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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 8:12 am 
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JPSchmack wrote:
SAC to Vegas:SAC to Vegas makes 100% sense. My guess is that Stern basically is telling the Maloofs it won't happen if they are seriously looking at Anaheim, instead.


JAC/MIN to LA:
Apparently, there's an LA stadium in the works, so either Jacksonville or Minnesota is basically a lock to end up there. It's hard to imagine the Vikings leaving, but with the Metrodome situation, the need for a new stadium, and no progress towards it, it could be looming.

Jacksonville was probably the biggest mistake in the history of the NFL. That should have been Baltimore's team to begin with. They are LA-bound.

Athletics to San Jose:
The Giants are fighting any potential A's to SJ move. That could be a tough move to make.

Tampa to Portland
This would probably be a fight from Seattle for a number of reasons. Putting the two teams in the same division would not be a good idea. Like the Mets/Yankees, Dodgers/Angels, Giants/As, Portland would need to go to the NL West.

And the NL already has 16 teams. So you'd have to swap either Arizona or Colorado, and both have fought MLB's requests to put them in AL multiple times in the past.

Tampa Rays to San Antonio:
MLB missed a golden opportunity with the Rangers situation. What they should have done was used the Rangers bankruptcy to get a team in San Antonio when no Texas owner was around to fight it.

It made perfect sense, because it would help everyone in the AL: The AL East would go from 5 teams to 4. And from three powers to two. It would give Texas 9 more games in their time zone. Boston and the Yankees would now have nine more road games outside their division each, which helps ticket sales in six cities every year.

Likewise, the current Mets situation would be a golden opportunity to add a team in New Jersey if ever it was going to happen.

Orlando
Orlando would not be good because the Florida teams draw very poorly. Between the weather and the fact that most people would rather pay spring training prices to watch games in Feb and March when the weather is nicer than regular season games in more extreme weather.

If anything, MLB needed to do this:
Move Oakland to San Antonio during the Texas bankruptcy.
Award expansion teams to Portland and Memphis
Arizona and Colorado go to the AL West

AL East: BAL, BOS, NYY, TOR
AL Central: CLE, DET, CHI, MIN
AL South: KC, TEX, San Antonio, TB
AL West: LAA, SEA, ARZ, COL
NL East: NYM, PHI, WAS, PIT
NL Central: STL, CHI, MIL, CIN
NL South: ATL, FLA, HOU, Memphis
NL West: SD, LAD, SF, Portland

NHL
The NHL's issues are complex, complicated, and widely discussed on the HFboards' business forum. Check it out, some good stuff there.

Hamilton
Hamilton is not happening. For three major reasons.
#1 - The potential Hamilton owner (Blackberry mogul Jim Balsillie) is a scourge to the NHL. He's tried to hijack three franchises and move them to Hamilton via back-door shenanigans. Each time, getting worse and worse:
Pittsburgh - kicking the tires before the NHL said there's a seven-year no-relocate clause attached to all team sales.
Nashville - selling season tickets in Hamilton while trying to buy the team.
Phoenix - conspiring with the Coyotes owner to a bankruptcy which violates NHL bylaws so he could buy them and move them to Hamilton without league approval.

The NHL now has a "Over our dead body" stance with JB.

#2 - Buffalo. The Sabres would take a massive hit from a Hamilton team. The Sabres owner projected a 15-25% of their tickets come from the Canadian side of the border. All these people and their children would basically become Hamilton fans. So any "health issues" for a franchise being solved by moving a team to Hamilton would be a zero-sum game, because the Sabres would then become a poor, needy market.

#3 - MLSE. The ownership conglomerate of the Toronto Maple Leafs will fight to the death to keep a team from going to Hamilton. They have claimed they have veto rights to Hamilton. And when the NHL said "No, you don't" the Leafs said "Well, if you need us to prove it in court, we'll take you on as well." They are the giant elephant in the room when it comes to Hamilton.

Seattle
Minor point, but Seattle has never had an NHL team that actually played. But they did almost get one. Seattle might be one of the rare situations where a local team has no disagreement with a team entering their market. Vancouver has a stable fan base. They won't lose many fans because of the Canada-US thing. Given they have arguably the worst travel in the league, they'd welcome Seattle replacing Minnesota in their division if it was a eastern team (Atlanta?) moving there.

Phoenix to Seattle, with Colorado swapping divisions makes some sense as well.

Quebec and Winnipeg
No brainers. These should be candidates #1 and #2a or #2b in any relocation discussion. ALSO, Gary Bettman has a deep history of awarding teams to markets which either (a) lost NHL franchises or (b) were teased with getting one (Hamilton notwithstanding)

The HF Canada contingient hates on Bettman for "allowing" Winnipeg and Quebec to move and ushering in Southern Expansion, but (a) Bettman was hired to carry out the NHL's southern expansion goals after the previous guy started it (b) he rubber stamped the moves after no local ownership group was capable of retaining the teams and the local municipalities would not build arenas, and (c) the FOUR teams Bettman added were either cities that lost NHL teames once: Minnesota (North Stars) and Atlanta (Flames), or had a team about to move there, only to have it fall through: Columbus (Whalers) and Nashville (Devils).

The one city you are missing for the NHL is Houston.
Teased with the Oilers, Houston makes the NHL better in a variety of ways:

#1 - Houston is one of the largest markets without an NHL team, which helps TV negotiations.

#2 - Dallas gets a rival. They have one of the lowest number of games in their own time zone based on being in a division with LA, SJ, ANA and PHX. A Dallas-Houston rivalry would help both teams draw well, and by extension, Austin (Texas Stars) and San Antonio (becomes Houston affiliate) would basically create battle-lines across the state among hockey fans in both the NHL and AHL. It would really lead to an increased interest in a very large state.

#3 - Depending on whom moves there, it would make travel better for everyone.


The NHL's ultimate scenario for improving their league based on team locations would be:

PHX to Houston (NHL says "Southern expansion didn't fail" and goes to HOU. Gives up Jets name/history as part of the deal)
FLA or ATL to Quebec
Winnipeg and Seattle as expansion teams

Northeast: MON, OTT, QUE, BOS
Great Lakes: TOR, BUF, DET, PIT
Atlantic: NYI, NYR, NJ, PHI
South: TB, CAR, WAS, ATL or FLA

Central: MIN, WIN, CHI, STL
Southwest: DAL, HOU, NASH, CBJ
Pacific: LA, ANA, SJ, COL
Northwest: VAN, SEA, EDM, CAL






Great stuff JB, very insightful. Same to the rest of you for contributing!

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 9:49 am 
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One I forgot to add that I have written about on this site many times before:

NFL

Chargers to Los Angeles
The Chargers want a new stadium in San Diego, but the city has balked in the past. Originally, there was talk about (2) stadiums in LA: one in LA and one in Orange county/Long beach. Now that it appears that 1 stadium is the goal, the Chargers are at bat. There are already many Chargers fans in LA since the Raiders and Rams left. And with a move to nearby LA, you likely retain much of the current SD fanbase. The Chargers in LA would still be the local SD NFL game every week, so the transition would be somewhat seemless on both sides.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 10:14 am 
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I'm a big NHL fan from Pittsburgh originally, and I like what JP has done with some divisions but not others.
Columbus really hasn't developed any rivalries yet, but I think they form a a nice cluster with PIT, BUF, and TOR. You can drive from Columbus to PIT in 2 hours, BUF in 3.
I would keep DET in the Central with STL and CHI. MIN Wild have complained about their travel and the North Stars used to be part of that cluster (the old Chuck Norris Division).
So if we go to 32 I like:

QUE*, MTL, OTT, BOS
TOR, BUF, PIT, CBJ
NYR, NYI, NJD, PHL
WSH, CAR, TB, ATL or FLA

MIN, DET, CHI, STL
NASH, DAL, HOU*, COL
ANA, LA, SJ, PHX
EDM, CAL, VAN, SEA*

Basically relocate either Atlanta or Florida, and add 2 expansion teams - new / relocated teams to Quebec, Houston, and Seattle
I like Houston for their TV market, Quebec for huge local support, and Seattle forms a nice tight geogrphic cluster with VAN and the 2 Alberta teams.
Honestly I don't have a feel for whether Seattle is a hockey town. Winnepeg would certainly draw to the extent possible
(especially with hockey being the only game in town, but it's just SO SMALL vs. about 4 million in Seattle)


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:22 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
I'm a big NHL fan from Pittsburgh originally, and I like what JP has done with some divisions but not others.
Columbus really hasn't developed any rivalries yet, but I think they form a a nice cluster with PIT, BUF, and TOR. You can drive from Columbus to PIT in 2 hours, BUF in 3.
I would keep DET in the Central with STL and CHI. MIN Wild have complained about their travel and the North Stars used to be part of that cluster (the old Chuck Norris Division).
So if we go to 32 I like:

QUE*, MTL, OTT, BOS
TOR, BUF, PIT, CBJ
NYR, NYI, NJD, PHL
WSH, CAR, TB, ATL or FLA

MIN, DET, CHI, STL
NASH, DAL, HOU*, COL
ANA, LA, SJ, PHX
EDM, CAL, VAN, SEA*

Basically relocate either Atlanta or Florida, and add 2 expansion teams - new / relocated teams to Quebec, Houston, and Seattle
I like Houston for their TV market, Quebec for huge local support, and Seattle forms a nice tight geogrphic cluster with VAN and the 2 Alberta teams.
Honestly I don't have a feel for whether Seattle is a hockey town. Winnepeg would certainly draw to the extent possible
(especially with hockey being the only game in town, but it's just SO SMALL vs. about 4 million in Seattle)


I agree with virtually all of this. However, Detroit has been clamoring to be in the Eastern conference for decades now, and it's widely believed they "have dibs" if anyone goes from West to East. As you said, it's still CBJ's infancy and as the "new guys" they wouldn't pass DET on the waiting list to move East.

If anything, I think you'd see Pittsburgh go West before Columbus goes east. (Although, the Crosby/Ovechkin marketing now makes that unlikely for the next 5-7 years.

PHX and ATL are your two most likely relocation candidates.... but personally, I think that the team that REALLY needs to move is Florida.


And of course, I also think the league would be better served adopting a MLB-style alignment. In MLB and NFL, the most popular games are division rivals and local rivals. For example, the Dodgers biggest draws are San Francisco, San Diego.... and the Angels. The Mets sellouts are Philly and Atlanta... and the Yankees. Cubs: Cardinals, Brewers and White Sox. You get the idea.

In baseball, they play SELECT interleague opponents and ignore the rest; and have divisional rivalries with teams in the same time zone that are further apart. They don't play EVERYONE in interleague because they limit the number of games to make interleague "special."

The NHL on the other hand, has their local rivals and division rivals as the SAME TEAMS. There's 24 division games, and teams pretty much have 0, 1, or 2 other "rivals" they play outside of the division. PIT/WAS, WAS/PHI, NYR/BOS, DET/TOR, CBJ/PIT, MIN/CHI, and that's pretty much it.

The NHL doesn't have the scheduling issues MLB does where MLB has to limit interleague play six total series, and two vs your marquee rival.

They could set up divisions that divide each Conference into two divisions of eastern teams and a West division. They could have Campbell East play Wales East, and Campbell East never play Wales West or Wales Central.

For example, Campbell East: NYI, PHI, WAS, ATL, TB. Campbell West: NYR, NJ, PIT, CAR, FLA

Familiarity breeds contempt. The Mets and Braves had a heated rivalry based on the Mets finishing second to ATL in 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 with late-season "heart ripped out" series' in ATL each year (specifically the 1998 series in which Cox threw a 20-game winner and 16-game winner IN RELIEF specifically to keep the Mets from getting the wild card; and the 2001 post-9/11 comeback being thwarted by Jordan's grand slam), plus the 1999 NLCS and John Rocker; Piazza addressing Larry Wayne Jones, Jr. by his legal first name, and the Mets fans chanting Larry every chance they get; Larry naming his son "Shea," etc.

You put ATL in the Campbell East and when they fight for playoff spots, you'll have rivalries form. Now instead of 24 marquee games of divisional/regional rivals, you have 36.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:37 pm 
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Location: Portland! (and about time!)
I saw the Kings to Anaheim rumors, then someone came out with this funky scenario where the NBA contract the CLIPPERS and New Orleans, meaning Sacramento can move on into Anaheim. I don't buy it.

Contraction is an owners' ploy. I don't buy it.

Now... a little set of Northwest updates.

MLB to Portland? Scrap it. The money's not there (or, more important, they don't want to spend it). The city got Merritt Paulson to fork over 2/3rds the cost of a minor renovation to make PGE Park fit for MLS. The city expects anyone putting in MLB to do the same. I'm not holding my breath. Oh, one more thing... there's no sales tax in Oregon. That makes this doubly hard.

Seattle... there's this little issue called Initiative 91. The citizens of Seattle passed it just as the Sonics last arena drive in the city gained steam. Basically, the city wants to profit from the building with TEAM revenues if they build the arena for the team. Key Arena was a serious wedge job into the old Seattle Centre Coliseum structure, which limits all sorts of revenues in the building... plus it can't hold more than 11,000 for hockey, and not in a comfortable alignment at that. This is why the state was forced to consider a suburban location to try to keep the Sonics (Renton- the resting place of Jimi Hendrix), that died a grisly death, and the state has a massive budget shortfall to close.

If you're looking at NHL (and Vancouver would LOVE a NW partner), your options are the Rose Garden (where the Blazers aren't about to share) or the Tacoma Dome (simply all wrong- even though you can put it in there, it's never given staying power to the MISL Stars or two lower-level hockey teams, because it's designed to accomodate outdoor sports and it's staffed to get concerts).

I can't imagine an NBA team trying to go back to Key Arena. I can't imagine the Maloofs trying to enter Las Vegas without pushback from casinos, even if a site for an arena is already fenced off. Kansas City is the stellar option. I'm not totally sure this final push won't cause Sacramento to finally give in and get an arena done... or maybe West Sacramento near Raley Field?


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 23, 2011 11:08 am 
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http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_d ... nhl-324921

NHL players wary on Winnipeg? Can Atlanta rally for Thrashers?

ESPN's Pierre LeBrun reported over the weekend that the Atlanta Thrashers are at a rather perilous moment in their franchise's brief history:

The ownership situation is getting urgent in Atlanta. We were told this weekend that the league is trying mighty hard to find a new owner who's willing to keep the team in Atlanta.

The league's sole focus right now is to keep the team in Atlanta and given its ability to find new owners in Tampa, Buffalo and Phoenix, it's not unrealistic to think the league won't be able to pull it off again. However, should a new owner not be found in the next six to eight weeks, we're told the Thrashers could indeed be up for relocation and Winnipeg would very likely be the new home.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 23, 2011 2:52 pm 
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dbackjon wrote:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_daddy/post/NHL-players-wary-on-Winnipeg-Can-Atlanta-rally-;_ylt=An1plTBER9Y68k5dMla8pkV7vLYF?urn=nhl-324921

NHL players wary on Winnipeg? Can Atlanta rally for Thrashers?

ESPN's Pierre LeBrun reported over the weekend that the Atlanta Thrashers are at a rather perilous moment in their franchise's brief history:

The ownership situation is getting urgent in Atlanta. We were told this weekend that the league is trying mighty hard to find a new owner who's willing to keep the team in Atlanta.

The league's sole focus right now is to keep the team in Atlanta and given its ability to find new owners in Tampa, Buffalo and Phoenix, it's not unrealistic to think the league won't be able to pull it off again. However, should a new owner not be found in the next six to eight weeks, we're told the Thrashers could indeed be up for relocation and Winnipeg would very likely be the new home.



Seems shady how the NHL almost seems to prey on giddy potential owners buying failing teams rather than relocation. They make the argument that a new owner can turn things around, but that isn't usually the case these days. Charlotte got an expansion team int he NBA to replace their team that left...and Charlotte is not exactly been a money-making opportunity.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 23, 2011 10:52 pm 
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Fox Sports piece on possible relocation of the A's and Rays:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/oakl ... ion-022211

I'm not sure what MLB would do if the two franchises went under-I'd guess Milwaukee is back to the AL, and San Diego, Arizona, and Colorado draw straws.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 24, 2011 10:42 am 
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So Ken Rosenthal tells us contraction is no the answer, based solely on the rationale that "the MLB Player's Union wouldn't like it".
Oh, OK !!!
He's been drinking the Kool-Aid for so long, that he thinks it makes sense for Albert Pujols to fell insulted by a $200 million contract offer....
(I live in St. Louis... you can't possibly ask a player to perform any better than Albert has for the last 10 seasons, but why exactly does a player need $25-$30 mill/year ?)
This all comes back to driving up ticket prices, and then somehow it's the fans fault that the owners can't exercise cost containment.

Free Agency has destroyed the competitive balance in baseball.
Free agency seems fair ot the players, as the reserve clause was "restraint of trade".
But the baseball owners have to implement a salary cap, and aqttempts at anything like that keeps getting undermined by the big market Yankees, et. al.
The players union turns a blind eye to the fact that the smaller markets can't afford a $200 million payroll, and competition is destroyed.
How about a salary cap (that limits how much talent one franchise can stockpile), and a salary floor (that ensures that all owners are making a good faith effort to pay players
a marketable wage and field a competitive team?) The first is pro-owner, the second is pro-union.

Both salary cap and salary floor are tied to overall revenue, so the players continue to get a fair slice as baseball profits ggorw or fluctuate.

Something like this was implemented in hockey after the 1-year stoppage. It was the best thing that could've happened for the long-term health of that sport.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:14 am 
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Talk of Seattle NBA revival

http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/blo ... plate.html



Also, it's an older movie, but one I enjoyed watching a year or so ago and thought about recently.

http://sonicsgate.org

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2011 9:38 pm 
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Location: Portland! (and about time!)
The Sacramento Kings (using sports radio as the prime marketing tool) were enticing fans to Wednesday's game against Portland with $35 lower bowl seats.

Not in Sacramento. Portland. Just thought I'd put that out there.

Time to step back.

The real push for Kings-to-Anaheim is the arena manager in Anaheim. Thing is, Honda Center gets plenty of concerts. They get enough business...

...so I'm coming to the conclusion that the Ducks are in trouble.

Thing is, since my return to Portland, I've been able to watch more NBA. Stark reality is, in watching games from large swaths of the Midwest and South, even into places like Philadelphia: throw out the attendance numbers. They lie. It's bad. VERY bad.

BTW, it's worse with the NHL. Frankly, I think they will lose teams.

Primarily, it is the economy. Duh.

One function of this: if you find yourself saying "all city X has to do is build a facility," please perform your own facepalm. The Tea Party and the liberal retaliation coming about both intersect at less taxes for stadia and arenas.

Oh, the other dilemma: cut ticket prices, then cut salaries. Cut salaries, lose more kids to football... maybe world football, too. Possibly even baseball, though if you really want to see a sport with support miles wide and millimeters deep, there you have it. Check out sports video game sales sometime.

In my last post, I asserted that NBA contraction talk was little more than a bargaining chip. This year, probably. After that, eeeeeee...


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 06, 2011 9:00 pm 
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I don't know if cutting salaries will cause kids to start playing football or soccer or baseball-if one makes "only" $3 million a year playing basketball instead of $7 million, how likely is an athlete to switch sports? Not all NBA players have NFL bodies, and hitting a baseball at a high level isn't an easy skill to pick up. You might find some basketball players who could play soccer professionally, but most wouldn't be able to run around the pitch for 90 minutes. If nothing else, college players stay in school for one more year and some of the college game's traditional powers can make deeper runs into the tournament (are you listening, John Calipari?).


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 12:15 pm 
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Been some Chargers/SD city meetings about a new downtown stadium. Seems like if they dont' get it, they'd be off to LA

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 6:40 pm 
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Having lived agonizingly through the theft of the Baltimore Colts by Indianoplace, I sympathize with the San Diego fans, but they better get their act in gear soon. The Baltimore civic leaders did nothing but talk about a new stadium in the 1970's-early '80's. Funny how they found the means to do it after the Colts were out the barn door.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 1:30 pm 
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westwolf wrote:
Having lived agonizingly through the theft of the Baltimore Colts by Indianoplace, I sympathize with the San Diego fans, but they better get their act in gear soon. The Baltimore civic leaders did nothing but talk about a new stadium in the 1970's-early '80's. Funny how they found the means to do it after the Colts were out the barn door.


Quite true. Sad state in SD. Padres have little money to keep good players, so even a good year hurts them as there better players increase value. Lost NBA. No NHL. And Chargers are eying LA to some extent.

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