FiniteWorkMan, I think most of that is way out in left field....
I threw out a bunch of these scenarios just to peak interest and help people get started thinking about what they think will start the next tremor. I would think things like ND joining the ACC or even the Big East are pretty darned long shots, but I put them out there to hopefully spur someone to post thier own thoughts.
These aren't necessarily my opinions ---I haven't stated them as such --- and as such, I don't really feel like I have to defend them, they are simply put out there to hopefully inspire people to make their own guesses about where the next shift comes from.
[Now I do have some opinions/predictions, but they are again only part of what I am after in this threat. Maybe I will work out a prediction chronology that I will post. If I can, I will; but at this point, these are just loose thoughts (although strongly held ones) that I am not going to debate yet:
I think TV money will be an even bigger player in conference shifts. I think any school (with the exception of the gang of 5) that doesn't feel they are getting their fair share by 2009 will start the ball rolling to bail, regardless of all the other factors.
I think there has been a lot written that suggests the possibility of the next shift might occur around 2009-2011.
I have no idea what happens to ND. Maybe they stay independent.
I could see the SEC stealing Florida St. and Miami, because it makes too much financial sense. I don't know that they would boot the Mississippi schools because the SEC is all about tradition, but I sure would... :)
I think there will be a new SWC with Colorado, UT, A&M, Tech, OKl, and OKl. St. +?+? by 2015. If Colorado can be brought on board, the TV share per school would probably be the same (if not more) with or without the northern schools. I just can't see the Tex/OKl 5 putting up with being blocked on things for too long. Especially when there doesn't seem to be a point to accepting it.]
The above isn't really put out in a format I feel like discussing at this point, but I will try to put together my prediction on what will start the next shift in a discussable format for this thread. Right now I am leaning towards the SEC initiating the next shift.