Also, I was wondering, if SLU and Dayton(or Rich/Duq) leave for the BE.....will that trigger any other A-10 schools to make their move at that time? Will that be the straw that broke the camels back for any schools?
There's no straw. The A-10 isn't going to lose anyone for any reason besides:
#1 - UMass joins the American for football reasons.
#2 - SLU/Dayton/Richmond/VCU/Duquesne get a Big East invite
#3 - Fordham decides the hell with athletics, academics of the Patriot League are for us.
Only the first two hurt the A-10. But none of those BREAK the A-10.
Rhode Island, George Washington, St. Joseph's, LaSalle, George Mason, and St. Bonaventure CAN'T leave the A-10 for a better conference. They won't be invited to the Big East for market reasons, the first five because the BE has them covered, and in the case of Bona (my alma mater, BTW), they have no market.
Since the last Independent got an NCAA bid in 1991, current A-10 members have earned 28 at-large bids:
-- 17 at-large bids by those six A-10 schools who will DEFINITELY remain.
-- 11 by A-10 schools who could be Big East invitees (SLU 4, UD 3, Rich 2, VCU 2)All the other schools without FBS football have combined for 29 at-large bids in that span
-- 12 by Missouri Valley (3 by Wichita State, who could be a Big East invitee)
-- 11 by West Coast members (not including BYU, who has independent football)
-- 3 by Horizon League members (GB 96, DET 97, UIC 98)
-- 1 by Southland members (New Orleans, 1993)
-- 1 by CAA members (Col of Charleston, 1994)
-- 1 by MAAC members (Manhattan, 1995)
And since 2000, it's:
18 by A-10
10 by MVC
10 by WCC
I'm assuming WCC schools joining/pilfering from the A-10 is off the table; but there's no scenario in which the A-10 breaks up or even becomes a shell of its former self.