A10 Realignment

JPSchmack · **Joined:** Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:21 pm **Posts:** 1038

fighting muskie wrote:

JP-- lately, it seems like the high mid majors really struggle to pick up autobids. The A-10 can do it but I really don't count them as a mid major because they are the bottom of the top tier of men's basketball. The WCC can do it but only thanks to the trio of Gonzaga, St Mary's, and BYU but they are about the only ones. A 14 member C-USA can't even get two bids. With that said, do you think that mid majors who have enjoyed basketball success are better off staying in their regional leagues and dominating them rather than trying to piece together a league together or chasing the A-10 where they can expect to be middling programs?

I assume you mean "at-larges" or "multiple" bids. Yes, the A-10 is a major conference now because they always get 3+ bids.

There's two reasons mid-majors are dead:
#1 - The basketball mid-majors got raided by the Big East & A-10 (Butler, Creighton, VCU, George Mason - and Memphis, Tulsa, BYU)
#2 - The football mid-majors over-expanded for football and their RPI games got crushed (MWC, C-USA).

You mentioned the 14-team Conference USA. Prime example.

We all know every conference goes .500 against itself. The top of your league is going to be 16-2, 15-3, 14-4. Which means if they don’t suck OOC, they have a record worthy of an at-large bid… if their RPI is high enough.

The A-10 went .659 OOC (About 8-4 on average).
C-USA went .411 OOC (about 5-7 on average).

When Dayton, GW, Davidson finish 1-2-3 in the A-10, they’ll be like 25-7 to 22-10
When MTSU, ODU, LA Tech finish 1-2-3 in Conference USA, they’ll be 23-9 to 19-13

The A-10 opponents those three will beat, will be on average: 17-13; So the A-10’s Top 3 will be in the 20, 30, 40 RPI range (all dance)
The C-USA opponent those three will beat, will be on average, 14-16, but C-USA’s Top 3 will be in the 70, 90, 105 RPI range (one bid league)

What conference realignment has done is consolidated the power so almost all the successful OOC teams in the same few conferences. The old CollegeRPI.com website has data available from 1994-2015. Here’s the number of conferences in OOC Win Pct ranges:

OOC WIN% - - - ’95-’05-’15
.650 to .850 - 8 - 9 - 6
.550 to .649 - 4 - 3 - 6
.500 to .549 - 4 - 1 - 0

.450 to .499 - 3 - 3 - 4
.000 to .449 - 14 -15 -16

We went from 16 winning conferences and 17 losing conferences in 1995
To 12 winning conferences and 20 losing conferences in 2015.

JPSchmack · **Joined:** Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:21 pm **Posts:** 1038

Well, the A10 got teams 1-1-4 into the dance, instead of their three first place teams, and fourth place (And I'm filled with murderous rage).

It will be interesting to see how the A-10 reacts.

There's a rumor that the A-10 has a "only one road guarantee game" policy, where schools aren't allowed to take a big check from a big school and play on the road more than once, so that everyone gets wins OOC and everyone helps the league's RPI.

Which was a sound strategy. Generally speaking teams in the bottom half going 9-3 or 10-2 OOC and then being 8-14 in the conference standings... no one cares about your OOC SOS. In the unlikely event you win the league after a weak OOC SOS... the only way you're left out of the dance is if you get MONUMENTALLY SCREWED LIKE ST. BONAVENTURE.

I hope the A-10 doesn't overreact to the Bonnies snub, because that kind of season is gonna happen 1 time in a hundred seasons. It was the perfect storm. Are the Bonnies even in the mix if Rhode Island's best player doesn't tear his ACL? The Bonnies beat URI, but if Matthews is healthy, not only does URI beat Bona once, but they probably split with St. Joe's. There'd be more bubble teams and less safely in teams, which makes VCU more of a bubble team (depending on their game with URI).

The A-10 (or top 8 of the A-10) should strongly consider forming a new league and abandoning LaSalle & Fordham in favor of Wichita State and Northern Iowa. Is it sad that I'm hoping UMass leaves so we have an excuse to add the Shockers?

JPSchmack · **Joined:** Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:21 pm **Posts:** 1038

Actually, screw it. The Atlantic 10 should just add Wichita State right now.

Last season, we had three groups (West, South, Northeast) who played each other twice each, with 1-2 hand-chosen second time match ups.

With 15 teams, it’s one vs everyone (14) and an extra vs your region (4).

West: WSU, Dayton, Bona, Duquesne, SLU
South: VCU, GW, DC, Richmond, GMU
East: SJU, URI, Fordham, UMass, LaSalle

Bona would lose the extra games with St. Joe's & UMass (went 4-0), and replace it with two Wichita State games (so say -1)
Dayton would lose URI & LaSalle (2-2) and get two Wichita State games.
St. Joe’s would lose Bona (0-2) and get one WSU game (0).
VCU would replace SLU with WSU (0)
GW would replace Duquesne with WSU (0)
Davidson would replace Duquesne with WSU (0)

Dayton 14-4 (2 more Top 50 games)
VCU 14-4 (1 more Top 50 game)
WSU 13-5 (6 more Top 50 games!)
Bona 13-5 (one more Top 50 game)
St. Joe’s 13-5 (no change)
GW 12-6 (one more Top 50 game)
DC 9-9 (one more Top 50 game)

We’d have been a 5 or 6 bid league.

freaked4collegefb · **Joined:** Tue Jun 13, 2006 2:37 pm **Posts:** 8574

VCU article discussing report that AAC "may" be interested in inviting A-10 members VCU and Dayton at https://vcuramnation.com/2017/03/vcu-wi ... others-aac

JPSchmack · **Joined:** Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:21 pm **Posts:** 1038

freaked4collegefb wrote:

VCU article discussing report that AAC "may" be interested in inviting A-10 members VCU and Dayton at https://vcuramnation.com/2017/03/vcu-wi ... others-aac" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's a guy talking like our posters talk. "They should...." No smoke, no fire.

The VCU AD came out and said "yeah, we're not interested." Which he wouldn't do if there was actual contact.

A10 Realignment

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