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PostPosted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 8:06 pm 
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http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4979435

"You can each come up with a scenario that would force our hand,"(Swarbrick) told a small group of reporters at a Manhattan restaurant.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 10, 2010 10:32 am 
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NYTimes article(previously posted in another thread) with more ND to a conference talk at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/10/sport ... irish.html


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 10, 2010 11:46 am 
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Ahh....

I've long suspected that the smart folks at Notre Dame realize they just might be better off in joining the Big Ten, but have to manage the P.R. to grease the wheels for this move. Notre Dame is clearly the first choice of the Big Ten.
I suspect Notre Dame would like some cover for how this will go down, to lessen the outcry for those poor souls clinging to some nebulous beneift of "independence". "Our hand is being forced !" says Swarbick...

Notre Dame COULD stand to reject an invitation to join a Big Ten expanded to 12. If the Big Ten were to go to 16, I think it would start the ball rolling toward four 16-team super-conferences (the Big East and Big XII would largely be devoured by the Big Ten, ACC, SEC, and PAC-16). Notre Dame does NOT want to be left on the outside (looking in at that).
Such a situation would be stable for the long term, and lead to an 8-team BCS playoff (four champs, and four at-large (largely chosen from the "Big 4")).

So at this point, Notre Dame better NOT be too strident and cut off their options.

If the Big Ten goes to 12, I see the following happening:
12 teams becomes the standard.....
PAC also expands to 12.
Big XII re-stocks, as necessary.
Big East splits and football group expand (largely with CUSA teams) to create 12-team all-sports conferernce.
MWC re-stocks / expands to 12 (with WAC schools, maybe UTEP and / or Houston from CUSA)
CUSA re-stocks (primarily with Sun-Belt schools).

If the Big Ten goes to 16, the writing is on the wall that there will be 4 16-team super-conferences eventually, and the scrambling will begin.
Likely 5 team expansion for Big Ten:
Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame, Missouri
Big "Sixteen":
East - Rutgers*, Syracuse*, Penn State, Pitt*, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Notre Dame*
West - Michigan, MSU, Northwestern, Illinois, Missouri*, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

ACC could devour the remainder of the Big East:
the original "zipper split" was to avoid dominance by FSU and Miami in same division. I don't think that applies any more.
A north-south split could reunite tobacco road....
North - BC, UConn*, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Viirginia*, Cincy*, Louisville*
South - UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake, Clemson, Ga. Tech, FSU, Miami

SEC would go after Texas, TA&M, OU, OSU:
East: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina. Tennessee, Vandy, Kentucky
West: Mississippi, MSU, LSU, Arkansas, Texas*, TA&M*, OU*, OSU*

PAC would have numerous candidates:
I think the best one stays with "pairs"
East: Nebraska*, Kansas*, Colorado*, New Mexico*, Utah*, BYU*, Arizona, ASU
West: Washington, WSU, Oregon, OSU, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA

64 schools
BCS is now 8+12+11+Notre Dame+12+12+10 = 66
This is a "net loss" of 2 schools currently in BCS, but not in 4 super-conferences:

now BCS, not in 4 super-conferences: South Florida, Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech (-5)
not now in BCS, would be in 4 super-conferences: New Mexico, Utah, BYU (+3)

The specific choice of Big XII / MWC schools in any PAC expansion could go in multiple different ways, however....

The four super-conferences will ABSOLUTELY DOMINATE TV air-time, and money.
No top recuit in his right mind would consider going to a school NOT in the big 64.
Four super-conferences lines up better with available TV coverage: CBS, ABC/ESPN, NBC/Comcast, Fox

I think the PER SCHOOL share of such an arrangement will be significantly higher than with seven or eight 12-team conferences that still contain some viable contending schools. This will contribute to increased dominance....


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 10, 2010 3:34 pm 
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Chicago Tribune article (previously posted in another thread) by Teddy Greenstein reporting that ND would have to "court"the Big Ten if they wanted to join this time around.Link at http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/20 ... entry.html


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 3:08 pm 
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Warning....this is going to be long.


Okay, I'm a longtime lurker on this board. I will also put the disclaimer out there that I am a Notre Dame fan.

I am not the type of ND fan that goes into hysterics when the idea of joining a conference comes up. I remember the days when ND was an independent in basketball for too long. I think the football program may be nearing the same point.

I like ND as an independent.
I am not opposed to ND becoming the 12th member of the Big 10...

...however, over the years, I have grown to love having ND in the Big East and have tried to come up with a way to save the Big East...

To save the Big East as is, ND would have to bring their football program to the conference. I think they would also have to get to 12 teams. The usual suspects like Memphis, UCF, Temple and East Carolina are going to drive off a school that values tradition as much as ND, so...how to get to 12 teams and still appeal to ND's tradition.

My idea is as follows:

The Big East adds Notre Dame as well as Army, Navy and Air Force for football only. Air Force would move the rest of their sports to the WCC (along with Denver). ND, Army and Navy are convinced to give up independent football by having each team play only 1 crossover against the other division.
ND could beef up their non-conf schedule and Army and Navy could lighten theirs. Divisions would break down like this:

Notre Dame
Pitt
West Virginia
Army
Navy
Air Force

Connecticut
Rutgers
Cincinnati
Louisville
S Florida
Syracuse

The Big 10 responds by adding Missouri
The Pac 10 responds by adding Colorado and Utah
The Big 12 (now short 2 schools) adds BYU and either TCU or Colorado St
The MWC (now down to 5 schools) merges back with the WAC to form a 14 team conference.
The SEC, ACC, MAC, C-USA and Sun Belt stand pat.

What is left is all six BCS conferences and C-USA with 12 teams, the WAC with 14, the MAC with 13 (could add Delaware or UMass to get to 14) and the Sun Belt with 10 (once S Alabama moves up). Sun Belt could add any two of the following to get to a stable 12 teams: UTSA, Texas St, Georgia St.


Do I THINK that this is how it will play out? No, but I do think it would be a pretty workable end result for everybody.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 3:26 pm 
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Welcome aboard!

Army and Navy have seemed to be less interested in the Big East than one might think. The easiest move for the Big East the past X number of years would have been to bring in Army and Navy as the joint 9th team (each would play 4 BE games a year). But it hasn't happened. And since the TV package for adding Army, Navy and AF would be minimal, I don't see ND making that jump...since they'd make more money if it were just 9 teams rather than 12.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 4:03 pm 
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You may be right about the money. The one thing working in this plans favor is that Army, Navy, Air Force and Notre Dame have national followings (although three of the four are smaller followings) that might help them get a bit more TV money.

As for Army and Navy being interested....the plan would have them playing Notre Dame, each other and Air Force every year, along with Pitt, WVU and one other. This doesn't make their schedule significantly more difficult or regional, so they might go for it for the increased revenue and exposure.

As for who to go to for a TV package....someone like NBC Universal might be willing to take on the whole conference for FB, MBB and the occasional WBB. Games could be spread over NBC, Versus and USA Network. I don't think the numbers would be as much as the Big Ten can bring to the table, but they might be better than what they are getting now. And as for 12 over 9...Part of the draw for ND under this plan is playing only 6 conference games. There needs to be 12 teams for that to work.

Like I said...I don't think this is what is going to happen, but it is workable...somewhat.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 29, 2010 1:58 pm 
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Article out of Kansas City with more comments from ND AD who again says that ND is just monitoring the conference realignment landscape at this time.Link at http://www.kansascity.com/2010/03/28/18 ... g-ten.html


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 30, 2010 2:23 am 
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http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/20 ... um=twitter

Brian Kelly on ND's independenc vs. conference expansion: "At the end of the day, you love the independent status as it relates to football. Being able to play on the West Coast and the East Coast and not have to always play at those same destination stops. I think it's great for everybody. Our fan base goes from coast to coast. If we can continue to do that, that would be a preference. But I'm a realist. We're going to do what's right for the University of Notre Dame."

Commentary here (originally posted by animus): http://ncaabbs.com/showthread.php?tid=428651


Last edited by panthersc97 on Tue Mar 30, 2010 2:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 30, 2010 2:25 am 
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freaked4collegefb wrote:
Article out of Kansas City with more comments from ND AD who again says that ND is just monitoring the conference realignment landscape at this time.Link at http://www.kansascity.com/2010/03/28/18 ... g-ten.html


It's looking more and more like ND is going to join the Big 10.

Commentary about the article here: http://ncaabbs.com/showthread.php?tid=428836


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 31, 2010 7:25 pm 
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Panther,thanks for the posts.

BE MB thread discussion of ND insider speculation regarding future ND conference status at http://ncaabbs.com/showthread.php?tid=429258


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2010 9:40 am 
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Piece in today's USAToday discussing conference and NCAA Tourney expansion with more comments from ND AD who again sounds like ND wants to remain a FB Independent.Link at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/ ... erns_N.htm


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2010 10:05 am 
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freaked4collegefb wrote:
Piece in today's USAToday discussing conference and NCAA Tourney expansion with more comments from ND AD who again sounds like ND wants to remain a FB Independent.Link at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/ ... erns_N.htm



The problem with this (and every other recent statement coming out of ND on this topic) is that it is exactly the type of non-denial denial that football coaches give when they are asked about other job openings..."coach, are you a candidate for the open coaching job at school x?" might be answered with:
- I'm very happy in my current job
- I have not talked to anyone from school x
- Right now we're only worried about preparing for our next game
Coaches say everything except "I am not leaving here"...well, unless you are Nick Saban.

ND keeps making statements about having a "strong preference" to remain independent, but at no time do they say...we are not joining the Big 10.

At this point, I will be shocked if ND does not join the Big 10. I think ND going in has been settled and they are now negotiating what that looks like (who comes in with them, how are divisions split up, money, etc...)


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2010 7:20 pm 
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Another (previously posted in another thread)Dennis Dodd piece with speculation regarding ND being "forced" to join the Big Ten.Link at http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal ... -landscape


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 1:20 pm 
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panthersc97 wrote:
http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/03/notre-dame-kelly-looking-to-spring-far-ahead.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Brian Kelly on ND's independenc vs. conference expansion: "At the end of the day, you love the independent status as it relates to football. Being able to play on the West Coast and the East Coast and not have to always play at those same destination stops. I think it's great for everybody. Our fan base goes from coast to coast. If we can continue to do that, that would be a preference. But I'm a realist. We're going to do what's right for the University of Notre Dame."

Commentary here (originally posted by animus): http://ncaabbs.com/showthread.php?tid=428651


Notre Dame could accomplish the same thing in an expanded Big Ten if they were in an Eastern division. For example:

Notre Dame
Purdue
Michigan State
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Syracuse
Rutgers

An 8 game schedule would allow them room for traditional rivals, USC & Navy, + a 2nd West Coast team (Washington?) & 1 other game of their choosing. Frankly the schedule wouldn't look much different than it always does with Penn State substituting for Pitt. With Navy in the mix, they'd have 2 games in an Eastern state each year as well as one game on the West Coast each year.

One of the things that makes think that Missouri is going to be one of the teams is that if too many teams are brought in from the East, and Eastern division would leave the few original Big Ten teams in that division bereft of traditional opponents. I think that the expansion probably needs some geographic balance - unless they simply ignore geography in setting up the divisions.

Another factor in setting up divisions is the fact that the Eastern schools don't draw the way that Big Ten schools normally do. So, the question is going to be which school that draws 80 - 100K wants to be in a division with schools that draw only 40K & don't travel well?

A 3rd factor in setting up divisions is going to be balance of power. An Eastern division such as the one I proposed would be loaded with power teams. That means more losses on the schedule & a guarantee that a school from the weaker Western division will be in the championship game every year while a more deserving runner up in the Eastern division stays home. Ultimately I think they'll modify the geography to get the right balance of power & maintenance of traditional rivalries. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see 4 pods & an otherwise rotating schedule.


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