Quick thoughts:

1. the SWC is dead and is not coming back, no matter how bad Texas historians/football traditionalists want it back. The SWC horse has beaten waaay beyond dead.

2. Two things will set off the next realignment wave: a) Big East breakup, b) Notre Dame joining a conference for all-sports including football. I'm thinking this will happen somewhere around 2010-2012.
FBfan, the school you refer to as SDSU, SNSU is actually SJSU. It is true that the Spartans have been having financial difficulties. They made an odd hire (odd concerning that SJSU normally goes for cheap as opposed to expensive coaches) in former Arizona coach thingy Tomey. And the move appears to have paid off because the SJSU website touts their recruiting class as first place in the WAC. If UC-Davis moves up to the WAC, I'm sure that SJSU will stick it out for the long haul even if Fresno State does eventually leave for the Mountain West. The other team in financial difficulty would be UL-Monroe, which I believe is still in the red. 2. Who knows? 3. Don't know.

D&Dfan, good points.

On the ole SWC matter, obviously that will never come back in the form it was previously. However, I can see the current C-USA transforming into a version of such. It has already shifted in that direction, and if the Big East took another school or so after a BE split, schools such as N. Texas, Arkansas State, and LA Tech could be added to another, revised version of C-USA. Of course the regional heavies, i. e. Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, etc. are gone from such a format for good.

Agree, a decision by Notre Dame and/or a Big East split with expansion would set off another wave of re-aligning. The SEC, Big 12, and the ACC may not change, but others could to certain degrees. I see the mid-major conferences near always subject to modifications from time to time.

You mentioned on another post about GA Southern moving up and being a rival to Troy. Certainly, south Georgia, compared to most regions, could handle another 1-A fb program and GA Southern has demonstrated some credentials if it chose to do so. Certainly they would be capable of competing in the Sunbelt or C-USA. In such cases, the dividing line between the better 1-AA teams of the Southern Conference, for example, and those of the Sunbelt, MAC, and even some in C-USA, are not so profound (examining attendance patterns, facilities, etc.). The biggest distinctions involve the number of scholarships allowed, and 15 more per year for a school such as GA Southern does not appear to be a huge obstacle.

On the other hand, a school has to decide if it wants to compete and be a dominant force in pursuing 1-AA championships, or face the reality that reaching the levels of the Georgias', Nebraskas', and Michigans' will be rare and a constant struggle.

I've said the SWC has a good chance of coming back in a good form if BYU and Utah leave the MWC. If they leave I dont see UNLV and San Diego St sticking around. The 5 remaining MWC members (New Mexico, Colorado St, Wyoming, Air Force, TCU) and 5 members of the CUSA West (Rice, SMU, Houston, UTEP, Tulsa) come together. If they want to go to 12 they have some options - (New Mexico St, North Texas etc.)

If East Carolina, Marshall, and UCF ever leave C-USA, and C-USA adds schools such as N. Texas, Arkansas State, and LA Tech, then C-USA would look very southwestern. UAB could end up as their eastern most school.
Several scenarios could happen, the above, hypothetically, could be just one of them. Much would have to do with future developments in the BE, SunBelt, WAC, and even possibly the MWC and MAC.

If the BE expanded of the 3 teams you mentioned UCF would probably be the one chosen. 2003 BE papers posted on this board showed that ECU and Marshall were no longer in consideration for the BE when the decision to stay status quo until 2010 was made at that time. UCF was offered FB only but refused. They would make a good travel partner for USF if they join in 2010.

Memphis is another candidate before ECU so both ECU and Marshall will be Cusa eastern partners with UAB for the foreseeable future. Marshall will be with UAB on the eastern front until Cusa breaks up or until they return to the MAC. West Virginia will likely block their entrance into the BE should a split and expansion happen. It would be a limited territorial thing.