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I've thrown around some ideas about the Big East from time to time...
A few KEY points:
1) If the basketball-only schools were to leave or boot the football schools, it should not be anyones assumption that a new conference would be 12 teams. The 8 BE basketball schools might consider reclaiming the Cincy market with Xavier, and might consider another midwest school for Depaul & Marquette by bringing in St. Louis. But an expansion to 12 teams might be a stretch. Why? It's basketball. A 9 team league makes it easier to schedule. It means 18 conference games per year, with each team getting a home-and-home. At 10 teams, it does mean adding a new market and 20 conference games.
I understand that 9 might make the most sense from a scheduling point of view, but the reality is that most bb conferences are between 10-12 members. The only ones left at 9 are the Mountain West, WAC, Big West, and America East. And the first two are non-auto-bid BCS conferences and remnants of what was once briefly a 16-team conference.
I also wouldn't be too concerned about the bb schools leaving under their own volition or kicking the football schools out. I am not even sure they have true solidarity enough to stick together should the fb schools ask between one and four of them to remain in a smaller version of the current hybrid (and this isn't to say it will happen, rather only if on the chance it did happen).
I think the whole situation between the Big East, A-10, and CAA is going to unravel in the next decade changing all three conferences.
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As for the football side...
The conference championship game might not be worth diluting the conference. At 8 teams, there is some concern for a defection. But at 9 or 10 teams, there is some ease. Memphis and their basketball program could be enough of a draw to bring them in for all sports. UCF would be gladly included by USF. A long shot 10 years from now could be Charlotte.
I think if there is going to be expansion for the Big East football schools, it is likely to be to 10 teams. I highly doubt UCF would be welcomed by USF, but they just might have to live with it if the other football schools believe it is necessary to have a Florida trip each and every year in terms of football recruiting.
Still having USF as a member has not been as big a boon for Big East schools' Florida recruiting as was having Miami. This may change over time though.
Cheers,
Neil