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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Feb 04, 2014 2:38 am 
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Fresno St. Alum wrote:
Like TK said Dayton and Cincy are different makets just like Balt and DC. So why argue for a suckier school close to another market vs a good school close to another market.

Where do you think the 12 "left behind" schools in the A-10 will upgrade to after the BE takes 2. I already showed you the next best behind the A-10 and their 8 schools w/ ncaa tourneys the last 5 years vs the MVCs 4. Plus the A10 markets are far better than the MVC. Only UMass if given an ultimatum would have to move.


One thing I do want to (repeatedly) point out about Dayton regarding the market thing:

Markets are a measure of population based on census bureau formula. Not any kind of indication of actual fan base.

Because Kentucky is on the other side of the river, suburban growth in Cincy has been mostly north. Cincy's DMA has included Middletown for a long time because they reached it first. (Think of Dallas-Ft. Worth, and where DFW is, that's Middletown. Actually, if Congress hadn't haphazardly approved a new airport in northern Kentucky at the start of WWII, Cincinnati-Dayton would be one big market like that).

But the idea that Middletown is somehow more Xavier basketball territory than Dayton basketball territory is categorically insane.

Considering Cincinnati-Dayton as one metro area, you have the #19 market in the country. Now, you don't "need" both teams to have a presence in the market of 2.929 million people. But if you have both teams, you DELIVER the market.

There's Cincy, Xavier, Dayton, Kentucky and Ohio State fans in the market. No one team is bringing you the majority, but UD/Xavier gives you a plurality… and two pretty good rivalry games for TV.

Plus, Dayton's gonna watch all the other conference teams play, their CBB ratings are spectacular.


And that's to say nothing of the fact that Dayton wins OOC and loses in conference. Which is really what I'd want out of a new member. I don't want a new team coming in and getting to the dance over my team. I want them helping our RPI and finishing at the bottom.

But, as a Bona guy, I hope the Big East remains to stupid to realize this.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Feb 04, 2014 4:24 pm 
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JPSchmack wrote:
Fresno St. Alum wrote:
Like TK said Dayton and Cincy are different makets just like Balt and DC. So why argue for a suckier school close to another market vs a good school close to another market.

Where do you think the 12 "left behind" schools in the A-10 will upgrade to after the BE takes 2. I already showed you the next best behind the A-10 and their 8 schools w/ ncaa tourneys the last 5 years vs the MVCs 4. Plus the A10 markets are far better than the MVC. Only UMass if given an ultimatum would have to move.


One thing I do want to (repeatedly) point out about Dayton regarding the market thing:

Markets are a measure of population based on census bureau formula. Not any kind of indication of actual fan base.

Because Kentucky is on the other side of the river, suburban growth in Cincy has been mostly north. Cincy's DMA has included Middletown for a long time because they reached it first. (Think of Dallas-Ft. Worth, and where DFW is, that's Middletown. Actually, if Congress hadn't haphazardly approved a new airport in northern Kentucky at the start of WWII, Cincinnati-Dayton would be one big market like that).

But the idea that Middletown is somehow more Xavier basketball territory than Dayton basketball territory is categorically insane.

Considering Cincinnati-Dayton as one metro area, you have the #19 market in the country. Now, you don't "need" both teams to have a presence in the market of 2.929 million people. But if you have both teams, you DELIVER the market.

There's Cincy, Xavier, Dayton, Kentucky and Ohio State fans in the market. No one team is bringing you the majority, but UD/Xavier gives you a plurality… and two pretty good rivalry games for TV.

Plus, Dayton's gonna watch all the other conference teams play, their CBB ratings are spectacular.


And that's to say nothing of the fact that Dayton wins OOC and loses in conference. Which is really what I'd want out of a new member. I don't want a new team coming in and getting to the dance over my team. I want them helping our RPI and finishing at the bottom.

But, as a Bona guy, I hope the Big East remains to stupid to realize this.


Hear, hear

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Feb 04, 2014 10:54 pm 
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JPSchmack wrote:
Fresno St. Alum wrote:
Like TK said Dayton and Cincy are different makets just like Balt and DC. So why argue for a suckier school close to another market vs a good school close to another market.

Where do you think the 12 "left behind" schools in the A-10 will upgrade to after the BE takes 2. I already showed you the next best behind the A-10 and their 8 schools w/ ncaa tourneys the last 5 years vs the MVCs 4. Plus the A10 markets are far better than the MVC. Only UMass if given an ultimatum would have to move.


One thing I do want to (repeatedly) point out about Dayton regarding the market thing:

Markets are a measure of population based on census bureau formula. Not any kind of indication of actual fan base.

Because Kentucky is on the other side of the river, suburban growth in Cincy has been mostly north. Cincy's DMA has included Middletown for a long time because they reached it first. (Think of Dallas-Ft. Worth, and where DFW is, that's Middletown. Actually, if Congress hadn't haphazardly approved a new airport in northern Kentucky at the start of WWII, Cincinnati-Dayton would be one big market like that).

But the idea that Middletown is somehow more Xavier basketball territory than Dayton basketball territory is categorically insane.

Considering Cincinnati-Dayton as one metro area, you have the #19 market in the country. Now, you don't "need" both teams to have a presence in the market of 2.929 million people. But if you have both teams, you DELIVER the market.

There's Cincy, Xavier, Dayton, Kentucky and Ohio State fans in the market. No one team is bringing you the majority, but UD/Xavier gives you a plurality… and two pretty good rivalry games for TV.

Plus, Dayton's gonna watch all the other conference teams play, their CBB ratings are spectacular.


And that's to say nothing of the fact that Dayton wins OOC and loses in conference. Which is really what I'd want out of a new member. I don't want a new team coming in and getting to the dance over my team. I want them helping our RPI and finishing at the bottom.

But, as a Bona guy, I hope the Big East remains to stupid to realize this.



Excellent points. Very well written. 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:40 pm 
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Rumors of the A-10 demise have been grossly exaggerated.


Atlantic 10 - 6 NCAA bids.
Big East - 4 NCAA bids (barely).

I had a victory cigar last night, both for my conference's success and my arrogance at being right for the last calendar year.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:56 am 
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JPSchmack wrote:
Rumors of the A-10 demise have been grossly exaggerated.


Atlantic 10 - 6 NCAA bids.
Big East - 4 NCAA bids (barely).

I had a victory cigar last night, both for my conference's success and my arrogance at being right for the last calendar year.


I posted on the BE thread, the day they said they're staying at 10, about I wonder how many years of A10 getting more bids than them would it take for them to take SLU +1. I think TK or someone said over/under 5 years.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:26 am 
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Fresno St. Alum wrote:
JPSchmack wrote:
Rumors of the A-10 demise have been grossly exaggerated.


Atlantic 10 - 6 NCAA bids.
Big East - 4 NCAA bids (barely).

I had a victory cigar last night, both for my conference's success and my arrogance at being right for the last calendar year.


I posted on the BE thread, the day they said they're staying at 10, about I wonder how many years of A10 getting more bids than them would it take for them to take SLU +1. I think TK or someone said over/under 5 years.


I have to wonder if there's some gridlock and resistance over the choices "most" available. The best hoops program in Richmond isn't UR. SLU is inconsistent. But those remain the most likely within reason.

I think the A10 makes a move or takes a hit before the Big East moves again, but who knows? The way it sounds, the Big East is still a bit of a mess after the split. I don't know how long it takes for a conference to "find itself."


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:50 am 
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Agree that Big East will want to get it right with the next expansion.

And the problem is that for most schools, success comes in spurts.

Players move on, Highly successful coaches get lucrative offers to go elsewhere.

That ESPN 30 for 30 on "Requiem for the Big East" was terrific.
And when you look at the factors that let the Big East be so dominant for a while,
those factors don't exist anymore.
They (almost by accident) had an incredible collection of coaches,
and the recruiting was boosted by the incredible preponderance of televised Big East games on ESPN and elsewhere.

Now the Big East has to compete on a more level playing field.

When the A-10 re-stocked after losing Xavier and Butler to the Big East, I think they went back to 14,
in anticipation of losing 2 (Likely SLU and Dayton / Richmond / VCU) in the not too distant future.

Some of those schools owe their success to coaches like Shaka Smart and the late Rick Majerus.
SLU is all seniors. Can they sustain their recent success ? Dunno.
Will Smart go elsewhere for more money ? Dunno. VCU's ability to pay him may depend upon their conferences's TV contract...


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:00 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
When the A-10 re-stocked after losing Xavier and Butler to the Big East, I think they went back to 14,
in anticipation of losing 2 (Likely SLU and Dayton / Richmond / VCU) in the not too distant future.


Keep in mind that after losing 4 of 16 (specifically Butler and Xavier to the new Big East, Temple to the old Big East (now the AAC), and UNC-Charlotte re-joining C-USA), they'll be back to 14 with Davidson from the SoCon in 2014-15. For now, they gained a new member in George Mason from the CAA to start off this season. Maybe the A-10 would eventually solidify to 12, with jut losing 2 key members to the new Big East. My picks would be the following combos of the 4 possible candidates:

St. Louis/Dayton; Dayton/Richmond or St. Louis/VCU (the most logical and realistic in terms of recent-yearly success within the A-10 in past few years).

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:07 am 
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I think having a big conference under one line is doing good things for those who choose it. While you may not always get return games against certain programs, that splits both ways. And in a conference where there is some sort of "common vision," it does go to propel the field.

Depending which schools drop off from the A10, if and when that happens, staying at 12 will not result in 5-6 bids. 2-3 would more likely. But, growth for the sake of growth wouldn't necessarily improve that outcome. Basketball conferences need basketball schools, and not just schools with similar enrollment profiles. It's something I think A10 does better than the Big East, but that could always change.


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:14 pm 
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#1 - It remains to be seen if UD's run to the Elite 8 impacts the Big East's decision making process. One assumes that the performance of the Big East in this NCAA Tournament (4 bids, 3 in R64, 0 Sweet 16 teams) vs the performance of Saint Louis and Dayton (4-1, R32, Elite 8) would make them revisit a prompt expansion.

#2 - UMass turned down the MAC's all-sports invite, so the A-10 remains strong there.

#3 - The A-10 also has the windfall of the the 22 units that Xavier, Temple and Butler earned the league and left behind.
Instead of 25% of that money (5.5 units worth) being divided among the 13 schools evenly (0.423 units each);
It's 100% of that money (22 units) being divided among the 13 schools (1.7 units each), PLUS what each member earned (and that's another 10 units this season).

THIS SEASON, the A-10 schools are getting PAID TOO thanks to the new Big East.

#4 - My big concern is still the 18-game A-10 schedule that's coming next year. I think it's foolhardy. I know the A-10 has trouble finding games the first weekend of January because so many other conferences are at 18 games, but the AmEast, Ivy, Big South, Horizon, NEC, and OVC were at 16 games this season; so how hard can it really be to find those games?

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:42 pm 
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JPSchmack wrote:
#4 - My big concern is still the 18-game A-10 schedule that's coming next year. I think it's foolhardy. I know the A-10 has trouble finding games the first weekend of January because so many other conferences are at 18 games, but the AmEast, Ivy, Big South, Horizon, NEC, and OVC were at 16 games this season; so how hard can it really be to find those games?


Would you want games against AE, Ivy, Big South, Horizon, NEC, and OVC filling in those games? Those don't help the RPI and SOS numbers for the A10 when you already have a lot of the major conferences dodging certain programs from it.

I think going to 18, which is sort of ambitious for this conference, could help the conference in potentially getting more content. Like, would that enable a better chance of VCU and SLU seeing each other twice? Can it help the regional aspect of the conference, like a better chance of GWU, GMU, UR, and VCU playing each other more often?

Quote:
#2 - UMass turned down the MAC's all-sports invite, so the A-10 remains strong there.


HUGE to see a big school protect its hoops like that. It makes me wonder what Charlotte's thinking...


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 7:09 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
JPSchmack wrote:
#4 - My big concern is still the 18-game A-10 schedule that's coming next year. I think it's foolhardy. I know the A-10 has trouble finding games the first weekend of January because so many other conferences are at 18 games, but the AmEast, Ivy, Big South, Horizon, NEC, and OVC were at 16 games this season; so how hard can it really be to find those games?


Would you want games against AE, Ivy, Big South, Horizon, NEC, and OVC filling in those games? Those don't help the RPI and SOS numbers for the A10 when you already have a lot of the major conferences dodging certain programs from it.

I think going to 18, which is sort of ambitious for this conference, could help the conference in potentially getting more content. Like, would that enable a better chance of VCU and SLU seeing each other twice? Can it help the regional aspect of the conference, like a better chance of GWU, GMU, UR, and VCU playing each other more often?


The SOS of one OOC opponent is basically meaningless compared to the value of OOC wins for your conference; which improves the SOS of your conference opponents 16 times.

Let's say all the A-10 teams are equal:
18 conference games = 9-9 A10, 9-3 OOC (vs .500 OOC SOS), 18-12 total on your SOS, 18 times = .5600 SOS
16 conference games = 8-8 A10, 11-3 OOC (vs .500 OOC SOS), 19-11 total on your SOS, 16 times = .5711 SOS

The A-10 has an unbalanced schedule. GW-GMU, UR-VCU are playing twice already anyway.

Yeah, with 18 games, you get two more marquee matchups, like Umass vs VCU.
But the only reason UMass, VCU, SLU, and UD would be marquee match-ups is because they win OOC games.

Take away 8-0 OOC and add 4-4 against each other, and Dayton might not get into the NCAA Tournament.

THAT is what happened to the Big East this season. Teams 3-8 beat the crap out of each other.

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:45 am 
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With the run Dayton had before losing eventually to Florida, will the Flyers be considered in terms of "being on the conversation as an expansion candidate" towards the new Big East? If so, which other school will accompany?

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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 3:12 pm 
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JPSchmack wrote:
The Bishin Cutter wrote:
JPSchmack wrote:
#4 - My big concern is still the 18-game A-10 schedule that's coming next year. I think it's foolhardy. I know the A-10 has trouble finding games the first weekend of January because so many other conferences are at 18 games, but the AmEast, Ivy, Big South, Horizon, NEC, and OVC were at 16 games this season; so how hard can it really be to find those games?


Would you want games against AE, Ivy, Big South, Horizon, NEC, and OVC filling in those games? Those don't help the RPI and SOS numbers for the A10 when you already have a lot of the major conferences dodging certain programs from it.

I think going to 18, which is sort of ambitious for this conference, could help the conference in potentially getting more content. Like, would that enable a better chance of VCU and SLU seeing each other twice? Can it help the regional aspect of the conference, like a better chance of GWU, GMU, UR, and VCU playing each other more often?


The SOS of one OOC opponent is basically meaningless compared to the value of OOC wins for your conference; which improves the SOS of your conference opponents 16 times.

Let's say all the A-10 teams are equal:
18 conference games = 9-9 A10, 9-3 OOC (vs .500 OOC SOS), 18-12 total on your SOS, 18 times = .5600 SOS
16 conference games = 8-8 A10, 11-3 OOC (vs .500 OOC SOS), 19-11 total on your SOS, 16 times = .5711 SOS

The A-10 has an unbalanced schedule. GW-GMU, UR-VCU are playing twice already anyway.

Yeah, with 18 games, you get two more marquee matchups, like Umass vs VCU.
But the only reason UMass, VCU, SLU, and UD would be marquee match-ups is because they win OOC games.

Take away 8-0 OOC and add 4-4 against each other, and Dayton might not get into the NCAA Tournament.

THAT is what happened to the Big East this season. Teams 3-8 beat the crap out of each other.


I don't want to disagree with this, but it's not like 3-7 were so terribly removed from tournament consideration, and if/when they got that way, it was because of too many questionable losses to 8-10, not 1-7. The tournament's about good wins and minimal bad losses...the kind of parity that goes on in the Big East is seen across the country, but good teams are held to the same standards as others, and, as you even showed statistically in the Big East thread, the top of the A10 did get it done in their conference while not necessarily doing it in the non-conference compared to the Big East.

There's definitely a chance for an expanded conference schedule for schools to wail on each other and destroy their numbers, but that's true of any conference.


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 Post subject: Re: A10 Realignment
PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:24 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
I don't want to disagree with this, but it's not like 3-7 were so terribly removed from tournament consideration


I think that illustrates my point:

Georgetown had three marquee OOC wins, but were 17-14. At 19-12, they're probably dancing.
St. John's & Marquette were probably at 3 losses too many to dance.

The Bishin Cutter wrote:
and if/when they got that way, it was because of too many questionable losses to 8-10, not 1-7.


But they had zero games against Big East #11 and #12, because those teams didn't exist.

The Bishin Cutter wrote:
The tournament's about good wins and minimal bad losses...the kind of parity that goes on in the Big East is seen across the country, but good teams are held to the same standards as others, and, as you even showed statistically in the Big East thread, the top of the A10 did get it done in their conference while not necessarily doing it in the non-conference compared to the Big East.

There's definitely a chance for an expanded conference schedule for schools to wail on each other and destroy their numbers, but that's true of any conference.


In the A-10, Dayton lost to URI; SLU lost to Duquesne, UMass lost to George Mason.

This is the difference between the balanced 18-game schedule, and unbalanced 16 game schedule.
If the A-10 had 10 teams, Dayton would have to play UMass, VCU, GW, Richmond and St. Bona again. They'd probably go 2-3 or 3-2. In real life, they went 3-0 against #13 GMU, #12 Fordham, #11 DUQ had two more OOC games (2-0).

It's not a stretch at all to say conference administration is what got Dayton in, and kept Georgetown out.

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