playa4life wrote:
The options for the 3 or 4 are limited today. But when splits and realignments start happening, maybe things will
open up. One option worth mentioning is the Southland moving back up to FBS. In it's glory years the SLC did
play I-A football. The Louisiana schools would be the big question mark considering the state budget cutting.
Since they didn't want to move up before the recession, I can't image they would now.
playa4life wrote:
Another option, get UCA and SFA to move up too. That makes the 6/5 rule.
I think UCA is a real darkhorse. I don't think they expected to be as competiive as they have been. SFA, IMO, will rue the day they passed on upgrading.
playa4life wrote:
We talk about the CUSA split, but what about a Sunbelt split. Sunbelt east teams could join upgrading teams in that region
like Georgia st. Sunbelt west teams could join SLC 3 or 4. If Sunbelt west joins UTSA, Texas st, Lamar, and SHSU and La tech joins,
you will have the mighty 1970's/1980's Southland conference again. Talk about coming full circle.
This is a great point. I have thought the the unspoken advantage that might help the breakaway schools pry away members is past affiliations. Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, ULL, UTPA, NO, Lamar, and outlier UCF comprised the American South Conference. Ark State, ULM, and La Tech were former southland members. I thought this would help them pry members away, but it could also help them in if the number of members in the conference that are opposed drop off either through defection or a split. What if the Sunbelt creates the additional NCAA berth?
Lets start with defections. If CUSA split, what conference would Memphis go with? The western schools have the high endowment, big academic stature that the BCS schools like. Football-wise the east may be marginally better, but the west is more likely to get BCS status. Additionally the west has Tulsa BB, the east BB is not very good. The west is closer and has the Houston and DFW BB hotbeds for recruiting.
There is a pretty reasonable possibility you might see a 7/5 split (Memphis going with the west) with the west schools doing the east schools a solid and have a school like Tulane playing basketball only in the CUSA East to allow the east to keep their auto bid, allowing them to reload the conference. (In that scenario you might see the SWC -CUSA West- go after a school like St. Louis as their lone non-football member.)
The 5 team CUSA East could land Charlotte for at least all sports besides BB, giving the CUSA East 6 teams in all sports. In that scenario, I could see CUSA East raiding the Sunbelt east pretty hard. At that point, their league would be small and precieved as pretty marginal. IMO they would probably not be strong enough to get teams above the sunbelt level on their terms.
Killing the part of the sunbelt in their footprint might would make the resulting conference less lost in the conference clutter and would give them quantity, if a modest bump in quality. Temple could (possibly would) join for football if offered and considering the proximity to ECU and Marshall, that could happen. FAU may be an emerging non-BCS power. Same for Troy. FIU bears many of the same attribs as UCF. UCF and UAB might push for all of them. MTU and WKY might be get in to help Marshall and allow North/South split scheduling. USA has a nice stadium and is in the footprint. CUSA East would probably follow conference etiquette and not kill the sunbelt by dropping them below 6 --- costing them their autobid. (with Denver they'd be at 6.)
With 6 eastern Sunbelt schools captured, Tulane BB could split for the SWC and the new CUSA East would still satisfy the 5/6/7 rule.
In that scenario, The sunbelt has Denver, Arky St., ULL, ULM, UALR, UNO. 6 schools, 3 all sports, 3 BB, and 2 poor, sparsely populated states and a nice distant market in Denver. At that point the Sunbelt would probably be quite eager to offer slots to nearby Texas Schools UTSA (San Antonio DMA), Texas St (Austin DMA), Lamar (good BB), and SHSU (Houston DMA) --- possibly also to non-football schools UTA (DFW DMA) and ORU (Tulsa DMA) --- to add markets and bridge the conference to much needed Denver. Even at this point they only have 7 for football. (Could you get NMSU to join? Tough sell, IMO. Jacksonville State may be your best option for #8.)
My issue with that is that you are counting on a lot of movement at the top going a certain way --- and that direction might not be likely--- plus SHSU moving up afterall to even get close.
If CUSA splits 6/6 and Charlotte rejoins for all sports (due to Memphis BB and a nice footprint), the east CUSA East really only needs 1 more member to have 8 for football. Would St Louis return as well as a non-football member? Could they pry away Temple for all sports....??? With Temple, St. Louis, and Charlotte, it might be quite possible. My guts tell me they still need more big markets (FAU/FIU?)...but they could be like the WAC ---refusing to lower themslves to admit teams perceived to be lesser class.
If the Sunbelt stays at 11 or 12, there is no slot for all of the southland schools unless the sunbelt splits over travel.
So lets play that scenario out. UNT seems destined to move up. If the BE raids a team, they will likely be CUSA #12. (They almost were team #12 in the CUSA, but their facilities cost them getting in. They have since replaced all of their facilities except their stadium and are scheduled to have a new stadium completed soon to complete the renewal. In addition their athletics budget is going to be upper CUSA to MWC level in 10 years. They are the largest enrollment in the DFW DMA and most of their alumni base is local.) If they go out that would leave an ideal 9 for SBC football and a not so ideal 11 for BB.
Would the commish push to admit more Texas schools? Would they boot both BB schools and add the 3 texas schools? I don't think that is likely as it would kill the 6/6 split as a cost saving fallback position and the 3 schools on their own would not really add a lot of TV pull. Would he add the best basketball school he could land and go 9/12? Possibly. If he adds an eastern school (East Tennessee State?) that could end up being a positive financial move in terms of travel costs.
He could retain Denver for 12 to allow a west/east split, selling the member schools on the idea of creating smaller travel footprints and allowing post-season conference bowls in football and in season tourney's in BB.
New American South
Denver
UNO
ULL
ULM
ARK St.
UALR
+
UTSA
Texas State
Lamar
SHSU
UCA???
new sunbelt
FAU
FIU
USA
WKY
Troy
MTU
+
GA So.
Jacksonville State.
App. State?
JMU?
Citadel?
Maybe he could have USA play in the western conference for football for a few few years. I would not list this as a likely scenario. It is a stretch, but it is probably workable, saves money, and the Sunbelt has worked around issues like this before so I cannot eliminate it.
{edit: the recent loss of Calipari at Memphis might make this kind of thing an even longer shot.}
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