Given a possible BE split and eventual A-10 dissolution here would be an ideal conference and potential 3-4 bid league:

East:
Providence
Seton Hall
Fordham
St. Joe's
La Salle
GW
Duquesne

West:
Xavier
Dayton
Butler
Marquette
DePaul
St. Louis
Valpo

Now 12 would be ideal, but build in 2 extra teams in case of those who get delusional. I'm presuming the BE split will take Georgetown, Villanova, and St. John's (not going to give up that market, especially when SJ is good they generate big attention in NYC). Notre Dame, likewise, would never join this league.

I presume St. Joe's and La Salle are a package deal. St. Bonaventure would be a nice fit for the MAAC (whether they realize it or not). Richmond w/ football would appear to eventually head for the CAA or similar conference.
Duquesne can act as a geographic swing team, as they can fit in either East or West division. This may be necessary due to some myopia on the parts of Marquette, Seton Hall, or Providence. If that's the case with SH and PC, you can potentially lure Drake and Creighton for the West division and move Xavier and Dayton to the East. Additionally, to create 16-team league perhaps Creighton and Drake can be enticed (especially with a looming MVFC) right away.

Given the number of Catholics/Privates in East and Midwest, there are numerous options to fill gaps or provide better fit such as aforementioned St. Bona, Detroit, Loyloa-Chi (a stretch w/ DePaul), Evansville, Bradley, and Siena.

It's important to note that what you are suggesting from the football schools is not entirely a split...it's more like booting 4 members. This leads you back to the rationale for a split: if you are 9 members right now, and looking to improve the football product and stop sharing revenue with non-football schools, why bring in 4 non-football schools to make your existing 16 school conference into a 13 school conference?

I'm on board with Notre Dame joining the football side as the lone non-football school. Especially if Villanova upgrades to be football members #10. The Big East would be in a position at 10 to find (2) more schools like UCF and Houston. If Notre Dame were in, then you bring in UCF for #11 and ECU for football #12, but exclude them from other sports (which Notre Dame would take).

But even with the simple addition of 1 non-football school (Notre Dame), it still leaves you in hybrid mode.


It just seems that if the eventual split ever does come to fruition, that the rationale will be to end the hybrid scenario they are currently in.


As for the other side, as many have said, I think they'll be fine. Providence, St. Johns, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Marquette and Depaul would instantly be able to bring in schools like Xavier, Dayton and St. Louis to get to 9. They'd also have options like Richmond (GTowns top choice)...a non-catholic private school. Can't rule out non-private basketball schools too. Providence lobbied for UMass in 2003 for the basketball side (when a split was discussed).

I don't see a number of the schools you mentioned ever having serious discussions though. Fordham has been a laughing stock...the A10 members wanted them out of the A10...but luckily they've turned things around with some new financing of the program. LaSalle, St. Joes, GW, Duquesne, Valpo..they's guys are on a tier lower than the current Big East non-football schools. There just isn't much attraction by them to the Big east schools.

Also real important to remember that these current Big east schools will have the pride element. It would be next to impossible to envision these schools trading in the likes of Uconn, Syracuse and Pitt for Valpo, LaSalle and Fordham. Not when the remaining Big East schools could just invite the best of the best and have a comfortable 8 team conference.

I mean, even in the dream scenario where GTown, Villanova, Notre Dame and St. Johns are leave, the remaining schools would be better off with just inviting the best options to get to 8:

Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, Depaul, Xavier, Dayton, St. Louis and for #8, either Richmond, Butler, UMass, Siena, Temple.

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Quinn, you're right when viewing the Catholics/Privates with a clean BE split. Why would Georgetown or St. John's want to be associated with some obvious second tier schools? My basis of course, is the BE splits but decides to take G'town and SJ and depending on situation, ND. It's hard to imagine the BE moving on without the likes G'Town, ND, Nova and SJ. However, I guess the theoretical precedent would've been the Big 12 split and how Kansas would've been left to rot despite its b-ball prowess.

Okay so w/ your clean split theory w/o Villanova and ND:

Georgetown
St John's
Seton Hall
Providence
Marquette
DePaul
Xavier
Dayton
Butler
St. Louis
+2 (Temple, UMass, Richmond, Duquesne, etc)

w/ Nova and ND:

G'town
SJ
SH
Nova
Providence
ND
Marquette
DePaul
Xavier
Dayton
Butler
St. Louis

I think Quinn is right about a more clean split. The only way Georgetown is brought along in my mind is for an even number or with the expectation that they will one day upgrade their football program. I know that's a long way off as they don't even have scholarship football, but the hybrid stuff stops if there is a split, with the exception of ND of course.

ECU as a football only school would make a ton of sense to offset ND's non football membership since I doubt Houston or UCF will go as a football only member.

If it's taken Nova this long to decide, clearly the monetary gain is not substantial enough or else they would have made the move a lot sooner. If the money was there it wouldn't take this long so I figure they are staying put.

So the current 10 football schools could add UCF and Houston and keep G'town and ND as non football members (12/14) or the 10 add UCF or Houston and someone like ECU is brought in as a football only to offset ND (12/12).

As for the new Private Conference looks pretty solid with or without Nova and G'town.

You also need to factor in the economic logic. As ti is right now, there is nothing true to benefit the basketball schools to expand beyond simple conference stability. We're not talking about an FBS football conference trying to get to 12 to have a championship. And we're not talking a lower tier conference looking to get to 10 or 12 to make their travel schedules easier and much cheaper with nearby members. While the Big East basketball schools would be hurt by the departure of so many of it's top programs due to football split, they would still be much better off than say the A10, MVC, etc.

The question you need to ask yourself (and what the conference members have discussed) is WHY to expand. Post-split, expansion would be to simply solidify membership.

As it is now, we might be talking about and 8/8 split. That happens and you might not even see basketball-side expansion. Xavier replacing the lost Cincy market and a bridge to ND, DeP and Marquette seems logical to get to 9. But really, even at 8, there is no reason to expand. Maybe, and it seems like a big maybe, there is justification to expand to 10 if it added a pivotal market or program. But really, if you're at 9 with Xavier, you don't "need" Dayton. Does Richmond give you a financial advantage as #10? Maybe not.


Just important to remember we're talking about a very good non football conference that would be the result of the football schools leaving. No need to push to 12 members since there's no football championship game to worry about...and it would be a good enough conference that other than Xavier, there would be no candidates better than the current group.

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Agreed, a clean split would be neater. Minus ND for now, and presume Villanova does not upgrade:

w/Travel Partners:
G/town-Nova
SJ-SH
DePaul-Marquette
Providence-UMass?

I would say getting to 10 would make sense for scheduling purposes and to also try to get more bids in the tourney. If it is indeed an 8/8 split the addition of two more (say Xavier and Butler) you're probably looking at another bid each season. So of that 10 team league, you could have 4 or even 5 bids (Nova, G'town, ND, Xavier and some years Butler or another of the current BE teams).

12 doesn't work for me because I don't feel there are that many good options and as Quinn mentioned, these are large schools that aren't worried about travel. Regardless of who goes where after the split, I don't envision the basketball conference going past 10 nor the football conference going past a 12/14 model (However, I like the 12/12 model best).

And as we're dealing with dream scenarios for all-private conferences/non-football conferences...

There's always the mythical beast that many want to see return: a midwest version of the football-less Big East.

Creighton, Butler, Drake, Bradley, Evansville, Detroit, St. Louis, Wichita St (no football), Loyola, Valpo, etc, all as candidates.

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Wichita is the outlier in that group - large, state school.

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I'd like to see the MVC become a conference similar to that and have the football schools break off. They could even have a rivalry with a split Big East conference. A couple private school conference challenge.

I'm confused as to why the A-10 was have a "dissolution" if the Big East split.

The only possible scenario that leads to the A-10 dissolving would be:
Nova upgrades to FBS, so the Big East splits.
The Big East Football Side adds UCF and Houston.
Denied entry to the BEHS/BEFS, Temple (1) joins C-USA.
The BEBS adds Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis, Charlotte, Richmond and Saint Joseph's

The A-10 is down to seven: UMass, URI, Duquesne, LaSalle, GW, St. Bona, Fordham. I really don't see why any of the remaining teams would disband. Who's going to have better options? Unless the CAA goes for GW or the Horizon invites Duquesne, I don't see why they wouldn't stay put.

In fact, it would be an interesting power-struggle to see what happens when they vote on who to add to replenish the league. Would they be able to take from the CAA? Or the Horizon? What about adding George Mason, VCU, Butler, Cleveland State and Qunnipiac to that group of seven?

****

Also, Dayton is getting an invite if the Big East splits. Sure, Richmond, Charlotte, Saint Louis, Duquesne are in bigger markets. But so is Fordham, Manhattan, etc. Heck, half the Big West is in a market of 15 million people, but that doesn't mean jack for their attractiveness.

Dayton's been the most successful, year in and year out, of anyone else. Their market isn't "big" but it's not like it's Sandusky, or Muncie. It's #61 with almost 900,000 people. Plus, when you have Xavier AND Dayton, not only does it give you a two rivalry week games for your TV package, but you add in Middletown and all the rapidly growing townships on I75 between UD and X's campus and it makes for a market with the population of about the #18 market in the US.

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