The A-10 isn't looking that strong in bball right now, is it ?
Honestly I think the A-10 is projected to have a handful of tournament teams this year (Virginia Commonwealth, Saint Louis, George Washington, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph's, and maybe Richmond). I think Massachusetts would rather stay in the A-10 for basketball, but the question is whether the MAC would put up with it for long. They did with Temple, but I'm not sure they'll keep it up with Massachusetts. They might end up with the same situation in the American, CUSA, or the Sun Belt. I doubt the American because Massachusetts football is weak. CUSA wouldn't be bad a choice. Logistically, the Sun Belt would be terrible for Massachusetts.
There's a lovely USA Today article about "Could the A-10 get 7 bids?"
UMass is probably going to choose A-10 over "all-in" the MAC for a little while (especially when football gives them...
If the A-10 gets six bids (kinda likely), and the R64 goes to seed, that's 10 NCAA units for the conference. 1/3 of that split among the members, the other 2/3 by who makes it (and UMass in that situation would be sitting on two. That's 2.5 units per year (plus previous years still being paid out, including a larger share because Xavier & Temple walked away from units).
I think UMass is waiting to see what happens with:
A - The Atlantic 10, and if the Big East goes big (taking 3-4 A-10 teams)
B - The American, if UConn & Cincy find homes. I don't think the Big 12 would take Cincy and SMU, but if they did, the American is probably going to offer UMass an all-sport invite.