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PostPosted: Wed Feb 08, 2006 11:15 pm 
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Only about 60% of the teams in a league typically have the record to make a bowl game whether bcs or non bcs.In the case of the BE 8 teams that would be between 4-5 bowl eligible teams.With the addition of ND to two of these bowls(non bcs) and Army and Navy to another that would give the BE 5 bowls games 1 BCS and 1 non bcs.When a new bowl (non bcs) in Indianopolis or Toronto by April 2006 that number will be reached.However,if a 9th football team is added the money from the bcs and tv will be significantly lower.This can not be made up by a 9th team but only lessened .The addition of a liberty bowl type will only make up the losses of the bcs &tv monies lost to a 9th team added.The only way this could be made is by changing type of non bcs bowl to those 3.5 million each.However,the addition of a cfla or memphis not buying a 3.5 million bowl for the BE.On the other hand the affilates Army and Navy do not draw bcs or tv money away from the BE 8 football schools but likely add tv money from deals between the bE football schools with their tv packages.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 7:28 am 
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I am only going to make this remark concerning a split. It is from the BE BBS board (link below). This is for those who did not see those posts.

Again, if the BE 1A FB schools make most of the BB money, why stay together?

The BE revenue for FB is about $31 million or $22 million for BCS and bowl money + $8 million for TV. However, this number will probably not be static if a new member is brought aboard.

Addition of one more team means at least one more bowl, plus more TV monies. One more bowl at minimum brings in 1.5 million and the additional TV revenue only has to be a modest 500K to get 33 million total pot. Will probably mean more than that since the new EAC league will be able to leverage the football contract with the basketball contract - something that is currently not able to do. But even sticking with the modest increase -

31 million/divided by 8 = 3.87
33 million/divided by 9 = 3.66

As already mentioned, your 400K loss for each team is all wet = it's more like 200-250K.

Now let's look at the bb units. Each unit is presently worth 164,000. They go up between 7 and 7.5 each year, so by the time of the split each unit will be worth about 220,000.

By the time of the split the BE will have earned approximately a total of 110 units, of which 80% of those will belong to the football schools - or approximately 88 units.

Now lets take 110 * $220,000/16 = 1,512,500

Now lets take 88 * $220,000/9 = 2,151,000

or a gain of over 600K per school.

And that's just the NCAA credits, not even mentioning the TV contracts.


http://www.ncaabbs.com/forums/bigeast/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=11735&highlight=&sid=4ce434b16397d069a8941511de237288
(Page #1 - Post by SO#1)

http://www.ncaabbs.com/forums/bigeast/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=11773&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=50
(Page #2 - Posts by Omnicarrier)


LASH:
As to UCF versus Memphis - it is a hard decision. A lot depends on whether the BE gets the Liberty Bowl. UCF would cut down on travel by having a parter (USF) for olympic sports. UCF has new facilites for FB and BB. However, they only got 22k for FB (alhtough a lot showed up for the championship game). In addition, would the BE really want to 'dilute' the advantage USF has now? Memphis would bring a name program in BB and long term money for NCAA BB credits, 35k in FB and perhaps the Liberty.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 9:33 am 
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Lash:

Agree with you that Army and Navy are not needed for the Toronto Bowl. Army has a contract with ESPN for a bowl bid if they can ever get it back on track and have a winning season. Navy grabs an at large bid usually on the west coast or down south if they have a winning season. If they both have winning seasons and the BE cannot fill this bowl if it gets off the ground in April then there will be an at large bid for them to try and fill. The BE does not have alliances with Army, Navy and ND. They do have a conference member who is independent for for FB and a bowl partner (ND). They have promised at least 3 games a year after 2009. L'ville has announced that they will play them in 2009 or 2010 IF THE IRISH ARE AVAILABLE. We will wait and see. ND has been playing the future scheduling card for years. Sometimes they do deliver but delivery is contingent on what they can get out of the situation. Army and Navy want to remain independent and schedule favorably with mid majors, MAC, 1AA opponents, and a couple of OCC games with the BE. A national schedule helps their limited recruitment capabilities. Extremely high academic restrictions and the 4 year military commitments limit their recruiting potential.

Villanova boards squawking on 1A FB again to save BB program in the split. No tangible evidence to back claims. Administration not moving on anything.

Barring resounding results with 2007-2008 TV contracts, the BE is set up for the split.

Cinn., Rutgers, L'ville, Cuse, Conn., Pitt, W. V., and USF.
I think ND comes along with 3 game deal and bowl deal until they move to the B-10. Will be required to share non BCS bowl money but will keep TV deal. Memphis has the most to offer with BB, FB, and possible Liberty Bowl so they are the first NBE acquisition. If UCF wants to play the traveling partner gig for USF then they better start the rivalry ASAP and start building on it.

Other future potential candidates, if a 12 FB conference becomes reality after ND leaves include ECU, UMass (regain Boston/ Mass market), and Temple if Villanova stays 1AA to keep the Philly BB market (Penn St and the Eagles own FB). Must start working on short falls now.

Bowls - BCS, Sun/Gator, Mieneke, and Toronto if it is accepted in April. Motor City back-up. Should start Apple Bowl ASAP even if it is an outdoor bowl in the cold and build on it. They have to fight for space around NYE in NYC and between the Jets and Giants finishing their seasons at their new stadium. Tie it on to NYE - NYC gig.
They play FB in Boise on blue turf in the snow in the winter. If a dome or roof were added to the new Meadowland stadium this could eventually develop into a premier bowl.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:00 pm 
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PantherSC97/scknights, you both have convinced me for today that a split will take place due to finance. This has a value added point which I agree.

Now if you go to logistics, there is more benefit to the split.

If Syracuse has to play four games in the BE tournament and the first game as a play in game, things have to change right? If Syracuse does not get to the quarterfinals forget the NCAA.

If Notre Dame does not make the BE basketball tournament, things have to change right? If Notre Dame does not get to the Big East tournament, forget post season.

Louisville and Cincinnati both fighting for a chance to stay out of the BE cellar of 12 teams. Forget either making the NCAA with out at least one tournament win.

The rumor of the locked up five year plan for split is probably more fact than fiction.

The only thing that could keep the 16 members together is a tremendous basketball TV contract increase. I just don't think you can demand enough to make it profitable for 16 members.

Your can not forget that the Big East was born for TV and MT is a genius with making TV contacts.

It will be up to MT to keep the group together if there is a chance.




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PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:33 pm 
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Quote:

Again, if the BE 1A FB schools make most of the BB money, why stay together?


There are several problems with this statement & with the assumptions expressed in the links:

1. Notre Dame was eliminated from the calculations because the poster is under some kind of delusion that Notre Dame will eventually sign on with the football schools. So, the calculations of the basketball credits & NCAA revenue is based on erroneous data. Instead of the 80 - 20 split in revenue, the split with Notre Dame's 7 basketball credits earned during the 5-year period in question is 70 - 30 in favor of the football schools.

2. The poster who originated the thread assumed that the football schools will have earned 80% of the basketball credits by the time of the split because that's what they have done over the past 5 years. That's like setting your direction by looking in the rear view mirror. Things are changing on the basketball front for anyone who is looking forward.

3. The poster also made the claim that the Big East would get 9 - 10 NCAA bids this year & that only 3 of them would go to the basketball schools. I beg to differ. Joe Lunardi of ESPN's Bracketology column does the most comprehensive study of this every year. He is predicting 8 NCAA bids for the Big East, split equally (4 + 4) between the basketball & football schools.

Since this is a basketball thread, I will focus on that:

The problem with the idea that the power in Big East basketball is with the football schools is twofold:

1. It looks only at the question of "What have you done for me lately?"

2. It ignores the depth of strength in each group - or lack thereof.

In regard to #1, success tends to run in cycles & is often associated with a great coach who can build or maintain a program. Cincinnati is a classic example of this. From 1992 - 05, Bobby Huggins took the Bearcats to the NCAA tournament every year - 14 times in 14 years! However, in the previous 14 years, Cincinnati took a doughnut - zero appearnaces in 14 years! Huggins is gone, the program is in disarray. Will the real Cincinnati basketball please stand up?

Likewise, Pitt has gone to the NCAA tournament for 4 straight years. However, you have to go back almost a decade before that to find the last time that they made it to the tournament. Ben Howland built this program, but he's now coaching at UCLA. Jamie Dixon appears to be a fine young coach, but he is still trying to establish this program as his own.

Syracuse & Louisville have been perennial NCAA tournament teams for decades & both have estblished coaches. UConn has joined their ranks in the past 15 years & also has a great coach. However, UConn is a lot like Cincinnati - great since Calhoun built them, but back in the '80s, not a single NCAA appearnace.

West Virginia had a great run in the tournament last year, but that was only the second time in the past dozen years that they've been to the tournament. Hardly a perennial power.

Neither Rutgers nor South Florida brings anything in the way of an established basketball program. Neither has been to the tournament since the early '90s & neither has much of a history - USF: only 2 appearances in school history & Rutgers 6.

The bottom line is that the football schools are a top heavy group in terms of basketball success. So, while they have more basketball credits in the past 5 years than the basketball schools, in the previous 5 years, 4 of the 8 football schools total only 1 credit among them (West Virginia, Pitt, Rutgers, & South Florida).

In contrast, the basketball schools have all made multiple tournament appearances over the past decade & all have traditions that go back for decades, so that they are not dependent on a single coach for their reputations & crowd appeal. There is no South Florida or Rutgers in this group.

Looking forward, the basketball schools have reason to be optimistic with resurgent programs at Villanova, St. John's, Georgetown, & Marquette - all in the hands of talented young coaches with bright futures & great traditions to build on. Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Providence, & DePaul have all been to the tournament in recent years & their histories suggest that they will be back among the elite when their turns cycle through again. Seton Hall in fact looks like a tournament team this year.

In contrast, the most successful programs in the football group are in the hands of coaches who are long in the tooth. No one knows how long it will be before Calhoun & Boeheim are following Huggins out the door. Louisville is established. Pitt & west Virginia will probably continue what they have started, but if any of this group stumbles, there's no indication that the schools at the bottom will rise up to take their place.

So, "the football schools" make most of the basketball money? Not as a group. A handful of them have definitely seen their hay day in recent years. But for anyone who's looking forward instead of in the rear view mirror, the basketball schools are surging forward & the football schools have no guarantees. Cincinnati has been the first to stumble. Who will be next?


Last edited by friarfan on Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 4:57 pm 
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Friarfan, way to go you have put me back on the fence.

I thinks its really cool that four basketball and four football schools make the NCAA tournament.

Should make interesting conversations on which foursome do the best.

Nice thing all win if any win.

Your point is very valid on long term stablity of having multiple teams that can rise to the top. What would the ACC be this year without BC? Duke and NC State?





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PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 7:24 pm 
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Lash, the history of college basketball is a history of upsets. In college football, an upset is when #2 beats #1 for the NC. In basketball it's when #32 beats #1 (Villanova over Georgetown, NC State over Houston, CCNY over Bradley, whatever). College football is the sport of the usual suspects because of the history of championships being determined by polls.

So, given all of this, I find it hard to agree with those who say that the football schools have a stranglehold on the world of college hoops Just because we've had a decade or so of BCS schools winning bb championships. In hoopsworld, just when things seem to be one way, they turn 90 or 180 & start going in a different direction.

The basketball schools in the BE have an advantage that no one talks about. They don't have to compete in football! For whatever reason, it seems to be impossible to excel in both sports. What have there been - maybe 4 or 5 schools that have one championships in both sports in the past 50 years? I can think of Syracuse, Michigan, & Ohio State. Arkansas? Michigan State? Even when BCS schools excel in basketball, they are typically schools that hve terrible football programs - North Carolina, Connecticut, Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky, Indiana, Kansas, etc. The best players seem to want to go to the schools where they can be BMOC & the university community gets behind these teams in a way that a football campus never does.

With all of the great players in NYC, is St John's not going to come back & be great again? Of course they will, now that they have Norm Roberts. Same for Georgetown & JT III. Look at Villanova; it took Jay Wright a few years, but they're #4 in the country. Marquette with Tom Crean? Are you kidding me? Louis Orr is getting it done at the Hall. Pc will be there every few years with 4-year players. DePaul is to Chicago what St. John's is to New York. They just need the right coach.

The pressure is on the football schools right now to excel in football. Will South Florida & Rutgers be able to build big time programs in both sports simultaneously? Will Cincinnati take basketball for granted until it's too late? will the same thing happen at Syracuse & UConn after Boeheim & Calhoun retire? Can Petrino & Pitino coeist at Louisville? Will the Beilein miracle continue at WVU?

I know it looks like the fb schools are king right now in the BE, but I believe that the pendulum will swing back - & soon. The problem for the fb schools is that if they dominate in bb & want to split, they leave a lot of money on the table in the form of NCAA credits. They have no leverage to negotiate to get any of this. If the bb schools are on the rise & dominating, they leave a lot of good competition behind in some of the best venues in the country for college hoops - New York, Philly, DC, Chicago.

I've been thinking lately how prople have declared a 16-team conference unwieldy & unworkable. Heck, I've said it. But then it occurred to me that if the BE schools don't all play each other in bb, what's the big deal? The BE is jsut the opposite of the other conferences where everyone plays each other in bb, but no one plays each other in fb. In the BE, everyone plays each other in fb but not in bb. Twelve is clearly an unworkable number in college fb as you've pointed out in the past. Yet, they do it anyway because there are other things to be gained. with its unique history, the Be seems to be making it work the other way around. Only the Pac Ten seems to be close getting it right in both sports.

Cheers . . .


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 7:29 pm 
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Quote:
Lash, the history of college basketball is a history of upsets. In college football, an upset is when #2 beats #1 for the NC. In basketball it's when #32 beats #1 (Villanova over Georgetown, NC State over Houston, CCNY over Bradley, whatever). College football is the sport of the usual suspects because of the history of championships being determined by polls.

So, given all of this, I find it hard to agree with those who say that the football schools have a stranglehold on the world of college hoops Just because we've had a decade or so of BCS schools winning bb championships. In hoopsworld, just when things seem to be one way, they turn 90 or 180 & start going in a different direction.

The basketball schools in the BE have an advantage that no one talks about. They don't have to compete in football! For whatever reason, it seems to be impossible to excel in both sports. What have there been - maybe 4 or 5 schools that have one championships in both sports in the past 50 years? I can think of Syracuse, Michigan, & Ohio State. Arkansas? Michigan State? Even when BCS schools excel in basketball, they are typically schools that have terrible football programs - North Carolina, Connecticut, Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky, Indiana, Kansas, etc. The best players seem to want to go to the schools where they can be BMOC & the university community gets behind these teams in a way that a football campus never does.

With all of the great players in NYC, is St John's not going to come back & be great again? Of course they will, now that they have Norm Roberts. Same for Georgetown & JT III. Look at Villanova; it took Jay Wright a few years, but they're #4 in the country. Marquette with Tom Crean? Are you kidding me? Louis Orr is getting it done at the Hall. Pc will be there every few years with 4-year players. DePaul is to Chicago what St. John's is to New York. They just need the right coach.

The pressure is on the football schools right now to excel in football. Will South Florida & Rutgers be able to build big time programs in both sports simultaneously? Will Cincinnati take basketball for granted until it's too late? will the same thing happen at Syracuse & UConn after Boeheim & Calhoun retire? Can Petrino & Pitino coeist at Louisville? Will the Beilein miracle continue at WVU?

I know it looks like the fb schools are king right now in the BE, but I believe that the pendulum will swing back - & soon. The problem for the fb schools is that if they dominate in bb & want to split, they leave a lot of money on the table in the form of NCAA credits. They have no leverage to negotiate to get any of these dollars. If the bb schools are on the rise & dominating, they leave a lot of good competition behind in some of the best venues in the country for college hoops - New York, Philly, DC, Chicago.

I've been thinking lately how prople have declared a 16-team conference unwieldy & unworkable. Heck, I've said it. But then it occurred to me that if the BE schools don't all play each other in bb, what's the big deal? The BE is jsut the opposite of the other conferences where everyone plays each other in bb, but no one plays each other in fb. In the BE, everyone plays each other in fb but not in bb. Twelve is clearly an unworkable number in college fb as you've pointed out in the past. Yet, they do it anyway because there are other things to be gained. With its unique history, the Be seems to be making it work the other way around. Only the Pac Ten seems to be close getting it right in both sports.

Cheers . . .


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2006 3:20 pm 
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Some thoughts on this years basketball performance!

With Penn State's unbelievable end of Illinois home win streak, what if the old Eastern 8 were still alive today?

The old Eastern 8 would have four potential top ten teams in Villanova, WV, Pitt, and George Washington.

Was the old Conf USA that mid major or is the new Big East really that good. This weekend had all formal Conf USA teams losing to old Big East teams. Each of the formal Conf USA schools are middle to bottom dwellers in the new configured BE conference.

Why did many assume U of Miami would be power in the ACC when the school did not make much waves in the last few years of the old Big East. Its not like Miami moved from the Atlantic 10 to the ACC?

Most of the new conference moves in realignment last year did not really benefit the schools success rates in basketball.

BC is middle of the pact at best in the ACC. Louisville and Depaul are struggling to make the BE basketball tournament. South Florida will not make the BE tournament and that was determined early in the season.

Miami and Va Tech are about the same place in the ACC as usual spots in the old Big East.

Most of the new members of Conf USA are light years behind Memphis which apparently Conf USA was about the same compared to the old Big East.

All of these schools better hope football was worth the effort and better yet, prove in the future that football was worth it. For this season, basketball was clearly not worth it for the new realigned members.









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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2006 4:09 pm 
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Taking one or two years into does not prove the worth of the effort.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2006 5:09 pm 
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The "basketball OR football" problem has been an issue for a long time. How many schools manage to do both well at the same time? Michigan, maybe?

Of course, in the extremely short term outlook (as Colin Cowherd pointed out this morning), Tennessee beat Kentucky and Ohio State beat Indiana... and Texas appears to be head and shoulders above Kansas. Cowherd's comments about "the football school fans don't even care" might merit some critical analysis, but it does bring a chuckle or two.

Here's the thing IMO... what I've just described is where we've BEEN. Is that the way we're GOING?

I've long suspected that an odd goal of the BCS, by essentially taking over D-1 management, is to capture the basketball money. It wasn't many years ago that only one at-large NCAA tournament bid was given to a non-BCS school, and there's something of a trend of "football schools" starting to gain in stature.

In that regard, I wouldn't be surprised if there were "external" pressures on the Big East to split... well, more than just from C-USA schools.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2006 7:33 pm 
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Ponder, excellent point. If basketball money did not have to fund the entire bureaucracy of the NCAA, there would be much value to basketball schools verses football schools in BCS conferences.

USA Today published a series of articles last year on revenue of BCS schools that played both football and basketball verses schools that did not play football. The revenue favored the football schools by far.

More revenue promotes better overall facilities, better paid coaches, etc.

If the 6 BCS conferences wanted to leave the NCAA, there would be much value. Apparently there is as much waste in the NCAA as the federal government.

If CBS cut the NCAA payouts in half, there would much greater revenue sharing than current football and basketball combined by the the BCS conferences.

Makes you wonder why the BCS conferences have not jumped ship already.



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2006 12:25 pm 
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Friarfan, I been thinking more lately about you comparison of BE basketball verses BE football schools for the future and which group look like they have a better future.

I am going to disagree with you especially after last night seeing all the empty seats at Seton Hall on ESPN for a game against league leading WVU at the time.

St Johns, Georgetown, Seton Hall, are all have attendance declines in basketball from the original hey days of the old Big East. Villanova with a great season is in the middle of the pack in attendance and clearly behind new comers Louisville and Cincinnati.

There will be many benefits to the football schools breaking away and the thing to keep the 16 members together is going to have to come from the basketball side of the house.

For now, attendance at many of the old BE basketball only schools are looking very mid major and the one thing the basketball schools can not afford is not appearing to have support. The one big argument for keeping the eastern footprint is big eastern markets, otherwise, Memphis is looking better every day.



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2006 12:49 pm 
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Quote:

I know it looks like the fb schools are king right now in the BE, but I believe that the pendulum will swing back - & soon. The problem for the fb schools is that if they dominate in bb & want to split, they leave a lot of money on the table in the form of NCAA credits. They have no leverage to negotiate to get any of this. If the bb schools are on the rise & dominating, they leave a lot of good competition behind in some of the best venues in the country for college hoops - New York, Philly, DC, Chicago.


Friar,

Certainly, the BE FB schools have had a good run lately and who knows what will happen in the future. It is certainly up to the FB presidents to figure out what that want to do for the future. IF the trend continues that the FB schools continue to get most of the TV appearences and credits (and we disagree on whether that will continue be the case) then it would 'probably' be in the best interests of the FB and BB schools to split.

Certainly, the BABE will be giving up a lot in terms of prestige by losing MSG and the BE BB tourney. But they might make some of the clout depending on where they hold a new tourney.

Also, as you your comment about the FB schools leaving credits - no one knows what exactly that entails. When the ACC/BE mess was going down, the FB and BB schools agreed to a document that talks about the split. You can imagine one of the criteria would be the BB credits. They might have agreed that the FB schools keep their credits and the BB schools keep theirs (although, I don't know how that would work with the NCAA).

For example, almost all the current credits would be off the books by 2010 (I think it's a six year average) so basically, only those credits earned between now and 2010 would need to be adressed.




Last edited by panthersc97 on Wed Feb 15, 2006 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2006 11:55 am 
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Rumor mill Yahoo Sports - College BB - has Bob Huggins at USF and back in the BE next year. Boosters are pushing for him. Also another rumor in the article has him resurfacing at Temple if Chaney steps down after this year. Split BE Golden FB - Huggins BB for Temple, maybe the 9th all sports team that BABE needs. Of course this is on a wait and see basis and both coaches would have to put on winning performances. I find the rumor very interesting though.

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