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PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2016 10:48 am 
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My top 3 picks would be St Louis, Dayton, and Duquesne.

Wichita St is a geographic outlier and a tiny market---Gonzaga is on the other side of the country and would be a travel nightmare.

I also wouldn't mind seeing them bring a Boston school into the fold. Maybe Boston University--they are private and have strong academics.

Boston University and Duquesne can join the eastern division while St Louis and Dayton can augment the West.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:28 am 
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Wichita is no more a geographic outlier in the Big East than they currently are in the MVC, though. The western footprint of the Big East is in the same geographic region as the Valley, so I don't think that's going to be an issue. Gonzaga yes, but not Wichita.

I also don't think market size will be an issue, but that's only if SLU gets an invite along with Wichita, because the BE could get into the KC market along with STL and Wichita.

I do think Wichita is going to have resistance among some of the Catholic 7 because of what happened in the old Big East, and Wichita is more like those old BE-turned-AAC schools as far as history, academic pedigree, and identity (Wichita is a public school). However, it all depends on what the BE presidents want in a potential member institution. Is basketball success the primary motivator, or is identity bigger?

In terms of Creighton's thoughts, I guarantee they're more concerned with getting a regional rival than anything else, and they and Wichita have a long-standing rivalry from the MVC days. I just don't think Creighton has enough sway to convince the BE presidents that Wichita is a good fit. I've said on the MVC thread that the BE is a better fit for Wichita than Wichita is a fit for the BE, but crazier things have happened.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:49 am 
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Gonzaga ? REALLY ????

That's geographically laughable like when Boise St. was temporarily in the BE football conference.

So this scenario would involve NO football money, but would impose HUGE travel expense....

Would Gonzaga even bother to consider it ?

Wichita State could be a travel partner for Creighton. St. Louis would be better.

The problem with Wichita State is, what happens once Greg Marshall leaves ?

St. Louis / Dayton / Duquesne are much better fits for the long haul,
and they will spend money on better coaching once they are in a conference that attracts better recruits than they pull in right now.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2016 2:30 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
Gonzaga ? REALLY ????

That's geographically laughable like when Boise St. was temporarily in the BE football conference.

So this scenario would involve NO football money, but would impose HUGE travel expense....

Would Gonzaga even bother to consider it ?

Wichita State could be a travel partner for Creighton. St. Louis would be better.

The problem with Wichita State is, what happens once Greg Marshall leaves ?

St. Louis / Dayton / Duquesne are much better fits for the long haul,
and they will spend money on better coaching once they are in a conference that attracts better recruits than they pull in right now.


If Gonzaga wants to raise their conference profile their best bet would be to try to jump to the MWC, either to fill the 12th spot in Olympic sports that Hawaii fills in football, or should BYU return to the MWC, Gonzaga and St Mary's could try to ride along too.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2016 2:12 pm 
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They have TERRIFIC basketball. I wouldn't want to demean them.

But conferences should have a "profile", that includes geography.

MWC's profile is "all-sports".
They made an exception for Hawai'i football, since Olympic sports travel to / from Hawai'i is ungodly expensive.

With a 68-team tournament, there shoud always be room for Gonzaga and St. mary's if they're good enough.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:03 pm 
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I don’t know how I convince the world that I’m 100% correct on this, but I’m going to keep trying until the world comes to their senses…

#1 - “I’m not looking for the best players, I’m looking for the RIGHT ONES.”

If you made a conference of the Top 10 teams, and made them play a double-round robin, the bottom three teams are gonna have too many losses to make the NCAA Tournament. Period.

It wouldn’t matter if they are a ridiculously good team, SOMEONE’S gotta go 4-14.

That’s what’s happening to the bottom of the Big East.

The difference between 3-8 in the Big East is razor thin. And they beat the crap out of each other. Forget about RPIs for a second… We know the top 5 of the Big East are NCAA teams… because they did make the NCAAs.
PC & Butler were 10-8 in the double-round robin. CREI (9-9), MARQ (8-10) and Georgetown (7-11) are right behind.

Just in conference play:
Creighton played 10 games vs those 5 NCAA teams, 4 vs fellow bubble/NIT teams; 4 against bad DePaul & rebuilding St. John’s.
Marquette played 10 games vs those 5 NCAA teams, 4 vs fellow bubble/NIT teams; 4 against bad DePaul & rebuilding St. John’s.
Georgetown played 10 games vs those 5 NCAA teams, 4 vs fellow bubble/NIT teams; 4 against bad DePaul & rebuilding St. John’s.


Now let’s look at South Carolina and Alabama & Georgia in just SEC regular season play:

So Carolina: 2 games against Texas A&M and Kentucky (Legit NCAA), 8 vs bubble/NIT; 8 vs teams 9-14 of the SEC (RPI 135-224)
Alabama played 3 games vs A&M/UK; 8 vs bubble/NIT; 7 vs SEC teams 9-14 (Creighton beat Xavier, Alabama got stomped by X).


#2 - Market size/share.

The A-10 has Fordham in New York City. The Big West has five schools in Los Angeles. The Horizon has teams in Detroit, Chicago and Milwaukee.

No one cares.

It’s not enough to BE IN a market. There’s a competition factor.

Wichita State is a terrible choice for what the Big East needs. The Big East needs a program that will take it’s lumps in Big East play for a while and need to catch up. But they need to have a rabid fan base that lives in major markets and will watch the Big East games on Fox Sports 1 & Fox Sports 2 in the meantime.

#3 - NCAA bids & NCAA wins; and RPI from past seasons don’t matter.

When the ACC expanded to 15 teams, a wise man said “You can’t just say “The ACC got 8 teams last season and are now adding Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville and Notre Dame so they’ll get 11 bids going forward. Conference play is a zero sum game. Those four joining the league might get in, but they’re going to squeeze out Clemson & NC State, who will go from 9-9 to 7-11 and head to the NIT”

And that’s exactly what happened. The ACC this year basically got 10 teams (9 plus Louisville).

Likewise, RPI is based entirely on your schedule. OOC changes every year, and if you’re switching leagues, you’re changing the 18-game conference slate for someone like Gonzaga, Wichita State, etc.

Wichita State is 17-15 in their last 36 regular season games against power conference teams. And the Big East is a lot stronger/deeper than most power conferences. That included a lot of Texas Tech/TCU/Alabama 140 RPI schools. More than the Big East is going to have.


#4 - What IS important: OOC wins against the kind of schedule a new addition would put together.

Gonzaga, Wichita State, Dayton… you add them for next fall and they’re gonna be NIT teams because they’ve already booked a OOC SOS designed to get them a bid after going 16-2 in the WCC/MVC or 13-5 in the A-10.

The Big East needs teams that will go 9-3 OOC or better against a pretty easy OOC schedule.



The ideal candidates for the Big East would be Bonaventure, Belmont and one sexy name (Dayton, Gonzaga, VCU or Wichita State) And they should make the move immediately when they can trumpet the season Bona just had.

Because programs like Bona & Belmont are what they NEED. Teams that will hit their marks OOC, probably go no better than 6-12 most years and put the 7th and 8th Big East team into the dance.


Bona & Belmont are in decent sized regions (Bonaventure fans are in Buffalo & Rochester, two top 52 markets, with 2.6 million people and zero BCS programs in them). Belmont is in Nashville, we’re they’re going against a Vanderbilt team that always underachieves and a MTSU program in a one-bid league.

Those are WINNABLE MARKETS for the Big East. With the Big East brand/revenue, both programs can start raising their game. In the meantime, the current members can beat them up and get more bids.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:03 pm 
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Also, in the event that Gonzaga would accept a BE invite, they shouldn't invite Wichita State with them; they should invite BYU.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:51 pm 
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If the Big East we're make a dramatic and unorthodox move and invite Gonzaga, (a move I don't think they'd make), I would go for St Mary's as their west coast travel partner in hopes that they could deliver Bay Area fans and the nation's 6th largest market.

But for more realistic expansion wouldn't St Louis and Duquesne make the most logical sense? They bring the 21st and 23rd media markets; neither market has NBA competition; they are both Catholic; one is Northeastern while the other is Midwestern maintaining a geographic balance and permitting divisional play. Both could fulfill the cellar dweller who wins all of their soft OOC games role.

If rabid ran base that will support a weaker team is a big motivating factor then pick Dayton.

JP--in your opinion, would the Big East be better off with 10, 12, or 14 members?


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 6:07 pm 
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You'd want BYU over Saint Mary's for a number of reasons.

For starters, which looks more like a Big East program:
A. http://static.panoramio.com/photos/large/2268659.jpg
B. http://byucougars.com/files/kchilton/ph ... 3.jpg.jpeg

Secondly, while Saint Mary's is in an isolated location amid the Bay Area, there's a massive amount of schools in the Bay Area:

Saint Mary's is behind California, Stanford, ahead of Santa Clara, USF and Pacific in the WCC, and San Jose State of the MWC in terms of basketball prowess, but they're also the tiniest by enrollment of those six.


BYU is THE Mormon college. They have a world-wide TV network that shows all the BYU sports the Cougars have second/third tier rights to; (and BYU-TV buys rights from the WCC to show some conference tournament games like WCC baseball & women's basketball).

While BYU's fan base isn't a mega market like Saint Mary's, there's more BYU fans and BYU would probably increase the TV ratings a little bit in every city, not just in Utah.

BYU over Saint Mary's is a no brainer. And BYU over Gonzaga is damned close, in my opinion. Because the Big East doesn't NEED what the main draw of Gonzaga IS. Five to Seven years ago, there were "power conference teams, plus Xavier, Gonzaga and Butler."

The Big East is a power conference. They don't need to expand to get better basketball teams. They need to expand to administrate a season that lets more of their good basketball teams get NCAA bids.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 6:58 pm 
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As for 10, 12 or 14... It's not a "magic number" they're trying to hit. It all depends on WHO those teams are.

I quoted Herb Brooks above: “I’m not looking for the BEST players, I’m looking for the right ones.”


What you want is a ratio of teams in your conference — because they can’t ALL win - where those who win are in NCAA contention and those who don’t soak up the conference losses.

Let’s say you have quarters:

NCAA 1-5 seeds (Xavier & Nova this past year)
NCAA 6-11 seeds/bubble (PC, Butler, Hall this past year)
Bubble/NIT teams (Creighton, Marquette, Georgetown)
Rebuilding (St. John’s, DePaul)

In a 10-team league, the standings are going to be around the same, where 5th and 6th place will be 10-8 to 8-10.

The problem the Big East has, is that 6th and 7th (Creighton, Marquette) and 8th (Georgetown) are so freaking close, they’re “too capable” of beating teams 3-4-5 in the standings; and there’s not enough teams at the bottom (DePaul/St. John’s) for all eight of them to be 8-10 or better. The WORST the bottom two can be is 1-35 combined; and DePaul & St. John’s are actually too good to consistently do that.

With the programs they have, in order to get more teams in, they’d need more to the bottom. And that’s why I don’t think they should add two. I think they should add THREE.


What you WANT is:
NCAA LOCK (15-3) Nova
NCAA LOCK (14-4) Xavier

NCAA SAFE (13-5) Hall
NCAA SAFE (12-6) Butler
NCAA SAFE (11-7) PC
NCAA SAFE (11-7) DAYTON

NCAA BUBBLE (10-8) Creighton
NCAA BUBBLE (9-9) ST. BONA
NCAA BUBBLE (9-9) Marquette

BAD (6-12) Georgetown
BAD (3-15) DePaul
BAD (2-16) St. John’s
BAD (2-16) BELMONT

And next year, Bona’s getting worse, and would probably switch spots with Georgetown or St. John’s.


8 of 13 every year is doable. Belmont and Bona are well behind the Big East and would struggle. They’d probably go 0-for on the road. Bona’s always been frisky, but NOW is the time the Big East could sneak a “bottom team” into the league without anyone getting too up in arms, because Bonaventure was #30 in the RPI last season and a HISTORICAL NCAA SNUB.

So they add Dayton & Bonaventure, trumpeting their fit in the league: “Dayton is a Big East program right now, as is, like Creighton was in the MVC. St. Bonaventure is a program that’s always exceeded expectations and resources and we’re eager to see what they can do with Big East resources. They have a regional brand not limited to Olean, but Buffalo and Rochester, and there’s 2.6 million people in Western New York. And speaking of markets, the Nashville market is one we’re proud to have in the Big East. Belmont has a been a rock steady program from decades, and like Bonaventure, we feel they can take the next step in the Big East conference.”


Belmont can also play some games in the NHL Arena, win that region because the competition is a MTSU team stuck in C-USA and a Vandy team that always underachieves.

And if the 13-team format is a problem, you’ve got a slot to add Richmond or Saint Louis.

But why would the schedule be a problem? You already have staggered game nights for TV purposes with every game on FS1 or FS2. There’d always be one team off on Saturday because you have an odd number… but they’d just be the team about to play on Monday night on the road in a TV game. No big deal. Your schedule matrix is pretty easy because everyone plays HALF the opponents twice, and half the opponents once, and the next year, it flips. It’s actually easier to schedule than with 14.


I think that trio is a winning formula for the Big East. Bona was up when St. John’s was down. But Bona & Belmont are gonna take a while to build Big East infrastructure, get Big East recruits and be competitive. And by then, 7 to 9 of the established programs will be making NCAA bids left and right.

Financially, a 13-way split is offset by getting more teams into the dance. Assuming expanding alone gets the Big East ONE more bid every year, you’d need an extra unit every other year to make it financially worth their while:

5 bids per year = 0.5 units per 10 teams; 6.5 bids per year = 0.5 units per 13 teams.

(We’re going to assume that the first five win IN the tournament at the same rate).

Well, the average win pct of an 11 seed is over .333. So you’re gonna get FOUR extra units every six years if you send an extra team to the dance every other year. (And that percentage is not including First Four wins, which give you a unit; plus the First Four is now an advantage for you… you’re playing in an arena your players have played in before within the last 18 months minimum).

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:37 pm 
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I've been harping about how St. Bonaventure isn't JUST the Olean market, it's all of Western New York, where there's 2.6 million people.


NBC Sports Atlantic 10 TV ratings report showed that the St. Bona games had the most viewers. More than #2 VCU and #3 Dayton.

Bonaventure's enrollment is 1/3rd the size of Dayton's and 1/15th the size of VCU's.

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:53 am 
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JPSchmack wrote:
I've been harping about how St. Bonaventure isn't JUST the Olean market, it's all of Western New York, where there's 2.6 million people.


NBC Sports Atlantic 10 TV ratings report showed that the St. Bona games had the most viewers. More than #2 VCU and #3 Dayton.

Bonaventure's enrollment is 1/3rd the size of Dayton's and 1/15th the size of VCU's.


They did have a breakout season after years of not so hot ones. Some of that is probably the bandwagon effect. Where were their ratings when they were at the bottom of the A-10 standings?


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:26 pm 
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fighting muskie wrote:
JPSchmack wrote:
I've been harping about how St. Bonaventure isn't JUST the Olean market, it's all of Western New York, where there's 2.6 million people.


NBC Sports Atlantic 10 TV ratings report showed that the St. Bona games had the most viewers. More than #2 VCU and #3 Dayton.

Bonaventure's enrollment is 1/3rd the size of Dayton's and 1/15th the size of VCU's.


They did have a breakout season after years of not so hot ones. Some of that is probably the bandwagon effect. Where were their ratings when they were at the bottom of the A-10 standings?


Of course it was the unexpected success of the season that fueled the ratings for Bonaventure (although, they made the dance in 2012). But remember that VCU and Dayton have been consistently making the dance for a while now (while Bona didn't).

Dayton & VCU have reputations of rabid fan bases. VCU and Dayton are freaking huge compared to the school size and (alleged) market sizes of St. Bonaventure.

By all the normal standards by which one would make assumptions and assessments about St. Bonaventure, in terms of conference expansion, the market size, location, school size, alumni numbers all point to the school being a ridiculous choice and not a serious candidate.

And that's why this data backs up my points.

We talk about market size/location/school size/alumni numbers/athletic performance/facilities/etc. But what about those things ACTUALLY MATTER? Are those individual items significant on their own? Of course not! The most-watched teams in college sports are in places like market #326 Lawrence, #160 Tuscaloosa, #190 Gainesville.

There's NO correlation between ONE of those items and fan interest. Those items are merely just the best tools we have to indicate what we're really looking for.

Bonaventure's TV data shows why some of those criteria can be misleading. People who go to school in small towns rarely stay in that small town the rest of their lives. They go all over the place. Which is why the market size of Olean is an insane indicator for Bonaventure.

St. Joe's is twice the size of Bona, in the huge Philly market, had a more successful season than Bonaventure, and were at best 4th in TV ratings in the A-10. There's something about Bonaventure that makes them bigger presence in college basketball than those line item criteria.

We've accepted that Gonzaga transcends those indicators, despite being "small" compared to most in market size, enrollment, facility size, and alumni. Because why? They became American's Cinderella, a WCC powerhouse, and a national program. But they had the cult-like following to begin with and THEN started dominating a conference than has way fewer strong teams than the Atlantic 10.


And that's the crux of my argument: St. Bonaventure is a tiny school with the cult-like following that always over-achieves in the #7 conference in college basketball. What would they do with six times the TV revenue if they were in the Big East?

The Big East doesn't have the need to go out and add a peer school. They are too similar in programs that they can't all win. They need to bring in someone with Big East potential to take their lumps for a time, and that will grow the league in terms of power and prestige. And then they can do it again with the next guy once Bonaventure "arrives."

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2016 4:39 pm 
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Article out of Manchester(previously posted in another thread)discussing report that UConn "may" decide to join the BE for non-FB sports if they do not "snag" a Big 12 invite.Link at http://www.journalinquirer.com/report-b ... 5e64d.html


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 25, 2016 5:11 am 
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That sounds a lot like Blaudschun's opinion, as opposed to a source...

I cannot see how a program like UConn makes that call.

It's not like it's a matter of revenue, because the AAC & Big East TV deals are remarkably similar. It's $2 million each.

OF COURSE, the main difference is the Big East is selling MBB (and some other sports) to Fox, and AAC is selling the same, PLUS football, for the same price; the big difference is THIRD TIER RIGHTS. UConn has a big third-tier rights deal with SNY; mostly around women's basketball; but the fact is, that while ESPN picks and chooses all the national TV broadcasts for the AAC and then UConn gets unaired games as third tier content.... EVERY BIG EAST GAME is a Fox, FS1, FS2 game. Which means, UConn would get $2 million from the Big East for their entire MBB inventory; and Fox would be getting UConn WBB first tier rights (very valuable), included. And then UConn can sell less inventory than before as third tier rights.

So how is this a good move for UConn? Unless they're getting an independent football deal? Or the $500,000 like Navy gets?

This just doesn't make sense for me.

The AAC is a better conference than the Big East in every sport but men's basketball. And granted WBB conference strength will follow UConn's women's team if they switch leagues. But it sounds more like UConn leaking something to try and get ESPN involved in the Big 12 or ACC talks; because the Big East is a Fox property.

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