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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2014 12:16 pm 
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Bears General Manager Phil Emery is not a believer in taking a quarterback late in the draft.

Emery says he has studied the development of quarterbacks in the NFL and found that teams that draft quarterbacks in the late round rarely turn those players into franchise starters.

“I just did a little study. It’s very interesting,” Emery said. “That developmental theory doesn’t hold a whole lot of water. There’s entire classes of quarterbacks, since ’06, I went back and looked at from [Jay Cutler's draft class] on — when people say developmental quarterbacks, OK, so who has gotten developed? There isn’t a single quarterback after the third round since 2006 that has been a long-term starter. So you’re either developing thirds, and most of them have been wiped out of the league. So to get a quality quarterback, you’ve got to draft them high. That 2012 class is a blip on the radar that’s unusual, highly unusual.

“That 2012 class is a blip on the radar that’s unusual, highly unusual,” Emery said. “Most of the starters in this league come from the first and second round. So that’s where you need to take a quarterback. So when you talk about quarterback every year, they have to be somebody that you truly believe will beat out the second and third quarterback that you perceive on your roster. And if not, history shows that you shouldn’t make that pick.”
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I agree 100% with him. Everybody brings up Brady as if the exception disproves the rule. To be a successful, longterm QB you need to be drafted in the first or second round (with the rare exceptions like Wilson, Foles, and Brady). "Developmental" QBs just do not seem to ever pan out...

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PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 9:48 am 
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i don't challenge the results of his little study, but I wonder if guys chosen in later rounds never get a chance.

I have seen guys come into camp who appear to out-perform the guy chosen early in the draft, but these guys get cut, and wind up on the bench for another team.

In some cases, I think teams refuse to give these guys much playing time,
because they need THEIR GUY to "win" the competition to justify the GM choosing him wiht the earrly round draft pick.

I harken back to watching football in the late 60s and early 70s when I was a kid,
and the expectation was that QBs typically didn't mature until they'd been in the NFL maybe 4 years.

So they would often carry a clip board (like Aaron Rodgers, stuck behind Brett Favre) for a while and watch and learn.
Anymore the teams are set up with a salary cap, that prevents them from having any such patience with a body on the roster.
I think THAT sort of thing is what leads to his conclusion that later picks are just no good.


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