Again, I ask. Why on earth would a new league like the new Big East WANT to expand to 16 following a breakup with the football schools? Why wouldn't they simply stay at 8 or add 1-2 so there are no more than 10 schools. More schools = less profit.

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Quinn, if you'll reread my post you'll find I'm not advocating a 16 team conference. In fact, I was questioning the value of expanding beyond 8 members because of how many comparable schools were available for candidacy. My example is for two different 8 team conferences.

You and I are asking the same question: For a 1-AA conference what would be the best combination: 8, 10 or 12?

I believe that an expansive (10+) post-2010 basketball BIG EAST would emerge out of a compromise between the EASTern and Midwest (Collegiate) factions...

It doesn't seem as though Xavier would be added without Dayton or vice versa; accordingly, I'm not certain that certain programs (namely Notre Dame and Villanova) would necessarily be in favor of an 18-game conference schedule...that being said a 10-member/16-game conference could be possible, if not ideal...

If only one member were added, that member would seem to be Holy Cross...the conference could employ a double round-robin with a Notre-Dame-DePaul-Marquette road swing...

The East-West ratios of a post-2010 basketball BIG EAST could appear as follows...

5/3
5/5 (Dayton, Xavier)
6/3 (Holy Cross)
6/6 (Holy Cross/Dayton, Saint Louis, Xavier)

I just envision Holy Cross emerging as a post-2010 BIG EAST expansion candidate out of sentimental deference to Providence, with PC having lost fellow charter members and New England institutions Boston College and Connecticut...

Gunner -

How on earth does a conference "gently off-load weaker members" ?

I think there are several conferences out there right now that would love to jettison a school, but unless the school is willing, it might be an ugly divorce.

If such a thing were possible, I think you would see much faster re-alignment than is curently occurring.
You'd have a consolidation of power and a bunch of cast-offs who would probably glom onto one another just to avoid independence.

For example - look at the A-10 - Duquesne and LaSalle and Fordham hardly pull their weight (with regard to bringing in BB revenue / value to the conference as a whole). Just suppose the A-10 wanted to drive them off, and replace them with higher profile candidates. LAWSUIT !!! The light-weights don't want to leave while they are benefitting from a gravy train. And so the A-10 is limited in inviting other prospects, since it is already bloated at 14. So we sit until movement is initiated (generally from higher up in the pecking order).

I agree with you that when the Big East splits and the A-10 is cherry-picked by the BB schools, the cascade may continue on downward to the American East, MAAC, Patriot, and / or NEC. I believe that you have that right. Hopefully at that time, some of these D-1AA conference anomalies will be corrected.

Why would Villanova return to I-A as a member of Football EAST only to play a partial schedule?

Also, it seems like Army's departure from C-USA was more about competition/schedule concerns than preparing itself for Football EAST...presumably Army saw C-USA as an opporunity to stabilize the competitive level of its football program, akin to what Air Force had managed to accomplish in its first decade in the WAC, and was able to continue into the Mountain West...

At the conclusion of its fifth season in the WAC, Air Force finished consecutive seasons with victories over Notre Dame and in a bowl game and Ken Hatfield parlayed his success into the Arkansas job...the 1984 Air Force team made a smooth transition under Fisher DeBerry and had completed its third consecutive victories over Notre Dame and in a bowl game..

At the conclusion of its fifth season in C-USA, Army finished with its sixth consecutive losing season (tying 1978-1983 for the worst such streak in its history) and had six conference wins (five of these over Houston and Tulane) in five years...the 2003 Army team finished 0-13...

I seem to recall that Army's announcement of departure from C-USA preceded the official announcements that even Miami and Virginia Tech were leaving the BIG EAST (June 30, 2003), or at least before the announcement that the BIG EAST would be adding the five C-USA institutions (November 2003)...

Mr. Ouija -

Come to think of it, I think you may be correct with regard to the timing of Army's decision to withdraw from CUSA. I think it may have been in response to a study about future competitiveness, chaired by some folks like Bill Parcells, Tom Osborne, and Bobby Ross (?) - I remember that occuring, but I wouldn't swear to the timing of that either.

As CUSA has evolved into a Texas / SE conference following the loss of Army, Cincy, Louisville (and later USF), Army (had they stayed) would have wound up with quite a bit more travel. Army probably ended up making a fortuitous decision, however they almost assuredly didn't see the transformation of CUSA coming when they decided to go independent.

i agree with dave, army saw the success navy was having as and indep. playing a lighter schedule and wanted in so they left cusa w/ no hard feelings. they would have done so even if the acc didnt expand. as for nova, if they do decide to upgrade, i just see them and temple switching places in the big east spilt with nova being added to the fball side and temple to the basketball side. what temple would do with their football program i do not know.

also quinn, i understand what you are saying about not expanding past 10, but if they truly want to be a power, adding xavier, dayton, st. louis, and a massachuets school would be the way to go and it would ease travel with divisions being obvious. plus thats what i want to see happen ;D

one last thing, i think the a10 welcomed charlotte and st. louis not only because they were but because they knew they would probably be cherried picked and needed to beef up in order to maintiain the 6/5 rule. remember boston u was a candidate too which is why i think they have a chance at the a10 should umass leave.

it will get real interesting when it comes to schools such as hofstra and deleware. if the a10 needs schools, they would be great options, but i seriously doubt they would be willing to leave after working so hard to get the caa football and being in one conference for all sports.

Again, I don't think a post-2010 BIG EAST split would have been a potential threat to the A-10's 6/5 status if UNCC and Saint Louis hadn't been added. The A-10 currently has eleven of its twelve/fourteen members in 6/5 compliance...

By 2010, all fourteen (presumed) members should be in 6/5 compliance, and it seems unlikely that the A-10 would lose more than eight members...

Duquesne, Fordham, LaSalle, and Saint Bonaventure are virtual "untouchables"...

It would appear as though George Washington, UNCC, Rhode Island, and Richmond would have few realistic options...

The departure of Saint Joseph's would have to be preceded by Villanova aligning itself with the Football EAST schools...

The departure of UMass would have to be preceded by an upgrade to I-A...

Dayton, Saint Louis, Temple, and Xavier are the obvious "wild-cards" in this process...

That being said, maybe Fordham (ex-PL) or even Duquesne could leave for the Patriot League...

Maybe LaSalle (ex-MAAC) or Saint Bonaventure could leave for the MAAC...

Maybe Rhode Island (ex-America East) or UMass could leave for the America East...

Maybe Richmond (ex-CAA), UNCC, or George Washington could leave for the CAA...

It seemed like the A-10 cited a probable RPI boost in its decision to "rescue" UNCC and Saint Louis (just as it had "rescued" Dayton and Virginia Tech a decade earlier)...it should be noted that the 2005 expansion will coincide with (another) abandonement of divisional play by the A-10, as the dichotomy between the West and East seems to be growing (akin to what happened between the C-USA North err..."National" and the C-USA South err..."American"). The addition of UNCC/SLU and the abandonement of divisional play will probably mean fewer "Bonnie-Joey" games and Fordham-Temple matchups...that being said, I wonder if any home and home series will be "guaranteed" in the A-14, such as...

Dayton-Xavier
Massachusetts-Rhode Island
Saint Joseph's-Temple

Note that Big Five member LaSalle has been a member of the A-10 West since its addition (despite an obvious geographic contrast between LaSalle and Saint Bonaventure) and probably hasn't played a two-game regular-season series with Saint Joseph's/Temple since all were members of the East Coast Conference (1974-1982)...

To dat UMASS and URI as well as Villanova have not said yes to CAA football.

It is quite possible that ND's deal to play 3 BE football per year is part of an arrangement with Villanova to share the 9th membership in BE football.Such arrangements had spoken of between ND and NAVY in the 2003 period.

Also the NCAA is likely to do away with the 1AA football classification in April.

Again, why would Villanova play a "partial" BIG EAST Football schedule? They don't have a "national" schedule itinerary ala Notre Dame or the service academies...they were an "unofficial" BIG EAST charter member and shared charter membership in the E-8/A-10 with Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and West Virginia...a "partial" football membership for Villanova simply doesn't make practical sense...UConn made the jump to I-A and scuttled I-AA "rivals" (former Yankee members) without difficulty...who else would Villanova be scheduling? MAC schools?

No Villanova would be a full part of BE football .They would share a sort of membership with ND and be part of a bowl package.I would also assume they would play Army and Navy.They would likely keep Delaware and Temple.

How could Villanova both "be a full part of BIG EAST Football," and "share a sort of membership with Notre Dame and be a part of a bowl package"? Why would Villanova play the service academies, Delaware, and Temple, but not necessarily UConn, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, and West Virginia on an annual basis? On what basis would Villanova abscond with bowl tie-ins comparable to Notre Dame or the service academies?

ND and Villanova are the 9th member together for BE football.Villanova would need to play 8 games in 1A to be bowl eligible.Add Army,Navy and Temple to 5BE games you got 8.

tigersharktwo, could you explain to me your shared big east membership theory. i am curious as to how you see things unfolding.