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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2003 8:18 pm 
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The Conference Realignment & Expansion Chronicles
-by Matt Peloquin, CollegeSportsInfo.com

Over the past few weeks every major publication has included their predictions as to how the recent conference expansion rumors will play out. For the past 3 years, we’ve all participated on the Conference Realignment and Expansion Forum, making it the most popular and regularly visited sites for such a subject. We share opinions, news leaks and other related information that has helped shape our opinions.

Since all the so-called expert sports writers have been taking their stabs at the general topic of Re-Alignment, I thought it would be best if there real professionals give it a try. This site was formed three years ago, because Expansion and Re-alignment were topics of much interest for me. Judging by the regular traffic and posters who visit, many of you share a similar passion for this topic (and yes, many of the most interested site members are fans from some of the “fringe” schools like Louisville, Marshall, UCF, etc). What I’ve learned for myself and what I’ve learned from all of you have all gone into what you are about to read.

The recent Miami to the ACC rumblings have brought extra attention to our community. Everyone has their own opinions as to how the various scenarios are going to play out. This is one of those opinions. Enjoy.



Part 1: The ACC Power Holders


There have been rumors floating around the internet realm for some time now regarding Miami and the ACC. After years of speculation, it is as close to reality as it has ever been. We've heard about the "7 votes" issue. Duke and UNC will vote against expansion. NC State, Maryland and UVA are all said to be wavering, but closer to yes votes than no votes. There are subplots, like UVA wanting VA Tech rather than Boston College. As is life, nobody is completely happy. But one thing is for sure....if Miami wants in, they will be in...and here’s why.


Mike Tranghese has refused all interview requests since the Miami flirtation has become public. As it appeared publicly that Miami was leaning towards leaving the Big East, we learned about the "backup" plan by the Big East schools. With this scenario, all the football playing members of the Big East would essentially oust the non-football schools. They have the voting advantage and could do so. There might be certain bylaws to protect such an action, but none have been reported publicly yet. It's doubtful that the non-football playing members would want to give up any automatic NCAA berths just because the football schools forced them out. In today’s "sue first" society, the non-football schools would certainly fight this out to the end.


This is why the most likely scenario for a proactive Big East football would be to simply leave and form a new conference. the money they would make by having a football and basketball television contract would be enough to put aside any loss of an automatic birth. So the league would consist of these members: Miami, Syracuse, Boston College, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, UConn (2005), WVU and VA Tech.

8 schools, All sports.

But we all know WHY conferences such as the ACC are considering expansion: to get to 12 teams and to reap the benefits (10 million of them) of a conference championship game. This is where it could get real interesting. During all the recent expansion talk, there is one point that hasn’t made its’ way to the surface yet: Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson hold all the cards.

Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech have been the most vocal regarding expansion over the past decade. ACC commissioner John Swofford sees the advantages and is pushing hard for ACC expansion.

So if the ACC schools, other than Miami, Clemson and Georgia Tech vote against expansion, what is to stop these 3 football-first schools from leaving the ACC?

One could argue that combining these 3 schools with the football playing members of the Big East could result in an all-sports conference that would be superior to either the current Big East or ACC.

North:
Boston College
UConn
Syracuse
Rutgers
Temple
Pitt

South:
WVU
VA Tech
Georgia Tech
Clemson
Miami
Florida State



And where would that leave the ACC? Helpless.

Maryland
UVA
Duke
UNC
Wake Forest
NC State

Football would fall to near Sunbelt status and the league would lose any chance at a lucrative television contract after 2005, when the existing one expires. The optimist might mention potential replacements like Louisville, Vanderbilt, and even Kentucky. While Kentucky and even Louisville would help basketball, it wouldn’t help football. Basketball is king and always will be in the ACC, but the conference can’t afford to let football die out altogether. And there are no combinations of CUSA, MAC or Sunbelt teams that the conference would be able to bring in that would help football enough to retain BCS status AND keep basketball at the desired level.

Just look at the candidates and ask yourself this: If the ACC voted against Miami, Syracuse and Boston College, where the only negative would be losing home and home series with all the teams (2 – 6 team divisions would be formed), do you see the ACC bringing in any non-Big East schools? Could Memphis, Louisville, ECU, Marshall, Tulane, USF: A) get the votes, B) be worth bringing in the first place?

So you see where the Miami situation has taken us. It’s that simple: Swofford, FSU, Clemson and Georgia Tech control the future of college football as we know it. Even a quick glance should show the potential “No voters” at UNC, Duke, Wake, NC State, Maryland and UVA that there is only 1 choice. Bring in the 3 Big East schools or face a diminished future.
All that has to be done to make this happen is A) Miami agrees to the move and B) Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech threaten to walk if the 3 schools aren’t added. Its plain and simple.

And what makes this all the more humorous is that the supposed leaks out of the Big East offices about a proactive split between football and basketball schools, even if Miami stays, could make it even easier for the ACC to get it’s 7 votes. If there were no fallback option setup, that would be favorable for FSU, GT and Clemson, chances are the ACC would vote “no”, and the 2 conferences would remain as they were. But with the Big East football members considering a split from St. Johns, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown, Villanova, and Notre Dame, they are further opening the eyes of the ACC presidents as to what the future could hold. Rather than watch their football cash-cow Florida State leave, as well as its large market Georgia Tech program in Atlanta, and Clemson, they will see the light and vote YES to the proposed 3 team expansion. Revenue will increase by many millions, exposure will stretch over the entire east coast and the only negative will be the loss of annual home-and-home series in basketball.

This is the reality. This is the ACC cycle. Those who oppose expansion within the ACC are going to have to put that aside and allow the change to take place. The remaining members can enjoy their annual home and home series at the expense of millions of dollars and the loss of 3 of its teams.





also read...



Part 1: The ACC Power Holders

Part 2: The Ripple Effect in 1A Football Conferences - ACC->Big East->CUSA->WAC

Part 3: The First Move, Proactive & Reactive Conferences, Small But Stable

Part 4: Hoops Galore: A10, CAA, AE, Sunbelt, Missouri Valley conferences react






AND DON'T MISS THE
Grid Of Realignment Possibilities
Image














---------------------------------------------------------------
FOLLOW UP:

Today, May 13th, the ACC has vote "YES" to expand to 12. The only hold up right now is convincing everyone that in addition to Miami, Syracuse AND Boston College should be included, rather than VA Tech.


Congrats to the ACc powers-that-be for stating their case and convincing the majorit ythat this is the right decision.

Now we play the waiting game...
---------------------------------------------------------------


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Last edited by Quinn on Wed Nov 12, 2003 10:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2003 8:32 pm 
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One could argue that combining these 3 schools with the football playing members of the Big East could result in an all-sports conference that would be superior to either the current Big East or ACC.

North:
Boston College
UConn
Syracuse
Rutgers
TEMPLE
Pitt

South:
WVU
VA Tech
Georgia Tech
Clemson
Miami
Florida State



And where would that leave the ACC? Helpless.

Maryland
UVA
Duke
UNC
Wake Forest
NC State


WHY IS TEMPLE INCLUDED IN THIS 12-TEAM ALIGNMENT? WHAT ABOUT MARYLAND OR VIRGINIA?



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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 5:48 am 
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OF COURSE, Maryland would be the preference, as would UVA. But UVA and Maryland have never come close to supporting expansions the way the other 3 have. Just like the ACC is negotiating with Miami while it deals internally with league members, the new conference (BE football members) would be negotiating with FSU, GT and Clemson.

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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 6:55 am 
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Temple is clearly just a plug. Any one of a number of schools would fit. Maryland, Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, So.Miss, Temple, E.Carolina, etc. Louisville might be preferable to bolster hoops:

North:
Boston College
UConn
Syracuse
Rutgers
Pitt
WVU

South:
LOUISVILLE
VA Tech
Georgia Tech
Clemson
Miami
Florida State

Excellent thought that talks of a Big East split may actually accelerate the demise of Big East football by causing the ACC to act preemptively to prevent creation of an alternative home for the ACC football schools.


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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 6:57 am 
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Big East still working on a lucrative counter offer.Split the BE into 2 groups football vs non-football.Get ND into football side.(let them have a big share of their bowl revenue,own tv contract,play 6 out of 8 league games and bring Army and Navy as football only members)plus Louisville all-sports.These are all easy moves except ND move.Also they will play special MSG tournament during Christmas time to generate more money.By the time these guys get through their offer will top the ACC.Also Miami's travel costs will be lessened by the move.


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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 8:17 am 
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IMO, nothing is going to happen until VT has some sort of guarantee they're going to stay in BCS (whether that be in the Big East, ACC, or the SEC, I don't know). The ACC really wants the Miami, Syracuse, BC combo, but may not be able to get it, until VT gets their BCS guarantee. It is for this same reason, IMO, that Texas and Texas A&M haven't bolted anywhere yet, because Texas Tech holds political power to use against those two.
As much as the ACC hates the SEC, the ACC might need the SEC's assistance to pull this deal off (read SEC picking up VT).


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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 9:13 am 
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Quote:
It is for this same reason, IMO, that Texas and Texas A&M haven't bolted anywhere yet, because Texas Tech holds political power to use against those two


As a Texan, I'm not sure where you get that one.
Texas, with Oklahoma & Nebraska, runs the Big 12.
Thanks to the non-even payouts for bowl games & Big Dance appearances, they are raking it in!
Currently in a league with their 2 greatest rivals, why would they be looking to leave? True, the TV deal they have stinks compared to the Big 10, but we can expect ABC or CBS to make a play for them by 2005.

Texas and A&M hold all the political power in this state.
Tech, like, Houston, Rice, TCU, SMU, etc. is an also ran in the political arena. They had good enough teams get itself to the Big 12, but nothing they say has ever affected what the big schools do.


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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 9:25 am 
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DawgnDuck, you're right on target. Va Tech will go balls to the wall to hold this thing up (if they have enough clout to do so) until they get BCS assurance. The SEC picking Va Tech up is probably the perfect solution....but how would they make room for them? That's a really interesting idea. If they could work a switch with a lesser member they'd probably do it, but I don't see how, at least right now.

Re: Va Tech/UConn?

Is it even slightly possible that the ACC would consider Miami and 'Cuse for all sports, and then a football/bball split with Va Tech and UConn? Granted, UConn would be pissed with the money they spent on football, but it might be worth it, and it's better than being left out.

Also a given that Va Tech really wants a home in bball, but hey, better to keep the BCS bid for their football team in the ACC by adding a power team to help make the new tv deal than to be stuck out in a diminished conferece.

This would be the best deal for the ACC. Add two power teams in both major sports without having to go to 14 members.

Before people totally dismiss this (unless it is technically impossible, nothing can be done if it is), bear in mind that not only would both schools, though dissatisfied, still be better off financially with this deal, think about what it would mean for ACC swing votes. In football, you could have the following alignment:

Atlantic Division

Duke
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Virginia
Wake Forest

East Division

Clemson
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Miami
Syracuse
Virginia Tech

This alignment is perfect for the ACC old guard, because travel would be very cheap, and they wouldn't have to battle Va Tech, Miami, FSU, or Clemson to reach the conference title game. The pro-expansion crowd and the new members would have further to travel. Perfect deal for the old guard teams.

The conference as a whole would benefit greatly, because the FB package will be much more attractive for tv with the addition of Va Tech. The southern division match-ups alone would be like bowl games. A few of the northern division games like UVA/Maryland/NC State match-ups would be draws as well, as would cross-divisional match-ups with these teams. The conference also benefits from having Va Tech traveling to games in conference. Better traveling fans than any potential new member.

This alignment is perfect in basketball as well, because all of the key basketball rivalries in the ACC are preserved, which is a major sticking point with fence-straddlers like Maryland and NC State. However, the divisions are still relatively balanced, at least in terms of power teams, with UConn taking Va Tech's place in the south alongside Syracuse. It'd set up a phenomenal title game between UConn/Syracuse and Duke/Maryland/UNC. And the new bball deal would be leaps and bounds ahead of any other deal in the country. Major concerns addressed: BBall greatly enhanced instead of watered down, much better tv deal for bball, old round robin rivalries are unaffected.

So, even though I doubt it will happen, since neither Va tech or UConn will approach the ACC about limited membership, this deal, if they ever considered it, would be better both for the Va Tech and UConn, AND the ACC, and all major concerns (unless there is a technical glitch in there) of key voters in the ACC would be addressed.


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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 10:31 am 
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No way are national champions in bb(UCONN and Syracuse) are going to beg the ACC for anything.If you have 14 teams in the ACC the payouts will go down SIGNIFICANTLY.If the SEC does lose U ARK to the B-12 the choice to replace would be Fla St. not VaTech.


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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 10:36 am 
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Virginia Tech is one of ESPN's best draws - From: http://www.syracuse.com/orangefootball/poststandard/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/1052814975225752.xml

The Big East had the No. 1-rated game on ESPN last season and three of the top seven games. Miami's 28-21 victory over Pittsburgh on Nov. 21 drew a rating of 4.19 (about 3.6 million homes), was ESPN's highest rated game and the most watched ESPN Thursday game in seven years.

The Boston College-Miami game was No. 5 overall on ESPN, and the Marshall-Virginia Tech game was No. 7.

On ESPN2, the Big East had three of the top nine games. They were West Virginia-Virginia Tech (No. 3), Pittsburgh-Virginia Tech (No. 6) and Syracuse-Auburn (No. 9). The No. 1 rated game last season on ESPN2 was Kentucky-Louisville, which was played on a Sunday night.

The ACC did not have a conference game in the top 10 on either network, but did have Florida State-Louisville, which ranked in the top five on ESPN.

No Big East team has done better with ESPN than Virginia Tech, a school sometimes knocked for lacking major television markets or producing strong ratings. Over the last three years, the Hokies have been on ESPN 14 times, among the most televised teams on ESPN. The Hokies, who were on ESPN and ESPN2 six times last season, clearly maximize their exposure by playing games on any night in order to land television spots.



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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 10:42 am 
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KingCal,
GREAT POST! You seem to have nailed the probilities down prettywell. Your post seems to suggest either possiblities A or B on my combined ACC/BE thread.

Personally, I was hoping for a conference that took the best FB schools from both conferences. However, any combination would lead to 5 BCS conferences. This could lead to a play in game for the 3rd at large spot. We would be halfway to a play-off. ;)

FBfan


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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 10:51 am 
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One thing cannot be ingored when realigning all these conference scenarios!--

There is absolutely no love loss between the ACC and ECU. The despise us, and we despise them.

Ive heard plenty about Louisville Cincy and Memphis... as have I about USF and UCF...
Its seems that ECU is likened to Marshall in potential to a newly developed conference. This just isnt close.

If the ACC robs the BE, The BEs first addition should be ECU!! The school is advancing rapidly in size, academics, and athletics. WIth our New Florida Football Coach and Bill Herrion taking out BBall program to an incredible new level... this schools future power and size is immense. It would furiate the Tobacco Road to see the Pirates step up into a better league. To get that presence in the middle of the ACC and the Carolina Markets would be Great for a new Big East.



And seeing as how many scenarios leave WVU and VT in a WorstCaseScenario... We love the current OOC rivalry with WVU and one hell of a rivalry would develope overnight between us and VT.


SO when you people are drawing up your dream conferences, dont forget about spite. Lville Cincy and Memphis are more of a group to consider rather than individual schools... so think somewhere along these lines

VT
WVU
ECU
Marshall
Louisville
Cincy
Memphis
USF
UCF
Pitt
UCONN
Rutgers




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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 11:39 am 
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If part of the reason that any BE school would consider this move is dissappointment with Mike Tranghese, why would they consider a BE counter-proposal that involved him? Particularly if he tried to maintain everything under one umbrella with an array of partial memberships more complicated than currently employed by the BE?

Also, does everyone really believe that the a) th BE FB schools would be THAT helpless after losing some schools that they would bend over further for Notre Dame? I beleive that the FB schools would retain the rights to the BCS berth long enough to form a new league, especially if this goes down before the new BCS negotiations are held. Surely an 8-10 school all-sport conference beginning with any 5-6 BE football schools coud corral enough of the schools commonly discussed here to warrant retaining that berth, even with the same ND clause.

As I type that, however, this comes to mind: Would ND be better off without a 6th BCS conference and do they have the power to deny the remnants of the BE a guaranteed spot in the BCS? How quickly and effectively could another conference try to lay claim to the BCS berth?


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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 11:43 am 
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Quote:


As a Texan, I'm not sure where you get that one.
Texas, with Oklahoma & Nebraska, runs the Big 12.
Thanks to the non-even payouts for bowl games & Big Dance appearances, they are raking it in!
Currently in a league with their 2 greatest rivals, why would they be looking to leave? True, the TV deal they have stinks compared to the Big 10, but we can expect ABC or CBS to make a play for them by 2005.

Texas and A&M hold all the political power in this state.
Tech, like, Houston, Rice, TCU, SMU, etc. is an also ran in the political arena. They had good enough teams get itself to the Big 12, but nothing they say has ever affected what the big schools do.

Au contraire. It was Texas Tech & Baylor who really formed the Big 12. Had UT and A&M had their way, UT would be in the Pac 10 by now, and A&M would be an SEC member. Plus, ACCNole and I had a discussion about this very topic. A TTU fan by the name of Zebbie stopped by and debated with us for awhile, and he brought up a very good point about politics. I'll have to link you to the discussion so you can see it for yourself.


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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2003 12:06 pm 
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ACC might vote today on Miami


By Bob Thomas
Times-Union sports writer

AMELIA ISLAND -- The Atlantic Coast Conference expansion talks are "in the final turn" according to one league source and a vote by the conference's nine presidents on whether to extend invitations to Miami, Boston College and Syracuse or Virginia Tech from the Big East could come as early this afternoon.

"I've heard things are moving in the right direction," Florida State University Board of Trustees chairman John Thrasher said last night. "I'm hopeful that [expansion] can get done."

Clemson president James F. Barker, the chairman of the ACC Council of Presidents, can call for a vote on expansion at any time via teleconference. It will take an affirmative vote of seven presidents to approve expansion.

Duke men's basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski softened his hard-line opposition after yesterday's meeting with ACC commissioner John Swofford, perhaps the best indicator that expansion is gaining momentum.

"I really do not know the direction it will go to, but I do know that the best interests of basketball will be served by those people who make the decision," Krzyzewski said "That's the direction I was most concerned about. ... What I feel confident about is whatever decision is made, we'll be a unified group once it comes out."

Last week Krzyzewski expressed opposition to expansion, which could split the conference into two six-team divisions. Another possibility is three four-team divisions for basketball, which would allow the conference to maintain most of its traditional home-and-home series while preserving geographical rivalries.

"Whether I'm for [expansion] or against it, it doesn't make any difference," Krzyzewski said. "It's a CEO-level decision. I'm for the ACC. At this time I think our CEOs have the information where they will make the decision that's best and I'll follow it."

Krzyzewski's opinion has carried a great deal of weight with Duke president Nan Keohane, who will cast the school's vote. Duke and North Carolina had been on the record as opposed to expansion, while five schools -- FSU, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Maryland and Virginia -- are in favor.

North Carolina State chancellor Marye Anne Fox has been seen as the swing vote, but that may not be the case if Keohane changes her mind.

Regardless, expansion talks appear to have picked up additional momentum through two days of meetings at the Ritz-Carlton Resort among the ACC's top athletic administrators and most influential coaches.

In theory, a decision on expansion before the Big East holds its league meetings May 17-21 at the Ponte Vedra Inn & Club would be beneficial to both sides.

"We have a window of opportunity we've never had," Georgia Tech athletic director Dave Braine said. "If we don't do this, we're missing a great chance. Where is the ACC going to be in 2006 if there are four or five other megaconferences and we're not a megaconference?"

The 2006-07 school year is significant because that is when the next generation of college football's Bowl Championship Series -- the money engine driving expansion talk -- is set to begin. It might include some kind of playoff.

Swofford and league expansion supporters have been building consensus on expansion.

"We're here; we're all together," Swofford said. "This is a subject matter that we all have a great deal of interest in. The process is not complete. I'm not sure when it will be complete. ... I don't think this is something that drags on through the summer. I think this is something that will be determined this month or next. It could be sooner. It could be later."

While a great deal of outside conversation has centered around divisional alignments and scheduling philosophy, those issues probably won't be tackled until the presidents approve expansion. And Swofford has no doubt those issues can and will be resolved.

"One of the great things about our league, once something is determined that this is where we're going, the schools in this league have a great ability to bond together and do it as a whole," he said. "If we were to expand, I don't think there would be obstacles we couldn't overcome."

In order to expand, the ACC needs schools willing to jump on board. Thrasher said members of the FSU board of trustees have been courting Miami president Donna Shalala.

"I think she's there," Thrasher said. "I'm really excited about it."

Staff writer Bob Thomas can be reached at (850) 224-7515 ext. 14, or via e-mail at bthomasjacksonville.com.


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