Since Star2City or any other poster who posts about NDSU or SDSU hasn't announced it yet, I thought I would:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=2494970

Apparrently, U South Dakota is also now beginning to study its conference options, which could include the D I issue as well:

http://www.usdcoyotes.com/sports/news/release.asp?release_id=3223

Who will be the next NCC school to move up? Place your bets. SCSU? USD? MSU-Mankato? UNO? UMD?

I'd say MSU-Mankato is the most likely, simply because I don't think Minnesota can keep only one Division I school forever.

The real question should be will both the Northern Sun and NCC survive? The Dakota schools in the NCC would probably be better served in the Northern Sun:

West - Augustana, Northern State, South Dakota, University of Mary, Wayne State, Upper Iowa
East - Bemidji State, Concordia-St. Paul, UM-Crookston, MSU-Moorhead, SW Minnesota State, Winona State

Assuming the Northern Sun doesn't go beyond 12, Nebraska-Omaha could move to either the Mid-America Intercollegiate or the Rocky Mountain. The remainder of the North Central (St. Cloud State, MSU-Mankato, UMD) could join the Mid-America Intercollegiate, or one of the Great Lakes Conferences.

The alternative is that the NCC acts like the Big East after it got raided by the ACC and grabs three to six schools from other conferences such as the Heartland, Rocky Mountain, Northern Sun, or the two Great Lakes conferences.

MSU-Mankato has yet to announce any study or discussion of moving up to D I, but I suppose it is possible.

Saint Cloud State and now the University of South Dakota are the only two others discussing it, at least on some level, or are about to discuss it.

St. Cloud State's immediate market is slightly better than MSU-Mankato's. USD's market is also fairly decent in comparison of the remaining NCC schools. I believe USD's attendance is about the best of all of the remaining NCC members, IIRC. All three, USD, SCSU and MSU-M all probably have a decent enough market to consider moving up. The problem is money.

Here is what I have heard from the NCC posters. South Dakota is the most likely. They cant really be the odd ball out of the Dakota schools. St. Cloud State is the swing, if they go D1 then so will Minnesota State. UNO would like to end up in the MIAA.

I look for South Dakota, St. Cloud State and Minnesota State all to go D1.
Here is the major reasons:
1) All of their peer instiutions have made the jump (NDSU, SDSU, UNC, UND)
2) NSIC only has a 24 scholarship limit on fb while the NCC has 36
3) Alumni issues like how come the USD is in a conference with Northern State or U-Mary.

Now for the D2 side of things. NCC will more than likely fold. Sorry to see such a great conference go. NSIC will take Minnesota-Duluth and Augustana.

Split into two divisions:
West - Augustana, Mary, Minnesota-Moorhead, Northern State, Southwest Minnesota, Wayne State
East - Bemidji State, Concordia-St. Paul, Minnesota-Crookston, Minnesota-Duluth, Upper Iowa, Winona State

Its been rumored a MIAA member (Truman State or Southwest Baptist) is headed to the Great Lakes Valley Conference with Lincoln. Great Lakes Valley is in the process of getting football as a sport with members right now UMR, Kentucky Weslyen, Indianapolis, St. Joseph's sponsoring the sport at the D2 level and Qunicy at NAIA. Also Lewis is going to start a football team, with them and the two new expansion members would form an 8 team football league or half the league. The Big East of D2. :)

For the MIAA they would add UNO to replace the departed member. That could be an even stronger conference than it already is, scary thought.
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Also it there is the possibility that the NCC schools stick around and add Winona State and Concordia St Paul from the NSIC or Michigan Tech and Northern Michigan.

So the Mid-Con is now at 7 (having lost Chi State and Valpo), conf. meeting next Tuesday in Chicago.

They have requested info from IPFW, NDSU, SDSU.

I see them adding all 3 to go to 10, and perhaps several years down the road NDU and SDU could be #11 and #12. Their FB would get the Great West to at least 6 and a qualifying bid.

If the Great West (supported by the Mid-Con) became the Mid-Con league, that might force Western Illinois (who plays FB in the Gateway) to join (and they may not wish to). I think an NCAA rule says that if your home conference sponsors DIRECTLY a sport in the division that you play, you MUST play that sport in your home league. So that may prevent the Mid-Con (in deference to WIU) from "taking over" the GWFB League.

What does anyone else hear about expectations for the Mid-Con meeting on 6/27 ? Conference jumps must be submitted to the NCAA before 7/1 or they don't take effect for another year, so the date of this meeting is NOT coincidence...

One day the league could look like:

IUPUI, IPFW, Oakland, WIU
NDSU, NDU, SDSU, SDU
UMKC, Oral Roberts, Centenary, Southern Utah

Centenary geographically belongs elsewhere (southland rejected them recently, partly due to lack of football)
Southern Utah is a long haul, maybe they'll join the Big Sky some day...





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Actually, the relationship between the Mid Con and the Great West Football Conference is already established. Commissioner Douple, who is commissioner of both the Mid Con and the GWFC indicated that the relationship is planned to get stronger recently. Not sure what rule you are talking about, but for some reason, apparently, the Mid Con and GWFC have a relationship established that has been set up that has been able to bypass this rule. I agree with you on UND and other NCC move ups in the future could be eventual Mid Con members. UND may be a member of the GWFC sooner, as they need members pronto.

Most leagues have a rule similar to what tute79 describes; generally if four-six in one conference sponsor a sport, the conference requires its members to play that sport in the conference. A recent example is Evansville joining the Sun Belt for Men's Swimming and Diving, since the Missouri Valley requires five schools for the conference to sponsor a championship in a particular sport.

Valpo's jump to the Horizon isn't effective 7/1/2007, so technically the Mid-Con does have a year. I'd expect NDSU and SDSU to be in by then for sure.

That may be, but I don't see the Mid-Con kicking out Western Illinois because they don't join the Great West Football Conference. They need WIU no matter which conference they play football. If the GWFC and Mid Con couldn't establish a relationship, they wouldn't have formed the relationship in the first place, which already exists.

Actually, the Mid-Con would probably be more concerned with WIU leaving for the Missouri Valley, should the Gateway Football Conference get absorbed into the MVC. The MVC doesn't need to do that at this point, but it's always a possibility (i.e. if Southern Illinois moves up to I-A).

Also, would the two California schools be willing to play football in the Mid-Con if they took over the Great West, or would they seek affiliate membership in the Big Sky? WIU only warps the footprint further, and having three or four schools in the Dakotas doesn't help them much either.

The MVC already has a relationship with the Gateway Conference. Just go to the MVC website and look at the left nav button "Sports" and you will see "Gateway Football"

http://www.mvc-sports.com/

The MVC wouldn't need to have WIU as an all sports member to survive. They could keep them as a Gateway member, and that's it. WIU isn't going anywhere. They don't really fit the mold of the Horizon. They're rural. The Gateway is from a strategic perspective the best conference for WIU in the region for football, for competiveness and for travel costs. They are not that competitive for basketball and their market is not ideal -- rural isolated west central Illinois, 70 miles from Peoria, which is saturated with Bradley, plus Illinois State and Illinois are nearby, the MVC has that market saturated already, and 70 miles from the Quad Cities. Macomb is not on an interstate and is only 19,000 people. Southern Illinois on the other hand, though distant from St. Louis, the IL-side of the St. Louis market they claim more and is not as saturated as the Central Illinois markets of Peoria, Bloomington, Springfield with not only statewide U of Illinois, but Illinois State and Bradley. WIU advantage is to stay in the Gateway, but MVC would not see an advantage for WIU as a expansion candidate for all sports for competitiveness, and market reasons. The Gateway-Mid Con arrangement for them is about as ideal as they can get, and the MVC would look for SLU, Butler, UWM, UIC and possibly UMKC as expansion candidates over WIU.

The two California schools want to stay in the Big West for their other sports. They are not really interested in the Big Sky, which is the only all-sports conference, inc football in their area. Their goal is Big West and football is either an affiliate in the GWFC or indenpendent. They are not going to sacrifice their Big West spots for an all-sports membership in the Big Sky. UC-Davis would only go farther up the chain as an alternative to the Big West: The WAC. The California Schools are going nowhere. They know that they are the two outliers, or actually three with SUU in geography. Adding more schools to keep a conference at 6 or more to be a playoff qualifier, which they currently do not have, only means schools back east. No schools with football are available in their area that are either I-AA or are thinking about moving up. Adding more Dakota schools to the GWFC will not do anything to the perspectives of UC-Davis and Cal Poly. They know where they are, like the Big West, and know they are either independents or will be members of the far-flung GWFC, no matter who is a member west of the Mississippi. They are going nowhere, unless UC-Davis goes I-A and to the WAC.

I always get a laugh when people suggest WIU to the MVC. Other than geography and Gateway membership they dont bring much to the fold. Met it right on the head.

Also SIU would be about the 3rd member of the MVC who could move up to the I-A level. Missouri State and Illinois State have better markets and facilities.

But speaking of MVC and Gateway - sounds like Wichita State might get back in the football game.
http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/sports/14892379.htm

With UND going DI, other North Dakota schools like Minot State, Jamestown, and Dic kinson State will likely jump to DII from NAIA. Minot State has done their studies, and is waiting for the appropriate time. Look for Black Hills State in SD to also move up to DII.

In the end, the NCC and NSIC will still exist, but with massive changes:

NCC
SCSU and MSU-Kato (if they stay)
UNO and UN-Kearney (or to the MIAA together)
MnDuluth + Winona St
Concordia SP + Augustana
Northern St + Mary

NSIC - will shift much more west, Upper Iowa will move out
East Division
SW Mn St + MSU Moorhead
Bemidji + Mn Crookston
Wayne St (Neb) + Sioux Falls (move up from NAIA)
West Division
Black Hills St + Chadron St (move from RMAC)
Minot St + Jamestown
Dic kinson St + Montana-St Billings (move from Heartland)

The MidCon's problem is that it needs "core" DI members: it has to maintain seven core members for its autobid. Because the MidCon is the lowest rung conference in the Midwest and Southwest, it has to plan for future defections. It really needs at least nine core members to have a chance of survival longer-term. The only DI core members shopping for a conference are IPFW, UTPA, and Denver. No way would Denver move to the MidCon. SDSU and NDSU are not core members for another 10 years, so they don't help the MidCon with its autobid crisis in the short term.

Watch for the MidCon to add both IPFW and UTPA.

As a UND alum, my prediction is that UND, NDSU, and Denver will be accepting invitations to the Big Sky Conference for the 2008-9 season. IMO, UND would not be moving up if there wasn't some type of gentleman's agreement on conference affiliation. With UND's decision possibly destroying the NCC, this was not a decision taken lightly. By making this announcement now, but delaying the actual move for a year, it paves the way for the Big Sky to act this fall. IMO, it is quite possible that UND will not have to experience an independent year where scheduling would be extraordinarily difficult.

If the Big Sky added UND, NDSU, and Denver for 2008-9, travel partners would be set, Denver would add another DI core member to the Big Sky (for protection from future raids by the WAC), NDSU would be in its first year of DI eligibility, and the Big Sky would instantly gain the following rivalries, all of which would be intense:
Denver - NColo
Denver - UND (with two recent DU hockey championships and two recent Frozen Four appearances for UND have made for an intense rivalry)
UND - NDSU
UND - UNC (former NCC rivals)
NDSU - UNC (former NCC rivals)
Mont St - NDSU
Mont St - UND
Mont - UND
Mont St - NDSU

I also believe one or both of Montana and Montana State are toying with the idea of adding hockey (rather than moving to DIA in football) - After all, the greatest hockey recruiting grounds in the world are just north of the Montana border. Denver and UND would be critical allies for Montana schools in such a venture. Denver is also interested in getting more regional lacrosse rivals. UND has almost perfect facilities for lacrosse, and with our hockey fan base and Canadian/Minnesota recruiting grounds, that sport would make much more sense strategically than baseball or softball.

Other than that whole "Onterio/Quebec" area.