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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 9:50 pm 
I'll give it a shot:

For football . . . teams play all in their division and two from the other for a total of eight league games (three non-conference games) . . .
Big Sky North:
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
Northern Colorado
Montana
Montana State
Idaho State
Eastern Washington

Big Sky South:
Northern Arizona
Weber State
Southern Utah
Portland State
Sacramento State
Cal Poly
UC Davis


For other sports
(by travel partner pairs)
Big Sky East:
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
Montana
Eastern Washington
Montana State
Idaho State

Big Sky West:
Northern Colorado
Weber State
Northern Arizona
Southern Utah
Portland State
Sacramento State


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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 10:13 pm 
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Quote:
BTW... Big Sky attendance averages for 2005:

Montana, 23,532 (a record, naturally).
Montana State, 13,624 (that may also be a record).
Weber State, 10,151.
Idaho State, 8,480.
Northern Arizona, 7,909 (only school in the Sky where attendance fell from last year).
Eastern Washington, 7,090.
Portland State, 6,597.
Sacramento State, 5,833.

May as well throw in Great West here:

North Dakota State, 14,160.
Northern Colorado, 7,510 (after stadium expansion).
South Dakota State, 6,972.
Cal Poly, 6,959.
UC Davis, 6,618 (with one game to go versus Northern Colorado).
Southern Utah, 3,264.

Interestingly, only NDSU and UNC improved on 2004... and Cal Poly made the playoffs.


Hey Pounder,

Do you have the average attendance for U North Dakota and U South Dakota as well?

I saw somewhere where USD was averaging something like 7K this year.


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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2005 12:03 pm 
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Easy to compile... (and U. South Dakota has a dome? Have you lot no shame? :D )

North Dakota 10,126 (you'll note that I don't include playoff games in any of my analyses... UND drew 5K and change for their playoff game)

South Dakota 7,598

BTW, remind me to link that proposal to have Portland State in the same division with NDSU to the one place where PSU fans can be found. I want to hear the wretching. The majority of my fellow alums think they're far better off casting their lot with the California schools.


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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:16 pm 
Be careful when trying to draw conclusions based solely on Avg. attendance. The figures can be misleading. Because of the move from D-II to I-AA SDSU has had strange schedules the past two seasons. In '04 SDSU only had 4 home games in '05 SDSU had 8. Both Seasons SDSU outdrew USD for total fans.

SDSU '04 Home Attendance

39,384 - 4 Games - Avg. 9,846

USD '04 Home Attendance

38,290 - 6 games - Avg. 6,382


SDSU drew 1,094 more fans with 2 fewer games.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

SDSU '05 Home Attendance

55,777 - 8 Games - Avg. 6972

USD '05 Home Attendance

45,587 - 6 Games - Avg. 7598

SDSU drew 10,190 more fans with 2 more games.


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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:17 pm 
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Quote:
I'll give it a shot:

For football . . . teams play all in their division and two from the other for a total of eight league games (three non-conference games) . . .
Big Sky North:
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
Northern Colorado
Montana
Montana State
Idaho State
Eastern Washington

Big Sky South:
Northern Arizona
Weber State
Southern Utah
Portland State
Sacramento State
Cal Poly
UC Davis


For other sports
(by travel partner pairs)
Big Sky East:
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
Montana
Eastern Washington
Montana State
Idaho State

Big Sky West:
Northern Colorado
Weber State
Northern Arizona
Southern Utah
Portland State
Sacramento State


It'll be great for the Big Sky if they add North Dakota and South Dakota. But Filbert, I like your alignment and I'm impressed that Cal Poly and UC-Davis will play in the Big Sky as football associate members. Nice job. :)

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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:18 pm 
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Thanks Pounder.

Where did you find the info on D II? I can't seem to find current year attendance figures on the www.ncaa.org like I can D-1A/D-1AA?


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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:20 pm 
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Quote:
Be careful when trying to draw conclusions based solely on Avg. attendance. The figures can be misleading. Because of the move from D-II to I-AA SDSU has had strange schedules the past two seasons. In '04 SDSU only had 4 home games in '05 SDSU had 8. Both Seasons SDSU outdrew USD for total fans.

SDSU '04 Home Attendance

39,384 - 4 Games - Avg. 9,846

USD '04 Home Attendance

38,290 - 6 games - Avg. 6,382


SDSU drew 1,094 more fans with 2 fewer games.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

SDSU '05 Home Attendance

55,777 - 8 Games - Avg. 6972

USD '05 Home Attendance

45,587 - 6 Games - Avg. 7598

SDSU drew 10,190 more fans with 2 more games.


An average is an average.

You can place some qualifications in there, as you say. But relatively speaking is not too much different either way between USD and SDSU.


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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:27 pm 
Ok them, if you average the two year's per game avg. attendance this is what you get.

SDSU - 8,409

USD - 6,990

Or put another way SDSU is Avg. 20.3% more fans then USD per game.


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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:36 pm 
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Its still relatively not that much difference.

USD is averaging more than a few of those Big Sky and Great West schools.

Corrected math here. SDSU had 12 total games over the last two years with ~95,000 total attendance which equal 7,930 average attendance over those 12 games.

That's only 12% difference. Hardly anything.


Last edited by metropolitan on Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2005 9:08 pm 
I'd suggest that on-field wins and losses are a confounding factor when considering comparative attendances, at the Dakota schools and everywhere.

In other words, higher winning percentage likely has a positive correlation with attendance. I'm too lazy to actually run the statistics on it, though. Is there a Pomeroy for college basketball out there somewhere?

Anyway, I would hypothesize that USD's 18-4 record (or thereabouts) the past two years has tended to maximize their attendance.

Similarly, SDSU's 12-10 record over the past two years is probably a neutral factor. It is not completely certain whether or not the I-AA move has overall been a positive or negative for SDSU's attendance. I'd guess it has been positive overall, but you'd need to have done a study of the fan motivations for attendance to really know for sure.



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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2005 9:20 pm 
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Interesting observations filbert.

But these nuances in the reasons doesn't really change the base.

Its not really the reason why the attendance the way it is that is necessarily important in this analysis, but rather the end result. If looking at this very singular aspect, the end result is what is important when looking at college conference alignment. A school may go down and then up and then down and then up from season to season, but the bottom line is that they have a potential for that attendance level.


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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2005 3:16 pm 
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Met, I had to go to the school websites to get the attendance data. NCAA will probably post 2005 numbers for D-2 somewhere down the timeline.

Let me just state this for the record... current Big Sky schools would wretch at the expansion proposals stated. As it is, I suspect one of the Western schools (Portland State, Sacramento State, MAYBE Northern Arizona) would have to go before the votes are there to add Dakota schools. Sac State is finally getting around to the facility enhancements that might make them competitive in the Sky... they still have a LONG way to go, however, before the WAC wants them. Then there's Portland State...


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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 5:17 pm 
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http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2005/11/23/sports/sports02.txt

http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2005/11/28/sports/zsports02.txt

I'm really wondering if the numbers work for Montana given the buyout requirements and their apparent 7-home game requirement. 1-AA schedules seem to be more volatile.

Somehow, I'm thinking Montana schedules more body bag games down the line. Someday, I'm thinking that Montana learns that the small pond isn't all that profitable for them anymore.


Last edited by pounder on Mon Nov 28, 2005 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:16 pm 
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I promised a summary of the status of current Big Sky schools given recent items I observed which I thought might lead to the conference going 1-A. Right off the bat, I'll have to take that back.

EASTERN WASHINGTON- Just completed an expansion and upgrade of Woodward Stadium... and while that results in record on-campus attendance at games, they were only 82% sold for the 2005 season. 5,000-seat arena is not packed, either. The Eagles aren't going anywhere for now.

IDAHO STATE- Announced a "study" last month to evaluate facility options. ISU will be adding softball for the 2007 season. The Bengals have apparently announced that they will return men's basketball games to Holt Arena (domed stadium used primarily for football) next season. We will know more in the spring, but signs seem to point to downscaled expectations from what the AD is currently selling, due to limited donor base.

MONTANA- Montana keeps on keeping on. What I expected was the financial issue to create a public groundswell to enhance revenue, meaning a body bag game a year and enhanced consideration for moving up, but there's no groundswell, so there will be no will at the state level to make any moves.

MONTANA STATE- Short term plans exist to add and/or improve luxury suites. Long term plans (once mentioned in Boise) include expanding the stadium capacity... but that is probably tabled by the lack of a 30,000-seat requirement under the former 1-A requirements if they were to follow Montana in a move up. Record attendance might cause a groundswell for a minor expansion of seating, but no word on that possibility for now.

NORTHERN ARIZONA- Everything appears to be status quo for the Lumberjacks. Note that NAU was the only Big Sky school whose average football attendance was down from 2004 to 2005.

NORTHERN COLORADO- Recently completed stadium expansion facilitated an attendance increase of 65% (in per-game average) over 2004, which would have put them 6th in the Sky in average attendance for 2005. However, at a capacity of 8,500, it would require much more expansion for 1-A status. Furthermore, the basketball program (at 0-10 this season to date) requires a major upgrade just to be Sky-ready.

PORTLAND STATE- No recent updates are available on plans for a new basketball arena. This year's football attendance upturn does not completely make up for lost ground over the last few seasons.

SACRAMENTO STATE- Plans are progressing on the new facilities slated for campus. I'm looking for info on whether ground has broken for the rec center / arena project. Donations are still incoming for the stadium project. Football attendance still requires significant recovery from the recent handful of down seasons.

WEBER STATE- From what I understand, Weber State broke single game and season football attendance records in 2005. Football and basketball facilities could accomodate a higher-level program, but even this year's record football attendance must improve to meet 1-A threshholds.

The only schools that could be ready to move up are the Montana schools, but even that requires getting over fiscal hurdles and, for Montana State, stadium expansion. However, the state of Montana appears not to be considering such action. I don't see where anyone else is poised to make the jump. My concern has been whether Portland State could handle D-1 athletics, but recent events below the level lead me to conclude that they have no option moving down nor up, and dropping football creates more problems than it solves...

...THEREFORE...

Conditions have not changed for Dakota schools, nor Southern Utah, nor most other candidates to have a real shot at inclusion in the conference. The open questions could well be UC Davis and Cal Poly, both undergoing stadium renovations or new buildings for their respective football programs, but neither seemingly making noise to leave the Big West for the Sky.


Last edited by pounder on Mon Dec 12, 2005 12:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: New Big Sky Thread
PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:25 pm 
I don't see the sky changing for a while.


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