Here is what I have heard from the NCC posters. South Dakota is the most likely. They cant really be the odd ball out of the Dakota schools. St. Cloud State is the swing, if they go D1 then so will Minnesota State. UNO would like to end up in the MIAA.
I look for South Dakota, St. Cloud State and Minnesota State all to go D1.
Here is the major reasons:
1) All of their peer instiutions have made the jump (NDSU, SDSU, UNC, UND)
2) NSIC only has a 24 scholarship limit on fb while the NCC has 36
3) Alumni issues like how come the USD is in a conference with Northern State or U-Mary.
Now for the D2 side of things. NCC will more than likely fold. Sorry to see such a great conference go. NSIC will take Minnesota-Duluth and Augustana.
Split into two divisions:
West - Augustana, Mary, Minnesota-Moorhead, Northern State, Southwest Minnesota, Wayne State
East - Bemidji State, Concordia-St. Paul, Minnesota-Crookston, Minnesota-Duluth, Upper Iowa, Winona State
Its been rumored a MIAA member (Truman State or Southwest Baptist) is headed to the Great Lakes Valley Conference with Lincoln. Great Lakes Valley is in the process of getting football as a sport with members right now UMR, Kentucky Weslyen, Indianapolis, St. Joseph's sponsoring the sport at the D2 level and Qunicy at NAIA. Also Lewis is going to start a football team, with them and the two new expansion members would form an 8 team football league or half the league. The Big East of D2. :)
For the MIAA they would add UNO to replace the departed member. That could be an even stronger conference than it already is, scary thought.
Also it there is the possibility that the NCC schools stick around and add Winona State and Concordia St Paul from the NSIC or Michigan Tech and Northern Michigan.
With UND going DI, other North Dakota schools like Minot State, Jamestown, and Dic kinson State will likely jump to DII from NAIA. Minot State has done their studies, and is waiting for the appropriate time. Look for Black Hills State in SD to also move up to DII.
In the end, the NCC and NSIC will still exist, but with massive changes:
SCSU and MSU-Kato (if they stay)
UNO and UN-Kearney (or to the MIAA together)
MnDuluth + Winona St
Concordia SP + Augustana
Northern St + Mary
NSIC - will shift much more west, Upper Iowa will move out
SW Mn St + MSU Moorhead
Bemidji + Mn Crookston
Wayne St (Neb) + Sioux Falls (move up from NAIA)
Black Hills St + Chadron St (move from RMAC)
Minot St + Jamestown
Dic kinson St + Montana-St Billings (move from Heartland)