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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 5:08 pm 
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JPSchmack wrote:
Thanks, you get my PM about Seattle/Denver and the WAC/WCC?


Yes, but I think it was just a poor job in my writing. I stated what you did, that Pacific is joining, I just didn't phrase it smoothly.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 5:18 pm 
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Quinn wrote:
JPSchmack wrote:
Thanks, you get my PM about Seattle/Denver and the WAC/WCC?


Yes, but I think it was just a poor job in my writing. I stated what you did, that Pacific is joining, I just didn't phrase it smoothly.


meh, you mean this was just about sentence structure. I thought JP had another UOP to the WCC type info before it officially came out, w/ Denver and Seattle.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 5:31 pm 
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Fresno St. Alum wrote:
JPSchmack wrote:
Thanks, you get my PM about Seattle/Denver and the WAC/WCC?

I want in on this


No insider info, just some feedback on his WAC Life Support, where he said Denver has to hope the WCC takes them for #12 instead of Seattle when he meant with Seattle.

Of course, maybe he's got insider info about BYU leaving the WCC?

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 5:39 pm 
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JPSchmack wrote:
Fresno St. Alum wrote:
JPSchmack wrote:
Thanks, you get my PM about Seattle/Denver and the WAC/WCC?

I want in on this


No insider info, just some feedback on his WAC Life Support, where he said Denver has to hope the WCC takes them for #12 instead of Seattle when he meant with Seattle.

Of course, maybe he's got insider info about BYU leaving the WCC?

Well if he does he should post what he "projects" will happen. :D

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 6:55 pm 
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Another reason the NCAA loot is less of a hold-up that we'd expect for these three:

The newcomer's shares are front-loaded, and Temple's shares are more spread out (5-6-6-5-5-3-1).

So while VCU, GMU and Butler are expecting to pull in a combined value of 10.2 more units than Temple (41.2 to 31); Temple's 31 units have a higher average value:
NEW THREE AVG SHARE VALUE: $304,517.12
TEMPLE'S AVG SHARE VALUE: $310,307.39

Throw in Temple's exit fee, and the A-10 is basically FIVE shares short of covering their earnings, not 10.2 shares short.


Take all the expected payouts from those three ($12,536,056), and each's schools percentage of that expected payout (Butler 22.25%, GMU 22.04%, VCU 55.69%) and give them that percentage of Temple's earnings/exit fee ($10,619,529) and the REAL COST to each school to switch leagues is:

Butler would lose $426,616.17
Mason would lose $422,520.08
VCU would lose $1,067,391.14

For Butler and George Mason, that's ONE-FIFTH of a future NCAA bid.
For VCU, it's ONE-HALF of a future NCAA bid.

It's a calculated gamble that being in the A-10 would mean one more future NCAA bid than they'd get in the Horizon or CAA.

For Mason, that's a no-brainer decision. The CAA's gotten four at-larges in a decade. The 16-team A-10 could get four a year.
For Butler, it's a tougher sell because they won the Horizon so frequently.

But there's also attendance/revenue considerations. The A-10 schedule is going to be more of a draw. TV revenue will be higher (Travel will be slightly higher), and recruiting is going to get better.

All in all, those figures above are acceptable losses for the benefits of A-10 membership.

But mainly, those three should go because of the Opportunity Cost of saying no.

It's foolish NOT TO parlay the Final Four runs into a better conference. If they don't go now, maybe next time it's Detroit and Drexel who get the invite. You have to assume you'll never be back to the Final Four, so cash in while you can.

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 Post subject: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 7:05 pm 
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Excellent analysis, jp. Sums it up perfectly.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 7:16 pm 
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Quinn wrote:
Excellent analysis, jp. Sums it up perfectly.



Of course, the people who need to see that are the VCU/Butler fans who think "Why go to the A-10?" (Far more in the VCU camp than Butler camp).

For you guys, it's just dollar figures on "Common sense."

But I was bored at work.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2012 9:56 am 
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Article out of Roanoke discussing VCU/George Mason to the A-10 situation at http://www2.wsls.com/sports/2012/may/01 ... ar-1880958


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2012 3:14 pm 
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That silly "no movement" story on VCU is from the Richmond Times Dispatch **EDIT - sorry freaked, same article as your link**

Quick recap:
-- VCU "weighing pros and cons" (Stupid. It's virtually all pros. Ask Richmond).
-- Teague recommends staying in CAA thru 2012-13 (Duh. They CAN'T leave for next year).
-- VCU worried BE Hoops could break away and raid A-10. (Uh, not going to happen. Basketball wants to be tied to football for relevance. Football could leave them, sure. But we've been waiting on this for 20 years and the worse football gets, the more likely they are to stay with basketball powers that don't play FB.
-- VCU doesn't want to lose NCAA Tournament dough (As explained, they can be comensated from Temple's share.)


Here's what would happen if VCU and George Mason joined the A-10 a year after Butler:
VCU and George Mason each collect 4.05 shares worth from CAA (2012 payments).

Butler (2012-2018) and VCU/Mason (2013-2018) combined would be due $10,442,190

The A-10 would have $10,619,529 in "Temple Money" (31 NCAA shares thru 2018, exit fee; not counting any shares earned by Temple this season). VCU/Mason would only be walking away from whatever shares they earn in 2012-13 for the future.

And honestly, that's one hell of a deal. What other conference has compensated their NEWCOMERS for moving UP in conference stature? A-10 membership alone is a reason to make the move.

Negotiate for a little of the Temple stash and jump aboard the A-10 express. Next stop, Five Bids.

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Last edited by JPSchmack on Tue May 01, 2012 3:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2012 3:47 pm 
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Just saw the CBSsports report on Charlotte and Old Dominion.

Well, the A-10 could force VCU to move quickly by threatening to add Butler and ONE MORE for 14, instead of adding three for 16.

The CAA is losing three schools, the football schism is turning into Big East calamity proportions for them with diverse interests and those left run the risk of being left behind.


Does the A-10 still go to 16? And if so... do they stay local and look at CAA? Or do they get creative?

Davidson could be a solid add to replace Charlotte. But the big move would be Creighton.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2012 3:52 pm 
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So who is #16 in the A10 now? Detroit? Siena?, Creighton? Davidson?

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2012 4:59 pm 
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Fresno St. Alum wrote:
So who is #16 in the A10 now? Detroit? Siena?, Creighton? Davidson?


Basketball wise, Creighton.

Market wise, Detroit. But Boston U might make sense if UMass goes to the MAC.

I'd rank the A-10's list as:

1. Butler (11 NCAA bids, Last 2011. Two Final Fours)
2. VCU (11 NCAA bids, Last 2012. One Final Four)
3. Creighton (16 NCAA bids, last 2012. 0 FF)
4. George Mason (6 NCAA bids, last 2011, One Final Four)
5. Boston U (7 NCAA bids, last 2011. 0 FF)
6. Detroit (5 NCAA bids. last 2012. 0 FF)
7. Davidson (10 NCAA bids, last 2012. 0 FF)

Dark Horse: Long Island-Brooklyn

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2012 7:58 pm 
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Butler official tomorrow. From wedge on the csn board

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story ... ource-says

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2012 10:00 am 
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Looking at the A-10 line-up (with Butler, GMU, VCU, minus Temple, minus UNCC), I'm wondering if the conference is trying to create 4 Pods:

NE: UMass, URI, St. Bonnie, Fordham
PA: St. Joe, LaSalle, Duquesne, ?
West: Xavier, Dayton, Butler, SLU
South: GWU, GMU, VCU, Richmond

So that one Pods may not be Pennsylvania, per se, but perhaps the clue to the 16th team might be who fits in there geographically ???

Maybe a powerhouse like - DREXEL !!!!!!

Drexel doesn't seem like the answer, but the A-10 lay-out does appear to be very pod-like.


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2012 10:06 am 
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Article out of Green Bay reporting that Horizon Commish announced this morning that Butler is leaving for the A-10.Link at http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/art ... -Green-Bay


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