South Dakota (and North Dakota) becomes a Division I member at the start of the 2012-13 academic year. Nebraska-Omaha (the first Division II upgrade after the moratorium) becomes a Division I member at the start of the 2015-16 academic year. Once a school completes its transitional status, it becomes an active member unless if subject to a penalty under APR.
So if UMKC and ORU left:
North Dakota State (Active)
South Dakota (2012)
South Dakota State (Active)
Western Illinois (Active)
Oakland, MI (Active)
By the time UMKC left, South Dakota will count as an active member.
If further losses happen, here is the glass to be broken in case of emergency:
Chicago State (Active) - forced to resign from the Summit when it was the Mid-Continent, still very much near the center of the conference footprint
UTPA (Active) - dismissed from the Sun Belt in 1998 for failure to maintain certification with the NCAA
Houston Baptist (2011) - completed reclassfication from NAIA, now an active member of Division I
UALR (Active) - content as a member of the Sun Belt, but literally the odd school out in an FBS conference; may be on Southland's radar as well, and doesn't make much sense without ORU and UMKC
North Dakota (2012) - still has nickname issue to resolve, and would need a place to park its football program
Utah Valley (Active) - would prefer the Big Sky or WAC
Longwood (Active) - would probably be happy to be in a conference not named the Great West
NJIT (Active) - would be happy to get out of the Great West
Eastern Illinois (Active) - probably content in the OVC, but I'm sure MVFC membership (perhaps alongside North Dakota?) might be the motivation they need to leave the geographically tight OVC
If UMKC and ORU leave, adding North Dakota also screws up travel pairings, as Nebraska-Omaha would likely get paired with Western Illinois.
pretty good predictions here. the only thing i dont agree with are the schools that the SL would target. i dont see any of the texas schools being targeted if ORU/KC left. the SL has worked very hard to get rid of their outliers & wouldnt add schools even farther once the closest schools to texas would be leaving. i think the only viable candidates would be chicago state, north dakota, eastern illinois, northern kentucky & bellarmine.
i want to say i read somewhere that NKU was looking elsewhere for a home though. bellarmine also hasnt had any news lately about their wanting to transition up to d1. eastern illinois would only leave if they were able to join the mvfc with north dakota. unfortunately for north dakota, the powers that be in that state refuse to accommodate the wishes of the ncaa & might ultimately lose their post season(s) & conference home in the big sky. the SL wont even talk to north dakota until their legal issues are resolved. they would be a great addition, but not until they resolve their name issue. chicago state still hasnt really resolved any of their academic issues & would be a last resort for the SL to target again. they are a perfect market & right smack in the center of the SL's footprint, but were asked to leave.
but to be honest, i dont see ORU or KC going anywhere in the near future. if anything KC might bounce but some big things would have to shake up the d1 world to get ORU to leave.