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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 5:48 pm 
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Any teams that you believe in? Any players you think are greatness? The tourney is the biggest call for sudden expertism that I wholeheartedly buy into each year.

My contribution to your brackets (buyer beware) is that tourney coaches are often safe bets. Michigan State's Tom Izzo, WV's Bob Huggins, Texas's Rick Barnes, Kansas's coach, UNC's coach Roy Williams, and Duke's Coach K, ususally win at least a couple games. Teams heavy in senior leadership usually do pretty well. Teams with tourney experience in the last couple of seasons often are good dark horses for the first few rounds. UConn, Louisville, Syracuse, and Memphis play BB in styles that many teams just don't see too often. I usually take them unless their opponent is both good, veteran, and familiar.

Just like in football the bigger conference schools usually win due to a greater depth of taller atheletes. Teams with strong inside games (UNC usually) can destroy teams with one or two guys in the post over 6'7". Teams like Louisville and Memphis with seemingly endless benchs of NBA and CBA caliber swingmen are usually too much for the small school team with 1-2 stars who carried them throughout the year.

The 8 vs. 9 matchup and 7 vs. 10 are usually good matchups for upsets, because usually the 7 or 8 seed is a big conference team that imploded late vs. a small conference killer that is very consistent.

What teams are you on board with this year? I think UNC might win 2 games, but I think they will not win it all. Agree? No? Missouri is an interesting pick to make a deep run, IMO. They won the Big 12 conference and have a senior laden team. They run, shoot 3's, and play D. Not sold on Michigan State as a great team, but they usually overperform in the tourney and this is Izzo's best team in a while. I think they are due for a good run. I think Syracuse shows a lot of heart and is always tough to prepare for. I am not sold on Uconn. I think they have a little quit in them. 3rd round out. Memphis looks tough again this year and are peaking, but I am not convinced they are good enough. Louisville is interesting. Pittsburgh looks good enough to knock off anyone, but not consistent enough to win it all. Texas hits me as a matchup team --- if the matchup looks good, they'll win. If they get a challenging to bad matchup, they are out. Huggins is due for another good run, but I just haven't seen enough of his team to make me think it will be this year. Not liking the SEC much this year. Am I wrong? Duke usually makes the sweet 16 and this team looks better than the last few. They may not be the most talented, but they play with heart. I think I might jump on FSU as a dark horse. They have a kid who plays with a ton of guts and emotion.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 5:51 pm 
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Also, I think this might be a good year for the MWC, and a bad year for many of the big conferences.

I am sorely tempted to ride Portland State for a couple rounds. Pounder? I need your wisdom!

Anyone seen Utah State?


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 6:07 pm 
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If they don't get screwed out of a spot, I'd watch St. Mary's. They have hung tough with some good teams --- they just happen to be in a conference with Gonzaga. Gonzaga should make a good run. Oklahoma looked dominant, but I wonder if they peaked too early. Kansas overperforms, but I am not sold on that inexperienced team (I wan't last year either though, lol!)

Txas A&M was playing VERY well recently. They might be a good upset pick for a couple of rounds.

I totally don't know what to think of Wake Forest and NDSU. Is Wake consistent enough? Can they beat a top team? How good is NDSU? Obviously I don't see them in Texas. Is this a team to watch? I just have this feeling they may suprise.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 9:04 pm 
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hrmf. No St. Mary's, no creighton, and just Utah and BYU from the MWC. Once more the smaller conferences got screwed. I also am bummed that the smaller schools are playing each other in some of the opening games. I guess if they beat the fringe teams in the big conferences if would open up quetions for the selection committee.

I am kinda dissapointed. I think this bracket could have been much stronger.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 10:08 pm 
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After giving the bracket a quick glance (I'll probably fill it out tomorrow):

I think Xavier could do some damage. They already beat Memphis (#2 seed) and Missouri (#3) so far this year, and were regular season champs in the A-10.

Michigan started out strong with early season wins over UCLA (#6) and Duke (#2), but became more inconsistent as the year went on. I'll have to resist the temptation to pick my school but I do think that they have the capability to beat Clemson and maybe even Oklahoma. Same story with Minnesota, who beat Louisville early but then struggled the rest of the year.

I'm skeptical of Gonzaga whenever they have a high seed. They might win one or two games, but I would not pick them to go farther than that.

I want to do research some teams before I fill this out, namely VCU, Miss State, Dayton, Western Kentucky, Utah, and Utah State. For some reason I feel like the matchups they have, or could have in the second round, warrant a second look.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:08 am 
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My Final Four is UNC, PITT, Memphis, and UConn.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:15 am 
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Thanks bud. Xavier has me pulling my hair out. they look pretty good, but on the same token could get upset in the first round. I can live with my picks but the PSU/ Xavier game at Boise looks like it will be a competitive matchup.

I have gone with Xavier there to protect my bracket. I figure 90% of my bracket competitors will pick Xavier, so even if PSU does pull the upset, I only lose one game/point to 10% of my fellow prognosticators. I think it is usually a bad idea to pick longshots as even if you pinpoint a favorable matchup like this, the darkhorse is still likely to only win 30-40% of the time, while your fellow prognosticators gain on you 60-70% of the time.

Statistically, it doesn't pay to be able to ID what appear to be good games.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:19 am 
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My Final Four is Memphis, Wake, Duke, and UNC, but I still, might balk on Duke.

I think Pitt is more very good than great, I think UCONN Lacks depth and has a little dog in them at the end of games ---although they may just wear down over lack of depth. I like OU alot, but Obama scratched them for a lack of depth and I am inclined to agree.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:29 am 
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dafoeberezin3494 wrote:
I'm skeptical of Gonzaga whenever they have a high seed. They might win one or two games, but I would not pick them to go farther than that.

I want to do research some teams before I fill this out, namely VCU, Miss State, Dayton, Western Kentucky, Utah, and Utah State. For some reason I feel like the matchups they have, or could have in the second round, warrant a second look.

Not sold on the big 10 beyond Tom Izzo and Ohio State's coach ---would not be suprises to see a win there--- but I am Ok with Gonzaga this time. They have been a very consistent defensive team this time around and I can see them making it to UNC and either losing a good game or beating UNC and then losing to the team from the other side. (I picked UNC there to save my bracket). I think they have short travel for their games. I don't expect a collapse this time.

VCU is a nice pick, I have been struggling with that. I think they are the better team but UCLA's coach is something ridiculous like 34-1 on thursdays and UCLA has 3 senior starters who have beeen to the final 4 the last 3 years.

Utah's a tough game to pick.

I like Utah State a lot in the tourney. I don't think they can beat a powerhouse, but I think they can mop up the rank and file tourney teams.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 28, 2009 8:09 am 
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PhillipMG wrote:
My Final Four is UNC, PITT, Memphis, and UConn.



Your bracket is looking a lot better than mine... ;)

Note to self, pitino is now 10-0 in the opening game of week 2 of the tourney. Remember to go with tourney coaches & better teams in the opening round of the second weekend next time.

next year I am going to try and limit my upset picks by round to conform with historical upset percentages by round. I thought I was conservative with my upset picks this year, but apparently I was not.

I will have a good braket once before I retire from bracketology.


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