The Big East will definitely split. The 8 football schools will start their own conference, with a new commissioner. They are looking for a ninth member to join them, but no one really knows who that will be. Going by what we do know, here's what I see:
Pittsburgh-WVU= travel partners; UConn-Rutgers-Syracuse=travel partners; Louisville-Cincy=travel partners; South Florida=no travel partner. This is why the football schools would like nine members. Though somewhat unwieldy, you can make Connecticut, Rutgers, and Syracuse all travel partners because all of them are pretty much in close proximity to each other. (Think Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota) However, no matter how you slice it, South Florida has no one. And while Louisville and Cincy wouldn't mind having Memphis back as a conference partner, Memphis just makes for a very poor fit with South Florida. There are two schools that would be decent fits for South Florida right now: UCF, which is already in a "arms race" with South Florida right now, and East Carolina, who helped sponsor South Florida's admission to C-USA's football conference back when S. Florida was still an independent. The Big East didn't learn its lesson on travel partners the last NCAA realignment movement, so I expect the football schools will pay closer attention to it this time around. When you factor in the fact that the Big East will be eliminating partial qualifiers, that just makes UCF and ECU that much more attractive, since both don't go after too many partial qualifiers, if any, unlike Memphis. The wildcard in all of this is Villanova, which, from everything I've seen, seems to be weighing its options very carefully. If 'Nova does upgrade to I-A before the split, they will get a Big East football invite. It is guaranteed. After the split, the guarantee will be useless, and 'Nova's window of opportunity is closing very quickly. IMO, if 'Nova does join, look for them to be a tenth member in the new conference the Big East football schools will be creating, because South Florida will still need a travel partner even with 'Nova joining. A darkhorse in this entire scenario is Florida Atlantic, which could be a major player when the split happens. Notre Dame is a huge question mark.
(*=indicates a possible member)
Eastern Athletic Conference:
WVU, Louisville, UConn, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Cincinnati, *UCF/*ECU/*FAU/*ND(all-sports), *Villanova
Big East Conference
St. John's, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Providence, Marquette, Depaul,*Villanova/ *Holy Cross, *Xavier
C-USA will have to wait and see who Eastern Athletic Conference will take, if they take anyone at all. The best scenario C-USA can hope for is if the EAC decides to take UCF. C-USA can then swoop down and take either Florida Atlantic or Florida International which would replace UCF a lot better than the teams C-USA would have to replace an East Carolina or a Memphis with, though I can see Ohio University being a possible player in all of this if East Carolina is selected.
This means that the Sunbelt or the MAC could get realigned. I don't know who the MAC would take, if they even take anyone. The Sunbelt will probably try to replace FAU/FIU with another Florida program. Maybe Florida A&M will be ready this time around, or Bethune-Cookman will be an option.