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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2004 4:19 pm 
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1. Which conference will be the next to add a team?
C-USA.

2. Which will be the next to lose one?
MAC.

3. Which team will move? Or will a team move or down?
Toledo and/or Miami-Ohio.

4. What bowl will get the 5th BCS spot?
Cotton.

5. How many times in the first cycle will a team not currently in the BCS get a bid?
They won't. Cowen was an idiot for calling this a victory.

6. Will the new BE be able to keep its bid, or will the "BE rule" finally catch up with them?
They'll keep their bid. Status Quo reigns.


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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2004 5:31 pm 
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1. CUSA
This is a "no-brainer"...It's the who that is the hard part.
I will follow the La.Tech to CUSA and Idaho to the WAC group...which means
2/3. WAC loses Idaho
The WAC has to have 9 teams or they risk the danger of becoming the SunBelt West.
4. I'll go with Orlando...probably the Citrus Bowl
5. Once every three years for the Non-BCS, but only because the BigEast will drop the standard to top 16.
6. The BigEast will be propped up by the other 5 conferences, which means the qualifications may be amended, and the BigEast rule will be tweaked at some point. The Orlando choice will support this move.

Other predictions...Bowls will move back towards a designated conference tie-in except for BCS champions game. At large teams will fill out the spots of the non-tied teams. This will be to accomodate the Rose Bowl who will not tolerate being forced to take non-big 10/pac-10 teams.
BigEast basketball will split out by 2007-08 into football/basketball. A-10 Catholic schools will follow BigEast Catholic schools for super Catholic league in the East. It will be a top 8 NCAA league every year!
8-)


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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Sat Mar 20, 2004 9:36 am 
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I know that I am not answering my own questions. I will predict what I feel confident about. I am making my predictions under the assumption that Congress will NOT get involved. If they do, all bets are off.

Prediction #1. The 15k attendance rule will be enforced. The SBC, WAC and MAC will try to soften its impact, and they will be successful to some extent. However, it will still have enough teeth to bump a few schools down to 1AA.

Reason: The revenue stream from TV and bowls is not going up very fast. With more schools sharing the same pie, there will be less for everyone. This includes the small schools wanting more, as well as the big schools that want to keep what they have. The door needs to be shut on schools moving up to 1A. This leads to:

Bold prediction (guess)#1. The NCAA will require 1AA schools to average 15K in order to move up to 1A.
Bold prediction #2. The number of 1A schools in 2010 will be between 110-115.

This last one could be off by a dozen either way.

Prediction #2. With the ACC gaining two schools that are normally bowl eligible, they will get at least one more bowl tie in.

Prediction #3. With the BE losing two of its best teams, the ACC new bowl will ultimately come at the expense of the BE. It probably will not be a direct shift. There could be several bowls change alliances. However, when all is said and done, the BE's bowl line up will be weaker, with smaller pay outs. The conferences below the BE may suffer as well, since they could lose a bowl to the BE.

Guarantee #1. There will more to talk about on this board!

Fbfan

Lash,
I know that you will not be happy with Prediction #3, but I was not trying to offend you. I would like to hear your take.

P.S. Has anyone spoken to Javaman or FBG? I have not


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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Sat Mar 20, 2004 3:45 pm 
JAVAMAN AND FBG ARE OFF IN ACAPULCO, AN ALL PAID TRIP SPONSORED BY THIS GUNNER GUY ;D!


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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Mon Mar 22, 2004 9:28 am 
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If I could swing that, I'd be there with them! ;)

Program note, everyone, as my beloved Gunners will be on ESPN 2 this week! Two London clubs squaring off, with Chelsea hosting the first leg.

Wednesday, 3-24-04 @ 2:30 PM
European Champions League semi-finals
Arsenal vs. Chelsea

Victoria Concordia Crescit! Onward Arsenal!!


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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:36 pm 
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FBfan, this is the only time of the year that college basketball takes priority over college football. So it has taken a while to get back to you. Not sure I understand you question on ACC taking BE bowls? The current BE bowl alignment has 1) BCS automatic bid 2) Gator ACC is already in this bowl alignment 3) Insight Bowl and Phoenix is happy with BE/Pac 10 matchup 4) Tire Bowl and ACC is already in this bowl alignment 5) replacemet for Walnut Bowl not identified at this point.

The ACC will need to have a miniumum of 7 bowls and the BE will need a miniumum of 5 to allow for the majority of the teams to reach a bowl game. The ACC probably needs 8 due to number of teams that will most likely qualify for bowls.

Something to think about. Could the planned new stadium in Manhattan for the Jets host the fifth BCS bowl game. If not a new NYC bowl could be established to host the BE runner up team or Notre Dame that did not reach the BCS.

Now for the predictions:

1. Which conference will be the next to add a team?

Most likely Conf USA, however, there is some mystery if Conf USA remained at 11 and could provide a lot of interest from various teams on which team could make the cut. Conf USA may be best served by dangling the carrot and creating expansion interest similiar to the continued rumors of Big 10 expansion to 12.

2. Which will be the next to lose one?

Toss up on WAC or MAC depending on Conf USA direction.

3. Which team will move? Or will a team move or down?

Possibly some MAC and the Sun Belt, however, the NCAA does not have a tract record on moving teams down. So probably no team will be forced to move to 1AA.

4. What bowl will get the 5th BCS spot?

Going out on limb on this prediction. Proposed new stadium in NYC for the Jets would make a great fifth BCS bowl. This would provide more marketing ability for the BCS and allow a regular New Years Eve BCS night game. Watch the football game and stroll over to time square for the dropping of the ball. NYC is fantastic during the holidays and the BE winner could serve as the host team in years the BE winner did not play in the title game or the NYC bowl hosted the title game and the BE was not one of the two teams playing for the title. If not NYC bowl, then, Cotton bowl would be my prediction as the fifth bowl since Florida already has one BCS bowl.

5. How many times in the first cycle will a team not currently in the BCS get a bid? hate to say it but probably none! Hope this prediction is incorrect.

6. Will the new BE be able to keep its bid, or will the "BE rule" finally catch up with them? Never and repeat never. The BCS will never kick out the BE. Besides my prediction is a BE team will challege for the BCS title within the next four years or sooner and the BCS rule (correction it is not the BE rule) is irrelevant for the BE.





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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2004 7:11 am 
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cusa will be next.... WAC will lose......la tech....no more than 2 will get a bid over the next 5 years... my guess would 1 or none.....the BE will not qualify to keep its bid... question is whether they will lose it... I dont think so. .........


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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2004 8:52 am 
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I don't usually predict, but I will agree with the CUSA expansion of one with La Tech beign the most likely candidate. If that is true then the WAC loses a team and must consider one more. I believe 1-AA will add some teams but maybe not right away. I like the Citrus Bowl?Capital One getting the 5th BCS bowl and I thin the BE must really work hard to keep the automatic bid, and will most likely lose it when the next round is held. I will be very surprised if a non-BCS school gets a BCS bowl more than every other year. Even a 10-1 MWC champ may not be ranked in the top 12. Scheduling will become more and more important and with larger conferences like the new ACC squeezing out the non-bcs teams. I believe the non-conference schedule will become watered down. We don't want to face Florida State, Miami, Va Tech, the rest of the ACC and then some tough non-conf team, and if a WAC/CUSA team is scheduled it definitely is not ever on the road. The way the BCS will control the system is through the tough SOS in conference. IF you go 6-2 in the new ACC and 3-0 non-conf, you are probably Top 12 at 9-2 in the current system.


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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2004 2:20 pm 
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Quote:
I don't usually predict, but I will agree with the CUSA expansion of one with La Tech beign the most likely candidate. If that is true then the WAC loses a team and must consider one more. I believe 1-AA will add some teams but maybe not right away. I like the Citrus Bowl?Capital One getting the 5th BCS bowl and I thin the BE must really work hard to keep the automatic bid, and will most likely lose it when the next round is held. I will be very surprised if a non-BCS school gets a BCS bowl more than every other year. Even a 10-1 MWC champ may not be ranked in the top 12. Scheduling will become more and more important and with larger conferences like the new ACC squeezing out the non-bcs teams. I believe the non-conference schedule will become watered down. We don't want to face Florida State, Miami, Va Tech, the rest of the ACC and then some tough non-conf team, and if a WAC/CUSA team is scheduled it definitely is not ever on the road. The way the BCS will control the system is through the tough SOS in conference. IF you go 6-2 in the new ACC and 3-0 non-conf, you are probably Top 12 at 9-2 in the current system.


I don't follow. How can the BCS teams arrange easier OOC schedules (I agree with that) and "squeeze out" the non-BCS, or easier teams?


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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2004 3:29 pm 
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Westwolf,
I think what Statepackman meant was that the BCS schools would schedule an easier ooc (which you agreed with) and that would prevent the better non-BCS schools from having enough sos to reach the top 12. Righ now, Marshall has 1 or 2 games scheduled against TN. If they go undefeated in C-USA and beat TN, they will probably be in the top 10. However, if a Tulane goes undefeated, but does not play anyone in the top 40, they probably won't make the top 15 (much less top 12).

What is needed, is to somehow "encourage" top 20 BCS teams to play the better non-BCS teams. So far, :( no one has put forward a reasonable suggestion. :(

FBfan


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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2004 7:16 pm 
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Thanks, FBFan. The use of "better" non-BCS would have been, oh, better.


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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2004 9:42 am 

Quote:
Westwolf,
I think what Statepackman meant was that the BCS schools would schedule an easier ooc (which you agreed with) and that would prevent the better non-BCS schools from having enough sos to reach the top 12. Righ now, Marshall has 1 or 2 games scheduled against TN. If they go undefeated in C-USA and beat TN, they will probably be in the top 10. However, if a Tulane goes undefeated, but does not play anyone in the top 40, they probably won't make the top 15 (much less top 12).

What is needed, is to somehow "encourage" top 20 BCS teams to play the better non-BCS teams. So far, :( no one has put forward a reasonable suggestion. :(

FBfan

I realize this is off subject here, but on the subject of "encouraging" top 20 BCS team to play the better non-BCS teams, the only suggestion I have is to institute an RPI system like college basketball has. Not too sure how it would work in football though


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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2004 10:05 am 
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When you play three Top 10 teams in conference, you can then simply add three "easier" non-conference and get the W's you need. IT is a careful balance of wins and SOS that help you control the BCS rankings. SOS alone doesn't help you unless you put up a 9-2, 10-1 record. I believe a 9-2 ACC runner-up will be ranked higher in the BCS standings than a 10-1 CUSA champion every year. (Maybe even 8-3). Just my opinion.


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 Post subject: Predictions
PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2004 1:11 pm 
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I was going to put this idea on the "Wouldn't it be nice.." thread since it does not really apply to predictions. However, since the subject has turned this way...here goes.

If the BCS formula gave points* to beating a conference champ, then teams that saw themselves as being in the running would try to schedule teams that might be conference champs. Since beating the SBC champ would count as much as beating the SEC or Big 12 champ, teams would look at the better non BCS teams as an "easy" way to pick up points*.

Note. Since this would be voluntary, no school would feel upset at having their schedule dictated by someone else. Had this been in place for this cycle, Marshall would have been able to demand home and home series. Also, teams that don't really expect to play for the National Championship would still bottom feed, but they should. The worse problem would be when a team with a worse record jumped a "Better" team because of wins against the SBC and WAC champs.

*Since the BCS systems rewards having fewer points, the formula would really be negative points.

FBfan


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