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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 10:22 am 
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What if the hybrid between football strength and basketball strength actually works for the Big East (no inevitable split)? I think it would smart for the other conferences to look at this option, and where better to start than the ACC! If it turns out these hybrid conferences work I could easily see the ACC adding 4 non-football schools, possibly Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, and Providence. This would allow the ACC to have a geographic footprint along the entire Atlantic coast and have two clusters of 8 northern schools and 8 southern schools.

The Big East could then add 4 football members, or 2 FB and 2 non-football, or 1 FB and 3 non-FB. Personally I could see them taking Temple and Central Florida, staying at 10 for FB, then adding George Washington and another non-football. I know future Big East/ACC scenarios have been most likely over analyzed already, and I think this one is a little far fetched (I actually think the BE will split), but I think the possibility of a 16-team ACC and Big East could potentially be interesting. Any thoughts?


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:18 am 
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The ACC doesn't need BB-only schools because they already are the best BB conference in their region that gets the most support (UNC and Duke). They don't need any help. FB is where the money is at even though the ACC gets most of their TV money from BB (IIRC?). The ACC doesn't make special deals and there would be severe resistance to this - Look how many problems there was when they went to 12 in BB - how do you think it would be with 16!

However, you did hit on an interesting idea. Is there a combination out there that could maximize FB revenue and BB revenue for the BE? I'll give you a hint - think bigger than just Temple and UCF.....



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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:15 pm 
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Why wouldn't the ACC make special deals if it A) works for the BE (the underlying assumption of this thread) and B) makes more money for them? It would make them the dominant East Coast basketball conference, and I don't see them adding anymore football schools.


Last edited by dafoeberezin3494 on Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 5:26 am 
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Your basic assumption is that this WOULD make more money for the ACC and I just don't see how.

The ACC already gets good publicity in New England so adding Providence wouldn't bring in the bang for the buck because Providence is a small market. The ACC already gets good publicity in DC with Maryland and the rest of the ACC.

St. Johns would add the NYC market but the BE could also claim the NYC market because of the proximity of SU, UConn, RU, and Seton Hall. It wouldn't be solely the ACCs. Besides, the ACC and Duke already get good publicity there (not to teh extent of the BE of course but still ok). Just look at how many times Duke goes to MSG?

I could see Villanova because of Philly. I think the ACC could 'theoretically' add two teams but not all 4.

Right now, the BE with those 4 teams and also MORE and LARGER markets gets LESS money than the ACC for basketball ($2 million per school vs. $2.75 million for the ACC). So, in order for ACC BB expansion to be worthwhile, more money has to be gained by the ACC - I would put it at $12 million for the 4 schools or an average of $3 million per school.

That $12 million from the 4 schools would be ~ 35-40% of the BE's BB contract. Do you believe that Villanova, St. Johns, Providence, and Georgetown are worth ~ 40% of the BE's BB contract? Do you also believe that adding these 4 teams would add that much value to the ACC contract - that it would increase it from ~ $33 million to close to more than $45 which is what would be needed for expansion to work?

Also, why do you say the ACC won't add anymore 'FB schools' - or should I say expand to 14 for ALL sports? What was the goal the first time around for ACC expansion? Were they going after a particular market/markets?


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 1:08 pm 
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I was looking at revenue from beyond the TV contracts. From

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Championship

in the revenue section, it says that conferences get 1/2 the revenue based on performance in the past 6 NCAA tournaments. Looking at the reference used there:

http://www1.ncaa.org/finance/bkb_dist.html

It shows the Big East getting $16.8 mil and the ACC getting $15.3 mil. And these years are from 2002-2007, which only include part of the existence of the 16-team Big East, the first year of which I believe they got 8 teams in the tournament. If the Big East can sustain some of that long term success their revenues will likely go up, lets say to $2 million above the ACC. I think the ACC would like to increase their annual revenue by $2 million.

Also, I put up those 4 schools just as an example. If there is a better combination that might work, to bring the ACC contract up by $10 million-$12 million, tell me. But just because teams are in a shared market doesn't stop conferences from going after them. If the Big East went after DePaul and Marquette (shared with Big Ten teams), why wouldn't the ACC go after some of the Big East markets? Perhaps the ACC could go for DePaul and Marquette?

Also, I said no more ALL sports schools because it would further dilute the BCS revenue in FB if more schools were in. I'm not sure if the ACC would have to split BCS revenue with their non-FB playing members (does the Big East do so with theirs?).


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 1:57 pm 
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Quote:
I was looking at revenue from beyond the TV contracts. From

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Championship

in the revenue section, it says that conferences get 1/2 the revenue based on performance in the past 6 NCAA tournaments. Looking at the reference used there:

http://www1.ncaa.org/finance/bkb_dist.html

It shows the Big East getting $16.8 mil and the ACC getting $15.3 mil. And these years are from 2002-2007, which only include part of the existence of the 16-team Big East, the first year of which I believe they got 8 teams in the tournament. If the Big East can sustain some of that long term success their revenues will likely go up, lets say to $2 million above the ACC. I think the ACC would like to increase their annual revenue by $2 million.

Also, I put up those 4 schools just as an example. If there is a better combination that might work, to bring the ACC contract up by $10 million-$12 million, tell me. But just because teams are in a shared market doesn't stop conferences from going after them. If the Big East went after DePaul and Marquette (shared with Big Ten teams), why wouldn't the ACC go after some of the Big East markets? Perhaps the ACC could go for DePaul and Marquette?


There's more to the story with the BE taking Marquette and Depaul. The took them to essentially balance out the BE with 8 FB and BB schools. They are also a link to ND and they also have some BB history and they get good attendance.

The BB credits are a good way for the BB schools to earn money as you note. I was only looking at it from the perspective of TV money simply because as the BE is showing with 16 schools so far, the NCAA doesn't look kindly to the possibility of giving the BE 8 bids. In addition, now that you have 4 more schools, your NCAA conference credit per school for the conference must increase to account for these 4 new schools.

So, if the ACC was averaging 16 units for a 12 team conference (I don't remember of hand how many units they average), they MUST now average 21.33 credits per year because of the two new teams or an increase of 5.3 credits so you are essentially going to have to AVERAGE a sweet 16 and round of 32 increase in your BB teams per year.


Quote:

Also, I said no more ALL sports schools because it would further dilute the BCS revenue in FB if more schools were in. I'm not sure if the ACC would have to split BCS revenue with their non-FB playing members (does the Big East do so with theirs?).

The ACC would not split the FB revenue with the BB-only schools. Same as the BE.

It doens't 'necessarily' dilute the pool of money. There are ways of getting around the revenue limitations by expanding from 12 to 14 - especially in the North East. Think about it...... I'll give you a hint.....Look no further than what the Big Conference to the West of the BE that can't count correctly is doing ;)


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 3:50 pm 
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dafoeberezin3494, thanks for starting this thread. I have not posted for a while and was thinking of posting a new thread on this subject matter.

First we all just assume including myself the hybrid is working. Why? because the Big East officials are saying it is working and no split is on the horizon.

I tend to want to believe it until you start to look the next domino falls (Big Ten) and the issues with 16 teams start to surface.

First up the Big Ten just agreed to break tradition and play games after Thanksgiving. This was the one area I thought would keep the Big Ten from expanding to 12 and allowing a December championship game. The first domino of this series just fell.

The Big East is proof you do not want a huge rival game played on championship week. Pitt's big win over WVU was very good for Pitt and very bad for the Big East. If the game were played during the normal regular season and WVU had a chance to play a division winner a week latter, no one would have blinked an eye at a rival winning against huge odds. It happens all the time. The Big Ten will not want Michigan and Ohio State playing on the championship Saturday in December unless its a rematch of the regular season ending rival game.

The next domino to fall is Big Ten expanding and taking either Rutgers or Syracuse. At first this appears to be bad for the Big East football schools, however, most likely will finally lead to a split and allow Big East football to join the other BCS conference with 12 football members. After Big Ten expands to 12, the Pac 10 will soon follow. The Pac 10 has stated this many times the Big Ten will determine the direction this conference takes with expansion.

My new fresh Big East split plan is to take 8 current Big East schools and expand to 12. The plan includes Villanova and assumes Rutgers to the Big Ten.

Number 9 is easy as UMass will complete my North division of the "Eastern BCS Conference". Latter you see the basketball benefits that actually bring this proposed north division very close to an old east look and appearance.

Number 10 is easy as well as taking UCF is a no brainier and the school has made the necessary commitment to move to a BCS conference.

Number 11 is given as Memphis will bring solid basketball to the South Division of the new "Eastern BCS Conference". Other benefits will occur and please no geographical arguments as the "Eastern BCS Conference may include any school east of the Mississippi. It is after all the Eastern BCS Conference. Get it eastern US which most think of as east of the Miss river.

Number 12 is East Carolina. This school has always needed the Big East to split and expand to 12 to get the final in the mix.

"Eastern BCS Conference"

North Division:

UMass
UConn
Syracuse
Villanova
Pitt
WVU

South Division:
Cincinnati
Louisville
Memphis
East Carolina
UCF
South Florida

Starting off with basketball the alignment would be true divisions and not like the ACC or Big 12 that blur this due to avoidance of breaking up rivalries in basketball or creation of a weak basketball division.

Championship football could rotate between north and south cities. My first pick of host cities is Pittsburgh and Tampa the second year. Wow, the ACC just moved it championship football game to Tampa to get Tampa ready for Big East football championship play.

Basketball would have true division winners. The north would be very much old Big East school with old Eastern 8 and charter Big East football schools. These schools would always play double round robin and only one game each with south division schools. The SEC has the correct idea for 12 team basketball and have two division winners and not one big 12 team division that take away the interest or spirit of 12 team conferences.

Big East football would match the projected 12 team format of the other 5 BCS conferences. The Championship game would replace rival games played for TV that hurt the conference especially this year. Plus the winner of this game always gets the BCS bid. WVU had won the BCS bid and had to play arch rival Pitt a week latter. 12 team alignments conference actually prevent this issue on most years.

Now finally the 16 team conference was just discussed in USA Today newspaper of how Memphis is better off than Louisville, Marquette, because the schedule is not as brutal in conference. This will get worse this year for Big East with 18 games. It is going to cost the Big East NCAA bids. This is just another domino waiting to happen for promoting a split.

Once the Big Ten domino falls, the Big East should finally make the move to 12 taking cuirrent Big East schools of Connecticut, Syracuse, Villanova, Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida and split. Add one more true eastern flag ship university in UMass, and three southern schools that will help with minor bowl deals.

My preference for bowls to the "Eastern BCS Conference: EBC:

1. BCS
2. Liberty and moved to New Year Day with Big East verses SEC
3. Sun Big East verses Pac 10
4. Charlotte Car Bowl Big East verses ACC
5. New Bowl in Tampa/St Pete Big East verses Big Ten
6. Texas Bowl Big East verses Big 12
7. Int Bowl as option if 7 Big East teams are available for bowls

The Big East would play all five BCS conference in bowls and the champion would play in one of the BCS bowls.

Basketball would finally have a regional fill and look again and the markets would be a little fragmented, however, would stretch from Boston to Philly including NYC and westward to Pa and WV.

The south would have the Ohio/Miss valley and Florida. East Carolina would secure the Charlotte bowl for the long term.

This format does not lose much of the current Big East market shares that really matter and bring much needed football numbers which is what drives the BCS in my 'Eastern BCS Conference".


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 2:01 pm 
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The question that should be asked is which school of the 16 team Big East hybrid is not pulling their weight to justify membership.

Number 1 is DePaul. This school is clearly not bringing in any value to the Big East. Would the Big East basketball TV contract be hurt without the Chicago market? Unless someone can present evidence the TV contract requires Chicago, it would not have much impact on the contract one way or the other.

The first move is replacing Memphis with DePaul. If not for the balance of 8 X 8 which really is an after thought in today's Big East world, Memphis would have been a much better candidate when the Big East selected the five Conf USA teams for membership.

Seton Hall has to be a close second to DePaul in lack of providing any value to the hybrid Big East. Other than being picked for the slot that was originally planned for Rutgers, this school simply is not providing any value in the hybrid Big East. A school that could easy provide more value is Temple. Regardless is the school does not play good football, it does play 1A football.

Next up is Providence? Would anyone really miss this school in the lineup. Are there any fans which have marked Providence as a must see when school is in town? Central Florida would bring as more value regardless if the school does not have a long basketball history.

Finally to get 12 football schools in the 16 hybrid which all BCS conference will eventually probably have to accomadate to be valid BCS conference, the forth school that is not bringing in much value is St John's. If you are concerned about large markets, replace St Johns with Florida Atlantic University and you pick up a nice replacement market of Miami/Ft Lauderdale market.

The point that is being made here has nothing to do with benefits or lack of benfits of hybrids and more with the teams included in the hybrid.

If you are going to be a member of hybrid, you better be bringing in some value in one of the major revenue sports of football or basketball.

Currently just do not see any value with having DePaul, Seton Hall, Providence, and St John.s in the mix.

Only Georgetown, Notre Dame, Marquette, and Villanova are making any noise in the other major revenue sport that does not play 1A Big East football.




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PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:18 am 
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Lash,

I really like your big east football allignment. if nova and umass would see the benefits of fcs football, they would really strengthen big east football longterm due to their market presence and bball history.

if things went down as you say, then the bball schools would have some interesting choices to make.

seton hall
st. johns
providence
georgetown
notre dame
depaul
marquette

these seven schools would probably add three schools. i would see these schools adding temple, holy cross, and xavier. if you wanted divisions, bring along st. louis and dayton.

temple
holy cross
st. john's
seton hall
providence
georgetown

notre dame
marquette
depaul
xavier
dayton
st. louis

i really think this arrangment would be mutually beneficial long term to everyone in the current big east hybrid.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:39 pm 
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ACCSeahawk, I believe the Big East will eventually take the path and split and your basketball alignment would be a good option for the basketball schools.

The current alignment of Big East is the issue of always trying to fit square pegs into round holes.

The straw that will probably break the Big East back is the current move to schedule 18 conference games. This may be a good move to try to unite the conference, however, the NCAA will continue to look at OOC schedules to select teams for the 64 basketball tournament. Not only will 18 conference games be more brutal than 16 a more conference wins will not help and more loses will hurt for basketball conference games. This is a square peg trying to fit into a round hole.

Then you have football that really needs at minimum one more football team to allow for 8 conference games. This is a square peg trying to fit into a round hole.

With the current 16 teams it is no wonder that everyone uses the excuse that no school out there brings any value because not one wants to think of how 17 schools would work when 16 is difficult enough. Guess 17 is one of the square pegs the Big East does not want to fit into round holes.

Football schools need to start thinking about the future of getting to 12 football members. It just a matter of time before the Big Ten expands and then the PAC 10 will follow shortly after that.

The Big East can not afford to be the only BCS conference without 12 football schools.

I think UMass will upgrade very soon and will be prepared to join the Big East as soon as the Big East football can accommodate the school. It is a very good choice.

Villanova will probably need a split to finally decide to move up to play 1A. The school does not have to build an on site stadium when teams such as U of Miami are moving into pro stadiums.

I really like the north division of UMass, UConn, Syracuse, Villanova, Pitt, and WVU.

The south division can probably look a lot of options to add three schools to go along with Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida.

My new south division for today is:

Louisville
Cincinnati
Memphis
Florida Atlantic (new stadium planned and Miami/Ft Laud market)
UCF
South Florida

The three Florida schools would help with travel for varsity sports and would help to minimize the Big East having one dominate Florida school that occurred when U of Miami was the only Florida school as a football member.

The following football alignment over time would become a great all sports conference:

North Division:

UMass
UConn
Syracuse
Villanova
Pitt
WVU

South Division:

Louisville
Cincinnati
Memphis
Florida Atlantic
UCF
South Florida



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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:05 am 
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What happened to Rutgers ?

Or do you have the Big Ten snarfing them up ?


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:14 am 
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I like the original Lash FB alignment. ECU has more tradition than FAU (although Schnellenberger has done a great job). UCF anf USF give them plenty of Fla exposure.

What about Delaware if 'Nova won't move up?


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:56 pm 
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tute79, yes I do believe Rutgers will eventually be selected as the 12th member of the Big Ten. This will then set off a chain reaction that will finally open the eyes of the football schools to form an all sports conference. Not that this would have prevented the Big Ten from taking another Big East member, it may have prevented the original raid from the ACC had the football schools formed an all sports conference. Once Big Ten expands and the PAC 10 follows to 12, I do not think the Big East football schools will have a choice and will need to split to get to 12 members to be like the other 5 BCS conferences.

Westwolf, if for some reason Villanova did not want to go with the football schools which would be a big surprise if a split were taking place, I would take Temple over Delaware. Just do not see why everyone thinks Delaware is a good fit for the Big East? New Hampshire or James Madison would make just as much sense if you are going to take that direction. Both play good football and would bring larger TV markets. I really like Florida Atlantic over East Carolina and it would make good travel benefits for the soccer and baseball teams to have an easy round trip between Orlando, Miami, and Tampa. Additionally it would be more easy to reach Ft Lauderdale for the north teams over Greenville NC. The benefits of the Sunshine state picking up Big East sports interest would be a hoot and give the ACC and possibly the SEC a run for dominance in the state of Florida. Of course they could with UCF and USF, however, adding three is like the ACC adding two Florida schools to complete with the SEC. It may just take three schools to make a statement.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2007 5:48 pm 
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the trickle down effect a big 10 expansion and/or a big east split would be very interesting as well.

i agree with lash that and when the schools finally split, they will stay north first to try to fill in their market gaps, mainly boston and philly, before taking from conference usa. you gotta think the big east will do everything in their power to get umass to move up, or else that whole market will be shut out to them for a very long while. looking a uconn, i think once umass makes the commitment, they will be fine. you gotta think the big east wants temple to improve while in the mac, because a philly school will be vital as well. i just don't know if nova will move up, because they have had chance after chance, and still won't budge. maybe a big east split will be that catalyst, especially if they are preferred over temple, which they may very well be.

the final three spots will be taken my cusa east teams. ucf, memphis, and ecu seem the logical choices. i just don't see florida atlantic making the jump from sun belt to big east, especially when the conference is already going to have one or two d1aa upgrades already. plus ecu is fighting tooth and nail trying to get in the big east. they have been working on selling themselves since the acc expansion and continue to do so, knowing a big east split is all but inevitable. their ad is very wise and has been working non stop to put them in a position to be deemed worthy by the big east. i think they will get their wish and be in the big east w/i the next 10 years.

of course if notre dame joins the big 10 and only 2 cusa east teams are needed, it is going to get pretty ugly between memphis, ecu, and ucf for who gets to go, especially if ecu is the one left, as they would be even more out of place in the cusa.


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2007 3:10 am 
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ACCSeahawk,

I don't think there are any issues with the Big East ability to retain both the Massachusetts and Philly markets. UMass has all by verbally committed to upgrading if Big East provides membership. If Villanova does not want to upgrade to a BCS conference, then Temple is in great position to get the offer for membership. The Philly and Massachusetts markets are most likely considered vital to a future 12 member all sports Big East.

Creating the south division is the most interesting.

UCF should be a lock on required votes for membership with so many advantages of location in Orlando market and possible bowl site.

Memphis may come down to damage control. Were there any bridges burned concerning Cincinnati and Louisville in the last expansion. Memphis has to rely on the votes of those two schools.

There will be seven or eight votes on expansion teams depending on which school joins the Big Ten.

If Notre Dame joins the Big Ten and there are eight votes, it could provide East Carolina the edge over Memphis. Rutgers would probably prefer East Carolina over Memphis to allow fans more ease of travel to away football games.

Possible projected votes for East Carolina verses Memphis membership:

projected votes for East Carolina: Rutgers, WVU, Pitt

projected votes for Memphis: Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati

projected swing votes: South Florida, UConn



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