit of following just immediately west of Nashville.

Now how does Memphis compare to Marshall?

That 1st or 2nd or even 3rd Team status in a broad market of 1.5 million that could grow to 1.9 million.

Not much different. Slightly bigger, but not much different.

West Virginia is 1.8 million. It won't grow much, that is true. Marshall is its 2nd Team. It would be in the shadow of WVU, that's true. But with this 2nd status, it being in the 2nd largest metro area of the state (Huntington at 280,000) and within 1 hour of the largest market (Charleston at 300,000), and as WVU is a small state, that 1.8 million is not far from Huntington. It has more potential to go statewide as a pure 2nd Team. I would conclude that their immediate market is 280,000, their regional market is ~600,000 (Hunt/Charleston), and their share of West Virginia is 900,000, with it being a 2nd Team throughout this 1.8 million populated state -- about the same status as Memphis.

They get ~30,000 at their games, about the same as Memphis. Their academics isn't much different, Memphis is a 4th Tier school, and Marshall is a Regional University. Both don't fit academically. But Marshall has demonstrated that it can put forth good football teams, beating #6 KSU, as well as an undefeated season. Memphis has had 1 bowl season in the last 30 years, and can demonstrate that attendance will be down in the down years.

Memphis is 800 miles from the NE Footprint. Marshall is in the near-northeast footprint. Bottom line is Marshall is more advantageous than Memphis, because of this.

UCF presents another issue. It too doesn't have good institutional fit. Its near USF. But in a combined coast to coast Central-Tampa Bay-Orlando greater market of 4.9 million, and it will grow, it will be competing against USF for promenence. This added to the sublime status of the triad -- UFla, FSU, and Miami. Texas has 4 BCS schools, 3 that are competitive, and one that's iffy, and 1 program that is non-BCS that is competitive. California has 4 BCS schools and 1 competitive non-BCS school. But it has twice the pop of Florida. Can Florida have 5 BCS schools? 4, yes, but I can't see 5.

UCF had a good record in bball, last year, but that was in the A-Sun. Its football team was not good last year, and they haven't had a good year since the late 90's with Duante Culpepper. They are not really as competitive since. Last year there attendance was ~24K. Less than Marshall. In 2002 it was 22K. In 2001 ~20K, There were 27 K in 2000, 22K in 1999, and 23 K in 1998. Its attendance isn't that much better than U Delaware, or for that matter, like Temple.

It advantages are its market and being a travel partner. Its disadvantages is that it would be Florida's 5th team (and Texas and California, which are quite bigger, demonstrate that 4 to 5 is the max you can have in their states). There's a potential that they could be another Temple or another Baylor. And also it would be a competitor to USF. Its also not a good institutional fit.

If the Big East drifts further into the south, it becomes a Defacto CUSA. It will be a shadow of three of the other 5 conferences. There will not be a majority of the teams out front in their region and could become more obscure.

I think there is actually more risk to expand 5 years from now, then there is to wait for 10 years to expand, and begin to plan for that expansion in 2010. You may just be interchanging one Temple for another. If this is the case, might as well keep them as they offer the advantage of the Philly market, even if they are a 2nd team, as well as the northeast footprint and a better institutional fit.


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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:07 pm 
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I just saw the 2005 Temple schedule posted, which was interesting:

Home
Maryland, NCSU, both Miamis, Middle Tennessee, Navy and Toledo

Road
Arizona St., Bowling Green, Clemson, Virginia

Interesting that there are no BE schools, but 5 ACC schools, 3 playing in Philly. Miami (FL) is even playing them in Philly.


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 Post subject: Big East - 10 team model
PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:10 pm 
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^Also, the Capital One Bowl is not going to give up the SEC or the Big 10 for the Big East.

They lick their chops at a Ohio State vs. Auburn game. They are not going to be licking their chops at a UConn vs. Auburn game, or for that matter a UCF vs. Auburn game or a USF vs. Auburn game. Why give up Ohio State or Purdue or Iowa or Wisconsin for UCincy, UConn, Rutgers or U Louisville? Pitt, WVU, or Syracuse don't sound too bad, but they are not Penn State or Michigan State or Michigan.

The Liberty Bowl might be possible. It needs to be replaced or major repairs. I don't see an expansion NFL team there for 10 to 20 years. But even if they do get it, its not much different than the Insight Bowl or the Continental Tire Bowl. The Liberty Bowl could become the BE vs. CUSA.


Last edited by sportsgeogoffline on Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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