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PostPosted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 3:24 am 

Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:05 am
Posts: 556
Location: Dallas
OK this is another format post that I hope will excite you guys about discussing the 2010-2013 next conference realignment domino drop.

The concept is that you identify the highest conference, school, individual, policy, revenue, or cost change that is the tumbler that starts the realignment.

From there respondents can say what they see happening. The idea is to try to be very realistic with your answers.

Don't have ND suddenly joining CUSA.
Don't have a team leaving the PAC 10.
Don't have a team volunteering to leave the Big 12 $ for a lesser conference --- now you can have them voted out if there is truly what you consider a convincing argument for it --- but the goal is to be as close as possible to what could happen.

This is not so much to develop fantasy threads of what you'd like to see, but more to develop consensuses of what would actually occur to maybe contribute a little more to Quinn's Grid.

Start with the orginating conference and show the ripples downward through lesser conferences as far as you care to go.

So for example, here are some factors that might be tumblers and how they might be presented.

"Tumbler thread...what happens if the new PAC 10 commissioner pushes expansion to 12?"

"Tumbler thread...what happens if ND joins the Big 10?"
(I know...done to death)

"Tumbler thread...what happens if Deloss Dodds decides UT isn't making enough in the Big 12?"

"Tumbler thread...what happens if the NCAA revokes the moritorium on upgrading and shortens the process (or conversely get sued into making it a ton easier to make the jump)?"

"Tumbler thread...What happens if the passing of low Def TV and the advent of High Def over wired and cabled networks leads to the death of Designated Market Areas as we know them?"

(A school like Lamar, for example is just outside of the Houston DMA. Does this help or hurt them? How does it affect conferences with their own networks? Will more conference networks come around, or is it an evolutionary dead end? High def TV signal could be delivered by internet providers --- if that happens how variable could their "markets" be? Today,a dvertisers have to pay to advertise to a lot of people who aren't going to watch the game. Tomorrow? A lot to think about... )

Tumbler thread... Oil is predicted to hit $200 a barrell and gas, $7 a gallon. If that is the case by 2010, how does that affect college football?

(Will we see a move among non-BCS conferences to 8 team conferences with tighter footprints? Will we see CUSA split over travel costs? Will we see schools who planned to upgrade back out over 30-50% increases in stadium building and upgrade costs? At what level (conference) would the costs start to pinch? Will struggling schools drop football over travel costs? Will the non-BCS schools force the NCAA to reduce home games by 1 and allow more games vs. FCS schools to cut travel budgets?)

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