I've read and heard stuff from JMU fans that span the gamut about the future of the FBS upgrade. Some think the school is under terrible leadership and let the opportunities slip by them by being snobs about their landing spot (Sun Belt). Others think the school is sitting on an invitation from MAC, with MAC just taking its time as it sorts through the UMass matter and finding an additional school to add with James Madison.

Honestly, I don't care where Madison goes once in FBS. It hits the fan in CAA and CAAF once Madison leaves. Even if some folks suspect Stony Brook as a future FBS member, taking them alone out of the CAA infighting doesn't remedy the politics spilling through that conference. There's talk CoC might want back into SoCon, and that SoCon would take them back. There's the Patsy invites for various CAAF programs and a full invite on the table for TCoW&M. There's Delaware and Towson FBS studies. There's AmEast restructuring to factor. It's...all over the place. And, if the A10 depletion a few years back could still backfill successfully while CAA couldn't, I'm not sure if the A10 would need to assist CAA in any way taking programs to replenish that wouldn't shift the political climate in that conference. I mean, Hofstra should just forget about being an A10 school...it's not going to happen as long as that conference has a basketball pulse.

The MAC would be a solid home for JMU but they'd need a 14th and UMass is content with being an independent until something comes available in the American. They don't seem interested in giving up A-10 basketball.

The CAA is a bit of a dumpster fire and demonstrates exactly why hybrid conferences are a bad idea. About the only thing CAA members have in common is that they think they should be a step above their regional competition. Northeastern, Hofstra, and Drexel will block any move that isn't basketball motivated and will spurn any expansion candidate north of the Mason Dixon. Delaware, Towson, and William & Mary seem like the ones interested in trying to keep things stable. UNC-Wilmington and College of Charleston keep trying to drag the footprint South and also ar thinking about only basketball. Then there's Elon--who knows why they agreed to join this mess.

When James Madison does move up I think that CAA will start to crumble. The 4 America East affiliates would like to move sponsorship of football to their conference. Rhode Island is an obvious ally for them and if Hofstra is going to continue to block Stony Brook from full membership then Delaware, Towson, and affiliate member Villanova might be convinced to cast their lot with the America East. William & Mary goes to Patriot (along with Richmond fb). Elon craws back to the SoCon with C of C and UNC-W in tow.

The MAC plays a mean game of poker...I don't know who they'd have ready to bring in if they do. Things have changed so much in FBS that MAC could maybe poach CUSA. I know Marshall's a hot topic for its mobility...some think there's AAC there, while others would welcome a return to MAC. You've got a couple of FCS programs that look like they fit. I still think there's potential for ODU and Charlotte. There are certainly bigger and better options out there than JMU, so I wouldn't be confident that things will be there for them over time. Honestly, they should be in FBS and trying to get elsewhere than being "down below" and waiting for the call-up.

No way does Elon get back to SoCon. That move to CAA pissed off SoCon members so much, because they really tried to work with Elon to keep its membership to something Elon wanted. Elon recruits eclectically institutionally, so the northeastern bent to CAA's footprint appealed to Elon on that front...but it wasn't an academic upgrade. SoCon even called them out on that. And, considering Elon was part of a game CAA was playing to lure out Furman and Davidson, which failed, it's not like CAA picked up any leverage to extract other schools from SoCon into CAA. Nobody desirable, I would think, that is.

I think hybrids can work. The problem really is the kind of schools and their philosophies on the matter. There are conferences that can get along based on a common vision. A10 gets by with a vision for basketball with public and private schools. CAA isn't a football or non-football issue. The problems are Hofstra and Northeastern because Hofstra always wanted the A10 call-up, and Northeastern the Patriot one, moving to CAA to get ahead of Boston, who got to Patriot ahead of them anyway.

Note that the current CFP / New Years - 6 bowls contract with the G5 conference gives a fixed $ amount to those 5 conferences.

They each are at 12+ to get the extra TV money associated with a conf. championship game, but expanding beyond 12 only dilutes the money.
So you saw AAC, MWC, MAC (they kicked UMass out), and Sun-Belt stop at 12 FB members.
Only CUSA is beyond 12 (at 14 FB schools), and much of that decision was based on who was availbale for re-stocking
(when AAC kept poaching them in 2012/2013) in such a way to make the divisions more sensible.

My point - there is a financial dis-incentive for these G5 conferences to expand beyond 12 FB members.

The Power 5 ultimately have a ton of control of the future and expansion of the Group of 5 leagues. The 12 million cap almost insures that the number of Group of 5 programs will always hover around 60. The Power 5 essentially said that they only want to pay that group of schools $60 million a year and that if they are going to expand their ranks the new FBS programs are going to get their share of the playoff money at the expense of the Group of 5.

No one is going to want to grow--C-USA might even want to shrink back to 12 if the American ever calls up a couple schools. The Sunbelt is the only one in the position to add members and I think they will eventually dump NMSU and Idaho for more geographically friendly schools. There is literally no where for an FCS program west of Texas to go. It's not like anyone can just start a new conference--even then about the only way for a "new" conference to start would be for C-USA and West to split but even then they would need to call up so many Sunbelt schools to fill their ranks that the Sunbelt would be in danger of going the way of the WAC.

JMU might not ever have anywhere to go.

Eh, MAC's working with a different philosophy. They didn't sever UMass just to stay at twelve. They wanted UMass, and they were (and from what I can tell, still are) fine with fourteen. Kicking out UMass only put them back to twelve, but the issue of the divisions is still there, and it is a VERY big deal to the conference. That Toledo-BG thing is legit.

Now, depending on CCG autonomy measures, maybe something can change, and the MAC can resolve their issues without divisions, but until then, the MAC made peace with dilution. Until otherwise, balance is better.

I do think there's something going on behind closed doors, though, be it with the MAC or something between the FBS-FCS thing. There's no incentive for certain programs to gear up *now* for projects when a window might not be open until 2025. So, Missouri State and Stony Brook look a little...curious (?) for their projects. Maybe something does happen in 2016, impacting 2017-18, or something bigger looms.

Ironically, both Stony Brook and Missouri State have fans cackling about MAC. Toss in Madison, and even if they do move to 14, one of those guys aren't working with all the facts. Madison and Stony both going, though...kiss CAAF goodbye.

The MAC is a strange conference. They seem like they are alright with a small footprint but are willing to expand if the situation was right. It's too bad for them that the Big East blew up when it did. They were on the cusp of having both Temple and UMass as an eastern flank and those two might have been ok with jumping on as full members as long as they had eachother. The MAC might have even sweetened things for them by adding Dayton and St Louis for added basketball prowess. It would have been awesome.

When Temple was taken of the table and UMass wasn't interested in full membership I think the new plan was to lure James Madison and Stony Brook in, as neither school would stifle at the MAC's weaker basketball, but Stony Brook wasn't ready and without UMass expansion was no longer imperative so the plans were shelved.

If and when the Colonial loses James Madison and Stony Brook football I think that conference will crack wide open.

Totally agree muskie !

I think UMass was brought along to be part of apair with Temple, and when Temple left, UMass just didn't fit in...
Maybe at the time, MAC was thinking Temple, UMass, Delaware, and JMU.
Now - that just isn't happening.

What COULD happen -

If the Big XII expands, it will likely poach AAC for some of: cincy, Memphis, UCF, USF, Houston, Tulane (who knows?)
When that happens, AAC will look to re-stock by poaching CUSA.
HOWEVER, in such a scenario, UMass might get a strong look, along with Army (as a FB only member to pair with Navy).

Totally digressing from CAA talk here but yes, it will be interesting to see what direction the Amercian goes if and when they lose members. They could do what C-USA did and try to maintain their current footprint or we might see them shift somewhat. If they lost the western flank do they replace with western schools or do they swing back it east and take programs like UMass or a resurgent Marshall? I guess it all depends on who they lose.

I'm curious if ODU and Charlotte would have been invited to C-USA had ECU not advocated for regional rivals before they too left.

ECU pulled for ODU. Charlotte had many more allies.

Charlotte knew where it could early on, I suspect. The expandable stadium tipped off FBS talks, and turning down CAAF meant something better than Sun Belt.

Patriot football schools want another member. I suspect CAAF should be more concerned than Pioneer.

William and Mary as a full member and Rickmond for football only would be Patriot slam dunks. They have the academic profile to fit in with the Patriot. James Madison Is going to abandon them someday and ODU already has and the lack of regional rivalries doesn't keep the tied to the Colonial.

No doubt about that. Because it won't just be CAA impacted. This will rock America East, too.

America East currently sits at 11, so if they lose just Stony Brook, they may choose not to reload. Stony Brook's departure would cost America East its automatic bid in Women's Tennis, but it has already lost its bid in Men's Tennis, and its members are affiliates of other conferences in that sport.

Assuming it is Stony Brook and James Madison to the MAC, this puts CAA football at 10 members and overall membership at 9 schools. I would think finding a replacement in the state of Virginia has to be a priority to keep the southern schools connected to the rest of the conference. Liberty and VMI are the only remaining FCS programs in Virginia not playing in the CAA, and at this point Liberty probably has to realistically rule out FBS for an extended amount of time. The CAA adds Liberty for all sports, and Monmouth for football only.

If William & Mary walks also then VMI is next in line, allowing the SoCon to go after Gardner Webb. Richmond football leaving the CAA allows the CAA to pick up Kennesaw State for football only.

Presbyterian and Charleston Southern work out affiliation deals with the OVC and SoCon, giving each league a 10th member in football.

I think it's well-known that JMU hopes to jump to the "right" FBS confernece ASAP.

Have we seen ANY evidence that the administration at Stony Brook is thinking of a similar move ?

OK Buffalo is a sister school of Stony Brook (SUNY), and they are in the MAC, but upgrading football to FBS
is a multi-million $ proposition, and I have heard nothing to suggest Stony Brook is in the planning stages of this...

If I am incorrect, please post something from an official source at the school. Thanks.

The Seawolves United campaign was the first (and only) bit I've heard about Stony being *that* interested in a more significant football future. And, wow, just read this page from it. Some of the tidbits contain:

-a study of their programs' placement for maximum exposure and viability to access playoffs in all sports
-win a championship
-LaValle stadium goes to at least 15K
-"compete at the highest level of intercollegiate football"
-become a model program among AAU peers...

They want to expand a lot of facilities with this, and their timeline is 2015-20, meaning some of this is ongoing. They're scheduling FBS games until they're told they can't. They expect to win some.

At the very least? They're gone from AEast and CAAF. I don't think MAC's going to do much for them, either...so, what is their endgame? A P5?