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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 8:48 pm 
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JPSchmack wrote:
Quinn wrote:
The WCC has found a nice grove the past decade with Gonzaga being the major power and an NCAA presence virtually all the time. Schools like St. Marys the past few years have been able to step it up as well, and San Diego before them. With BYU in the mix, the WCC might be able to get 3 schools in every year due to the flexibility of OOC scheduling. Adding Seattle or Pacific might take one of those games off the plate.

On the other side though, adding Seattle or Pacific, etc, could force schools like St. Marys and Gonzaga at the top to have to replace a weaker OOC game with another strong one, which would be a benefit. For example, last year Gonzaga played Miss Valley St. which could have been Seattle or Pacific which are upgrades. This year Gonzaga plays Southern, CSU-Bakersfield, and Lewis & Clark St. Any new WCC school like Denver, Seattle or Pacific would be an upgrade.

so it's a push.

And if it's a push, it comes back to revenue: adding another school means splitting the pot another way. So until the media analysts show that adding Seattle TV sets will make more money, the WCC sees no need to expand with them.


Here's my main fundamental disagreement with "Seattle, Denver, Pacific don't get you anything."

First and foremost, from a competitive standpoint, we can throw RPI etc out the window. Your RPI is derived solely from how your conference does OOC.

The reason Gonzaga has to schedule the way they do (like Temple used to) is because the bottom of their conference is weak and doesn't win games. Adding BYU is going to help your RPI as a whole because they bring an average of 10-3 OOC record into WCC play every year.

Pacific is 10-8 vs the WCC in OOC games the last few years. If they join the WCC, they replace those games vs Big West opponents, they are going to bring in a similar OOC record to the WCC SOS every year. Pacific scheduled 14 OOC games last season, and only ONE was a conference below them (Big Sky). Replace their 5-4 vs WCC/WAC teams with 6-2 against BWC teams (against whom they are .750 against) and they are going to bring a 10-4 OOC record into the WCC.

Pacific, BYU, Denver and Seattle, you are basically replacing one game on your schedule vs an RPI killer, with one game against a better team.



All great points. But by "anything", I mean money. The WCC is in the perfect spot now with BYU in. There were no schools available that would increase revenue. And then BYU became available, the lone school that can make the WCC members money that the others never will.

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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 3:26 pm 
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Quinn wrote:
All great points. But by "anything", I mean money. The WCC is in the perfect spot now with BYU in. There were no schools available that would increase revenue. And then BYU became available, the lone school that can make the WCC members money that the others never will.


RPI = NCAA bids; NCAA bids = Money.

Now, I admitted I'm a Pacific STH. So I'm making the argument to show why I want in and not being totally realistic.

The best response back is: "If you go to divisions, you lose a double-round robin between BYU, SMC, Gonzaga and that lowers TV inventory, which lowers $."


But back to the Big West. It's going to be 10 with Hawaii. Not 12 with Hawaii + Bakersfield or Sac State

Same logic as WCC: What does Hawaii give the Big West?
Recruiting (a trip to Hawaii in your career);
TV games in basketball
Really good VB program

What does Bakersfield and Sac State give the Big West? Nothing.

If anything, it complicates matters for reasons stated above (divisions which no one wants because it creates/radically increases the travel inequities). Revenue? Please. This is a conference which offers its home games on the internet for free. They have six schools in the LA metro area, like markets matter.

The only thing that will raise the Big West profile is success and additional TV games. Hawaii brings more ESPN games than they had before. Period. That's all that matters. No one else can bring that.

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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 11:07 am 
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Blurb from Bakersfield paper regarding this week's formal CSUB application for Big West membership at http://www.bakersfield.com/news/sports/ ... -admission


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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Sat Dec 04, 2010 11:12 am 
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Big West MB thread discussing above posted linked article from Bakersfield regarding Big West membership applications at http://bigwest.yuku.com/topic/8959/t/CS ... -West.html


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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Sat Dec 04, 2010 4:35 pm 
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JPSchmack wrote:
Quinn wrote:
All great points. But by "anything", I mean money. The WCC is in the perfect spot now with BYU in. There were no schools available that would increase revenue. And then BYU became available, the lone school that can make the WCC members money that the others never will.


RPI = NCAA bids; NCAA bids = Money.

Now, I admitted I'm a Pacific STH. So I'm making the argument to show why I want in and not being totally realistic.

The best response back is: "If you go to divisions, you lose a double-round robin between BYU, SMC, Gonzaga and that lowers TV inventory, which lowers $."


But back to the Big West. It's going to be 10 with Hawaii. Not 12 with Hawaii + Bakersfield or Sac State

Same logic as WCC: What does Hawaii give the Big West?
Recruiting (a trip to Hawaii in your career);
TV games in basketball
Really good VB program

What does Bakersfield and Sac State give the Big West? Nothing.

If anything, it complicates matters for reasons stated above (divisions which no one wants because it creates/radically increases the travel inequities). Revenue? Please. This is a conference which offers its home games on the internet for free. They have six schools in the LA metro area, like markets matter.

The only thing that will raise the Big West profile is success and additional TV games. Hawaii brings more ESPN games than they had before. Period. That's all that matters. No one else can bring that.


I hear ya on wanting to see them in. But if the center point of the argument is "more teams = potential more bids = more money", then there's not much that can be said. Using that rationale, the WCC would be better off bringing in Seattle and Denver since it would be not just 2 new teams to increase the total number, but much better markets for the WCC.

But the reality is, if the "more bids" point is one of merit, then in theory, the WCC should do nothing else. Do you really think the WCC is a 4 bid conference? Because that is what you're assuming in that argument. They have become a 2 bid conference and now 3 bids with BYU in. Just don't think 4 bids is all that possible based on the quality of the programs we're talking about.



As for the Big West...it's a completely different animal than the WCC. Remember, the WCC is comprised of all private schools. There's little political pressure. The Big West though is almost entirely UC or Cal St. schools. So all the Cal St. schools are under 1 umbrella, UC schools under another. So you've got 2 camps wanting their schools in...and then Hawaii as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 1:54 pm 
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Quinn wrote:
Do you really think the WCC is a 4 bid conference? Because that is what you're assuming in that argument. They have become a 2 bid conference and now 3 bids with BYU in. Just don't think 4 bids is all that possible based on the quality of the programs we're talking about.


Absolutely.

The WCC could get four (hell, five or six in a 12-team format). It's all about how you schedule.

People think NCAA bids have something to do with how good of a team you are. They don't. They are only about OOC scheduling. The biggest problem they'd face is that west coast officiating is awful, so you never know what is going to happen; and there aren't as many teams out west, so picking and choosing to form the perfect schedule is tougher.

Other than that, I think the WCC could get four. It's quite simple: "Anyone who hasn't made the dance in the last five years, you schedule the easiest possible group of OOC opponents; bring some wins into our conference season so when our fourth place team plays you, you're 14-17 instead of 7-24 and killing their RPI."

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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 7:42 pm 
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Article in Long Beach State paper with comments from Big West Commish and others explaining that league's expansion process to include tomorrow's conference council meeting and subsequent teleconference with the Big West BOD.Sounds like there "may" be a possibility of an invite as early as tomorrow.Stay Tuned.Link at http://www.daily49er.com/sports/council ... -1.2423967


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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 6:18 pm 
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Hate to spoil the drama for you, but Hawai'i will be invited and Baskersfield, UC San Diego, everyone else will not be getting invitations.

Hawai'i will then turn to the Mountain West and say "football, we good?" And then hold a pair of press conferences announcing they are MWC for FB and BWC for all others.

Big West expansion takes TWO dissenting votes, and Pacific and UC Davis have zero reason to want Bakersfield and UCSD.

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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 9:45 pm 
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JPSchmack wrote:
Hate to spoil the drama for you, but Hawai'i will be invited and Baskersfield, UC San Diego, everyone else will not be getting invitations.

Hawai'i will then turn to the Mountain West and say "football, we good?" And then hold a pair of press conferences announcing they are MWC for FB and BWC for all others.

Big West expansion takes TWO dissenting votes, and Pacific and UC Davis have zero reason to want Bakersfield and UCSD.

The part of Hawaii getting the only invite may be true but where do you get that UCD voted against UCSD, because of the north south thing? CA doesn't work like that. The UCs are all for one if possible and the CSUs are all for one if possible. UCSB and UCD would likely vote to get their sister school in, more money security for the UC system, same for the CSUs and CSUB. UCs and UOP might be against CSUB and the CSUs and UOP might be against UCSD if they are not invited.

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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 7:37 am 
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Fresno St. Alum wrote:
JPSchmack wrote:
Hate to spoil the drama for you, but Hawai'i will be invited and Baskersfield, UC San Diego, everyone else will not be getting invitations.

Hawai'i will then turn to the Mountain West and say "football, we good?" And then hold a pair of press conferences announcing they are MWC for FB and BWC for all others.

Big West expansion takes TWO dissenting votes, and Pacific and UC Davis have zero reason to want Bakersfield and UCSD.

The part of Hawaii getting the only invite may be true but where do you get that UCD voted against UCSD, because of the north south thing? CA doesn't work like that. The UCs are all for one if possible and the CSUs are all for one if possible. UCSB and UCD would likely vote to get their sister school in, more money security for the UC system, same for the CSUs and CSUB. UCs and UOP might be against CSUB and the CSUs and UOP might be against UCSD if they are not invited.


Right on. Not to mention, the assumption was been that Hawaii might come in right away since they have time sensitive issues...and UCSD & CSUB could always come in later.

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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:56 am 
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I also think Hawaii will get the only invitation at this time.

It seemed like the Big West jumped suddenly when approached by Hawaii, and was other wise in no need of expansion, but to properly admit Hawaii, they had to launch an "expansion process".

So the number 10 will work for now, and UCSD (which hasn't even applied to move up to D-1) and CSUB will be shelved for the time being.


I think there is another thing at play here....
the situations at Sacramento State, but even moreso San Jose State.

The WAC appears to be completely unstable, and is about to get picked over AGAIN by the MWC (Hawaii, certainly, and perhaps Utah State). There is (in my opinion a VERY REAL possibility that the WAC dissolves). If and when this happens, San Jose State is going to be looking for a soft place to land.
Other than the fact that the Big West does not sponsor FBS football, the Big West looks like a nice home for the foreseeable future.

If and when the WAC refugees scatter, this could also affect the Big Sky. Idaho may wind up looking for a place to land. Another unresolved issue with the Big Sky is that North Dakota would seem to prefer membership in the Summit / MVFC, if that invitatin were to ever come about. As teh numbers game in the Big Sky shakes out, it may be mutually beneficial for Sacramento State to move all sports (excepting FB) from the Big Sky to the Big West (similar deal to UCD and Cal-Poly SLO).

What I'm getting at is that the Big West may be reluctuant to "fill up" right now with CSU-B and UCSD, and instead choose to wait and see if SJSU and / or Sacramento State become available.


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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 10:21 am 
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Article out of Long Beach State paper with update on Big West Council expansion discussions at http://www.daily49er.com/sports/no-deci ... -1.2425750


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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 12:19 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
I also think Hawaii will get the only invitation at this time.

It seemed like the Big West jumped suddenly when approached by Hawaii, and was other wise in no need of expansion, but to properly admit Hawaii, they had to launch an "expansion process".

So the number 10 will work for now, and UCSD (which hasn't even applied to move up to D-1) and CSUB will be shelved for the time being.


I think there is another thing at play here....
the situations at Sacramento State, but even moreso San Jose State.

The WAC appears to be completely unstable, and is about to get picked over AGAIN by the MWC (Hawaii, certainly, and perhaps Utah State). There is (in my opinion a VERY REAL possibility that the WAC dissolves). If and when this happens, San Jose State is going to be looking for a soft place to land.
Other than the fact that the Big West does not sponsor FBS football, the Big West looks like a nice home for the foreseeable future.

If and when the WAC refugees scatter, this could also affect the Big Sky. Idaho may wind up looking for a place to land. Another unresolved issue with the Big Sky is that North Dakota would seem to prefer membership in the Summit / MVFC, if that invitatin were to ever come about. As teh numbers game in the Big Sky shakes out, it may be mutually beneficial for Sacramento State to move all sports (excepting FB) from the Big Sky to the Big West (similar deal to UCD and Cal-Poly SLO).

What I'm getting at is that the Big West may be reluctuant to "fill up" right now with CSU-B and UCSD, and instead choose to wait and see if SJSU and / or Sacramento State become available.



Great points. But with the CA politics involved, it's a very different situation than say the WCC that wants to remain with less members. If the CA schools are ever going to be cool with multiple Cal St schools (Sac St and SJSU), then they'll need UCSD in too. At that point, it's 13 schools, so there's little reason to keep CSUB out too. Especially when ultimately, while some are UC and others are CSU...they all get their money from the same place.

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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 12:47 pm 
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Or, at some point, does UOP flee the all UC-CSU Big West and join the privates in WCC? Would the WCC add them as the 10th member?


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 Post subject: Re: Big West realignment
PostPosted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 1:45 pm 
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dbackjon wrote:
Or, at some point, does UOP flee the all UC-CSU Big West and join the privates in WCC? Would the WCC add them as the 10th member?



Good question, Jon. You have to think they want to be in the WCC. I'm sure FSA or someone else here will recall something said public on their part. The problem is would the WCC even want to expand past BYU...and if so, would they want Pacific, Seattle or Denver?

As we've discussed in a few threads, Pacific's biggest problem is the fact that the WCC doesn't seem to want to expand anymore. Right after that point, it's the issues with Denver and Seattle. Looking at the current WCC, there is an argument to be made that Denver and seattle might have more to offer in the new WCC with BYU. Both markets would be fine additions with more Tv viewership now that BYU is in. Pacific doesn't offer what those two schools do in terms of potential market penetration. What they do offer is a nearby school to St. Marys, USF and Santa clara. As it is now though, Pacific is the perfect partner in the big West for UC Davis.


So looking at the success of the WCC with seemingly 2 schools in each year (San Diego/Gonzaga, then Gonzaga/St. Marys) and with BYU likely a 3rd bid, I'd think Pacific would love an invite to the WCC. But would the WCC ever want them? Tough call. They could have brought in a school with BYu but passed.

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