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PostPosted: Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:12 am 
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I could see Wichita State WITH FBS FOOTBALL being attractive to the American, should they need to expand in the future.
They'd be sort of a companion school to Tulsa.

i

With regard to the A-10, take a look at their geography.
St. Louis is a really far-flung outlier.
Dayton is also an outlier, but not nearly as bad.

The conference seems to be positioning themselves to be along the Atlantic (no further west than Pittsbusrgh = Duquesne),
in anticipation of St. Louis (for sure) and Dayton (maybe) going elsewhere someday.
The A-10 has PLENTY of eastern candidates available, without having to reach out to Kansas.....


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:34 pm 
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Forgive me for any perceived emotions, but I'm still stinging from the Illinois St debacle ... and the potential fallout after that game is exactly why the "leaving the MVC" discussion is happening.

The more I think about football coming back to WSU, the less I like the idea. One thing that people need to remember: for Wichita, adding football only matters if it helps the basketball program. Basketball is king here; always has been, and always will be. Any potential AAC invite would require WSU to jump to the Sun Belt, C-USA, or MAC, which is a giant step down in basketball. Also, as Bishop mentioned, the AAC is C-USA 2.0, assuming the Big XII doesn't implode and the AAC takes all those members. Once Houston, UConn, and Cincy leave, what's left? Is that really a step up from the Valley? And if the Big XII does implode, the AAC would simply take the remnants of the Big XII and leave WSU at the altar.

I think a safe assumption is that football won't be back. I don't see the community supporting it as much as they do basketball, simply because football's such a money drain. So let's look at some hypothetical options for WSU's future (in no particular order):

1. Stay in the Valley. Miles ahead of everybody else ala Gonzaga. Little margin for error in competition. Need the rest of the schools to step up and beat some big boys. Potentially ends up as an outlier school from the main footprint if/when Missouri St leaves. But home since the mid-40s.
2. Big East. The Midwest division has similar geographic footprint as the Valley, but a better fit competition-wise. Increase in visibility, revenue, and recruiting simply through association. However, would need to convince the conference to take on a public school in a conference full of private schools, which would be difficult at best.
3. A10. See Big East, with lower visibility and revenue as well as being a geographic outlier. Increase in travel costs. Not guaranteed an increase in competition from the Valley, especially if some combination of Dayton/VCU/Richmond/Davidson end up leaving. But more likely to get admittance than they would in the Big East.
4. New basketball-only conference: A dream of some, but probably not likely, since most Midwest schools have a football focus. Would also require some A10 and AAC members to jump aboard., which would be a difficult sell.
5. AAC/MWC: Possible increase in revenues, but not really a step up in competition. Plus football would likely be a requirement.

I know that, as fans, we love to speculate and dream. WSU in the AAC appears to be everybody's dream conference, but if I'm dreaming, I'm sprinting toward the Big East. A more realistic scenario is that WSU stays in the Valley and does not restart football, but takes an invite to a larger conference if offered.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 08, 2016 5:26 pm 
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Not that this pertains to the MVC per say, But the A-10 is not going to replace UMass, or any other departing school, with a Midwestern school because they know that St Louis and Dayton both have the makings of a Big East member so they aren't going to invite someone who could end up an island. If UMass departs I think they will go with either a New England school like Fairfield or perhaps someone from New York State like Siena or Stony Brook.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:20 am 
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tute79 wrote:
With regard to the A-10, take a look at their geography.
St. Louis is a really far-flung outlier.
Dayton is also an outlier, but not nearly as bad.

The conference seems to be positioning themselves to be along the Atlantic (no further west than Pittsburgh = Duquesne), in anticipation of St. Louis (for sure) and Dayton (maybe) going elsewhere someday. The A-10 has PLENTY of eastern candidates available, without having to reach out to Kansas.....


All due respect, just because something LOOKS that way, doesn’t mean it was meant to be that way on purpose.

We did our homework when the Old Big East was going through changes, because we knew Temple & Charlotte were going to chase FBS football. When they invited Temple, we pulled the trigger on the BEST BASKETBALL SCHOOLS at the time:

Butler (Final Four 2011)
VCU (Final Four 2011)
George Mason (Final Four 2006)
Davidson (Elite 8, 2008)

We added Butler/VCU immediately, in 2012, when Temple was leaving (and played 2012-13 with 16 schools). But the new Big East took Butler with Xavier, which we didn’t really expect to happen so fast. We had our homework done, so immediately George Mason replaced Butler, and when Charlotte finally left, we went invited the last team on our list, Davidson.

Davidson had 6 NCAA trips including an Elite 8 within the last 13 years.

Wichita State, at the time, had TWO bids in 13 years, one Sweet 16… then the Final Four while all that was happening. They went to the FF in March of 2013, and we invited Davidson in May of 2013. Wichita State NOW looks like VCU of four years ago. But back then, they were just getting going.


The A-10 didn’t set about “migrating East” with eastern teams to replace Xavier and Butler.
It just happened that two of the four teams that left us were from the West.

George Mason is the key to understanding our thought process. We didn’t take GMU because they were in the East. We have the DC market covered with George Washington, who’s been to the dance 7 times in the last 20 years.

The number of eastern candidates are thin. The number of total candidates PERIOD are thin.


Whom would you suggest for the A-10 if we lost a member?

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:48 am 
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The A10 question might be better suited for the A10 thread. That said, the A10 might invite Wichita St, but I'm not convinced Wichita would take the invite, especially with Dayton and SLU (the two western-most schools in that conference) looking for a Big East invite. If that were to come to pass, the next closest A10 schools would be Duquesne and Davidson at roughly 1,050 miles each. For perspective, the farthest Valley school is Loyola Chicago at 700 miles.

Here's a relevant question to tie these thoughts together, though. Are the A10 and the Valley peers as far as conference strength, or is the A10 far superior? If the latter, what would the Valley need to do to get to that next level, besides beat some teams of relevance?


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:59 pm 
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ShockerDR wrote:
The A10 question might be better suited for the A10 thread. That said, the A10 might invite Wichita St, but I'm not convinced Wichita would take the invite, especially with Dayton and SLU (the two western-most schools in that conference) looking for a Big East invite. If that were to come to pass, the next closest A10 schools would be Duquesne and Davidson at roughly 1,050 miles each. For perspective, the farthest Valley school is Loyola Chicago at 700 miles.

Here's a relevant question to tie these thoughts together, though. Are the A10 and the Valley peers as far as conference strength, or is the A10 far superior? If the latter, what would the Valley need to do to get to that next level, besides beat some teams of relevance?


I believe that the A-10 has the advantage over the MVC. It's a deeper conference and with more members there are more opportunities for schools to have strong OOC records that boost the conference RPI. It's a more attractive conference for television due to it's presence in many strong media markets.

If the MVC wants to go to the next level I think they have to convince Dayton and St Louis to switch over which would be quite a challenge. The A-10 makes more money and puts them in several major east coast markets. While travel would be vastly better for St Louis it would be about the same for Dayton. Maybe if they let Dayton and St Louis host the men's and women's basketball tournaments every other year from now until eternity.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:11 am 
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I'd say the next A-10 expansion (if they needed to expand) might be ANYONE THEY WANT from:
CAA
American East
NEC
MAAC
Patriot

They are at 14 right now. Honestly 12 might be a better number.

Most likely to leave:
SLU / Dayton (to Big East)
UMass (to American)

I don't see anyone else seriously considering a move at this time....


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:35 pm 
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Aside from the obvious geographic concerns, the Big East can take basically anyone they want from non-FBS schools.
And likewise, the A-10 can take anyone they want from non-Big East, non-FBS schools.

I know as an A-10 guy that's going to sound arrogant and elitist, much like the Big East fan superiority I despise. But it's really the truth.

The MVC hasn't been ranked higher than the A-10 in Conference RPI since the new RPI formula came out (And the A-10 abandoned an ignorant, inexplicable OOC schedule policy that doomed the conference for five years). And when they were close, they had Creighton. Now they don't.

The CAA has been once, 2011, when VCU went to the Final Four. The A-10 was ahead of the CAA in 2006, when we were still in schedule hell and George Mason made the Final Four. VCU and George Mason are with us now.

The Horizon has been ranked ahead of us once, 2007, when they had Butler. Who joined us before moving to the Big East.


Plus there’s the TV considerations. Our TV deal is small, like $450,000 per school. I don’t the MVC TV terms, but I’m guessing it’s smaller.

Our markets are bigger, we’ve got basically about 10 top 50 markets, MVC has about four. We’ve got roughly 50 million people, they’ve got roughly 20 million.

I’m not saying ANY of those people in either place actually CARE, I’m just saying.

Wichita State would jump at the chance to join the Atlantic 10 for two reasons:

#1 - Schedule/NCAA at-large access:
Since Creighton left, Wichita State has played TWO conference games against Top 50 teams Total.

We had six in 2014, three last year, and this year will have four to six Top 50 RPI TEAMS. The schedule is unbalanced, but that’s triple the amount of good games, and we still can guarantee 7 games against bad teams get wins over.


#2 - Because offers/success doesn’t last forever. What happens if Marshall takes a BCS job, and Wichita State and Northern Iowa trade places. A situation that is not at all out of the question.

If UMass left, and they passed so we took someone East/South, then Dayton got a Big East invite… next time we might invite Northern Iowa, who’s geographically better for us anyway.

They don’t want to be Holy Cross and full of regret.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:59 pm 
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fighting muskie wrote:
If the MVC wants to go to the next level I think they have to convince Dayton and St Louis to switch over which would be quite a challenge.


I'd sub the words "Quite a challenge" with "pipe dream"

I can't find it now, but back when the new Big East was forming, there was a rumor that if the A-10 lost Xavier, Dayton and Saint Louis, the Colonial Athletic Association was semi-serious about pouncing and raiding the rest of the A-10: basically stealing VCU, Richmond back along with GW and St. Joe's; Leaving Bona, Fordham, LaSalle, UMass and Rhode Island screwed.

And I scoffed at it, saying:

VCU, Richmond, GW and SJU have (blank) NCAA bids, NCAA wins, Elite 8s and Final Fours.
UMass, Rhode Island, Bona, LaSalle and Fordham have (blank) NCAA bids, NCAA wins, Elite 8s and Final Fours
the CAA has (far less than blank) NCAA bids, NCAA wins, Elite 8s and Final Fours.
The decision for the CAA targets comes down to: would you rather have 3 MORE SUCCESSFUL Other Schools and 2 hangers on,
OR would you rather have 6 teams who've JUST HUNG ON?


The same holds true for the MVC vs A-10. Not to derail the MVC thread and trumpet A-10 dominance, but to address the MVC reality of the situation: If anyone between the MVC and Atlantic 10 moves to the other, it would be WSU/UNI joining the A-10.

If there was some massive MVC-Atlantic 10 shakeup, it's not going to be one raiding the other, but the top half of the A-10 ditching the bottom/redundant third and creating a new league with the top of the MVC. Like:
East: St. Joe’s, St. Bona, Duquesne, GW, VCU, Richmond, Davidson
West: Dayton, St. Louis, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, (three of other MVC/Oakland, Valpo, Belmont types)

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:45 pm 
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JP-- I know stealing Dayton and St Louis was an unrealistic goal for the MVC but I thought I'd take a stab at answering the question posed. While not geographically friendly, the A-10 presents the best possible opportunities for those programs shy of Big East.

As for the Colonial thinking they could counter raid the Atlantic 10, they must have been out of their minds to think they could pull that off. I'm not sure about you but I've always had a negative view of that league. They can't decide if they are an FCS football conference or a legitimate high mid-major basketball league. I thought they did a horrible job vetting their expansion candidates--Northeastern, Hofstra, and Georgia St were added for the dual purposes of expanding the footprint and bringing FCS football in house but instead they got two programs that immediately dumped the sport and a third who jumped to FBS the instant they got it off the ground. I feel like they are an odd conglomerate of publics and privates, football and nonfootball, with a geographic footprint that is untenable for a league of their caliber. They seem like a group that feels discontent on being with more regional foes and whenever thy go to expand/replace someone has an objection to every possible candidate because they don't want a challenge from an up and comer in their own backyard. Ok--enough ranting about the CAA.

As for basketball in the Midwest it's too bad that a league never congealed together that contained all of the region's best non-FBS schools. I would have liked to see Dayton, Xavier, Butler, DePaul, Marquette, Creighton, St Louis, and Wichita St all together with maybe a couple more MVC or Horizon schools to round out the membership. Of course for many years a lot of these schools had dealings with Cincinnati, Louisville, and Memphis the former of which wanted nothing to do with Xavier and Dayton and the later of two really weren't keen on buying into a Midwestern basketball identity when they themselves were more of Upper South institutions culturally. I guess I fan can dream...


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2016 1:12 am 
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fighting muskie wrote:
JP-- I know stealing Dayton and St Louis was an unrealistic goal for the MVC but I thought I'd take a stab at answering the question posed. While not geographically friendly, the A-10 presents the best possible opportunities for those programs shy of Big East.


Yes, which is Wichita State would join the A-10 if invited. It’s not all the way where they want to be, but it’s a step in the right direction. But I’ll get back to this..

fighting muskie wrote:
As for the Colonial thinking they could counter raid the Atlantic 10, they must have been out of their minds to think they could pull that off. I'm not sure about you but I've always had a negative view of that league. They can't decide if they are an FCS football conference or a legitimate high mid-major basketball league.


Well, at the time they were coming off their best showing in history. From 2006 to 2012 they had 11 NCAA bids, 13 NCAA wins and 2 Final Fours.

But I agree with your assessment. You can’t serve two masters.

fighting muskie wrote:
As for basketball in the Midwest it's too bad that a league never congealed together that contained all of the region's best non-FBS schools. I would have liked to see Dayton, Xavier, Butler, DePaul, Marquette, Creighton, St Louis, and Wichita St all together with maybe a couple more MVC or Horizon schools to round out the membership. Of course for many years a lot of these schools had dealings with Cincinnati, Louisville, and Memphis the former of which wanted nothing to do with Xavier and Dayton and the later of two really weren't keen on buying into a Midwestern basketball identity when they themselves were more of Upper South institutions culturally. I guess I fan can dream...


Well, they ALMOST HAD IT in the old Midwest Collegiate. 1990: Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis, Marquette, Evansville, Loyola, Detroit, Butler.

Obviously, with Creighton, DePaul, Marquette and Xavier joining the Big East, that ship has sailed.


What it comes down to now is two things:

#1 - How does the top group of schools/conference behind the BCS/Big East deal with the new reality of the NCAA Selection process? One which rewards teams like UCLA for simply PLAYING and losing a top of Top 50 games?

The P5 schools have set their path.
The Big East set its path: A BCS conference without football.
The FBS conferences (AAC, C-USA, MWC, Sun Belt and MAC) have set their path.

The A-10 has invited the BEST OF THE BEST from those East of the Mississippi River to join them to be the next conference behind the Big East in basketball.
The MVC and WCC are similar, but their geography has rendered them a step behind.

However, the MVC is looking like a one-bid league. The WCC looks to be a one-bid league if Gonzaga beats Saint Mary’s and BYU once more, and wins the WCC Tourney.
The A-10 has FOUR TEAMS (VCU, St. Joe’s, St. Bonaventure, GW) who look to be the victims of the Myth of BCS Superiority on Selection Sunday.


#2 - Which path does Wichita State want to travel? The idea that they could add football and become… what? Isn’t their upside being “Tulsa” ?

They remind me of Charlotte. Charlotte made 9 of 14 NCAA Tournaments from 1992-2005. Got invited to the Atlantic 10 instead of being stuck in C-USA 2.0 with the likes of ECU and Marshall. And then, instead of focusing on how to fit into the A-10 and INCREASE their basketball game, they added football and went back to C-USA? Does that make a lick of sense?

And I don’t see it making sense for Wichita State, either. The BEST they can do is an invite to the American or Mountain West. And a school their size can’t resource basketball and football enough to be competitive in either. That’s what I love about the Big East & Atlantic 10: They know who they are, and don’t pretend to be something they are not.


I honestly think the A-10, MVC and WCC commissioners should meet and discuss the best possible way to combat the BCS perception myth by working together. And be creative.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2016 1:46 am 
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JP - Serious question.

You says Wichita State could be Tulsa at best right? Well that's in a multi is league in basketball and they receive the football money (bowl share and $1million payout from playoffs) on top of a contract that is more profitable than what the A10 has.

Even if you say they follow the same path as UNCC, isn't that technically more than what they'd be receiving in the A10?

I get you analyzing this from purely a bb tourney perspective, and qualifying this with discussing how expensive a fb program can be, but even with all of that on the table I still don't see how adding fb is a bad move.

You not liking bball schools adding fb seem similar to me not liking TAMU's move to the SEC.

As much as dislike TAMU, and I can argue all the reasons why joining the SEC was stupid (increased travel, no rivals, less money...for now, and the fact that their best season in 2012 might have had them in a national championship game versus Bama or at least in a BCS a game had they stayed in the Big12 only landed them a preNY6 Cotton bowl bid), you can't argue with the benefits they've received, more stability, better recruiting, more students enrolling, more brand recognition in a more national conference, increased merchandise sales, and a Heisman winner.

Same argument can be had for WSU adding fb and joining a non P5 conference. At the end of the day they'll be similar to what I wrote above: no rivals, more travel, but more money, more stability, better recruiting, more students, better brand recognition in a more national conference with increased merchandise sales.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2016 6:11 pm 
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TKthunder wrote:
JP - Serious question.

You says Wichita State could be Tulsa at best right? Well that's in a multi is league in basketball and they receive the football money (bowl share and $1million payout from playoffs) on top of a contract that is more profitable than what the A10 has.

Even if you say they follow the same path as UNCC, isn't that technically more than what they'd be receiving in the A10?

I get you analyzing this from purely a bb tourney perspective, and qualifying this with discussing how expensive a fb program can be, but even with all of that on the table I still don't see how adding fb is a bad move.

You not liking bball schools adding fb seem similar to me not liking TAMU's move to the SEC.

As much as dislike TAMU, and I can argue all the reasons why joining the SEC was stupid (increased travel, no rivals, less money...for now, and the fact that their best season in 2012 might have had them in a national championship game versus Bama or at least in a BCS a game had they stayed in the Big12 only landed them a preNY6 Cotton bowl bid), you can't argue with the benefits they've received, more stability, better recruiting, more students enrolling, more brand recognition in a more national conference, increased merchandise sales, and a Heisman winner.

Same argument can be had for WSU adding fb and joining a non P5 conference. At the end of the day they'll be similar to what I wrote above: no rivals, more travel, but more money, more stability, better recruiting, more students, better brand recognition in a more national conference with increased merchandise sales.


I think a lot of those schools are too small and under resourced to bring in the loot.

The American Athletic gets $15 million from the CFP.
The American Athletic gets $18 million from TV for all sports contracts with ESPN/CBS

I’m guessing that’s $2.75 per all sports member, and $1.5 for football only Navy.

There’s no guarantee that goes UP with another member. In fact, the CFP is set to NOT go up with more members.

And Wichita is the #84 market in the US, which would be the second smallest in the AAC, so the odds of it increasing are not that great.

So Wichita State would be looking at $2.5 million in revenue in the AAC. If they’re lucky to be invited. I’d think Charlotte and UMass would be ahead of them for market reasons.


I can’t find the MVC’s TV revenue anywhere, so let’s assume that’s a 10x increase over their MVC deal. Charlotte’s football budget is $6.5 million. UConn’s is $15 million. So you’re spending $6.5 million minimum (After you spend $50-$150 on facilities, equipment and staff) to make $2.5 million.

Of course, you do sell tickets and make money having football. But Wichita is roughly the same size as Toledo or Utah State, market wise, but with 6000 fewer students.

I think Wichita State should try to be Gonzaga instead of Charlotte or Tulsa. It’s the much smarter path in my opinion. Yes, their “upside” is higher. If they’re the next TCU.

But the odds of them being the next TCU are much smaller than the odds of them being the next Gonzaga/Butler/Creighton.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2016 7:29 pm 
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Wichita St is in a tough spot. With Creigton gone the MVC doesn't have a lot of depth or demand a ton of basketball respect or prestige. They can't go out and build a better basketball-centric Midwestern conference because all of the schools they'd need--Xavier, Dayton, Butler, Marquette, Creigton, DePaul, and St Louis--are in better leagues making more money. So then the question is do you try to be Gonzaga or do you try to be Tulsa/Charlotte?

The trouble with being Gonzaga is that Gonzaga can depend on St Mary's and BYU to make their conference a multi-bid league each year keeping the conference relevant and boosting the RPI. The WCC also has a great deal of tv value as Gonzaga is a well known brand even though they have a small market, BYU brings a national audience and contributes a not too shabby market with Provo/Salt Lake. Not too mention you have multiple schools in the LA area and Bay areas and a couple other top 40 markets with Portland and San Diego. The MVC, as currently composed, does not have that same tv power nor can they count on other teams in their league to waive the conference banner and promote the MVC brand as a whole.

Then there's chasing the path of being a Tulsa or a Charlotte. Football is an expensive sport to operate but it can also bring in a lot of money. It's an expensive gamble. Investing in football and moving to a football-centric conference can also tank a promising basketball program. Look at Charlotte--their basketball has suffered and C-USA isn't the multi-bid league it once was (part of the reason that I think that league should consider an East/West split). Football conferences also tend to have much higher travel costs as they are more spread out (unless you are the MAC). those football conferences also tend to only be one-bid basketball leagues unless you are the American or MWC, both of which I'd consider out of the Shockers' reach at the moment.

I don't think the Wichita market is one that football conferences are going to be willing to invest in as developmental projects the way they might in cities like Charlotte, Atlanta, Hampton Roads, and San Antonio.

Ultimately, there is no clear best option for Wichita St which is why. Think they are studying the pros, cons, and feasibility of all of them.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 18, 2016 2:43 pm 
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They need to understand their limitations as an institution.

They are not a flagship university. Starting up FBS (or FCS football) is an expensive proposition.
Their BB team is very good AT THE MOMENT, largely due to Greg Marshall.
Best case - he stays at WSU until he retires. Worst case - he moves to a bigger school next season.

WSU is a mid-sized midwestern school, and their resources are about in line with the MVC schools.

They should not be delusional abut becoming "the next Ohio State" or something...


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