UL-Monroe will not make it they belong in the Southland.

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I'm not talking about the ULM Indians... I'm talking about the UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns.

Ever since Randy Moss hit the radar, Marshall has had more media mention and exposure than any other non-BCS school. That makes them a possibility for any league wanted that piece of the Sportscenter pie.

No matter the facts on the field, TV rules all...

This is spectacular grid and an incredible analysis of what the possible realignment of college conferences may be.

But I do have a comment on one element that seems to be missing for consideration of college sports conference realignment, especially with the major (BCS-like) conferences. Academic reputation of the school and similarities with the institutions that are already members of a certain conference play a role in realignment too.

For instance, you mention Fresno State and San Diego State as "possible" or "longshot" members of the Pac 10 or what would become the Pac 12.

I think there is either a conscience or sub-conscience interest of the Pac 10 to always be thought of the West Coast equivalent of the Big 10, since they meet up every year (or at least 3 out of 4 years) in the Rose Bowl and have that long tradition.

When you look at major conferences with a strong academic reputation and tradition, certainly the Ivy League is number 1 in this realm. The Big 10 would be number 2 believe it or not. The Ivy League years and years ago was called the Eastern Conference and the Big 10 was called the Western Conference. That's why when you hear the Michigan fight song, they sing "Champions of the west", because it is the champion of the western conference opposite of the Eastern Conference, the Ivy League.

After the Big 10, number 3 would be the ACC, even with Miami and VT added, then the Pac 10, then the Big XII, Big East and SEC are all kinda tied for the final spot. I draw these rankings from the U.S. News and World Report rankings of Colleges and Universities (2004 edition) with repect to how many 1st Tier National Universities (ranked #1 - 50), 2nd Tier National Universities (ranked #51-126), 3rd Tier National Universities (ranked #127-190), and 4th Tier National Universities (ranked #191 +) that are contained in each conference. With that, here are the Ivy League and the 6 BCS conferences ranked with their 1st Tier, 2nd Tier, 3rd Tier, and 4th Tier make up:

Ivy League: All 8 members (Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, Pennsylvania, Princeton, and Yale) are 1st Tier National Universities (all are ranked in the top 17 National Universities -- clearly the top academic conference).

Big Ten:

6 - 1st Tier National Universities
Northwestern,
Univ of Chicago* (one of the original athletic members that left the conference athletically in 1948 but remains tied to the Big 10 schools through an academic alliance),
Michigan,
Wisconsin,
Illinois,
Penn State,

6 - 2nd Tier National Universities
Iowa,
Purdue,
Minnesota,
Indiana,
Ohio State,
Michigan State

ACC (including Miami an VT):

5 - 1st Tier Universities
Duke
Virginia
North Carolina
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech

6 -- 2nd Tier Universities
Maryland
Miami
Virginia Tech
North Carolina State
Clemson
Florida State

Pac 10:

5 -- 1st Tier National Universities
Stanford
California
UCLA
USC
Washington

3 -- 2nd Tier National Universities
Arizona
Washington State
Oregon

2 -- 3rd Tier National Universities
Arizona State
Oregon State

Big XII:

0 -- 1st Tier National Universities

9 -- 2nd Tier National Universities
Texas
Texas A & M
Missouri
Baylor
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Nebraska
Oklahoma

3 -- 3rd Tier National Universities
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech

SEC:

2 -- 1st Tier National Universities
Vanderbilt
Florida

6 -- 2nd Tier National Universities
Georgia
Tennessee
Auburn
Alabama
Kentucky
South Carolina

4 -- 3rd Tier National Universities
Louisiana State
Mississippi
Arkansas
Mississippi State

Big East (excluding Miami, VT and Temple, including UConn):

1 -- 1st Tier National University
Boston College (strong candidate for ACC)

4 -- 2nd Tier National Universities
Syracuse
Rutgers
Connecticut
Pittsburgh

1 -- 3rd Tier National University (currently)
West Virginia
(Cincinnati -- a strongly mentioned candidate is also in this category)
(Temple -- who is leaving the Big East after 2004 is also in this category)
(South Florida and Southern Mississippi are also is in this category)

0 -- 4th Tier National Universities (currently)
(Louisville -- a strongly mentioned candidate for the Big East is in this category)
(Central Florida and East Carolina are also in this category)

**Marshall University is not even a National University, it is considered a 2nd Tier Southern Master's University (formerly called regional universities).

BCS Equivalent Independent:

1 -- 1st Tier National University
Norte Dame

Mountain West:

0 -- 1st Tier National Universities

3 -- 2nd Tier National Universities
Brigham Young
Utah
Colorado State

2 -- 3rd Tier National Universities
New Mexico
Wyoming

2 -- 4th Tier National Universities
San Diego State
UNLV

1 -- Armed Forces Academy (special category)
Air Force

Conference USA (excluding Army):

1 -- 1st Tier National University
Tulane

1 -- 2nd Tier National University
TCU

5 -- 3rd Tier National Universities
South Florida
Cincinnati
East Carolina
UAB
Southern Mississippi

3 -- 4th Tier National Universities
Louisville
Memphis
Houston

WAC:

1 -- 1st Tier National University
Rice

2 -- 2nd National Universities
SMU
Tulsa

2 -- 3rd Tier National Universities
Hawaii
Nevada

2 -- 4th Tier National Universities
UTEP
Louisiana Tech

3 -- 2nd Tier Western Master's (Regional) Universities
San Jose State
Fresno State
Boise State

MAC:

0 -- 1st Tier National Universities

2 -- 2nd Tier National Universities
Miami, OH
Ohio U.

4 -- 3rd Tier National Universities
Ball State
Bowling Green
Buffalo (SUNY system)
Western Michigan

6 -- 4th Tier National Universities
Akron
Central Florida
Central Michigan
Kent State
Northern Illinois
Toledo

1 -- 2nd Tier Southern Master's (Regional) University
Marshall

1 -- 3rd Tier Midwestern Master's (Regional) University
Eastern Michigan

Sun Belt (Including Troy State):

0 -- 1st Tier National Universities

0 -- 2nd Tier National Universities

3 -- 3rd Tier National Universities
Idaho
New Mexico State
Utah State

3 -- 4th Tier National Universities
Middle Tennessee State
Louisiana-Lafayette
North Texas

1 -- 2nd Tier Southern Master's (Regional) University
Troy State

1 -- 3rd Tier Southern Master's (Regional) University
Arkansas State

1 -- 4th Tier Southern Master's (Regional) University
Louisiana-Monroe

Other Indedpendents (including Army):

2 -- Armed Forces Academy (special category)
Army
Navy

So as you can see, none of the 6 BCS conferences have a member that is lower than 3rd Tier National Universities, and none of those conferences have members from non-National Universities (Master's/Regional). All the BCS conferences contain members that are National Universities (no lower than the 3rd tier and only currently only 10 of these 63 schools are 3rd Tier, the remaining 53 schools are either 1st or 2nd Tier). No 4th Tier National Universities are currently members of a BCS conference (could change if Louisville, UCF, ECU, or Marshall join the Big East). These school are major research institutions, some are historically the oldest university in the state they are located in, some are 1862 Morrill Act -- Land Grant institutions, and some have Law Schools, Medical Schools, and all offer a wide array of Doctorate degrees as their highest degree offered.

...So academic reputation does matter in major college sports affiliation and alignment.

Thus, Fresno State wouldn't fit the Pac 10's strong academic reputation and tradition, with 10 major research institutions, a branch of the Cal State U system, as what Fresno State is, and it offering very limited Doctorate degree's (hence it a Western Master's University) wouldn't fit into the Pac 10, despite being a strong athletic school.

San Diego State also wouldn't fit into the Pac 10 for the same reasons, its a 4th Tier National University.

I think Utah (which is actually higher ranked academically compared to 3 current Pac 10 universities -- Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona State) would be the best fit, then Brigham Young (another 2nd Tier University better than the same 3 Pac 10 schools plus also Washington State) would be the best fit provided the Sunday issue could be overcome. Its too bad the University of Nevada wasn't a bit better academically and athletically and had a little more market population (although Reno has 400,000 people), cause geographically it would fit better. UNLV is a 4th Tier school -- its too bad it wasn't at least a 3rd Tier like Nevada is, cause it fits geographically better as well.

UTEP wouldn't fit into the Big XII, as you mentioned as a possibility or a long shot. Its a 4th Tier National University. The lowest the Big XII goes is 3rd Tier and 75% of the schools are 2nd Tier. I think TCU, Arkansas, and New Mexico would be best for the south division if it needed to expand or needed a new member, and Colorado State would be best if the northern division needed to expand or needed a new member.

Louisville is probably going to break this 63 team 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Tier tradition of the BCS schools, as it will be the only 4th Tier National University in a BCS conference if it joins the Big East. Cincinnnati is a 3rd Tier University.

Yes, fan following, market size, and athletic traditon play a major role in conference affiliation, but so does academic reputation, tradition, and similarities. Its not like you can split these schools up into divisions like the NFL. Academic affiliation plays a role too.

Wow, simply outstanding analysis and data, underdog, we are indebted to you.

Academic reputation does matter very much in the major BCS conferences. The faculty and administrators like to feel that when they travel to peer institutions to hobnob, confer, deliver papers, consult, etc, they will be addressing similar problems related to their depth of academic expertise, similar size of budget problems, similar political machinations, etc.

Its not only the athletic dog that wags the tail of prospective conference membership in major conferences. The more established the conference, the more influential the academic guidance and direction from the top becomes.

Thanks again, underdog...

:D

Nicely done, underdog. My previous discussion with the US News rankings drew a lot of criticism, but I think we all realize that it serves at least as a fair apples-to-apples measuring stick for demonstrating how academics plays a role. Allow me to add some more points:

- Like many others, I feel that there will be more conferences and schools added to the BCS mix, so while there will still be a direct relation between BCS membership and academic reputation (or Tier ranking), it will not be as strong. Could be interesting to use this comparison in marking the difference between 1-A, 1-AA and D2 schools, however.

- It could be argued that many schools have bolstered their academic presence via the popularity and image of their athletic programs. Even I don't chide UGA as much as I could used to out of respect for the strides they've made as an actual college.

- The times, they are a changing. And given the power behind collegiate sports and how student-athletes ain't what they used to be, it's possible that future affiliations will evolve that place slightly less emphasis on the academic criteria, or at least different aspects of academics. ("We may not share popular majors and research fields, but your kids graduate so hop aboard.") We've also shown on this board how size and character play a large part in this equation of conference affiliation. Clearly the Big 10 schools share common midwestern cultural traits, and exhibit more urban ties than, say the Big 12 schools. Such shared traits may compensate for academic differences.

- There's something to be said about a conference's permanence, as well. The SEC, ACC, Pac 10 and Big 10 have all been around for greater than 50 years (I believe). And while the Big 12 is a relative youngster, its predecessors in the Big 8 and the SWC shared similarly austere histories. Again, there may not be a direct correlation between BCS/big time sports and how old a conference is, but there appears to be A relationship between longevity/continuity and program success. Call it name recognition, branding, building fan support, etc.


What will be fun is looking at all these factors after the realignment wars are over! ;)

underdog, My thanks as well for your outstanding post!!! ;D I have used your US News & World Report data to create an additional map, which is posted at: http://collegesportsinfo/forum/viewtopic.php?t=60&action=display&start=37

Will we see an updated grid soon? Where do things stand as of this moment?

With Marshall committing to CUSA, I am guessing that USF will definitely be the team to go the Big East. I am unsure about UCF.

I know one of the 2 Florida schools doesn't like the acronym above but I can't remember which one.

OK King.

Try this one on. It seems the main reason for all these conference switches is to gain seats in the 4 major BCS bowl games, hence the BCS is the monster here. So do you remember the countless number of days that there were the four important New Years Day bowl games. They included the Orange, Sugar, Rose and the Cotton. Well the BCS mucked it up by adding the Fiesta. So what if there was another bowl game added to the BCS package like the Cotton Bowl again. That way each of the conferences would get a fair share, as well as some good match ups as well. Their are like or not more conferences than ( the ACC, BE, SEC, Pac 10, Big 10 and the Big 12). All though it is true, they are the one that set the standards on the playing field, we must not over look the others. example in the past Marshall has had to settle with some crappy bowl when they could have competed with any one of the teams from these conferences. By adding an additional BCS bowl, maybe some of the gouching of other conferences will stop.

Grid has been updated as of 11/12/03

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Well, to give a slight correction to underdog's post, the USNN College Rankings aren't based on actual academics, it's solely based on admissions standards (IE how tough it is to get into the school), and on SAT scores of incoming freshmen. While many of the schools ranked in top-tier status are top-notch academic schools, many schools that are ranked 3rd-4th-5th tiers are actuall academically superior to schools that are ranked higher. I know it's not per se easy to get a side-by-side comparison of schools, but the USNN reports are misleading and have absolutely nothing to do with integrity, and are not an accurate source of information.

With that said, EXCELLENT job on the grid!

It also could be said that Miami is not going to get a bowl worthy of the season that they just concluded. In my opinion definitely a top ten team. No better team in Ohio, and there are some good ones.

KingCal -
When will the NEW update take place? December-January at the earliest.

As a Mountain West guy, I'm hoping Wyoming survives, which I think they will. Joe Glenn will get those keesters in the seats in Laramie and help them stay in I-A and in the MWC.

Amen to that, MWCChicago.

Just need to add FAU and FIU for the Sunbelt. Other than that, it's just waiting for the MWC to make a move.

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