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PostPosted: Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:48 pm 
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In the year 2030, there will be ~363 million people in the US. That's 70 million more than today in 2004.

Since 1967, the NFL added the following teams:

New Orleans Saints
Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons
Seattle Seahwawks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns (2nd Edition)
Houston Texans

That's 9 teams. Maybe I'm forgeting one.

In that same time, from 1970 to 2004, the US population went from ~200 million to 293 million.

So I predict 8 new teams by 2030 in the following cities:

Los Angeles
Portland, OR
Las Vegas
Oklahoma City
San Antonio
Memphis
Birmingham
Orlando

Other Possibilities:

Salt Lake City
Louisville
Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA
Richmond, VA
2nd LA Team (or Anaheim)
Sacremento

Very outside chances (based on rapid future growth):

Greensboro, NC
Austin, TX
Tucson
Fresno
Boise
Albuquerque
Columbus, OH
Honolulu


Last edited by sportsgeog on Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:23 am 
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This is tougher then it seems because of other factors involved. The recent expansions has been successful but the league has also transplanted several franchises. It appears quality ownership and management is as crucial as market potential.

Also, at what point does the NFL become too big, if at all? Would it work better like college ball in having 40-50 teams covering the landscape and immersing us in one big football frenzy, or should it pursue a minor league system for fear of diluting the top-evel talent? What impact would either scenario have on the college game, the NFL's best partner in promoting the sport? How would the expansion impact realignment?

I still expect a team to relocate to LA before any expansion happens, with my money on Indy. And any further expansion would probably have to come in pairs to even up scheduling. So perhaps in lieu my saying the league will expand here, here and here, allow me to simply rank the cities that I think would do well supporting the league.

Memphis and Birmingham would, IMO battle it out for the next lucrative southeastern franchise. Both have aging, college oriented stadiums, with Memphis featuring more use out of their venue to justify an overhaul. Birmingham might have more reason to pursue this, though, as a last gasp effort to pry some attention and money away from Atlanta.

San Antonio and Oklahoma City would vie for the "southwestern" spot. I think San Antonio would work really well, and would create an attractive in-state rivalry that conference seperation doesn't allow now. Plus with growing appeal among Hispanics and considerations for pro teams in Mexico, this would seem very attractive.

Salt Lake and Las Vegas are contenders for a western slot. Las Vegas seems luke warm in supporting it's minor league teams, and I feel tourists would be less inclined to help out with a Sunday fan fest compared to dropping in on a midweek MLB contest. SLC is striving to compete with Denver for national appeal, while still maintaining a semblance of a true family oriented community. Sounds like a safe haven for pro sports, and the community has supported college football very well.

The other niche I see the NFL trying to fill, or better yet emulate, is something that could fit in with the Black and Blue division. Big 10 country. Ohio valley. Possibly Louisville/Frankfurt.

I shall ponder, more but something tells me of your original 8 I'll agree with...
LA
Birmingham
San Antonio
OKC
Memphis
Portland

From there I'd project SLC over Vegas and Louisville over Orlando.

Another outside possibility: Hartford. Almost lured the Patriots away from Boston, they could add on to the new Rentschler field for UConn, large market and big on pro ball.




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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 8:33 pm 
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By 2020 I see NFL adding 8 Teams to go to 4 divisions 5 teams each.

Birmingham-Yes
Los Angeles-Yes 2 Teams
Portland, OR-Needs One Bad
Las Vegas-Sorry No Way still to much gambling
Oklahoma City-Yes Oklahoma Outlaws
San Antonio-Oh Good Yes Number 1 expansion choice can you say gunslingers.
Memphis-Yes
Orlando-No Isn't 3 teams enough.
Salt Lake City-Yes

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:57 pm 
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Here's what the populations of these metro areas/markets will be in 2030 if the current growth trends continue into the future:

Los Angeles (21.9 million)
Portland, OR (3.1 million)
Las Vegas (3.4 million)
Oklahoma City (1.6 million)
San Antonio (2.6 million)
Memphis (1.6 million)
Birmingham (1.4 million)
Orlando (3.0 million)

Other Possibilities:

Salt Lake City (2.3 million)
Louisville (1.6 million)
Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA (2.0 million) -- when will this metro get at least 1 major sports team?
Richmond, VA (1.5 million)
2nd LA Team (or Anaheim) (21.9 million)
Sacremento (3.0 million)
Hartford (1.4 million)

Very outside chances (based on rapid future growth):

Greensboro, NC (1.9 million)
Austin, TX (2.5 million)
Tucson (1.4 million)
Fresno (1.4 million)
Boise (0.9 million)
Albuquerque (1.1 million)
Columbus, OH (2.5 million)
Honolulu (1.0 million)
Grand Rapids, MI (1.8 million)


Last edited by sportsgeog on Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2004 10:22 am 
Press in Birmingham, Ala. reporting that the upper deck to Legion Field has been closed off by the Parks and Rec. Dept. Now considered unsafe, the loss of the 9,000 upper level bleachers reduces capacity to 72,000, and the notion is that today an announcement will be made that relinquishes the Tide from future obligations to play in the downgraded facility.

With at least one columnist suggesting the venue should essentially be abandoned, I'm curious to see what this does to the City's desire for large sporting events. Indications are the City and State should cease any serious improvement plans and start encouraging the Blazers to consider an on-campus facility. Then, with revenue falling below operational costs, the facility could be razed.

Another new, similar size venue is considered doubtful for the near future unless UAB stays and both Auburn and Alabama agree to play one game each at that facility (not unlikely with a permamnent 12th game) and if they can begin luring bowl games or the SEC championship game. That's a tall order for that community though.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2004 9:57 pm 
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Anything is fine with me as long as Indianapolis loses the Colts.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2004 8:59 am 
That's fine.

Baltimore lost the Colts, then got the Ravens.

Cleveland lost the Browns, which became the Ravens, and got the new Browns.

Houston lost the Oilers, and got the Texans.

St. Louis lost the Cardinals and got the Rams.

Oakland lost the Raiders, and then got them back.

LA lost the Rams and the Raiders, but they will get another team eventually.

With the exception of LA, every city that used to have a pro football team, then lost one, got one back.

If Indy loses the Colts, then Indy would get an expansion team within 10 to 15 years.


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:23 pm 
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Location: Louisville, KY
AFC West
Seattle
Oakland
Los Angeles
San Diego
Denver

AFC South
Houston
Nashville
Miami
Jacksonville
Oklahoma

AFC North
Indianapolis
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Kansas City

AFC East
Buffalo
New England
Baltimore
New York Jets
Virginia

NFC West
San Francisco
Portland
Anaheim
Utah
Arizona

NFC South
New Orleans
Birmingham
Dallas
Louisville
San Antonio

NFC North
Detroit
Green Bay
Chicago
Minnesota
Saint Louis

NFC East
Washington
New York Giants
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
Carolina



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PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2005 1:19 pm 
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It maybe possible that the NFL has 40 teams in the future, but I think that they should add a franchise in Puerto Rico (just like the Puerto Rico Islanders of the United Soccer Legue for soccer, which the team's stadium is at the Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium in Bayamón). If Puerto Rico has that franchise, the future home stadiums will be either at the Hiram Bithorn Stadium in San Juan or at the Roberto Clemente Walker Stadium in Carolina, P.R. Those are my comments for an opinion but I hope Puerto Rico will have one someday in the future.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2005 1:34 pm 
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Location: Portland! (and about time!)
If the nation grows under current demographic trends, will the NFL market grow at all?

In a growing overall population, the Hispanic PERCENTAGE doubled, or more than doubled, in 10 years.

Previous generations have assimilated, more or less (some places more than others). The folks born here tend more to assimilate. There's still a shift over borders as well, and that's where the questions seem to arise.

You can also check out the soccer allegiances up and around. Chivas USA vs Galaxy last Wednesday was played at Memorial Coliseum rather than the Home Depot Center, in a doubleheader with Chivas de Guadalajara vs Club America, and a mere 88,000 showed up. Meanwhile, LA can't seem to catch an NFL groove.

I don't have conclusive evidence, other than to say that NFL TV viewership has been edging slightly downward for several years now (the decline is measured by about a tenth a year, though it is suspected to be replaced by a Sunday sports bar culture), while attendance has increased... with the stipulation that many of the newer stadiums have less capacity than what they replace, meaning there might be an upper bound to this growth a little bit down the road. I'm more inclined to think that we're witnessing a "maturing" business rather than a "declining" one at this point, but my point is to question whether it keeps up with population growth, or not.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:46 am 
Somebody just forgot the Philadelphia had a NFL team.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:42 pm 
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Oops . . .

Let's slide Tampa Bay into Birmingham's spot in the NFC South, and then put Philadelphia into the NFC East. The Titans and Falcons probably would try to block a team in Birmingham anyway.



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2005 12:35 am 

Quote:
AFC West
Seattle
Oakland
Los Angeles
San Diego
Denver

AFC South
Houston
Nashville
Miami
Jacksonville
Oklahoma

AFC North
Indianapolis
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Kansas City

AFC East
Buffalo
New England
Baltimore
New York Jets
Virginia

NFC West
San Francisco
Portland
Anaheim
Utah
Arizona

NFC South
New Orleans
Birmingham
Dallas
Louisville
San Antonio

NFC North
Detroit
Green Bay
Chicago
Minnesota
Saint Louis

NFC East
Washington
New York Giants
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
Carolina



Nice job, but let me make some changes...

1. All teams stay in current conferences
2. Northeastern U.S. will have 4 divisions (2 each conference) to balance out the schedule format
3. NFL needs to try smaller markets (hey, it works for Green Bay)

AFC Northeast
Buffalo
Hartford
New England
Providence

AFC East
Baltimore
Harrisburg
New York Jets
Pittsburgh

AFC North Central
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Indianapolis
Milwaukee

AFC South Central
Houston
Kansas City
Oklahoma
Tennessee

AFC Southeast
Columbia SC
Jacksonville
Miami
Richmond

AFC West
Denver
Los Angeles
Oakland
San Diego

NFC Northeast
Albany
Portland ME
Rochester
Syracuse

NFC East
Philadelphia
New York Giants
Washington
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton

NFC North Central
Chicago
Detroit
Green Bay
Minnesota

NFC South Central
Dallas
New Orleans
St. Louis
San Antonio

NFC Southeast
Atlanta
Carolina
Louisville
Tampa Bay

NFC West
Anaheim
Northwest (Seattle-Portland)
San Francisco
Southwest (Arizona-Salt Lake)


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:12 am 

Quote:


Nice job, but let me make some changes...

1. All teams stay in current conferences
2. Northeastern U.S. will have 4 divisions (2 each conference) to balance out the schedule format
3. NFL needs to try smaller markets (hey, it works for Green Bay)

AFC Northeast
Buffalo
Hartford
New England
Providence

AFC East
Baltimore
Harrisburg
New York Jets
Pittsburgh

AFC North Central
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Indianapolis
Milwaukee

AFC South Central
Houston
Kansas City
Oklahoma
Tennessee

AFC Southeast
Columbia SC
Jacksonville
Miami
Richmond

AFC West
Denver
Los Angeles
Oakland
San Diego

NFC Northeast
Albany
Portland ME
Rochester
Syracuse

NFC East
Philadelphia
New York Giants
Washington
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton

NFC North Central
Chicago
Detroit
Green Bay
Minnesota

NFC South Central
Dallas
New Orleans
St. Louis
San Antonio

NFC Southeast
Atlanta
Carolina
Louisville
Tampa Bay

NFC West
Anaheim
Northwest (Seattle-Portland)
San Francisco
Southwest (Arizona-Salt Lake)


I like this concept nfl future.

But I think they should go after small markets all throughout the USA. I think the NFL should expand to 80 teams within the next 200 years and take in these cities:

NFC New England:

New England
Manchester
Providence
New Haven-Bridgeport
Worchester

NFC Mid Atlantic

New York
Washington
Albany
Rochester
Philadelphia

NFC South Atlantic

Virginia Beach-Norfolk
Charlotte
Atlanta
Tampa Bay
Orlando

NFC South Central

Dallas
New Orleans
Oklahoma City
Little Rock
Memphis

NFC Lakes

Detroit
Chicago
Green Bay
Dayton
Columbus

NFC Prairie

Minnesota
St. Louis
Des Moines
Wichita
Peoria

NFC Mountain

Salt Lake City
Albuquerque
Las Vegas
Colorado Springs
Phoenix

NFC Pacific

San Francisco
Los Angeles
Seattle
Fresno
Sacremento

AFC New England

Boston
Hartford
Springfield
Portland, ME
Manchester

AFC Mid Atlantic

New Jersey
Baltimore
Buffalo
Syracuse
Pittsburgh

AFC South Atlantic

Richmond
Raliegh-Durham
Charleston, SC
Jacksonville
Miami

AFC South Central

Nashville
Birmingham
San Antonio
Houston
Tulsa

AFC Lakes

Cleveland
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
Grand Rapids
Ft. Wayne

AFC Prairie

Kansas City
Rockford
Madison
Omaha
Davenport

AFC Mountain

Denver
El Paso
Tucson
Boise
Reno

AFC Pacific

Portland
Oakland
Los Angeles
San Diego
Sacremento


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