WOW !

You've certainly put some thought into this.
You have a lot more vision than a lot of conference commisioners.

I think the A-10 is in a holding pattern until the Big East makes their move (split ?, expand by stealing teams /, Catholic non-football conferene ? - all possibilities that you have alluded to)...

I think something will happen with the Big East. Right now EVERYONE in the conference (except a few AD's and football coaches who continually note the pain of having only 8 FB members), are avoiding the concept of splitting / expanding like the plague. Everything (for public consumption) is rosy.

Tranghese says he will not have a split during his watch... gee, then he announces his retirement, effective right about the time a split may need to be announced.... coincidnece....
hmmm.... he is in his mid-60s.... then again, he would need to be GONE (to be IMPARTIAL during a split), only to re-surface as the commissioner of the non-football Catholic conference, that includes his alma-mater Providence...) I have no knowledge this will happen, but it just seems so strange that nobody is publicly discussing this option, as though they don't want to create a lame duck, and so maybe it's a done deal....

So the A-10 will get picked apart, perhaps losing Temple or UMass, and the trio of Dayton, Xavier, and St. Louis.

The new A-10 commissioner needs to have contingency plans in place NOW.... the geographic footprint will revert to "Atlantic" with the loss of Dayton, Xavier, and St. Louis. The opportunity to lure replacements exists as the CAA FB league swells.... so a few of the stronger AE / CAA schools might be ripe for the picking. A good commisioner would be extending some "feelers" to gain an understanding of the landscape, and grasp what each school's long-range plan is.

I think some of the target schools named above might be fine expansion candidates.

One could argue that the Atlantic 10 has made various moves in preparation of the Big East one day splitting. If that happens, the Big East basketball 8 will likely consider adding 1 or 2 teams initially to replace lost markets. Xavier probably tops the list since it would replace Cincy and geographically connect Notre Dame, Depaul and Marquette. Schools like St. Louis, Dayton, Charlotte and even Richmond could be targeted as well.

So if the Big East raided the A10 for 1 or 2 teams, the conference would still be at 12 or 13 teams.

_________________


@ncaasports csi.com/facebook


Like the new CSI Userbar? Feel free to use it here and any other forums.
You can save and host it yourself or link from here.

Good work man! I think while you may not be a commissioner, you'd make quite the athletic director. THAT, is how you make up funding shortfalls for the stadium you NEED.

Regarding UCF, I think that if CUSA west breaks away and the A10 takes decisive action, UCF is theirs.

I am still struggling with the ND mind melter that pounder hit me with. If ND BB is worth DePaul and St. John's in Chicago and NY... Way to screw with my first domino there Pounder! (The entire reason I didn't post a thread on the A10 in the first place... The actions of the BE really dictate everything that follows.)

Lets say that the BE schools are not going to risk potentially killing the BE BB conference, so they will leave them at 6. That leave 10 which allows very good scheduling/no split scheduling, which allows USF to be every BE schools's PR run to Florida. (If you expand to 12 you could put UCF and USF into opposing divisions, but it really isn't as good of an option as it creates scheduling decisions that you don't have staying at 10.) What BE schools do they take? I have to say Pounder has swung me on ND. I think that has more resonance with the BCS group anyway. And, NY is the best market anyway, so St. John's. If the BE has the NY market, they really don't have to worry about piecing together other markets.

West Virginia
USF
Rutgers
Louisville
Connecticut
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Norte Dame (non-football)
St. John's (non-football)

If the BE wants they can either add ECU as a football only 9th or Frankly Temple makes a world of sense even though they voted them out. Temple'd probably be content with that relationship long term as they have the A10.

I totally reject that any conference will be stretching to ridiuclous geographic limits unless they are despirate. I don't think the BE football conference would be despirate.

BE BB might take Xavier and Dayton to glue their conference back together and might add Fordham and maybe Fairfeild (CT private in NYC DMA) or even possibly Hofstra (13K enrollment private in Hempstead, NY --- in NYC) to get back into the enormous NY media market.

Marquette
Villanova
DePaul
Georgetown
Providence
Seton Hall
Xavier
Dayton
Fordham
Farifeild/Hofstra

It is stable and has them everywhere they want to be. Again, I don't see despiration there, so no huge geographic reaches for midwestern powers . No St. Louis, Creighton, or Bradley.

So that leaves an A10 of
School Basketball arena Capacity
1) Saint Louis Chaifetz Arena 10,600
2) Temple Liacouras Center 10,206
3) Massachusetts Mullins Center 9,349
4) Charlotte Dale F. Halton Arena 9,105
5) Richmond Robins Center 9,171
6) Rhode Island Ryan Center 7,657
7) Duquesne A. J. Palumbo Center 6,200
8) St. Bonaventure Reilly Center 6,000
9) George Washington Smith Center 5,000
10) Saint Joseph's Alumni Memorial Fieldhouse 4,200
11) La Salle Tom Gola Arena 4,000

Honestly, I suspect the A10 more or less expanded to 14 anticipating losing 4, leaving a stable 10. That could happen in this scenario, or they could end up with 11.

Now that said, how stable is it with members in FBS or toying around in FBS? St. Louis is on an island and I think they could very well bolt. Members 2-6 have very little in common with members 7-11. Even Richmond might have eventual FBS dreams. If members 2-5 decided to break away, it seems likely that St. Louis could go with them. If even if Richmond said, "no thank you" to an eventual BCS push, it is still debateable which group would land St. Louis, if either. I think St. Louis has no problem being a token non-football school in a conference if it is high profile, geographically friendly, and stable. They'd be team 10 to a 9 member football conference with no issues. They could (and probably would) join a breakaway CUSA West leaving either a 5/5 split (FBS possibles/BB schools) or a 4/6 split that leaves the privates in charge of the automatic bid and the publics looking at their options (CAA? NEC? A10? CUSA East?).

Looking at that (11- StL to CUSA West= 10 ) as my starting point, I think an entirely different approach is required. With the privates in the driver's seat, they might be very much inclined to pick up 4 privates and say the heck to the FBS wannabes. I would make the arguement to them that there is money and long term benefit in delaying their departure a few years.

I would broker very favorable terms from the publics after a future schism (future tournaments, 20-30 year favorable scheduling agreements, etc.) in return for the privates letting the publics add who they like to get back up to 14.

Goals:
1) Retain FBS and wannabe FBS teams
2) Establish FBS level "Atlantic" brand name as quickly as possible.
3) Pull in the best academic schools in a reasonable footprint available today at the FBS level.
4) Close the door on competitors in the empty NE region.

You will likely be competing with CUSA East (UTEP, S. Miss, UAB, ECU, Marshall, and UCF) for members. There are enough teams in flux to support 2 new eastern conferences in the East in 2011 with another likely to emerge in 2017.

Ultimately, what can't be lost, is that the goal of every conference is to establish a "brand" that means academic excellence, like the Big 10, Pac 10, and Ivy league. Along those lines schools like Temple and UMASS can either strike first and take the best established and upgrading schools, or lose out the more developed CUSA and likely be part of the batch upgrading in 2017.

Temple (Tier 3 academically, 204M endowment, Philly DMA=2.9M) is FBS, Massachusetts (flagship, Tier 2 academically, 348M endowment, Spingfeild +Boston DMAs= 2.7M) has long wanted to jump to FBS, but can't put together the 40K stadium the BE would require, and Charlotte (Charlotte DMA = 1.085M, 105M endowment) is not only starting FBS football, but they have a relationship with the main predator of the conference --- CUSA East (specifically ECU).

To retain Charlotte (Tier 4 academics, but a flagship), you have to take immediate action with the goal of immediate FBS status. I would stress the fact to Charlotte that this will be a conference of flagships and academic elites who's shared academic reputaion will dwarf CUSA East in short order and will make each member that much more highly respected in academic circles.

I would again invite a trio of tier 2 academic schools from the MAC: Ohio (columbus DMA=905K) , Miami (OH) (cinnci DMA=904K), and Buffalo (semi-flagship, buffalo DMA = 636K)... again in a way respectful to the membership of the MAC. (Those universities have the 3 largest endowments in the MAC at 240M, 320M, and 566M, respectively.)

Then I would meet with USF (tier 3 academically. 48K enrollment 115M endowment Orlando DMA=1.434M and offer them a full membership--- parallelling the BE's toenail philosophy for Florida recruiting. Together I would suggest that we meet with CUSA East an offer a compromise to help them retain their NCAA automatic berth ---- UCF would be a football only member of the A10 and other sports in CUSA East for 6 years... or until the NCAA decides CUSA east satisfies the rules.

This would leave CUSA precarious but intact for a sunbelt raid. In return we would demand a bowl game matchup agreement.

Recouping a full membership slot, I would offer Delaware (tier 2 academics. 1.3975B endowment in Philadelphia Market =2.9M) full A10 membership in return for a promise to jump to FBS with UMASS. Delaware is an FCS power. They are a mid to large public with a 19K enrollment and a state flagship. They average 22K in FCS. They are working on their stadium---possibly expanding it. They help Temple deliver TVs in the Philly DMA.

I'd add Army and Navy as Football only members. They left CUSA over travel and competive reasons. This is a lower competition level, better academic reputation, and a much smaller travel budget, so I think they'd bite on a temporary arrangement, especially if it came with an agreement to give them football scheduling preferences in the future. They both average in the mid to high 30's in attendance and are soundly in the footprint. Adding them to the conferenece not only bumps up the average attendance, it also adds fanatical football fans who will travel to away games. They are seen as academic pluses. Finally they are near NYC and DC --- two areas in which we frankly need help.

I thought at one point to offer ECU a football only membership with a promise/possibility of ALL-sports membership in 6 years, but when I look at what that does to the map, it really forces future growth southwards --- where the athletics are better, but the academics are much worse.

ECU averaged 41K last season, $121 endowment, and has a 26K enrollment. ECU has no market (276K) but along with UCF, they would provide football credibilty that we could use. Unfortunately we just cannot afford it because of where it leaves us and frankly to keep the other CUSA East schools in a viable conference, we really can't do it.

(I see CUSA East adding maybe USA, FAU, and FIU --- good market teams and Florida recruiting --- so they can have flexibility for future growth and don't kill the sunbelt.)

That would give me 14 for an all sports A10 w/good markets and a football only A10 FBS overlay.


FBS Atlantic 10 Conference
1) Temple
2) Charlotte
3) Miami (OH)
4) Ohio
5) Buffalo
6) USF (football only)
7) Army (football only)
8) Navy (football only)
Delaware (upgrading)
Massachusetts (upgrading)
Rhode Island (list them as a possible upgrade, but my take is they will have trouble raising the funds to build a stadium to escape FCS)

non-football/FCS remaining A10
Richmond
Duquesne
St. Bonaventure
George Washington
Saint Joseph's
La Salle

From here the question is which schools yeild the maxium benefit for future expansion and, if they are FCS schools, trying to tie them to the UMASS/Delaware/URI upgrade timeline - say 2017 or so to coincide with FBS schools satisfying the 6/5 rule for a breakaway of the FBS football playing schools as "Atlantic Football Conference".

List for the last 4 potential all sports slots for a 12 team AFC circa 2017 (if that is the goal):

Maine (Tier 3 Academics. small to mid-sized public w/12K enrollment, $230M endowment. Flagship. 10K Alford stadium. Bangor+Portland+Presque DMA =580K TV Households )
New Hampshire (Tier 2 Academics. mid-sized public w/15K enrollment, $116M endowment. Flagship. 7K Cowell stadium. Boston + Portland + Burlington DMAs = 3.1M)
Vermont (Tier 2 Academics. small to mid-sized public w/11K enrollment. $290M endowment. Flagship. Non-Football School. Bulington + very debateably Boston DMA = 328K or 2.7M)
Northeastern (Tier 2 Academics. large private 23K enrollment. $698M endowment. Parson's feild 7K /3.5k ATT. Boston DMA=2.4M)
Boston U (Tier 1 Academics. very large private 30K enrollment, $1.14 B endowment. football failed at BU when it succeeded at BC? Questionable sports support. 9K Nickerson Field likely can't be expanded up to FBS levels. Boston DMA=2.4M)
Rhode Island (Tier 3 Academics. mid to large public w/19K enrollment. $80M endowment. Flagship. Meade Stadium 7K. Providence DMA= 626K)
Stony Brook (tier 2 academics. $110M endowment, large 22K flagship eq. w/small 8k stadium in NYC market = 7.4M)
Hofstra (Tier 3 Academics. large private 13K enrollment with good football in NYC market. $226M endowment. James M. Shuart Stadium 15K/ 4.5k ATT. NYC market = 7.4M)
Marshall (mid-sized public w/16K enrollment, 38K stadium, $60M endowment. Charleston DMA = 476K).
Youngstown St. (former FCS power, small to mid-sized public w/13K enrollment, 20K stadium. Youngstown DMA = 273K).
Drexel (large private 17K enrollment next door to Penn. $640M endowment. non-football, but possibly could play at Penn's Franklin Field 53K less than half a mile away. Insurance for a future temple defection to the BE? Philadelphia DMA=2.9M).
Howard University (tier 2 academics. $532M endowment. Not just an HBCU, "The Black Harvard". large private w/11k enrollment in the Washington DC Market. William H. Greene Stadium could be enlarged to 20-25K fairly easily and that would be sufficient for an FBS school in an NFL killzone. It would just make a lot of sense. DC Market=2.3M.)
George Mason (tier 3 academics. $51M endowment. No football, but apparently "fell one vote short of adding I-AA football in 1998." Robinson Field (cap 5k?) is not ready for FBS. Large 29K public is a great location for FBS football on the opposite side of DC from the redskins. DC Market=2.3M.)
James Madison (medium 16K public expanding Bridgeforth Stadium to 25K by 2011? Seems like another FBS wannabe. $50M endowment. Harrisonburg=89K)
Liberty University (now out of debt private. large private with 11K enrollment. 12K Wiliams stadium. Roanoke/Lynchburg DMA=451K)
Virginia Commonwealth (Tier 3 Academics. large public 30K flagship eq. with 20K publically owned Richmond stadium 1.5 Mi away, but stuck with an entrenched, short-sighted, fanatically anti-football president. $410M endowment. Richmond DMA=526K)
Richmond (small 3K but rich private with a plan to upgrade on campus First Market Stadium to 9K for football. FBS seems out of the question. $1.656B endowment. Richmond DMA=526K)
William & Mary (tier 1 academics. $586M endowment. Small public 8K flagship eq. in Virginia Beach/Norfolk DMA = 700K. 12K Stadium. Very well respected school founded in 1692.)
Old Dominion (tier 3 academics. large public 22K flagship 20K foreman stadium. Virginia Beach/Norfolk DMA = 700K)
Applachian State (current 800 lb gorilla of FCS; mid sized public w/15K enrollment; 17K stadium; $62M endowment. North edge of Charlotte DMA=1.085M).
Georgia St. (tier 4 Academics. $98M endowment. large public w/27K students. 71K pro stadium Georgia Dome 1 mile from campus. Atlanta DMA =2.310M).
Georgia Southern (Most FCS titles all time; mid sized public w/17K enrollment ; 18K stadium. $32M endowment. Savannah(native) + Augusta + Macon + Albany + Jacksonville DMAs = 1.596M).
Jacksonville St. (small public w/9K enrollment; 15K stadium. Birmingham DMA =730K).
UAB (Tier 3 Academics. $400M endowment. mid-sized public 18K enrollment. 71K stadium. Birmingham DMA =730K).
USA (Adding football. $270 endowment. mid-sized public 14K enrollment. Mobile DMA = 517K)
Tennessee St. (HBCU. small to mid-sized public w/12K enrollment. Pro LP field 68K. Nashville DMA=986K)
Memphis (Tier 4 Academics. large public w/21K enrollement. $183M endowment. Liberty Bowl 62K. Memphis DMA=667K)
FAU (Tier 4 Academics. $190M endowment. large public at 26K enrollment. 30K stadium. W. Palm Beach DMA = 775K).
FIU (Tier 4 Academics. $92M endowment. giant public at 40K enrollment. 45K stadium. Miami DMA = 1.536M).

It really becomes very clear that there are enough schools there to form 3 eastern conferences at the FBS level, CUSA East, a NE conference, and another sunbelt level SE conference. The question is do you let the CUSA east cherry pick the east?

I would tend to lean to a smaller footprint, larger endowments, established stadiums, and better academics. I would try to seal off the region (the better academic schools and all those huge TV markets) by nabbing all the better schools in the NE. I would be willing to leave a lot of good FBS candidates for our bowl partner CUSA East.

...still working on it...

Hmm....

Boston U. could share Gillette-Foxboro stadium with the New England Patriots.

Howard, as it's actually in DC could rent RFK Stadium.

UAB and USA have medical and law schools (and USA as the Sea Grant school has a statewide puropse) and large footbal stadiums (Legion Field and the GMAC Bowl, Respectively) but are simply too far west for the footprint.

Apalachain State, Georgia Southern, and James Madison have excelent football and athletically are ready for the next step, but are academic nonentities with no statewide purpose, way out in the boonies. Same thing with Jacksonville State.

ECU has the best football in the state, a law and medical school, and is the state Sea Grant school, and a natural rivalry with Charlotte.

ODU, VCU, and William and Mary are now as joined at the hip as Virginia and Va. Tech. Each has its good points (VCU Basketball, William & Mary's Lacrosse and Field Hockey, and ODU's Track and Field, Sailing and Crew in athletics. VCU's Medical, Law, and Social Work Schools {The oldest in the state}, William & Mary's plastic surgery program (the only public one in the state) and undergraduate academics, and ODU's Marine Biology program {as the state's Sea Grant school} and Broadcasting, Recording, and Film School.) However, I don't think the state of Virginia is big enough population wise to force a package deal, even if all three schools are within middle of the conference footprint.

Richmond is struggling to put people in the stands right now, and at this point would be the only private in the conference.

Georgia State isn't technically a flagship, but as the state's deisginated public affairs university has a statewide purpose. (Not to mention, along with Georgia, Georgia Tech and Medical College of Georgia, exclusive status as a research university) Plus, it has the Georgia Dome which seats more than Bobby Dodd, and is so close it might as well be on campus.

FIU has the larger student body, better undergraduate academics (barely) and vies year in and year out with Georigia Tech, Washington, and MIT for most revenue derived from captive research patents, and has the bigger stadium. FAU has the larger endowment, is the Sea Grant school for the Atlantic Coast region (USF is the Gulf Region Sea Grant) and will be building on the legacy of Howard Schnellenberger. Looks like a toss up.

Excellent detail, Ben. I am going to throw a few more names into the post above before I get it done.