While this conference sounds crazy beyond belief, it could actually be OK.
Cal Davis and Cal Poly are almost certain to only be football members of this, but clearly need the GW to stay around. They need members to keep the other 3 together. S. Utah will likely see this a travel improvement over the summit and will eventually be all in. SD and ND are in, IMO, because NDSU and SDSU are in the MVC and therefore could have a number of options. They could actually even jump to FBS if the MVC goes that way. Add in the fact that the MVC probably don't have slots for UND and USD and it starts to make sense.
None of the Utah and Dakota schools are thrilled with the Summit schools and all the travel there, but it was all that was there for them when the State schools jumped.
I don't think the Dakota schools anticipated MVC invites. The all sports MVC is 10 schools; 4 do not play football. 5 of those 6 (the publics) play in the football MVC with former FCS champ Youngstown State, new powers FCS NDSU and SDSU, and southern illinois's little brother Western Illinios. That is pretty much cherry picking the best of the region.
9 is an optimal number for football scheduling. 12 is decent for BB, but not as good as 10. Assuming the 5 football publics in the MVC intend to keep their non-football basketball powers (Creighton, Wichita St., and Bradley), they are not going to consider adding more than 4 teams all sports members , and frankly to appease their basketball bretheren it likely would only consider 2 to allow the retention Drake and Evansville. Maybe the other two would be NDSU and SDSU. Maybe this is a tryout. Maybe not. But in any instance it likely won't include UND and USD.
Add Drake back into the Football mix. Add 2 all sports members and maybe 1 football only member...
2) Southern Illinois
3) Missouri State
4) Northern Iowa
5) Illinois State
6) Indiana State
7) NDSU? (all sports)
8) SDSU? (all sports)
a willing football only member?
9) W. Illinois. (FB only)
To me this is one of many possibilities. I think it won't happen this way because what you are seeing today is actually what the MVC public prefer. They play who they want --- the best teams in relatively tight footprint --- and get to retain the basketball schools and the non-football rivalries.
I think ultimately NDSU and SDSU will try to force the issue and the MVC publics won't want to give them full membership. One of them would have to win an FCS title to get both of them in, IMO.
If the Publics make a push for FBS though, NDSU and SDSU will be in. My gut feeling is 3-5 of the football MVC publics want to do it, but won't have their act together until maybe 2020, by which time the Dakota schools might be off the board.
So what happens if NDSU and SDSU don't get in as full members? Retreat to the Summit? Keep the status quo? Not likely. To me not joining the GW for other sports reads like keeping your options open in case of a ridiculous change in fortune by the Summit. with travel costs as they are, UND and USD are always going to have slots for NDSU and SDSU, right?
getting back to the great west... It isn't as bad as it looks. People are looking at it as stretching from NJ to CA. That isn't the case. It is two parallel conferences with a 3 team overlay. And it is temporary.
Texas Pan American
Even adding in Chicago St. and Seattle as non-football schools, that isn't really all too much worse than the Summit and in fact might be better athletic programs. And USD, UND, and S. Utah OWN it.
Consider what happens in around 2011 or so.
The southland 4 break away --- possibily with 2 non-football members. The remaining southland schools may very well grab UTPA.
The MVC will probably resist the idea of SDSU and NDSU as full members, so SDSU and NDSU will probably jump back to the GW.
NJ tech will bolt east as soon as a spot opens in a conference with a friendlier conference footprint. With as much shifting as there is out there 2011 seems a likely time. Frankly even the summit has a much more eastward lean than the GW.
Seattle will probably be re-admitted to the WCC by then. Religious ties and all that.
Don't be suprised to see W. Illinois lured away from the summit by NDSU and SDSU for an all sports home.
Frankly, I think Oral Roberts and Denver would be nice snags too. Nebraska-Omaha eventually...
so maybe by 2012
(Nebraska -Omaha by 2018?)
A fairly salty football conference.
(Nebraska -Omaha by 2018?)
Consider the markets in BB. Salt Lake/Utah, Denver, the Dakota Markets, Chicago, Tulsa, Houston. Consider that almost all of the Utah universities are solid in basketball, that Oral Roberts has had good days in BB, that Chicago and Houston are BB hotbeds with no real good BB schools...it could quickly become a mid-major if Chicago State and or Houston Baptist catch a good recruit or two... Frankly all of the schools would have access to Chicago and Houston for recruiting. I have said repeatedly that Denver may only be a big name recruit away from becoming the western version of St. Louis. They are a good academic school. They could retain a guy 2-3 seasons.... There is enough there to make some TV money and cover travel expenses. Like a Western baby CUSA.
The summit could rebuild (possibly even with NJ tech for a while) and call ups from Division 2. Grand Valley State, C. Missouri, and maybe even Missouri- STL to keep Missouri-KC around. GV State and C. Missouri would be OK replacements for the MVC as "football only members". The footprint would be better --- meaning the conference would get better. The summit will have good days, but I think they have to go through their "sunbelt period".
Grand Valley State
IUPU Fort Wayne
Last edited by finiteman on Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:55 am, edited 1 time in total.