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PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2005 4:52 pm 

Joined: Fri May 02, 2003 12:39 pm
Posts: 1215
What follows are four posts with snapshots of information related to several schools I've heard discussed here and elsewhere as candidates for inclusion in an all-sports line up with the current BE football conference. As always, this is intended as a resource and reference for the discussions here and at other threads and boards. NOTHING IS INTENDED TO SUGGEST SCHOOL 'A' IS CLEARLY BETTER THAN SCHOOL "B", ETC. I only called these rankings to call your attention and to suggest there is value in comparing figures for partial arguments. I will say that after doing some investigating I've altered my tune, somewhat, on what I'd prefer the conference adopt if indeed heading toward a 10 or 12 member format.

Where you see BE or NBE that represents the value for the 8 members set to play BE football in 2005:
South Florida

For those curious, Fordham has been suggested (humorously?) in the imagination that they could use the Jets proposed stadium in Manhattan and allow the conference a NYC foothold. I wanted to see how they shakedown next to the others.

Miami of Ohio was not included as that appeared too close to CIncinnati for comfort.

Thhis also assumes we all know the merits and realities of involving ND, PSU or the acadamies.

I'll offer my own insights and observations later.

Last edited by gunnerfan on Wed Feb 02, 2005 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2005 4:58 pm 

Joined: Fri May 02, 2003 12:39 pm
Posts: 1215
Men's Football

This would be the strongest reason for expansion: It invites balanced conference schedules and would aid the conference in standing apart from the rest of the non-BCS field.

Average Attendance
School Stad_Capacity 2004_Att 1996 - 2004
ECU 43,000 30,684 33,652
Memphis 62,380 41,175 30,280
Marshall 38,019 25,933 26,944
So Miss 33,000 28,964 26,049
Toledo 26,248 24,025 24,758
Tulane 69,767 22,829 23,559
UCF 70,188 19,952 22,132
Delaware 22,000 21,055 20,088
Ohio 24,000 15,979 18,917
UAB 83,091 20,606 18,820
Temple 66,592 16,456 15,708
Umass 17,000 8,838 9,978
Fordham 7,000 4,008 4,222
NBE Average 50275 36,795 36,045

No one is going to help the conference raise the overall average attendance, but some clearly standout. Take into account the potential for improvement based upon a "move up" in conference and national perception and several candidates appear worthy fits, at least

Performance 1996-2004
W Percent Win. Sea. Bowl Apps.
Marshall 0.803 8 7
Delaware 0.707 7
Toledo 0.694 9 3
Southern Miss. 0.648 9 7
Massachusetts 0.583 7
Tulane 0.490 4 2
UAB 0.480 3 1
East Carolina 0.471 4 3
UCF 0.455 4 0
Fordham 0.445 3
Memphis 0.427 3 2
Ohio 0.412 3 0
Temple 0.227 0 0

Win Sea = Winning Seasons in this time frame
Bowl App = # of bowl appearances

Obviously Delware, Fordham and UMass did not go to any bowl games as their 1-AA schools. However UD and UMass have won AA national titles within this time frame and often finished atop their conference.

Last edited by gunnerfan on Wed Feb 02, 2005 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2005 5:04 pm 

Joined: Fri May 02, 2003 12:39 pm
Posts: 1215
Men's Basketball

Clearly the anchor sport of the conference no matter what moves are made for football.
Average Attendance
School 2004_Att 2000 - 2004
Memphis 15,432 15,432
Temple 5,782 5,782
ECU 5,307 5,307
Toledo 5,292 5,292
UAB 4,909 4,909
Ohio 4,514 4,514
Delaware 4,436 4,436
Marshall 4,434 4,434
So Miss 3,683 3,683
Umass 3,192 3,192
Fordham 2,105 2,105
UCF 1,884 1,884
Tulane 1,759 1,759
NBE Average 11,794 11,180

RPI Rankings
(From Ken Pomrey)

2000-2004 2004
# Rank # Rank
Temple 0.567 62 0.535 100
Memphis 0.563 69 0.596 32
UAB 0.541 97 0.596 33
Toledo 0.527 111 0.540 91
So Miss 0.525 118 0.516 123
Delaware 0.521 122 0.511 130
Umass 0.514 132 0.486 174
Ohio 0.513 134 0.457 231
Marshall 0.508 144 0.499 150
Tulane 0.500 153 0.483 181
UCF 0.493 164 0.565 62
ECU 0.486 175 0.498 151
Fordham 0.473 203 0.466 211
NBE Average 0.575 61.225 0.588 54.625

Last edited by gunnerfan on Wed Feb 02, 2005 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2005 5:07 pm 

Joined: Fri May 02, 2003 12:39 pm
Posts: 1215
Varsity Athletic Department Budgets

- Information from the US Dept. of Education
- Represents reporting year 03-04
- Figures represent millions of dollars

Basketball Football All Sports
Revenue Expenses Revenue Expenses Revenue Expenses
Temple 2.92 2.92 7.98 7.98 22.75 22.75
Memphis 5.26 3.94 4.88 6.20 22.50 22.50
Tulane 1.61 0.86 6.45 3.02 20.63 12.16
UCF 0.23 0.74 1.74 5.36 18.90 19.15
ECU 1.12 1.58 5.89 5.84 18.35 18.95
Umass 1.15 2.54 0.75 3.81 18.01 18.65
So Miss 0.79 1.26 4.85 5.64 16.69 15.95
Marshall 1.07 1.25 5.43 4.32 16.46 15.79
UAB 1.77 1.62 5.16 5.12 15.45 15.45
Fordham 1.58 1.50 3.43 3.26 13.62 13.09
Delaware 1.25 1.05 4.69 3.25 13.25 13.16
Ohio 1.05 0.98 3.34 3.32 12.95 12.94
Toledo 0.61 1.13 1.34 4.49 2.12 15.13
BE Avg 6.76 3.27 10.58 8.40 32.34 30.68

PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2005 5:08 pm 

Joined: Fri May 02, 2003 12:39 pm
Posts: 1215
Institutional comparisons

Undergrads I_Type Market Metro Pop (>12 yo)
UCF 25,819 U/M Orlando 1,360,200
Temple 18,830 U/M Philadelphia 4,334,000
Massachusetts 17,719 LG Springfield 533,700
East Carolina 16,935 HN Greenville 489,300
Ohio 16,011 HC NA
Memphis 15,209 U/M Memphis 1,037,400
Delaware 14,816 LG Wilmington 577,700
Toledo 13,773 U/M Toledo 518,500
Southern Miss. 11,768 HN Hattiesburg
Marshall 8,277 HN Huntington 271,400
UAB 7,723 U/M Birmingham 858,000
Tulane 5,850 Pvt* New Orleans 1,079,300
Fordham 5,027 Pvt NYC 15,283,100
NBE Avg. 17,050 1,520,000

Undergrads = Total full time undergraduate enrollment for 03-04 year
I_Type = Classification of institution
U/M - Urban Land Grant or metropolitan research institution w/doctoral degree programs
LG - Land Grant/ State Flagship institution w/doctoral degree programs
HN - Historic Normal (teaching) institution w/masters programs, some doctoral
Pvt - Private institution w/doctoral degree programs
HC - Historic Comprehensive research institution with some doctoral degree programs
* - Member of American Association of Universities (AAU) national research affiliation
Market = Affiliated metro market
Metro Pop = metro area population above age 12

Clearly the smaller schools like Fordham and Tulane will not command their metro markets. Further, schools like WVU and ECU are likely to draw interests outside their own smaller markets.

Last edited by gunnerfan on Wed Feb 02, 2005 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2005 9:24 pm 

Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2002 12:21 pm
Posts: 1916
The prospect ND playing at Giants one game per yearevery year and playing 3 -4 bE games per year.Add to that ND will Navy in Baltimore every other year and likely play Army at the Meadowlands every other year.This is the basis for BE expansion.Next the academies will need to add 3-4 games per year with BE teams.

PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2005 10:39 pm 

Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 8:08 pm
Posts: 979
Great data Gunnerfan!

Below is a list of I-AA schools based on number of students (there is definitely an argument that your undergraduate enrollment is a more relevant measure for fb support-however, I happen to have the total enrollment data). I listed the top 40 as Montana who is often mentioned is #40 (Montana St. is #41).

1 Northeastern 29,712
2 California-Davis 28,269
3 Massachusetts 24,062
4 Sacramento State 23,319
5 Penn 22,469
6 Southern Illinois 21,873
7 Texas State 21,302
8 Illinois State 21,183
9 Northern Arizona 18,817
10 SW Missouri State 18,718
11 Harvard 18,556
12 Cornell 18,449
13 Delaware 18,015
14 Stony Brook 17,205
15 Eastern Kentucky 16,391
16 Albany 16,000
17 Cal Poly-SLO-s 15,477
18 Western Kentucky 15,335
19 Towson State 14,696
20 Fordham 14,611
21 Youngstown State 14,501
22 Portland State 14,486
23 Weber State 14,447
24 Georgia Southern 14,191
25 Western Illinois 12,877
26 Sam Houston State 12,800
27 Northern Iowa 12,717
28 SF Austin State 12,493
29 New Hampshire 12,397
30 Georgetown 12,321
31 Indiana State 12,181
32 Hofstra 11,998
33 Appalachian State 11,641
34 Eastern Illinois 11,395
35 James Madison 11,354
36 Maine 11,343
37 Rhode Island 11,280
38 Villanova 11,039
39 Yale 10,844
40 Montana 10,828

PostPosted: Wed Feb 02, 2005 11:05 pm 

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:09 pm
Posts: 1540
A little too much time on our hands, Gunner? ;D

I think these numbers can be misleading . . . sort of like setting your direction by looking in the rear view mirror. For example, Army has great attendance numbers - as good as anyone on the list - but they make no sense as a candidate for a top shelf all-sports conference.

IMO, commitment is far more important than past performance. Build it & they will come.

I remain convinced that UMass & Delaware are the two best prospects for BE expansion - IF they make the commitment. If you look back before their decision to go I-A, you could have found attendance numbers for UConn similar to UMass - & a small stadium. The only difference is that the performance of the UConn team on the field wasn't as good as UMass has been.But once the commitment was made, everything changed. I don't think anyone now doubts that the UConn addition was a good decision & that they will be very successful.

It's all about the vision thing.

Last edited by friarfan on Fri Feb 04, 2005 9:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

PostPosted: Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:34 pm 

Joined: Fri May 02, 2003 12:39 pm
Posts: 1215
Okay, we get it. Seriously, we hear where you're coming from. Again. Should we just turn the board off, then?

Thanks. I stuck with full time undergrad as a way of filtering that whole "commuter school" concept. Neither is an absolute concerning the issue of fan support, this just happened to be the batch of apples I had easy access to!

Let's just say I needed a distraction the past couple of days, plus I've had the attendance stats on hand since, well, a good while.

I understand your concerns, and as I hinted this isn't some end-all-be-all analysis. I agree potential and committment goes a long way, longer than anything I've collected here.

I'm with you in the Delaware/UMass camp, a staunch supporter of building as much as possible within the northeastern footprint. This thread was built out of my wanting to know some things of how those AA schools compared to the other more popular candidates to help with my own discussions. I also wanted to see how Delaware and UMass compared to each other in the event the BE would/could only grow one AA school. Off the cuff I now think there's more potential in UMass especially given their larger statewide market, despite Delaware's appearing poised for an easier transition.

I think that market thing has a crucial angle I'm learning more about. Though there's no scientific formula for this obviously some value is discerned from a school's immediate metro area and their ability to draw attention from the state and the region. In this respect, I don't see So Miss or Marshall being able to provide an net increase in revenue to the BE coffers unless as #12 and bringing a championship game with them. Other things I learned:

- UAB appears better equipped to grow than I previously suspected, but their student population is considerably lower than anticipated;
- I did not know ECU drew that well for such comparably poor basketball, but they've only played CUSA bball for a few years now;
- Toledo looks deserving of more consideration. Another "Louisville lite" in potential but certainly appearing to fit the general BE mode;
- Temple must be their own worst enemy because they have all the trappings of a school capable of matching Pitt and Cincy in the athletic program department.

Information is what you make of it and I simply wanted to see some of these figures for myself in this context. I've also made clear that if/when this type of expansion is proposed it should be with conditions and standards to ensure everyone matches the level of committment expected. But the potential is there. For all my want to see ECU "rescued" from this CUSA line-up, I'd rank my expected nominees to fall like so:


Now, five years from now all bets are off.... ;D

PostPosted: Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:11 pm 

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:09 pm
Posts: 1540
Gunner, I hope you know that I was just teasing you. :) Your work was much appreciated. I'll reply to your post after I've had a chance to digest it.


Last edited by friarfan on Thu Feb 03, 2005 10:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

PostPosted: Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:53 pm 

Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2002 12:21 pm
Posts: 1916
I thought expansion items were based on some reality.If Umass or Delaware were going 1A they would be going toward the MAC not the BE.If the BE want Memphis they could have had them.Last week the the story on ND playing 1 game per year at the Meadowlands.This is certainly an important part of the BE football expansion.

PostPosted: Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:26 pm 

Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 8:08 pm
Posts: 979
I have a quick rule of thumb with commuter schools. Divide the total student population by 2 in order to compare with other schools. If you look at attendance for Houston vs. Texas Tech or Minnesota (semi-commuter) vs. Wisconsin you will see what I mean.

And since I have total students handy:
Central Florida 38598
Temple 32351
Massachusetts 24062
Toledo 20889
East Carolina 20577
Ohio 20528
Memphis 19797
Delaware 18015
Alabama-Birmingham 15579
Southern Mississippi 15267
Fordham 14611
Marshall 13788
Tulane 12759

UAB is still not that big.

PostPosted: Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:52 pm 

Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 8:08 pm
Posts: 979
One team not mentioned that might become a possibility is Northern Illinois. Chicago is a very tempting market, especially after a split. If NIU continues to improve they could become a contender.

I would say size makes Fordham, UAB, Tulane, USM and Marshall non-contenders. Geography doesn't help the last 4 (3 too far away, 1 too close to WVU). Even USM's continued fb competitiveness doesn't offset their other weakenesses.

I think UCF's and Ohio U.'s recent lack of success makes them non-contenders now, but 5 years could change that.

That leaves ECU, Memphis, Toledo, Temple, Delaware and UMass. One of those schools just got kicked out and 2 are I-AA with no intention of going I-A now.

The lack of candidates tells me 10 is a better number now than 12.

Your numbers support the idea that Memphis should be #9. I agree on the NE base and this #10 should be a northeastern team. UMass just has more potential than Delaware. Since Temple just got kicked out, they don't seem likely to be re-admitted soon. I think the BE should tell UMass they can get in if they can put together the necessary finances. That committment could help UMass get the necessary committments.

1. Memphis
2. UMass
3. Temple (my choice-BE probably has them #13 of 13)
4. ECU

I think its critical the BE shore up eastern bb (I'm assuming a split from the bb schools) and maintain themselves as one of the "Big 6" bb conferences. Football may be the main money sport, but in the short run bb is important. And I think the CUSA has shown that strong bb can help fb. And there is noone who guarantees anything in fb right now.

One other item in their thinking (see MWC for how not to do it) is future divisions in a 12 team conference. Do you have 6 traditional eastern teams (UConn, SU, Rutgers, WVU, Pitt + 1 other) or do you think of Cincy, UL, WVU and Pitt as one group and SU, UConn & Rutgers as the other and work from there? In the first case you only add one other eastern team. In the 2nd you may add several or you may put ECU, UCF & USF with the eastern schools.

They may also want to think about whether as a strategy they want to challenge the SEC, ACC or Big 10 as opposed to looking at individual schools. The current BE is challenging the Big 10 with ND, DePaul & Marquette. In that scenario, you are looking for MAC teams to grow. Maybe you add NIU, WMU and Toledo along with one other school.

PostPosted: Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:12 am 

Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2002 12:21 pm
Posts: 1916
Yes lets downgrade the BE football league by adding a whole series of teams from 1AA or the MAC.

PostPosted: Fri Feb 04, 2005 8:25 am 

Joined: Tue May 06, 2003 6:19 pm
Posts: 68
Wait, don't Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida qualify as I-AA/MAC?

Wasn't Cincinnati a charter member of the MAC and a I-AA member as recently as 1983?

Isn't Louisville a member of the MAC?

Wasn't South Florida a member of I-AA as recently as 2000?

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