I’m moving this from the MVC thread to the A-10 thread, since it's all about the A-10.
fighting muskie wrote:
JP, intriguing commentary as usual. So you think the A-10 is one big happy family?
Sorry, I missed this earlier.
I think everyone IS “one big happy family” in a general sense:
Yes, all the Privates would prefer a Big East invitation. But
- George Washington, Saint Joseph’s, La Salle, Fordham know it’s NEVER COMING.
- St. Bonaventure and Duquesne know it’s not coming unless they make MAJOR PROGRESS.
- Dayton knows if they keep it up, they’re next on the Big East invitation list (and it’s hard to be unhappy with FIVE NCAA wins in two years, and a 30-11 record vs Power 5 conferences in the last nine seasons)
- Saint Louis knows with their market, success equals a look from the Big East.
- Richmond knows that with Dayton & Saint Louis both western, they’re in the mix for the Big East’s “Sixth Eastern Team” slot
- Davidson is new, freaking stoked to be out of the SoCon and have at-large access in MAJOR CONFERENCE like the A-10. They keep this up a few more years and the “We’re better than Richmond! We should be the Big East’s Sixth Eastern Team" can start.
As for the public’s:
- UMass wants an all-sport invite from the American (or better)
- VCU has been very successful.
- Rhode Island knows they need to make progress, like an NCAA Tourney for the first time since 1999.
- George Mason is happy to be out of the CAA, and know they have work to do to get out of the bottom third.
It’s a very acceptable status quo. Of course, we all want everyone else to win more OOC games, and we all want to be one of the teams that dance.
But remember three years ago when Xavier, Butler, Temple, and Charlotte left… people were saying LOTS OF THINGS about the death of the A-10. And how the CAA/MVC would usurp us. And we responded by setting our conference record with SIX BIDS and rolling in the loot of those six bids and everything X & Temple left on the table. Dayton keeps wrecking fools in March, we’re hands down a Top 8 conference. Each year we can argue we’re better than a one or both of the two old Big East halves; AND one of the “Power 5.” (Pac-12 some years, SEC - UK others).
Once the Big East stopped (or paused) at 10, the A-10 was safe. Not because losing two more would have been a death blow… but it prevented OVERREACTION and potential unwise decisions. If the A-10 lost seven, including SLU, UD, & Richmond to a (12-team) Big East (without Creighton), the A-10 could have panicked, added three more members that proved to be Fordham quality just to have numbers, and that would have been bad.
Now if we lose UD & someone to the Big East, we KNOW we’ll be fine. We’ll take the best candidate from the leagues below us and SOMEONE’s gonna finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, et al; And because we’re better than at least 22 other leagues, our 3rd and 4th place teams are gonna go 9-3 OOC, 13-5 or 12-6 A-10 and be in the top 60 of the RPI and have a shot at 3-4 bids every year.
But I digress.
fighting muskie wrote:
I feel like St Louis would at least be clamoring for some Midwestern expansion.
SLU isn’t clamoring for MW expansion for the sake of expansion. If someone left (like UMass), then Saint Louis would probably be in favor of someone like Wichita State or Northern Iowa, over say, Siena or Northeastern. Yeah. Sure.
Then again, so would I. Because WSU has a Final Four, UNI is the only team in basketball undefeated all-time against AP #1 with more than one try. Siena is just LaSalle in a weaker conference and Northeastern… participates in NCAA Division I basketball.
UNI has FCS football and the MVFC is the No. 1 FCS conference. Wichita State doesn’t. So, I think that’s plausible: WSU to the A-10.
If UMass leaves and Wichita State calls about their spot, I think the entire league is gonna side with SLU on Midwestern expansion.
fighting muskie wrote:
UMass seems like they have one foot out the door which probably rubs a few the wrong way but since UMass is one of the biggest brands in the league it seems to be tolerated.
Yeah, they started their FBS program. Every school has to chase their best chance for success. Temple aspired to be a Big East member for all sports since Day One. No one held it against them. Out of the three schools (Temple, Charlotte, UMass) that have chose that path since the early 90s… Temple & UMass were unbelievable for our league in the 90s, Temple in the 2000s. UMass has fallen off but are still a decent program. They never embarrass us.
Charlotte is held in far more contempt. Because we were there for them when C-USA 2.0 kicked them out. They went from consistent NCAA team in C-USA to terrible A-10 team… then started FBS football and bailed. Like, really dudes? You couldn’t have just started football in 2003? We coulda added SLU & Butler back then and had the Bulldogs' Final Fours on our ledger!
fighting muskie wrote:
I always thought that the A-10 was sort of an odd amalgam. 2 New England state schools, Fordham, a catholic school out in western NY, 3 catholic schools in PA, 2 Midwestern Catholic schools, and now a wing of 5 southern schools none of whom are Catholic. I think for the A-10 the tie that binds them all together is that they are considered a step above the Colonial and other regional leagues.
We have ALWAYS BEEN and always will be “The Best the Big East Didn’t Want.” That’s really what binds us. If you don’t have FBS football, but are good at hoops in the East… we are where it’s at. That ain’t gonna change.
fighting muskie wrote:
i like your point about dead weight programs--the A-10s dead weight is another conference's perennial contender and vice versa. I think that's why they tolerate them and aren't in a rush to grab up the latest and hottest mid-majors.
I’ve been saying it all along: Siena is LaSalle in a weaker conference. Go RPI breakdown over decades. Siena is 4 wins better per season, with 4 more wins over terrible teams. La Salle is 4 wins worse per season, and 4 more losses vs Top 50 opponents each year. Then La Salle has to beat THREE top 50 teams in a row to get an auto bid. Just because you win one-bid autos doesn't mean you can be a program that can earn at-larges in the A-10. (Fordham, Duquesne & Mason are still trying!). Not everyone is Davidson, with a consistent coach/system for 3 decades. They've been tremendous for us).
I really don't have high hopes for anyone with a decent number of NCAA bids in a one-bid league joining us and making us better.
I'd probably favor a school who are spending on infrastructure (Stony Brook) over the schools that have 8 autobids in 25 years. If you want an invite, you gotta DOMINATE your league Gonzaga/Memphis/Butler style for a DECADE, like Davidson did in the SoCon. Or you gotta make a Final Four like Butler, VCU and Mason. (And Wichita State has, so they're #1 on our "if UMass goes..." list.
There’s two other reasons the A-10 isn’t in a rush to grab the latest & hottest mid-majors:
#1 - We already did.
#2 - Mid-Majors are dead now.
A “mid-major” is a conference that’s a one-bid league if their regular season champ wins the auto, but can steal an at-large if they lose in their tourney.”
In 2011, you had six of those conferences:
WCC - Gonzaga (Auto)
C-USA - Memphis (Auto)
Horizon - Butler (Auto)
CAA - Old Dominion (Auto), VCU (At Large) & George Mason (At Large)
MVC - Indiana State (Auto)
WAC - Utah State (Auto)
And Butler and VCU went to the Final Four that year.
Since:
That was the only time in the last 10 years the WCC had one bid. The WCC outgrew the label and added BYU (and Pacific, who had two autos and an at-large in the Big West from 2004-07).
The MVC lost Creighton, but Wichita State and UNI stepped up and they’re a multi-bid league now.
Conference USA lost Memphis et al, basically became the Sun Belt, bloated to the point no one can stand out, and faded
Horizon lost Butler (to the A-10, then Big East) and faded
Colonial lost VCU & George Mason (to the A-10) and faded
Since then, we’ve had TWO mid-major at-larges total:
2012 - Southern Miss (C-USA)
2013 - Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt) and MTSU replaced Memphis in C-USA.
Mid-Majors are dead. The schools that made their leagues mid-majors graduated to the Big East, WCC, A-10 and MVC now.
NO ONE dominates their one-bid league so much they're in the at-large discussion if they lose it anymore. Except maybe Wichita State or Northern Iowa. But both are strong, making them a multi-bid league.