Though we'll know more by June 30th, I'm not so sure that the MWC is going add any additional members. If I was them I would, specifically Fresno State, Boise State, and UTEP.

If the WAC does begin searching for members, I believe that NDSU would definitely be interested. It would be even more $$$, but certainty is better than limbo at higher price in some circumstances.

I'd rather not see the Bison go DIA. We'd probably see an occasional bowl game, but the costs would be tough. But we're in a heck of a spot right now.

As far as Big Sky schools, I don't know who would move. There is only one school that jumps out and that is Montana and I don't know why they'd run such a good thing (ie being a money maker and ending their football tradition).

Davis and Poly would also be on the list to join the WAC, and this appears to be the former's long term goal. I don't know if now would be the best time for either of them and I think that they could easily approach the WAC later for membership.


Of course, this is all subjective and it doesn't account for the movement of NCC schools.

The MWC raid could happen before June 30, 2006, OR, happen another 4 years into the future, when another BCS evaluation takes place. By that time, it may be more than Montana that theoretically could be interested in moving up to be in the WAC.

I don't think the WAC would be interested in NDSU. Not only is market an issue, so is location. They already did the Southern Plains thing, and right now, are in the more core south with La Tech. They wouldn't want to go east of the Continental Divide again, unless it was a merger with western CUSA schools.

Then there is the BE potential split. There are a lot of potentials with the future college conference landscape. There will be a time when current conferences on the lower end within their respective regions will need teams to survive. If more NCC schools move up, they along with NDSU and SDSU will be pontential teams that will fill this need for these conferences and be possible conference mates with NDSU and SDSU.

I think the MWC will take Nevada over El Paso for their bball program. Facilities are about the same. UTEP also has no baseball.

El Paso may have a higher population, but most of them are poor hispanics who don't follow football or basketball, only soccer.

Nevada has the gambling and it's a resort town. The type of town that fans want to travel to.

Etc.



To the MWC:

Fresno (WAC)
Boise (WAC)
Nevada (WAC)

To the WAC:

Montana (Big Sky)
Sac State (Big Sky)
Poly (DIaa Indep)

To the Big Sky:

North Dakota St. (DIaa Indep)
South Dakota St. (DIaa Indep)

Nevada did slightly better than UTEP this year, as far as record and performance. They also shared a WAC title, won a bowl and UTEP didn't win a title, didn't even go to the CUSA title game and they lost their bowl. However, UTEP's attendance is bigger than Nevada's, with Nevada barely staying above 15K and UTEP hovering at 50K.




Soccer may be popular in the Hispanic world, but UTEP has one of the highest followings among non-BCS teams. Their average this past year was hovering around 50K. That is definately an advantage and doesn't reflect what you just stated here.

Side note: The movie, "Glory Road" sounds like a great movie that is coming out. Its about Texas Western, now known as UTEP, winning the 1966 National Championship beating Kentucky. The first national championship won by an all African American starting players.




True, but the Sun Bowl does do fairly well in attendance.






If UND and other NCC schools move up, add UND and those schools as well going to the Big Sky with NDSU and SDSU. I would also add Montana State to the WAC, especially if its 4 years down the road (see Pounder's posts).

As far as the Mid Con, you could see UMKC, Valpo, IUPUI, and Oakland all going to the Horizon, after Butler, Detroit Mercy, UW-Milw, and Loyola (and/or UIC) all moving up to A-10 and/or BE split off league. Centenary and maybe ORU could end up in a southern-based league due to the whittling down of CUSA and Sun Belt and ownward domino effects of BE split and/or MWC raids. Southland is a possibility and Atlantic Sun are possibilities. WIU could also end up in the MVC or SLU in the MVC. There could be up to 6 to 7 vacancies in the Mid Con, with only Chicago State, SUU and WIU (maybe) remaining. Any and all NCC teams that move up along with NDSU, SDSU, UVSC, IPFW could fill this void to help this conference survive.

You're right about UTEP.

But why would UTEP move from the CUSA to the MWC, a lateral move?

With Utah in 2004 (Top 5 team and undefeated) and TCU in 2005 (Top 10 team and undefeated), one can argue that there is a greater likelihood of the MWC becoming a BCS autobid conference than CUSA. Not sure CUSA could count Louisville in 2004 if they are being counted for the Big East, and this year, CUSA's best team is Tulsa (9-4), with UTEP (8-4), UCF (8-5), USM (7-5), Memphis (7-5), Houston (6-6). The MWC most likely has a better chance for the BCS autobid than CUSA, and that would be the reason for expanding -- to find teams that would help out their BCS autobid chances. That would also be the reason why UTEP or any other team would go to the MWC and leave CUSA if they felt there was a better chance of being in a BCS conference. This is the same reason why TCU left CUSA for the MWC -- perceived better BCS autobid chances in the MWC over CUSA. If this raid of the WAC (or CUSA) by the MWC does not happen in the next year or two, than it could happen during the next BCS autobid evaluation process 4 years from now. A MWC raid is always eminanting in the future, due to trying for a better BCS standing through expansion.

I don't think C-USA to MWC is a lateral move.

However, in this case, UTEP probably believes they're better served in C-USA.

1. Previous repudiation by MWC schools.

2. Playing in a conference division with mostly Texas schools provides far more football recruiting opportunities than Fresno and San Jose does.

I wouldn't count on any tectonic shifts in major conferences for a while, especially out west. The WAC might be looking for one or two schools. I really do think the MWC is thinking one addition only. The Pac still has no motivation to steal from the MWC.

A move to the WAC and DI-A football for NDSU would be great. I sure wouldnt expect it unless the WAC was desperate. One or more BSC schools moving on making room for all the old NCC schools is far more likely.

A little more on the NDSU conference associations:

Football: GWFC
Soccer: United Soccer Conference We will be admitted in 2006 when transition is complete.
Basketball: United BB Conference
Wrestling: WRESTLING (Greely Tribune, May 18, 2005): The formation of a new conference is past the preliminary stage as head coach Jack Maughan initiated talks with teams from North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Utah Valley State, Air Force, Wyoming, Northern Iowa, Fresno State (Calif.) and Eastern Illinois.
 
Possible names for the conference include the Great West Wrestling Conference and the Western Intercollegiate Wrestling Conference.

havent heard a thing about it since, but it may be waiting until 2006 when probation is over?

Golf: Independent
Track/field: Independent
Baseball/Softball: Independent

Seems like the common thread is 2006 when the transition ends? I think if I were an exisiting conference that was interested I would hold back too. I would make up my mind but wait to see if anything better comes along? The BSC might be doing a lot of that. I agree with you guys about the probability of the domino effect.

True, but if they would know that they would be in a BCS autobid conference, if they were offered a membership in such a conference, I believe they would take that offer.

If both domino effects take place, that is both BE and MWC, and taken to their maximums (split off bball BE league and BE football league-8 take 4 more, and MWC takes 3), then the WAC may merge with some of the remnant CUSA teams. Then again, the WAC could also dissappear from the face of the earth, where Fresno, Boise, Nevada (or UTEP) leave the WAC, San Jose State either eliminates football or drops to I-AA, Hawaii goes independent, and La Tech ends up in the CUSA, along with NMSU, leaving only Utah State and Idaho and maybe San Jose State. These two or three remnant WAC teams all collectively could move down and join the Big Sky Conference.




What do you mean? Could you please explain? The Big Sky and NCC would merge?




Thanks for the list of the other sports conferences. Interesting information.

I guess in a way the BSC and NCC might merge. If Montana, Sacramento State and Poly go they would need 3 old NCC teams. Im not sure any other NCC teams will move up unless something like that is a certainty. Theres the old domino affect again.

Oh yea, on the WAC, I would hope for a chance for the BISON.

If NDSU and/or SDSU move up to I-A, the Big XII would be their only real option. For that to happen, the Big XII would probably have to cough up Missouri to the Big 10 and either Baylor or Colorado. If Nebraska flies to the Big 10, then NDSU and SDSU would really have problems in Division I-A.

Tom Osborne, former coach of Nebraska, once discussed the Iowa State job with former Iowa State coach Jim Walden (who preceded current coach Dan MaCarney). Jim Walden was a former assistant at Nebraska and coached under Coach Osborne. Anyway, Jim Walden asked Coach Osborne on advice about whether or not he should take the Iowa State job. Coach Osborne mentioned all the pluses and minuses. The minuses included the stiff competition for recruits in the region, and the lack thereof. North and South Dakota are not havens for recruiting. The only football player to ever go to Nebraska from North Dakota (Jamestown, home of the World's Largest Buffalo Statue) is Darin Erstad, who now plays for the Los Angeles Angels? He was a baseball player on Nebraska's team and was a kicker on the football team. South Dakota has a few more players. John Dutton comes to mind who played for the Huskers and then eventually for the Dallas Cowboys. I'm sure there are a few others that made it into the pros from Dakota schools, and there's Josh Heupel from South Dakota who played for the 1999-2000 Oklahoma Sooners. But for the most part, that part of the country is slim pickens for recruits and to survive they would have to be able to recruit entirely on a national level.

The Sun Belt is the closest any team in the Dakotas could get to I-A competition levels, as a comparison, and the Sun Belt is not much above I-AA, if at all.

As far as replacement teams for the Big XII, the following are the most likely candidates for consideration:

Arkansas
TCU
Colorado State
BYU
Utah
New Mexico
Air Force
Wyoming

Even these schools are more possible than the Dakotas, not that they are even possible:

Tulsa
UTEP
Houston
Rice
Tulane
La Tech
New Mexico State
SMU
UNT
Arkansas State
ULL
ULM
Utah State
etc.

Hokay . . . I'd promised myself I'd try to stay out of this thread, as it's gotten way, way too silly. But watching Metro and the North Dakotans go back and forth is a little like an open can of Pringles: I can't keep myself away.

To the point of major college/NFL talent coming out of South Dakota:

You might recall a couple of years back when Oklahoma won the national championship? The starting quarterback was from Aberdeen, S.D: Josh Heupel.

Rapid City, S.D. sent a player to SDSU whose right foot has won two Super Bowls: Adam Vinateri.

Last season SDSU had three players in the NFL: Adam Timmerman (who was starting guard on two Super Bowl winners, and just retired), Vinateri, and Cleveland TE Steve Heiden. There are several I-A programs that have three or fewer players in the NFL (Ball State, Bowling Green, Connecticut, South Florida, Western Michigan, from spot-checking the rosters). (SDSU's in-state peer USD has five players in the NFL this year, by the way).

Saying that the Dakotas a) have a small population and b) are not football factories like Nebraska is not exactly an Earth-shattering revelation.

(I must say I was amused by some of the population projections for Fargo upthread, however).

I'll try to go back to lurking, unless you open up another can of Pringles . . .

(Oh, PS, that post upthread about the Big XII being any kind of option for the Dakota schools was . . . um . . . well . . . ;D ;D ;D

I mentioned him. Check above.




That may change for UConn and USF, as they are now in the BE (note: I am not sounding like TS2)




That sounds like a good reason why SDSU and USD should be in the same conference, if they ever move up.




Yeah, I noticed some very far-fetched projections by NDSUers about Fargo-Moorhead on www.bisonville.com recently.