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PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2005 10:27 pm 
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DOGGY IDIOTS PLAN FOR THE BE
KILL the successful bb league
THROW ND out of its football affilation with the BE
Now you have a weakened BE conference
What are your great opportunities memphis,cfla,marshall,ecu the dead wood of cusa east.Did george bush think of this to regain his popularity in the south?


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2005 3:06 am 
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DNC,

I agree with the split. The problem that occurrs is how many to add. I don't think that Marshall and ECU add enough value to make their additions worthwhile.

I can see teh BE add one team for all sports - say Memphis (if they can get the Liberty) which would ease scheduling concerns.

This would also allow the BE to add other teams in the future in case another 'UL' emerges from the group of CUSA schools.

In addition, I would advocate a potential addition of ND. It depends on many factors such as how the conference is doing in FB, TV contracts, etc. However, I do not advocate the addtion of any other BB schools such as VU, St. Johns, or GT.

I imagine in 2007 we will see what direction the BE takes.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:27 am 
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The only sports, difference between Memphis and ECU,Marshall,CFLA is that Memphis has good bb.ND is essential to any BE success,whether you think they have a fair share or not.The importance of the Liberty bowl is greatly overated.Playing the 8th best SEC team is no big deal.With the movement toward the Toronto Bowl having 5 BE bowls maybe more than the league can handle(most leagues cannot more than 50 % of their members.)Having 9 full members is vastly overated.The BE already has ND/Army/Navy for that game.The movement to all sports would be great if their were a MD/BC/PSU but the eastern cUSA members ARE NOT WORTH THE EFFORT.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:12 pm 
PantherSC97, I concur with your last post. I am more in line with many of your major thoughts than one may think. I suppose speculating on the Notre Dame intent factor can generate some strong and diverse opinions.

As to what teams would be candidates if there was a split may have a lot to do with who is best positioned in the years 2007 plus. Personally, I was never that keen on Marshall, believe Memphis would be a good addition but acknowledge a distance and rivalry issue with them, and see ECU in a better position to offer more than many think. Is there a huge world of difference between USF and UCF for the long term? Ohio?

If there was a split, certainly a respectable #9 and maybe a #10, could be chosen. There are no great choices except Notre Dame, and we know the story there.

TS2, do you assume everyone from the south are Bush fans? Your name calling is just lovely!


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2005 2:54 pm 
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No I thought Tom delay gerrimandered the whole south so that he could have more power.Some how except for Florida I thought the south was real bushy. Yes certain cities in the south like Austin,Atlanta,New Orleans are certainly not bushy.I will minimize my level of criticism if you do likewise.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:20 pm 
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Well, REM and the B-52's both come from Athens, GA. I doubt that college town is Bush country. It was what Seattle was in the 90's in the 1980's. Also, Widespread Panic, another great group is from Athens.

Also, there are some very rural counties in eastern Kentucky, and West Virginia that voted for Bostonian, John Kerry. Louisville, Memphis and Nashville also all voted for Kerry. Little Rock and some rural counties on the Mississippi Delta in AR and MS voted for Bostonian John Kerry.


Last edited by metropolitan on Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 16, 2005 8:12 pm 
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Wonderful result from South (sorry, TS2) Bend. Another power conference victory.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:26 pm 
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Dognthings, your about as obsessed with getting East Carolina into the Big East as Tigersharktwo is with Villanova upgrading to 1A for football.

Both of you are in for a bit of let down. When reviewing some BE material this week with some guys who really have the Big East best interest at stake, you both are far off base.

Must admit, I have been off base as the Big East is not interested in any football expansion including a 9th football member.

If the Big East splits which is possible in five years, the most likely scenario will be the 8 football members only.

Forget about South Florida jumping to some bush league in the south. Unless Pac 10 causes some eastern expansion that could open up SEC and/or ACC or Big 12 slots, there is no BCS openings in the south.

We all tend to think the BE is not satisfied and everyone is wanting to go elsewhere is simply not based on facts.

The BE likes its current 8 football team alignment as is positioned to move on its own with solid all sports if that is necessary. It will be based on efficiency of the 16 team basketball league.

The BE football schools have BCS membership and don't think they will lose there membership. The BE football schools have great basketball that could stand alone and don't need any other schools period.

As we have stated many times and Gunnerfan is probably more accurate, it all comes down to money.

There is just no benefits to expanding to 9 or 10. The idea is if expanding were to occur, 12 would be the best solution if revenue would be benefited from such as move or BCS requirement of 12 members. Both scenarios appear very unlikely.


So what does this mean to the schools that actually make the decisions. For now, nothing. The football schools have no desire to expand and so there is no need to rush to split. Again it will come down to performance as MT has stated many times. Perform well and the 16 member conference will be around for a very long time.

One more important point, the Big 10 is not interested in expanding to 12.

In one basic point, there is no BCS openings including the Big East.






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PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:22 am 
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Great analysis lash get rid of ND and the bb teams.Kill both BE football and bb.Thank the aliens for helping you.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:19 am 
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Lash flipflopped again imagine that.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:36 am 
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Okay here are the scenarios for the BE Expansion.

Best For the BE
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
South Florida
Syracuse
West Virginia
*Notre Dame
*Memphis/Temple
*Army (FB Only)
*Navy (FB Only)

Most Likely
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
South Florida
Syracuse
West Virginia
*Memphs
*UCF/Temple
*Army (FB Only)
*Navy (FB Only)

Best For "Regional" All Sports
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
South Florida
Syracuse
West Virginia
*Memphis
*ECU
*UCF
*Marshall

Best for FB purposes
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
South Florida
Syracuse
West Virginia
*Memphis
*ECU
*Southern Miss
*UAB



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:54 am 
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Time out.

Lash is entitled to suggest an expansion idea without being tied to it as "his final position" on the matter. There's a difference between thinking out of the box and advocating it.

If he "flip-flops" on the matter of what the BE SHOULD do, I don't blame him. I wouldn't want Mike Tranghese's job, to be honest.

Why do I say that? I think the only conference that could possibly GROW their basketball TV contract is the ACC, and I'm not sure they have lately. The NCAA has known and acknowledged problems with basketball viewership and attendance across the board. I know the Big East has successful basketball, but what I'm NOT seeing is a strong demand for a huge basketball TV contract for a 16-team conference. I also respect TS2's comments about nearly all realistic expansion options really not adding value to a football contract, much less the basketball contract. While there are a lot of TV sets back east, those sets are generally tuned to other things, and the current Big East has a large inventory of private schools... while a few private schools have been elevated in the modern age, on average they do not create broad TV interest levels (or are even able to consistently fill the major arenas they rent, BTW). I think TS2 knows and fears what schools are hurt by a split... but I don't see any realistic alternative to a split at this point.

It has to vex some people further that Notre Dame's enhancing BE access to bowls has diminished over the previous arrangement, and their presence has done no help for the Big East football TV contract. They have to make a more public statement to improve that, much less maintain their current on-field momentum for at least three years. Three games a year doesn't do the trick IMO.


Last edited by pounder on Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:55 am 
Lash, I spoke in the context of expansion possibilities and spoke of the merits, pro and con, that East Carolina offered. The idea is not that far-fetched given their location and former association with recent additions to the BE conference.

Please leave me out of your weekly position changes. You project onto others; and frankly, I would rather be called an idiot, backwards, Bush voter (none of which truly apply--especially the last one) by Tigershark2, than to have my thoughts and comments twisted.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:38 pm 
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Thanks Pounder as you obviously understand where I am coming from.

First point that needs to be made very clear and there are resources to back this up including MT. The Big East is not interested in expansion at this point.

Being an analyst by nature will require you to review and look at all angles before a final product is produced. Since there is not time line for a product (BE is not looking to expanding at this time) a true analyst will look at many scenarios and may come back to square one in the end.

Have to clarify something for Tigersharktwo as his BE contacts don't seem to have a pulse on the new BE. If you actually read my post, Tigersharktwo, it clearly is favoring the 16 basketball league. Where do you get killing the basketball league from that post. The points are coming from BE officials themselves. What would kill the 16 team basketball conference is performance. Performance translates into revenue which we will get back to latter in this post. Performance for basketball is measured one way by NCAA tournament. This impacts future TV schedules. Take WVU which went to the elite 8 and only overtime loss to new BE member Louisville prevented the school from final four has went from one national TV appearance to 11 and thats just in the pre season with four games planned for CBS. If Marquette, Depaul, Georgetown, Villanova continue to carry their wait and build NCAA bids, the football schools will benefit as well from the 16 team alignment. If the non football schools continue the past downward trend with the exception of Villanova, your going to soon have a very wide division in who makes the money verses who gets to share.

It all comes down to revenue. If the 16 schools make more money in basketball than 8 football schools could for basketball, why would you split if you don't need any football schools.

This leads back to revenue. BE has BCS membership and very good bowl deals far better than any non BCS conference. If the BE football schools average 3 million payout for BE champion, and 2 million for first place and 1 million for second place team, adding any new school other than Notre Dame will just reduce this revenue more. Why would you want to expand unless Penn State or Notre Dame were interested and could bring much revenue in the form of TV contracts.

If the 16 team basketball league does not live up to expectations (revenue wise), you will see the football schools lean toward a split. This is just common sense, however, BE is confirming this as well including MT.

Take Memphis for example as a 9th football members in all sports. The school would bring the Liberty bowl. How much better revenue is the Liberty over the Motor City or Toronto Bowl or eventually the Big Apple Bowl. Not much is being made on bowl deals. Take Memphis basketball, would the school bring that much more interest that the 8 football schools could not generate without an additional school. 8 Million would be the projected value and 9 million would be needed with a 9th football school. Would Memphis be able to bring 1 million interest to the BE when it can't do the same for Conf USA?

I try to read the pulse of where the conference thinking is now and may go in the future. Using as much facts as possible to determine any future direction.

If this makes me flip flop so be it. If man did not flip flop, we may never had a man to eventually walk on the moon or better yet America would never have been discovered. Some will not understand this comment and I will not try to bring everyone up to my level of thinking.

Bottom line at this point in new BE history. There is no benefit for the BE football schools to allow Villanova to move up and play football and share in football revenue that has been lowered quit a bit from Miami defection. The BE football schools already have the necessary 8 football schools and do not need any votes as no new football members are desired.

If you consider flip flop or I like to think looking at your options as they are today and not what is yesterday and could change tomorrow, the BE would split a keep only 8 football schools if the 16 basketball league does not pull its weight (financially).

Loss of Notre Dame schedules is being made up right now with many BE teams scheduling several Big 10, SEC, and of course always lots of ACC OOC games.

If the BE builds back football to close to old days with the help of BCS, will the BE need Notre Dame in the future to gain Gator Bowl. If each football school were losing a potential of 500,000 on basketball revenue that could be made up with 8 members split, how important would the Gator's 1.5 million be when a minor bowl could be just as useful just not as prestige.

Some BE folks surprise me when they stated that 12 would be the only way to generate money to warrant the extra schools sharing in the revenue. Maybe they have been paying attention to Gunnerfan and his analysis of potential revenue options.

Since most schools not in BCS conference east of the Mississippi river would not bring much TV interest, my idea of cherry picking the MWC for new markets was analyzed to see if 12 teams would be economical.

According to BE folks who have a pulse on what is going on in the conference, it will be the following three scenarios in the future.

Remain with all 16 members as revenue is better than 8 and Notre Dame continues to provide benefits with Bowls and partial football schedules.

Split into 8 all sports conference with existing 8 BE members.

Or find a method to interest the networks to pay for the justification of expanding to 12 members including a football championship.

I only see two possibilities in this scenario. Notre Dame with Army/Navy/ and one other football school. Not very likely since Notre Dame likes independence.

Find four football schools that could bring estimated 4 million in basketball revenue and 8 to 10 million in football revenue.

At this points the odds are very low and my idea of MWC schools could possibly come close.

Otherwise, my current flip flop view if you want to call it that is if a split occurs in five years due to reduced basketball revenue, you will see an 8 sports all sports conference to maximize revenue potential.







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PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:58 pm 
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Scenario 1 NO SPLIT ND/Army/Navy plus the BE football 8.BB 16 schools.

Scenario 2 Split ND/Army/Navy plus the BE football 8.BB 8BE football schools plus ND and the strongest bb schools with best markets(likely Villanova and Georgetown and St Johns)

Future likely events(Scenario 1 or 2) Army/Navy in some bowl sharing arrangements,better tv contracts ,a new bowl game in the meadowlands in a new doomed Meadowland's stadium with 90k seating


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