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 Post subject: Going Undefeated?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 10:54 am 
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gO uTeS, Thanks for your post! I agree that Illinois has had an easy schedule, which has helped keep them undefeated, but doesn’t prepare them well for the tournament (the March to the Arch). Their strength of schedule per RPIRatings.com (http://www.rpiratings.com/mensrpi.html ) through last Sunday’s games was 63.

Part of Illinois’ low schedule ranking is due to the Big Ten being down again this year. The Big Ten conference is ranked sixth (listed at the bottom of the web page http://www.rpiratings.com/mensrpi.html ), behind all of the other BCS football conferences. Part of this has to due with playing some fairly big name schools that haven’t performed well: Oregon (@ Chicago), Missouri (@ St. Louis), Georgetown (@ DC) and Arkansas (@ Little Rock). I also heard that Oklahoma St. (RPI rank 5) backed out of the Las Vegas Holiday Classic.

Illinois has quality wins against Wake Forest (@ Home, RPI rank 2), Gonzaga (@ Indianapolis, RPI rank 11), Wisconsin (@ Madison, RPI rank 18), Michigan St. (@ East Lancing, RPI rank 19), and Cincinnati (@ Las Vegas, RPI rank 23).


Last edited by cybercat on Thu Feb 10, 2005 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Going Undefeated?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2005 1:40 pm 
ok, well you have proved my point but you have also answered some of my questions....... it seems as if they do have some quality wins, gonzaga, at wisconson, and wake (home), but the big ten this year seems really weak, wisconson is tough, but again at home, i think that illinois will finish the regular season undefeated, but will lose in the big ten tourney... illinois biggest weakness though, is size, they have three of the best guards in the nation, but i think their big men need to step it up.. they need an andrew bogut down in the middle, and i would have to say, that they would have a very good chance to win it all and go undefeated throughout the entire year... what do u think about the utes (15-0) in the last 15 games and now have the second longest winning streak in the nation, next to illinois?


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 Post subject: Going Undefeated?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 14, 2005 11:33 am 
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Quote:
what do u think about the utes (15-0) in the last 15 games and now have the second longest winning streak in the nation, next to illinois?
gO uTeS, IMO any team that gets hot at the end of the season has a chance to go far in the tournament. Any team that has a quality big man has an advantage, as they are in such short supply.

Basketball is a momentium sport. With the right seeding and a few breaks Utah could go a long way. Although, as you mentioned, they don't have any top 25 wins and their strength of schedule is currently listed as 134 (http://www.rpiratings.com/mensrpi.html).


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 Post subject: Going Undefeated?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 14, 2005 6:53 pm 
Cybercat, that is very true about the strength of schedule, but they lost two close ones at Arizona and against Washington in the Great Alaskan Shootout, but the Utes have played team like Coppin State who hurt their schedule. I think though that in the end it might help them because they palyed two tough teams (the only good teams in the Pac 10) played them well, which let them see what real teams and conferences are and beating the weak teams will also help them because they have a new coach and win is a win and wins boost the confidence of not only the team but of the coach. It also helped them understand their new system and helped them adjust to the new coach.
Yet again, the Utes won their 16th straight game, going into tonight, beating CSU, where the big man (bogut) posted 33 and 16, just and average night on the job, don't you think???


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 Post subject: Going Undefeated?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:06 am 
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Some more numbers regarding going undefeated in the following article.

The two Ls in Illini are enough
By Mike DeCourcy - SportingNews
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab;_ylc=X3oDMTBpNmdsNnA1BF9TAzk1ODYxOTQ4BHNlYwN0bg--


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 Post subject: Going Undefeated?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:21 pm 
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Why hasn't there been an undefeated NC since 1976? Following are a list of rule changes and some random thoughts from another board / me.

* Rule changes – 3 point shot:
- The three-point field goal is introduced and set at 19 feet 9 inches from the center of the basket (1986-87).
- The three point shot is nicknamed the great equalizer, and Vitale prattles on about it for good reason.
- Look back to the era before the arc, teams that won titles were loaded with centers and forwards, the guards weren't as perimeter-oriented as they are now, (they still could shoot from outside back then), but the guards back then were brought in more for ball handling, running the offense to get the ball inside, and pressure defense.
- What you have now are teams that have three or more players who can shoot from the arc and when they are on, they can beat just about anyone.

* Rule changes – shoot clock:
- The 45-second clock is introduced. The team in control of the ball must now shoot for a goal within 45 seconds after it attains team control (1985-86).
- The shot clock is reduced to 35 seconds from 45. The team in control of the ball must shoot for a goal within 35 seconds after it gains team control (1993-94).
- A team can no long slow the game down completely.

* Rule changes – alternate positions instead of jump ball:
- The jump ball is used only at the beginning of the game and the start of each overtime. An alternating arrow will indicate possession in jump-ball situations during the game (1981-82).
- When the closely guarded five-second count is reached, it is no longer a jump-ball situation. It is a violation, and the ball is awarded to the defensive team out of bounds (1982-83).
- This is important because being good at getting a jump ball no longer has a big advantage.

* Rule changes -- fouls
- Each intentional personal foul carries a two-shot penalty plus possession of the ball (1987-88).
- Three free throws are awarded when a shooter is fouled during an unsuccessful three-point try (1990-91).
- Games were called much tighter so truly superstar post players could really dominate a game (more so than now).

* Big men leaving early or skipping college:
- In 1974, Moses Malone was drafted by Utah (ABA) directly out of high school.
- A lot more money can be made today by going to the NBA today.
- Teams would be together for 3-4 years. Nowadays even the best teams are working underclassmen into their lineups, providing more chances for early season upsets.

* Less scholarships / More parity:
- In the 1970’s there really were just a few elite teams. Those teams had more scholarships and could stockpile players.
- There are a lot more good players now than in 1976. Recruiting is very competitive, and players want PT as freshmen.
- There are more good players out there now then they used to be, so more teams can on any given night have a chance to upset you.

* TV coverage and analysis:
- There is better scouting of teams because of more TV coverage
- NCAA basketball and its TV coverage has become a big business.
- Another factor is the huge increase in TV revenue. Teams schedule many more marquee non-conference games than before.
- These kids are 18-22 years old. Look at the media attention the Illini get now and think how that will increase tenfold if they go into the tourney undefeated. That's a lot of pressure to put on kids, expecting perfection.

* More games:
- Indiana in 1976 was 32-0. Illinois would need to go 39-0 to do it. That's seven more games. Seven more chances to lose.
- In college football, you frequently have National Championship with one loss and they only play 11 or 12 games. Winning 35+ games in a row is incredibly tough.
- A team that had a 98.2384% chance of winning each of their 39 games would only have a 50% chance of winning them all.
- In 1985, the NCAA Tourney went to 64 teams. Winning six in a row in the Big Dance after going undefeated through the regular season is very tough.
- When only one team per league could make it the big dance, many good teams were left at home watching.
- With the Big Ten tournament (1998), you have to win 16 + 3 games against B10 opposition instead of just 18 B10 games before the BTT. In addition, depending on how the "play once" games worked out, you might end up playing one of the better teams 3 times instead of just twice. Wisconsin and Michigan State a few years ago played four times, twice in the regular season, once in the Big Ten tournament and once in the final four.


Last edited by cybercat on Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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